The future of the auto service experience
 

The future of the auto service experience

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This is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of car servicing being driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond. ...

This is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of car servicing being driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond. Having gained some feedback and opinion from around the world on which of these shifts will have greatest impact, which will happen first and what is missing from this view we have added in some potential future scenarios for how the future shifts could change customer experiences and business models for dealers and workshops. Further comments on these thoughts are welcome and will be shared in a few weeks time

As with all futureagenda projects, the outputs will be openly shared for all to use as sources of insight and stimulus for innovation, strategy challenge and wider engagement.

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    The future of the auto service experience The future of the auto service experience Presentation Transcript

    • The  Future  of  The  Auto  Service  Experience   28  O  ct  2013  |  Tim  Jones  |  Charlie  Curson  
    • Ini:al  Views   Sector  Feedback   Poten:al  Scenarios   Overview   This  presenta:on  shares  some  views  on  trends  that  could  impact     auto  servicing  over  the  next  few  years.  It  includes  trends,  feedback     from  across  the  sector  and  some  poten:al  scenarios  for  the  future  
    • Ini7al  Views  
    • Sector   ShiOs   Adjacent   Changes   Macro   Trends   Star7ng  Point   An  ini:al  view  brought  together  a  number  of  different  perspec:ves     on  the  future  of  auto-­‐servicing  being  driven  by  poten:al  changes     within  the  sector,  in  adjacent  arenas  and  beyond.  This  follows.    
    • Shi>s  Within  The  Automo7ve  Industry  
    • Intelligent  Highways   Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connec:ons     deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,     increase  capacity  and  reduce  conges:on  
    • Autonomous  Vehicles   Led  by  urban  delivery  pods  and  long  distance  trucks,     the  rise  of  automa:cally  driven  vehicles  leads  to  the     reinven:on  of  the  travel  experience  around  infotainment  
    • Digital  Showrooms   Vehicle  selec:on  and  purchase  takes  place  on  the  high  street     and  in  shopping  malls  with  immersive  digital  experience     replacing  edge  of  town  physical  car  dealerships    
    • Smart  Cars   Every  vehicle  has  thousands  of  sensor-­‐connected  computers     that  collec:ve  provide  the  intelligent  car  able  to  monitor     itself,  its  environment  and  its  passengers    
    • Declining  Cost  of  Ownership   Increased  compe::on,  system  efficiency  and  more  open   pricing  leads  to  a  net  decline  in  the  ongoing  cost  of  ownership     of  a  vehicle  aOer  purchase  
    • Inclusive  Service  Plans   Customers  increasingly  have  their  first  three  years  servicing     included  within  as  a  fixed  price  the  purchase  or  lease  cost  of     their  vehicle  as  long  as  this  takes  place  at  a  dealer  
    • Smaller  Cars   More  crowded  urban  environments  and  the  drive     for  beVer  fuel  economy  reverse  the  trend  for  larger  cars     and,  especially  for  the  young  and  old,  smaller  is  beVer    
    • Pervasive  Leasing   Driven  by  a  combina:on  of  sustainability,  business  model     and  convenience  factors,  leasing  becomes  the  predominant     mode  of  new  vehicle  access  for  all  
    • Declining  DIY   Greater  product  complexity  and  more  sophis:cated     diagnos:c  equipment  makes  customer  ‘do  it  yourself’   servicing  almost  impossible  for  new  cars  
    • Electric  Car  Services   The  growth  in  electric  vehicles  brings  with  it  the  advent  of  a     completely  new  service  experience  with  clean  environments,     super  fast  diagnosis  and  plug  and  play  component  swap  
    • Convenient  Fast  Fit   Na:onal  fast-­‐fit  tyre,  service  and  retail  chains  extend     their  drive  in  service  support  for  low  complexity,     high  volume  wear  items  and  maintenance  ac:vi:es  
    • Every  Car  is  A  Node  in  the  Network   With  the  introduc:on  of  embedded  SIM  cards  in  every  new    vehicle,  all  cars  are  tracked  and  the  advent  of  the     connected  car  experience  is  accelerated  
    • Late  Customiza7on   Wider  personaliza:on  of  vehicles  is  enabled  by  the  shiO  of     op:on-­‐fit  from  manufacturer  to  dealer  and  opens  the  doors  to     new  owner  makeovers  when  cars  are  resold  second  hand  
    • Mobile  Servicing     Significant  growth  occurs  in  at-­‐home  or  at-­‐work  low  complexity     servicing  from  mobile  technicians  provided  via  roadside  assist   companies,  independents  and  dealer  networks  alike    
    • 20,000  Mile  Service  Intervals   All  new  cars  can  go  for  20,000  miles  or  two  years  between     services  due  to  universally  adopted  long-­‐life  products,     ubiquitous  diagnos:cs  and  greater  overall  vehicle  reliability  
    • Predic7ve  Remote  Maintenance   F1  and  satellite  technology  is  applied  at  scale  enabling  car     manufacturers  to  con:nuously  monitor  vehicles,  diagnose     any  future  faults  in  advance  and  remotely  update  soOware    
    • Drive  Thru  Servicing     With  pre-­‐arrival  diagnosis  the  norm,  drivers  opt  to  take  their     vehicles  to  loca:ons  able  to  do  a  full  service  in  30  minutes     while  they  have  a  coffee,  relax  and  browse  the  net  
    • Uninformed  Customers   As  efficiency  improves  and  automa:on  grows,  drivers  are     ignorant  of  how  vehicles  work  and,  especially  in  fast  growing   economies,  unaware  of  anything  under  the  bonnet  
    • Adjacent  Sector  Changes  That  Could  Have  Impact  
    • Dynamic  Pricing   Real-­‐:me  consump:on  paVerns  and  data  seamlessly  drive     the  marginal  value  of  products,  the  cost  of  access  for     adver:sing  and  the  underlying  cost  to  produce  
    • Personalized  Localized     Informa:on  is  con:nuously  updated  to  reflect  current     need  states  and  interests  of  the  individual  and     provided  for  seamless  cross-­‐pla`orm  consump:on  
    • Retail  Showrooms   Physical  retail  outlets  diverge  in  ac:vity  between  tradi:onal      stores  and  showrooms  where  we  browse  and  research     ahead  of  online  purchase  and  at-­‐home  delivery    
    • Perfectly  Informed  Consumers   BeVer  informa:on  of  cost,  quality,  benefit  and  availability     enables  consumers  to  set  the  right  price  for  products  and     services  and  buyers  pay  sellers  what  they  want    
    • Everything  Niche     Niche  becomes  the  mainstream  as  the  cost  to  connect  those     with  common  interests  drops  to  zero  and  more  of  us  can     pay  aVen:on  to  specialist,  tailored  long-­‐tail  needs  and  wants  
    • Transparent  Pricing   Consumers,  supply  chains  and  regulators  share  informa:on     openly  and  force  manufacturers  and  retailers  to  be  more     transparent  about  costs  and  accountable  for  errors  
    • Less  Variety   The  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice  but  not  less  interest  as     bricks  and  mortar  retailers  provide  an  increasingly  edited     por`olio  of  products  through  ever  more  efficient  channels  
    • Small  and  Distributed   Local  at  home  produc:on  matches  consump:on  with     3D  and  digital  scanning  and  prin:ng  providing  highly     efficient  and  good  quality  instant  physical  outputs  
    • Bridging  The  Last  Mile   The  need  to  make  public  transport  as  flexible  as  private   focuses  aVen:on  on  the  first  or  last  mile  between     mul:-­‐modal  hubs  and  the  home  /  work  des:na:on  
    • Access  Not  Ownership   Rising  sustainability  impera:ves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  all  shiO  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    
    • Redefining  Value   Consumers  want  to  par:cipate  in  value  crea:on,  shiOing  the     mindset  to  “made  with  me”  -­‐  Value  is  about  “shared  with  me”     as  the  ownerless  economy  expands    
    • Openly  Shared  Insight   Knowledge  is  nothing  if  not  freely  shared  as  value  crea:on  shiOs     from  insight  ownership  to  insight  use  and  applica:on  while     branded  and  local  sources  of  content  compete  to  share  
    • Mass  Customiza7on   Consumers’  expecta:ons  of  unique  and  bespoke  are  met     through  the  apparent  delivery  of  individual  combina:ons     drawn  from  choreographed  choice  architectures  
    • Macro  Trends  Impac7ng  Many  Sectors  
    • Ubiquitous  Data  Access   We  will  finally  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that     can  benefit  from  a  network  connec:on  will  have  one  and     everyone  will  have  access  to  the  mobile  internet  
    • Con7nuously  Earned  Trust   Inherited  and  historical  status  of  brands  and  icons  is  subsumed     into  a  world  where  trust  goes  to  the  most  credible  source     in  the  moment  and  many  fight  for  authen:city  
    • Ci7es  Not  Countries   Ci:es  are  more  important  than  countries  and  increasingly  set  the     standards  as  cultural  connec:ons  predominate  over  na:onal     iden::es  and  urban  markets  group  around  common  issues  
    • Internet  of  Things   Every  device  and  consumable  product  has  an  integrated     unique  IP  address  that  enables  everything  to  become  an     ac:ve  node  in  the  shared  network  
    • Peer  to  Peer  Networks   Recommenda:on  and  advice  shiOs  from  experts  to  the  crowd     as  peer  to  peer  networks  dominate  in  an  era  of  shiOing     trust  and  declining  respect  for  ins:tu:ons    
    • Adapta7on  to  Climate  Change   As  the  :me  to  impact  of  renewable  alterna:ves  becomes  clear,     the  world  recognizes  a  period  of  increased  planetary  stress  and   we  seek  to  beVer  adapt  to  more  extreme  weather  paVerns  
    • Almost  Zero  Waste   Escala:ng  waste  produc:on,  changing  aftudes  to  resources     alongside    new  approaches,  regula:on  and  business  models     lead  many  to  aim  for  the  almost  zero  waste  society  
    • Dense  Ci7es   As  urban  migra:on  increases,  efficient,  densely     populated  ci:es,  not  distributed  op:ons,  are  the     blueprints  for  more  sustainable  places  to  live    
    • All  Digi7zed   By  2020  all  the  world’s  informa:on  is  digi:zed,  storage  is  nearly     free  and  the  volume  of  data  in  the  world  is  doubling  monthly  –     we  can  all  access  the  21st  century  archive  
    • Sector  Feedback  
    • Gaining  Feedback   We  shared  the  ini:al  views  on  emerging  trends  for  feedback     from  around  the  world  –  on  which  may  have     greatest  impact  ,  which  could  happen  first  and  why.  
    • Trends  most  likely  to  happen   1.  Predic:ve  Remote  Maintenance   2.  Uninformed  Customers   3.  20,000  Mile  Service  Intervals   4.  Declining  Cost  of  Ownership   5.  Access  Not  Ownership   6.  Transparent  Pricing   7.  Mobile  Servicing   8.  Smart  Cars   9.  Retail  Showrooms   10.  Autonomous  Vehicles   Those  that  may  have  greatest  impact   1.  Transparent  Pricing   2.  Predic:ve  Remote  Maintenance   3.  Mobile  Servicing   4.  Retail  Showrooms   5.  Digital  Showrooms   6.  Uninformed  Customers   7.  Access  Not  Ownership   8.  Pervasive  Leasing   9.  Electric  Car  Services   10.  Inclusive  Service  Plans   Wider  Views   Feedback  from  car  manufacturers,  dealerships  and  industry   commentators  helped  to  priori:ze  the  trends  that  are  seen  to  be  most   likely  to  happen  first  and  those  that  could  have  greatest  impact  
    •         Poten7al  Scenarios  
    • 2020  -­‐  A  World  With:   Smart  cars   Everything   digi:zed     Electric  car   services   Inclusive  costs   Predic:ve  remote   maintenance   Pervasive  Leasing   Transparent   pricing   Uninformed   Customers   Smaller  cars   20,000  mile   services   The  2020  Perspec7ve   From  the  feedback,  it  is  clear  that,  sooner  or  later,  most  agree  that   technology  will  have  a  major  impact  on  the  service  experience  in   providing  a  more  connected,  efficient  and  simplified  landscape      
    • Small  and   Distributed   Large  and   Concentrated   But,  there  seems  to  be  two  dis:nct  ways  in  which  the  future     experience  can  be  delivered  that  have  different  implica:ons  for   customers  and  impacts  for  the  auto-­‐service  providers  
    • Small  and   Distributed   Large  and   Concentrated   Customer  Experience:   Local  and  personal   Mobile  servicing   Workshop  Impact:   More  flexible  approach   Less  frequent  foo`all   Fast  fit  whenever  possible   Cross-­‐brand  support   Convenient  loca:ons   Just-­‐in-­‐:me  stock  access   Mul:-­‐skilled  but  fewer  staff   Decoupled  from  retail   Value-­‐based  pricing   Best  price  parts  and  labor       Small  and  Distributed   In  the  ‘Small  and  Distributed’  scenario,  we  can  see  a  world  in  which   customer’s  vehicles  are  maintained  away  from  the  retail  space  where   and  when  they  wish  with  maximum  convenience  and  minimum  hassle    
    • Large  and   Concentrated   Customer  Experience:   Immersive  centers   Drive  thru  op:ons   Workshop  Impact:   Infotainment  experiences   Fast  priority  lanes   Digital  showrooms   Mul:-­‐brand  access   City-­‐center  /  mall  loca:ons   Smaller  forecourts   Mul:-­‐brand  rela:onships   Integrated  with  other  retail   Compe::ve  pricing   Best  price  parts  and  labor       Large  and  Concentrated   In  the  ‘Large  and  Concentrated’  scenario,  we  can  see  a  world  in  which   customer’s  vehicles  are  maintained  away  from  the  retail  space  where   and  when  they  wish  with  maximum  convenience  and  minimum  hassle    
    • With  all  the  data  openly  available,  how  quickly  can  the  customer  experience  be  reinvented?   What  new  approaches  can  be  adopted  to  unlock  new  sources  of  value  and  differen:a:on?   How  will  margins  be  impacted  by  more  transparent  pricing  and  greater  efficiency?   Will  the  control  balance  between  manufacturers,  dealers  and  workshops  have  to  change?   What  can  be  learnt  from  other  sectors  that  have  gone  through  similar  and  rapid  shiOs?   Five  Ques7ons   For  the  sector,  these  both  raise  a  number  of  key  ques:ons  for  the     future  –  primarily  around  the  speed  of  change  but  also  impac:ng     issues  such  as  control,  profitability  and  business  models  
    • The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   :m.jones@futureagenda.org