The	
  Future	
  of	
  Mobility	
  
                                                       22 September 2010	
  




Tim	
...
World’s	
  First	
  Global	
  Open	
  Foresight	
  programme	
  

Looking	
  out	
  10	
  years	
  at	
  the	
  big	
  iss...
Four	
  Certain:es	
  for	
  2020	
  
Imbalanced	
  Popula;on	
  Growth	
                                                          Certain;es
                  ...
Key	
  Resource	
  Constraints	
                                                                    Certain;es
           ...
Ubiquitous	
  Data	
  Access	
                                                              Certain;es
                   ...
Asian	
  Wealth	
  ShiL	
                                                                Certain;es
                      ...
Six	
  Clusters	
  of	
  Future	
  Insights
                                          	
  
Health	
  
Diabesity	
                                                                                                 Health	
  



...
Global	
  Pandemics	
                                                                                         Health	
  

...
Hal;ng	
  Alzheimer's	
  	
                                                                  Health	
  




            St...
Wealth	
  
Richer	
  Poorer	
                                                                                        Wealth	
  




 ...
Mobile	
  Money	
                                                                                  Wealth	
  




        ...
Third	
  Global	
  Currency	
                                                                     Wealth	
  




        T...
Happiness
        	
  
Ac;ve	
  Elderly	
                                                                          Happiness
                    ...
Choosing	
  God	
                                                                                              Happiness
 ...
Switching	
  Off	
                                                                          Happiness
                     ...
Security	
  
Credible	
  Sources	
                                                                                Security	
  




    ...
Solar	
  Sunrise	
                                                                                   Security	
  




    ...
Water	
  Management	
  	
                                                        Security	
  




        Advanced	
  wate...
Locality	
  
Mega	
  City	
  States	
                                                                   Locality	
  




         Incre...
Local	
  Foods	
                                                                            Locality	
  




          Inc...
Migra;on	
  Magnets	
                                                                Locality	
  




        Immigra;on	
...
Mobility	
  
Asian	
  Avia;on	
                                                                                     Mobility	
  




  ...
Drone	
  Wars	
                                                                                     Security	
  




     ...
Chinese	
  Trains	
                                                                                Mobility	
  




      ...
People	
  Tracking	
                                                                      Mobility	
  




  The	
  accept...
Dense	
  Ci;es	
                                                                                   Locality	
  




      ...
Less	
  Energy	
                                                                                    Wealth	
  




       ...
Clean	
  Shipping	
                                                                             Mobility	
  




         ...
Electric	
  Mobility	
                                                                                  Mobility	
  




 ...
Electric	
  Mobility	
                                                                              Mobility	
  




     ...
Intelligent	
  Highways	
                                                                Mobility	
  




               M...
Automated	
  Vehicles	
                                                                               Mobility	
  




   ...
Automated	
  Vehicles	
                                                                         Mobility	
  




         ...
Urban	
  (Im)mobility	
                                                                              Mobility	
  




    ...
Bridging	
  The	
  Last	
  Mile	
                                                                     Locality	
  




   ...
Lease	
  Everything	
                                                                                 Wealth	
  




     ...
Dynamic	
  Pricing	
                                                                    Wealth	
  




         Pervasive	...
More	
  people	
  =	
  more	
  freight	
  +	
  more	
  travel	
  

Less	
  energy	
  +	
  more	
  conges:on	
  =	
  more	
...
The	
  Future	
  of	
  Mobility	
  
                                                       22 September 2010	
  




Tim	
...
Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda
Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda
Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda
Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda
Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda
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Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda

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Talk on the Future of mobility drawing on some of the insights from the Future Agenda programme

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Future of Mobility 22 09 10 Future Agenda

  1. 1. The  Future  of  Mobility   22 September 2010   Tim  Jones  -­‐  Programme  Director   :m.jones@futureagenda.org  
  2. 2. World’s  First  Global  Open  Foresight  programme   Looking  out  10  years  at  the  big  issues  for  2020   50  workshops  in  25  countries  with  2,000  people   Engaged  with  >20,000  people  in  147  countries   52  major  probable  insights  on  the  next  decade   The  Future  Agenda  Programme  
  3. 3. Four  Certain:es  for  2020  
  4. 4. Imbalanced  Popula;on  Growth   Certain;es   By  2020  we  will  add  another  700m  people  to  the  planet,     most  in  places  least    able  to  accommodate  them  
  5. 5. Key  Resource  Constraints   Certain;es   We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poli;cal    shortages  of  key  materials  that  will  bring     about  fundamental  changes  in  how  we  live  
  6. 6. Ubiquitous  Data  Access   Certain;es   We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  network  connec;on  will  have  one  
  7. 7. Asian  Wealth  ShiL   Certain;es   The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth     shiLs  East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  
  8. 8. Six  Clusters  of  Future  Insights  
  9. 9. Health  
  10. 10. Diabesity   Health   With  diabetes  consuming  5%  of  GDP  a  combina;on  of     fat  taxa;on,  pa;ent  data  mining  and  personal  budgets     will  play  a  role  in  stabilising  the  obesity  epidemic  
  11. 11. Global  Pandemics   Health   We  are  likely  to  see  2  to  3  major  pandemics  start  in     regions  with  limited  public  healthcare  and  rapidly     spread  globally  and  so  demand  fast  response  
  12. 12. Hal;ng  Alzheimer's     Health   Stopping  mental  degrada;on  from  Alzheimer’s  makes     quality  ageing  more  possible  by  improving     cogni;on  and  slowing  the  rate  of  decline  
  13. 13. Wealth  
  14. 14. Richer  Poorer   Wealth   Widening  differences  in  wealth  between  and  within     urban  and  rural  communi;es  extends  the  gap  between     rich  and  poor  -­‐  but  they  s;ll  need  each  other  
  15. 15. Mobile  Money   Wealth   Proven  systems  built  on  mobile  connec;vity  and     increasingly  flexible  means  of  exchange  provide  a   ;pping  point  in  the  shiL  towards  the  cashless  society  
  16. 16. Third  Global  Currency   Wealth   The  economic  rise  of  Asia  and  the  need  for  an  alterna;ve     to  the  US  dollar  as  the  world’s  reserve  currency  produces     a  parallel  broad-­‐basket  Asian  Currency  Unit  
  17. 17. Happiness  
  18. 18. Ac;ve  Elderly   Happiness   A  wealthier,  healthier  older  genera;on  increasingly     lead  more  ac;ve  lives  including  3rd  genera;on  careers     and  becoming  more  poli;cally  involved  
  19. 19. Choosing  God   Happiness   The  increasing  fragmenta;on  of  society  and  looser     connec;on  between  religion  and  the  state  sees     more  of  us  turning  to  God  to  help  define  who  we  are  
  20. 20. Switching  Off   Happiness   Being  disconnected  in  an  always  connected  world  leads     to  virtual  cocoons  at  home  and  real  physical     solitude  becomes  an  op;on  only  for  the  rich  
  21. 21. Security  
  22. 22. Credible  Sources   Security   Greater  informa;on  overload  moves  our  focus     from  simply  accessing  data  to  include  the  source     of  the  insight  to  dis;nguish  what  we  trust  
  23. 23. Solar  Sunrise   Security   Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security     and  climate  change  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale     solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  
  24. 24. Water  Management     Security   Advanced  water  purifica;on,  irriga;on  and  desalina;on   technologies  are  used  to  help  communi;es  to   manage  the  rising  supply  /  demand  imbalance  
  25. 25. Locality  
  26. 26. Mega  City  States   Locality   Increasing  compe;;on  between  ci;es  over-­‐rides  na;onal   priori;es  as  mayors  lead  bold  ini;a;ves  to  place  their     ci;es  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage  
  27. 27. Local  Foods   Locality   Increased  transparency  on  food  availability  and  security,     land  use  and  eco-­‐literacy  accelerate  mass  consump;on     of  locally  grown  and  processed  foods  
  28. 28. Migra;on  Magnets   Locality   Immigra;on  is  part  of  economic  development  strategies     and,  especially  in  low  fer;lity  economies,     na;ons  posi;on  themselves  to  a_ract  migrants  
  29. 29. Mobility  
  30. 30. Asian  Avia;on   Mobility   Led  by  more  tourists  and  steady  growth  in  cargo     transporta;on,  Asian  avia;on  places  more  orders     and  becomes  the  largest  air  market  in  the  world  
  31. 31. Drone  Wars   Security   Intelligent  UAVs  choose  their  vic;ms  themselves     as  the  race  for  more  focused  military  influence  leads     to  the  prolifera;on  of  assassina;on  tools  
  32. 32. Chinese  Trains   Mobility   China,  the  pacese_er  for  change  in  inter-­‐urban   transport,  is  inves;ng  over  $1  trillion  expanding  its     rail  network  to  120,000km  by  2020  
  33. 33. People  Tracking   Mobility   The  acceptance  of  being  tracked  by  your  mobile  is  accelerated     by  ;cket-­‐less  transport  systems,  increased  surveillance     and  successful  loca;on-­‐based  services  
  34. 34. Dense  Ci;es   Locality   As  urban  migra;on  increases,  efficient,  densely     populated  ci;es  not  distributed  op;ons  are  the     blueprints  for  more  sustainable  places  to  live    
  35. 35. Less  Energy   Wealth   Consumers  are  incen;vised  to  use  significantly     less  energy  as  escala;ng  growth  in  carbon  emissions     force  u;li;es  to  change  their  business  models  
  36. 36. Clean  Shipping   Mobility   Under  increasing  pressure  to  improve  efficiency     freight  shipping  adopts  a  range  of  alterna;ve     policies  and  power  systems    
  37. 37. Electric  Mobility   Mobility   With  France  and  Germany  taking  the  ini;al  lead  roles,     electric  cars  take  off  and  form  up  to  10%  of  the     world’s  vehicle  fleet  by  2020  
  38. 38. Electric  Mobility   Mobility   Renault  in  par;cular  is  making  bold  moves    for  the  future  in  France,  Denmark  and    Israel  in  partnership  with  Be_er  Place  
  39. 39. Intelligent  Highways   Mobility   Mesh  networks  and  ubiquitous  mobile  connec;ons     deliver  automated  highways  to  improve  safety,     increase  capacity  and  reduce  conges;on  
  40. 40. Automated  Vehicles   Mobility   With  truck  platoons  and  urban  delivery  vehicles  at  the  fore,     we  will  see  a  steady  shiL  to  driverless  transporta;on  in    those  areas  where  improved  efficiency  and  safety  are  key  
  41. 41. Automated  Vehicles   Mobility   Personal  pods  are  gedng  a  lot  of  a_en;on  with  trials   scheduled  for  a  number  of  ci;es  across     Europe,  Asia  and  also  at  Heathrow  Airport  
  42. 42. Urban  (Im)mobility   Mobility   Informed  choices,  growth,  conges;on  and  regula;on     impact  the  world’s  ci;es  to  drive  a  shiL  to     more  sustainable  efficient  transport  op;ons  
  43. 43. Bridging  The  Last  Mile   Locality   The  need  to  make  public  transport  as  flexible  as  private   focuses  a_en;on  on  the  last  mile  between  mul;-­‐modal     hubs  and  the  home  /  work  des;na;on  
  44. 44. Lease  Everything   Wealth   Rising  sustainability  impera;ves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  shiL  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    
  45. 45. Dynamic  Pricing   Wealth   Pervasive  smart  meters  and  ubiquitous  tracking  services     create  plagorms  for  the  dynamic  pricing  of     resources,  access  and  travel  to  manage  demand  
  46. 46. More  people  =  more  freight  +  more  travel   Less  energy  +  more  conges:on  =  more  regula:on   >  Big  steps  forward  in  some  loca:ons  (but  not  all)   >  New  business  models  on  access  and  pricing   =  Some  great  opportuni;es  for  innova;on   Key  Mobility  Thoughts  
  47. 47. The  Future  of  Mobility   22 September 2010   Tim  Jones  -­‐  Programme  Director   :m.jones@futureagenda.org  
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