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The Future of Manufacturing   May 2011
 

The Future of Manufacturing May 2011

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A talk on emerging drivers of change that will impact manufacturing and signals from today that support this

A talk on emerging drivers of change that will impact manufacturing and signals from today that support this

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    The Future of Manufacturing   May 2011 The Future of Manufacturing May 2011 Presentation Transcript

    • Future  of  Manufacturing:  Emerging  Drivers  of  Change    Dr  Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director  -­‐  16  May  2011  
    • Future  Agenda   Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight   programme  that  ran  throughout  2010  and  engaged  expert   input  from  over  140  countries  to  gain  a  unique  global  view  
    • Today  we  are  using  a  few  of  these  to  sImulate  some   thoughts   Future  Agenda  Insights   52  insights  on  the  world  in  2020  across  six  key  areas  are    being  used  by  companies  around  the  world  –  some  of  these   insights  have  key  implicaIons  for  manufacturing  
    • Imbalanced  PopulaIon  Growth   CertainIes   By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,     most  in  places  least  able  to  accommodate  them  
    • Key  Resource  Constraints   CertainIes  We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poliIcal  shortages  of  key   materials  that  will  result  in  major  changes  in  perspecIves  
    • Asian  Wealth  ShiT   CertainIes   The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  is  shiTing    East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  
    • Ubiquitous  Data  Access   CertainIes   We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  network  connecIon  will  have  one  
    • Lease  Everything   Wealth   Rising  sustainability  imperaIves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  shiT  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    
    • AcIve  Elderly   Happiness   A  wealthier,  healthier  older  generaIon  increasingly     engage  in  more  acIve  lives,  having  extended  careers     and  becoming  more  poliIcally  involved  
    • Less  Energy   Wealth   Consumers  are  incenIvised  to  use  significantly     less  energy  as  escalaIng  growth  in  carbon  emissions     force  uIliIes  to  change  their  business  models  
    • Solar  Sunrise   Security   Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security     and  climate  change  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale     solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  
    • Water  Management     Security   Advanced  water  purificaIon,  irrigaIon  and  desalinaIon   technologies  are  used  to  help  communiIes  to   manage  the  rising  supply  /  demand  imbalance  
    • Corporate  LEGO   Security   With  more  free  agents  and  outsourcing,  non-­‐core     funcIons  within  organisaIons  are  interchangeable     and  easily  rebuilt  around  value-­‐creaIng  units    
    • Bridging  The  Last  Mile   Locality   The  need  to  make  public  transport  as  flexible  as  private   focuses  a^enIon  on  the  last  mile  between  mulI-­‐modal     hubs  and  the  home  /  work  desInaIon  
    • Future  of  Manufacturing:  Emerging  Drivers  of  Change   8  Key  Signals  and  Signposts  
    • AddiIve  Manufacture   Signal  #1   AddiIve  manufacture  has  grown  in  the  aerospace  sector     as  companies  seek  to  reduce  the  20:1  ‘buy  to  fly’  raIo  
    • AddiIve  Manufacture   Signal  #1   With  lower  capital  costs  this  is  now  going  increasingly   mainstream  and  replacing  tradiIonal  techniques  
    • 3D  Cladding   Signal  #2   In  the  construcIon  sector,  cast  and  3D  machined  cladding    is  opening  up  a  wide  range  of  design  opIons  
    • China  Sets  The  Standards   Signal  #3   In  a  fully  fla^ened  world,  where  IP  has  less  value,  China’s   domesIc  market  will  increasingly  set  the  global  standards  
    • Increasing  ProducIvity   Signal  #4  To  keep  up,  in  the  west  we  need  >double  producIvity  in  the  next  20  years  but  without  increasing  resource  consumpIon  
    • Intelligent  Factories   Signal  #5   Virtual  tools  increasingly  control  flexible  physical  tools    in  the  people-­‐free  programmable  shop  floor    
    • Late  CustomisaIon   Signal  #6   Further  separaIon  of  design  and  manufacture  allows  for   more  low  cost  complexity  especially  close  to  the  customer  
    • Late  CustomisaIon   Signal  #6   Distributed  assembly  and  access  to  simple  technology    will  provide  new  entrants  with  more  local  supply  opIons  
    • Supply  Webs   Signal  #7   Supply  webs  are  replacing  supply  chains  and  adopIng  the   principles  of  established  social  and  professional  networks  
    • Mobile  Factories   Signal  #8   New  soluIons  to  the  problem  of  connecIng  to  resources     and  the  market  are  being  trailed  in  some  key  sectors  
    • For  more  insights  and  free  e-­‐book  please  see  the  futureagenda  website   Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director     ?m.jones@futureagenda.org        +44  780  1755  054