Future Trends Presentation Tim Jones Ppt 97


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Keynote from 2007 Future Trends conference highlighting Shell Tech Futures approach and sample insights etc

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  • Future Trends Presentation Tim Jones Ppt 97

    1. 2. Possibility vs. Probability Technology Futures: Identifying 20 Year Growth Opportunities Future Trends 2007, Miami Tim Jones – Principal, Innovaro Leo Roodhart – VP Group GameChanger, Shell
    2. 3. Five Key Topics <ul><li>Who? Innovaro / GameChanger </li></ul><ul><li>Why? Future Growth </li></ul><ul><li>How? Shell Technology Futures </li></ul><ul><li>What? Future Insights and Catalysts </li></ul><ul><li>Where? Docking Points </li></ul>
    3. 4. Who? Innovaro / Gamechanger
    4. 5. <ul><li>Innovaro </li></ul><ul><li>Europe’s leading innovation strategy and insight firm </li></ul><ul><li>Supports major organisations globally </li></ul><ul><li>Core expertise in identifying major growth opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Shell GameChanger </li></ul><ul><li>Shell’s corporate innovation program </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on next generation of business opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>2004 extended remit to innovation outside energy </li></ul>
    5. 6. Why? Future Growth
    6. 7. The next big thing <ul><li>Many firms looking for higher growth rates </li></ul><ul><li>Current short term activities are not enough </li></ul><ul><li>Need more high revenue / margin opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Looking over the usual horizon and outside the norm </li></ul><ul><li>Need to see and act on the future ahead of peers </li></ul>
    7. 11. How? Shell Technology Futures
    8. 12. Context <ul><li>Major changes occurring across the energy sector </li></ul><ul><li>Organisation looks 20 years ahead – Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Need to identify potential new innovation spaces </li></ul><ul><li>Identify new areas that Shell can possibly operate in </li></ul><ul><li>Highlight key technologies for potential investment </li></ul>
    9. 15. Design Principles <ul><li>‘ Dream team’ of leading edge global expertise </li></ul><ul><li>Full week immersive debate and discussion </li></ul><ul><li>Look 20 years out – drivers and impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Differentiate possibility vs. probability </li></ul><ul><li>Expert facilitation and event design </li></ul><ul><li>Broad range of global themes for stimulus </li></ul>
    10. 18. What? Future View
    11. 21. What did Shell got out of this? <ul><li>Expertly informed on possibility vs. probability </li></ul><ul><li>Highlighted 10 key relevant new innovation spaces </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4 potential threats linked to Early Warning System </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6 major multi $bn future growth opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology view integrated into global scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Stimulated new thinking within the organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Clarified priority for new Innovation Domains </li></ul>
    12. 23. What? Insights and Catalysts
    13. 24. <ul><li>Insights on today </li></ul>
    14. 25. Avian Flu is the biggest threat to humanity – far greater than global warming, nuclear terrorism and natural disasters
    15. 26. People are already being tracked through their mobile phones – even when they are turned off.
    16. 27. In the USA today more people die from misprescriptions than from road accidents
    17. 28. Twenty five percent of corn is now used for ethanol production
    18. 29. It takes 400000 litres of water to build a car and 29 litres to make a single Starbucks cappuccino
    19. 30. <ul><li>Insights on tomorrow </li></ul>
    20. 31. Ford has only ever produced 90 million cars.  By 2020 China will have 150 million cars.
    21. 32. The entire transport fuel needs of the USA can be supplied by advanced biofuels using a piece of land the size of Texas
    22. 33. The 2025 environment is being planned and built today.
    23. 34. By 2020 medical tourism will have extended beyond nip and tuck vacations to include recreational modification
    24. 35. Implants are here today in niche areas: By 2025 the outsiders will be those without an implant
    25. 36. Our identity will be based on our individual DNA profiles
    26. 37. Solitude will be a luxury – maybe a traded commodity
    27. 38. Water, not oil, is our key resource – we don’t have enough: Wars will be fought over it - consumption must change
    28. 39. Catalysts for Innovation <ul><li>Short term: </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Bio-fuels </li></ul><ul><li>Wellness </li></ul>
    29. 40. Catalysts for Innovation <ul><li>Medium term: </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul><ul><li>Authenticity </li></ul><ul><li>Embedded Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Healthcare Insurance </li></ul>
    30. 41. Catalysts for Innovation <ul><li>Longer term: </li></ul><ul><li>Water 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>People Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Superconductivity </li></ul><ul><li>True Mass Personalisation </li></ul>
    31. 42. Where? Docking Points
    32. 43. Docking Points
    33. 44. Africa: Mobile Payments
    34. 45. India: Low cost cataract operations
    35. 46. Singapore: Economic water desalination
    36. 47. Thank You
    37. 48. <ul><li>Tim Jones </li></ul><ul><li>Principal </li></ul><ul><li>Innovaro Limited </li></ul><ul><li>84 Brook Street </li></ul><ul><li>London W1K 5EH </li></ul><ul><li>UK </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Leo Roodhart </li></ul><ul><li>VP Group Innovation GameChanger </li></ul><ul><li>Shell International BV </li></ul><ul><li>Visseringlaan 26, Postbus 60 </li></ul><ul><li>2280 AB Rijswijk </li></ul><ul><li>The Netherlands </li></ul><ul><li>leo.roodhart@shell.com </li></ul>