Future Trends Presentation Tim Jones Ppt 97

Possibility vs. Probability Technology Futures: Identifying 20 Year Growth Opportunities Future Trends 2007, Miami Tim Jones – Principal, Innovaro Leo Roodhart – VP Group GameChanger, Shell

Five Key Topics

Who? Innovaro / GameChanger

Why? Future Growth

How? Shell Technology Futures

What? Future Insights and Catalysts

Where? Docking Points

Who? Innovaro / Gamechanger

Innovaro

Europe’s leading innovation strategy and insight firm

Supports major organisations globally

Core expertise in identifying major growth opportunities

Shell GameChanger

Shell’s corporate innovation program

Focus on next generation of business opportunities

2004 extended remit to innovation outside energy

Why? Future Growth

The next big thing

Many firms looking for higher growth rates

Current short term activities are not enough

Need more high revenue / margin opportunities

Looking over the usual horizon and outside the norm

Need to see and act on the future ahead of peers

How? Shell Technology Futures

Context

Major changes occurring across the energy sector

Organisation looks 20 years ahead – Scenarios

Need to identify potential new innovation spaces

Identify new areas that Shell can possibly operate in

Highlight key technologies for potential investment

Design Principles

‘ Dream team’ of leading edge global expertise

Full week immersive debate and discussion

Look 20 years out – drivers and impacts

Differentiate possibility vs. probability

Expert facilitation and event design

Broad range of global themes for stimulus

What? Future View

What did Shell got out of this?

Expertly informed on possibility vs. probability

Highlighted 10 key relevant new innovation spaces

4 potential threats linked to Early Warning System

6 major multi $bn future growth opportunities

Technology view integrated into global scenarios

Stimulated new thinking within the organisation

Clarified priority for new Innovation Domains

What? Insights and Catalysts

Insights on today

Avian Flu is the biggest threat to humanity – far greater than global warming, nuclear terrorism and natural disasters

People are already being tracked through their mobile phones – even when they are turned off.

In the USA today more people die from misprescriptions than from road accidents

Twenty five percent of corn is now used for ethanol production

It takes 400000 litres of water to build a car and 29 litres to make a single Starbucks cappuccino

Insights on tomorrow

Ford has only ever produced 90 million cars. By 2020 China will have 150 million cars.

The entire transport fuel needs of the USA can be supplied by advanced biofuels using a piece of land the size of Texas

The 2025 environment is being planned and built today.

By 2020 medical tourism will have extended beyond nip and tuck vacations to include recreational modification

Implants are here today in niche areas: By 2025 the outsiders will be those without an implant

Our identity will be based on our individual DNA profiles

Solitude will be a luxury – maybe a traded commodity

Water, not oil, is our key resource – we don’t have enough: Wars will be fought over it - consumption must change

Catalysts for Innovation

Short term:

Carbon

Web 2.0

Bio-fuels

Wellness

Medium term:

Water

Authenticity

Embedded Energy

Healthcare Insurance

Longer term:

Water 2.0

People Tracking

Superconductivity

True Mass Personalisation

Where? Docking Points

Docking Points

Africa: Mobile Payments

India: Low cost cataract operations

Singapore: Economic water desalination

Thank You

Tim Jones

Principal

Innovaro Limited

84 Brook Street

London W1K 5EH

UK

[email_address]

Leo Roodhart

VP Group Innovation GameChanger

Shell International BV

Visseringlaan 26, Postbus 60

2280 AB Rijswijk

The Netherlands

leo.roodhart@shell.com

Future Trends Presentation Tim Jones Ppt 97

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