0
Emerging	
  Shi+s	
  for	
  The	
  Media	
  Industry	
  
13	
  September	
  2013	
  |	
  Tim	
  Jones	
  
This	
  presenta6on	
  is	
  an	
  ini6al	
  view	
  that	
  brings	
  together	
  a	
  number	
  	
  
of	
  different	
  p...
Shi+s	
  Within	
  The	
  Media	
  Industry	
  
Instantaneous	
  Bite-­‐sized	
  Distribu=on	
  
Mul6ple	
  media	
  sources	
  are	
  instantly	
  integrated	
  at	
  th...
Curated	
  Content	
  
Media	
  networks	
  and	
  crowd-­‐elected	
  taste-­‐makers	
  collate	
  bespoke	
  
content	
  ...
Differen=ated	
  Knowledge	
  
As	
  insight	
  is	
  globally	
  commodi6zed,	
  the	
  best	
  returns	
  go	
  to	
  	
 ...
Democra=zed	
  Authorship	
  
The	
  blur	
  between	
  professional	
  and	
  amateur	
  authorship	
  is	
  	
  
complet...
Amplifica=on	
  Overrides	
  Edi=ng	
  
The	
  role	
  of	
  the	
  amplifiers	
  of	
  opinion	
  rise	
  above	
  original...
Relevance	
  is	
  King	
  	
  
The	
  shiD	
  from	
  digital	
  dimes	
  to	
  mobile	
  pennies	
  is	
  reversed	
  	
...
The	
  AJen=on	
  Economy	
  
Content	
  sharing	
  is	
  faster	
  and	
  louder	
  to	
  build	
  and	
  retain	
  	
  
...
Precision	
  Value	
  
The	
  total	
  value	
  assigned	
  to	
  access	
  is	
  zero:	
  The	
  value	
  of	
  content	
...
Lean	
  Back	
  2.0	
  
The	
  rise	
  of	
  tablets	
  enables	
  the	
  revitaliza6on	
  of	
  the	
  	
  
solitary,	
  ...
Mass	
  Intelligence	
  
Led	
  by	
  Pay	
  TV,	
  mass	
  audiences	
  are	
  aLracted	
  to	
  challenging	
  	
  
narr...
Future	
  of	
  Free	
  
The	
  near-­‐zero	
  ‘marginal	
  costs’	
  of	
  digital	
  distribu6on	
  
creates	
  new	
  m...
Choreographed	
  Serendipity	
  
Trusted	
  plaMorms	
  combine	
  credible	
  views	
  around	
  	
  
the	
  core	
  but	...
Adjacent	
  Sector	
  Changes	
  That	
  Could	
  Impact	
  Media	
  
Everything	
  Niche	
  	
  
Niche	
  becomes	
  the	
  mainstream	
  as	
  the	
  cost	
  to	
  connect	
  those	
  	
  
w...
Seman=c	
  Web	
  Access	
  
Structured	
  and	
  unstructured	
  text,	
  video	
  and	
  image	
  data	
  is	
  	
  
aut...
Personalized	
  Localized	
  Presenta=on	
  
Informa6on	
  is	
  con6nuously	
  updated	
  to	
  reflect	
  current	
  need...
Less	
  Variety	
  
The	
  future	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  reduced	
  choice	
  but	
  not	
  less	
  interest	
  as	
  	
  
...
Retail	
  Showrooms	
  
Physical	
  retail	
  outlets	
  diverge	
  in	
  ac6vity	
  between	
  tradi6onal	
  stores	
  
	...
Embedded	
  Gamifica=on	
  
People	
  interact	
  with	
  informa6on	
  and	
  each	
  other	
  via	
  blended	
  	
  
digi...
Live	
  Experiences	
  	
  
(Re)connec6ng	
  individuals	
  with	
  shared	
  interests	
  rises	
  in	
  significance	
  
...
End	
  of	
  Intellectual	
  Property	
  
In	
  a	
  flaLened	
  world	
  where	
  China’s	
  domes6c	
  market	
  increasi...
Performance-­‐Based	
  Adver=sing	
  
With	
  Google	
  as	
  the	
  dominant	
  catalyst	
  for	
  change,	
  all	
  main...
Small	
  and	
  Distributed	
  
Local	
  at	
  home	
  produc6on	
  matches	
  consump6on	
  with	
  	
  
3D	
  and	
  dig...
Informa=on	
  is	
  S=ll	
  Power	
  	
  
Knowledge	
  and	
  informa6on	
  remains	
  a	
  source	
  of	
  	
  
compe66ve...
Owning	
  Your	
  Digital	
  Shadow	
  
Increasing	
  consumer	
  awareness	
  of	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  their	
  	
  
d...
Everything	
  Digi=zed	
  
By	
  2020	
  all	
  the	
  world’s	
  informa6on	
  is	
  digi6zed,	
  storage	
  is	
  nearly...
End	
  of	
  Country	
  Borders	
  
Ci6es	
  are	
  more	
  important	
  that	
  countries,	
  cultural	
  connec6ons	
  
...
Perfectly	
  Informed	
  Consumers	
  
BeLer	
  transparency	
  of	
  cost,	
  quality,	
  benefit	
  and	
  availability	
...
Macro	
  Trends	
  Impac=ng	
  Many	
  Sectors	
  
Mass	
  Customiza=on	
  
Consumers’	
  expecta6ons	
  of	
  unique	
  and	
  bespoke	
  are	
  met	
  	
  
through	
  the	...
Everyday	
  Leisure	
  
With	
  increased	
  part-­‐6me	
  working	
  for	
  the	
  many	
  and	
  blurring	
  of	
  the	
...
Pervasive	
  Mobile	
  PlaXorms	
  
The	
  any6me,	
  anywhere	
  experience	
  is	
  delivered	
  via	
  increasingly	
  ...
Open	
  Business	
  Models	
  	
  
Value	
  is	
  created,	
  shared	
  and	
  distributed	
  via	
  a	
  mix	
  of	
  	
 ...
Dynamic	
  Pricing	
  
Real-­‐6me	
  consump6on	
  paLerns	
  and	
  data	
  seamlessly	
  drive	
  	
  
the	
  marginal	
...
Con=nuously	
  Earned	
  Trust	
  
Inherited	
  and	
  historical	
  status	
  of	
  brands	
  and	
  icons	
  is	
  subsu...
Global	
  Talent	
  Networks	
  
The	
  best	
  talent	
  operates	
  as	
  free	
  agents	
  across	
  mul6ple	
  network...
Internet	
  of	
  Things	
  
Every	
  device	
  and	
  consumable	
  product	
  has	
  an	
  integrated	
  	
  
unique	
  ...
Self-­‐Organizing	
  Communi=es	
  
Increasingly	
  decentralized,	
  self-­‐managing	
  and	
  semi-­‐autonomous	
  
comm...
Redefining	
  Value	
  
Consumers	
  want	
  to	
  par6cipate	
  in	
  value	
  crea6on,	
  shiDing	
  the	
  	
  
mindset	...
Openly	
  Shared	
  Insight	
  
Knowledge	
  is	
  nothing	
  if	
  not	
  freely	
  shared	
  as	
  value	
  crea6on	
  s...
Micro	
  Leisure	
  Moments	
  
In	
  the	
  always-­‐on	
  world	
  where	
  we	
  sleep	
  with	
  our	
  devices,	
  	
...
Privacy	
  Backlash	
  
Breaches	
  in	
  personal	
  and	
  societal	
  data	
  use	
  result	
  in	
  less	
  not	
  mor...
Layers	
  of	
  Time	
  
Technology	
  evolves	
  faster	
  than	
  culture	
  and	
  values	
  with	
  different	
  
gener...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Emerging shifts for the media industry 13 09 13 - changes from within the sector and beyond

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This presentation is an initial view that brings together a number of different perspectives on the future of media driven by potential changes within the sector, in adjacent arenas and beyond - it is based on multiple people's perspectives and we welcome other views to add / edit for v2 if you have them

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Transcript of "Emerging shifts for the media industry 13 09 13 - changes from within the sector and beyond"

  1. 1. Emerging  Shi+s  for  The  Media  Industry   13  September  2013  |  Tim  Jones  
  2. 2. This  presenta6on  is  an  ini6al  view  that  brings  together  a  number     of  different  perspec6ves  on  the  future  of  media  driven  by  poten6al   changes  within  the  sector,  in  adjacent  arenas  and  beyond     Media   ShiDs   Adjacent   Changes   Macro   Trends  
  3. 3. Shi+s  Within  The  Media  Industry  
  4. 4. Instantaneous  Bite-­‐sized  Distribu=on   Mul6ple  media  sources  are  instantly  integrated  at  the     point  of  consump6on  to  provide  us  with  immersive     access  to  tailored,  bite-­‐sized  content    
  5. 5. Curated  Content   Media  networks  and  crowd-­‐elected  taste-­‐makers  collate  bespoke   content  for  users  both  from  within  their  and  other  organiza6ons’   archives  and  from  related  public  and  individual  sources  
  6. 6. Differen=ated  Knowledge   As  insight  is  globally  commodi6zed,  the  best  returns  go  to     those  who  can  produce  non-­‐standard,  differen6ated     knowledge  that  has  relevance  for  the  few  and  many  
  7. 7. Democra=zed  Authorship   The  blur  between  professional  and  amateur  authorship  is     complete  as  content  is  valued  by  merit  and  constant     peer  review  more  than  historical  founda6on  
  8. 8. Amplifica=on  Overrides  Edi=ng   The  role  of  the  amplifiers  of  opinion  rise  above  original  content     editors  as  crea6ve  talent  seeks  to  beLer  engage  with     audiences  directly  via  amplifica6on  plaMorms  
  9. 9. Relevance  is  King     The  shiD  from  digital  dimes  to  mobile  pennies  is  reversed     as  contextual  data  is  fully  integrated  into  adver6sing     experiences  that  vary  content,  loca6on  and  personality    
  10. 10. The  AJen=on  Economy   Content  sharing  is  faster  and  louder  to  build  and  retain     audiences  increasingly  predisposed  to  short,  sharp,     in-­‐moment  insights  rather  than  immersive  experiences  
  11. 11. Precision  Value   The  total  value  assigned  to  access  is  zero:  The  value  of  content  is     aligned  to  the  content  itself,  not  the  value  of  the  distribu6on   plaMorm.  Value  comes  from  precision,  not  scale    
  12. 12. Lean  Back  2.0   The  rise  of  tablets  enables  the  revitaliza6on  of  the     solitary,  relaxed,  in-­‐depth  and  immersive     pleasurable  lean  back  experience    
  13. 13. Mass  Intelligence   Led  by  Pay  TV,  mass  audiences  are  aLracted  to  challenging     narra6ves  that  show  that  value  can  be  created  and     extracted  through  investment  in  high  quality  content    
  14. 14. Future  of  Free   The  near-­‐zero  ‘marginal  costs’  of  digital  distribu6on   creates  new  marketplaces  where  free  pricing     is  prac6cally  a  force  of  economic  gravity    
  15. 15. Choreographed  Serendipity   Trusted  plaMorms  combine  credible  views  around     the  core  but  also  unveil  new  issues  making     mul6ple  subjects  relevant  for  the  reader  
  16. 16. Adjacent  Sector  Changes  That  Could  Impact  Media  
  17. 17. Everything  Niche     Niche  becomes  the  mainstream  as  the  cost  to  connect  those     with  common  interests  drops  to  zero  and  more  of  us  can     pay  aLen6on  to  specialist,  tailored  long-­‐tail  issues  
  18. 18. Seman=c  Web  Access   Structured  and  unstructured  text,  video  and  image  data  is     automa6cally  processed  by  machines  ac6ng  as     intelligent  agents  without  the  need  for  human  input  
  19. 19. Personalized  Localized  Presenta=on   Informa6on  is  con6nuously  updated  to  reflect  current  need  states     and  interests  and  provided  for  seamless  cross-­‐plaMorm     consump6on  for  the  individual    
  20. 20. Less  Variety   The  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice  but  not  less  interest  as     bricks  and  mortar  retailers  provide  an  increasingly  edited     porMolio  of  products  through  ever  more  efficient  channels  
  21. 21. Retail  Showrooms   Physical  retail  outlets  diverge  in  ac6vity  between  tradi6onal  stores    and  showrooms  where  we  browse  and  research  ahead  of     mobile  online  purchase  and  at-­‐home  delivery    
  22. 22. Embedded  Gamifica=on   People  interact  with  informa6on  and  each  other  via  blended     digital  /  physical  environments  featuring  mul6ple     game-­‐like  elements  embedded  within  them  
  23. 23. Live  Experiences     (Re)connec6ng  individuals  with  shared  interests  rises  in  significance   and  value  as  pivotal  live  events  that  create  moments  for  deeper,     richer  connec6ons  are  prized  above  distributed  interac6ons  
  24. 24. End  of  Intellectual  Property   In  a  flaLened  world  where  China’s  domes6c  market  increasingly     sets  the  global  standards,  formal  intellectual  property  frameworks     are  replaced  by  know-­‐how  and  appeals  to  honesty  
  25. 25. Performance-­‐Based  Adver=sing   With  Google  as  the  dominant  catalyst  for  change,  all  mainstream     media  adver6sing  moves  to  reward  measurable  ‘effec6veness     per  view’  rather  than  number  and  segmenta6on  of  views    
  26. 26. Small  and  Distributed   Local  at  home  produc6on  matches  consump6on  with     3D  and  digital  scanning  and  prin6ng  providing  highly     efficient  and  good  quality  instant  physical  outputs  
  27. 27. Informa=on  is  S=ll  Power     Knowledge  and  informa6on  remains  a  source  of     compe66ve  advantage  but  retaining  control  is  more  complex    as  mobility  and  the  democra6za6on  of  everything  increases  
  28. 28. Owning  Your  Digital  Shadow   Increasing  consumer  awareness  of  the  value  of  their     digital  footprints  drives  the  desire  for  greater  control  of     personal  data  balancing  convenience  and  benefit  
  29. 29. Everything  Digi=zed   By  2020  all  the  world’s  informa6on  is  digi6zed,  storage  is  nearly     free  and  the  volume  of  data  in  the  world  is  doubling  monthly  –     we  can  all  access  the  21st  century  archive  
  30. 30. End  of  Country  Borders   Ci6es  are  more  important  that  countries,  cultural  connec6ons   predominate  over  na6onal  iden66es  and  new  markets     link  together  dispersed  groups  around  common  issues  
  31. 31. Perfectly  Informed  Consumers   BeLer  transparency  of  cost,  quality,  benefit  and  availability  enables   consumers  to  set  the  right  price  for  products  and  services  and  buyers   pay  sellers  what  they  want    
  32. 32. Macro  Trends  Impac=ng  Many  Sectors  
  33. 33. Mass  Customiza=on   Consumers’  expecta6ons  of  unique  and  bespoke  are  met     through  the  apparent  delivery  of  individual  combina6ons     drawn  from  choreographed  choice  architectures  
  34. 34. Everyday  Leisure   With  increased  part-­‐6me  working  for  the  many  and  blurring  of  the     work-­‐life  balance,  leisure-­‐6me  shiDs  from  being  an  occasional  luxury     or  end  of  week  commodity  to  become  a  core  part  of  every  day    
  35. 35. Pervasive  Mobile  PlaXorms   The  any6me,  anywhere  experience  is  delivered  via  increasingly     wearable  devices  that  connect  to  the  cloud  via  wireless     networks  whether  in  mo6on  or  staying  put  
  36. 36. Open  Business  Models     Value  is  created,  shared  and  distributed  via  a  mix  of     use-­‐driven  metrics  and  underlying  informa6on  exchange     and  reuse  mechanisms  and  rewards    
  37. 37. Dynamic  Pricing   Real-­‐6me  consump6on  paLerns  and  data  seamlessly  drive     the  marginal  value  of  content,  the  cost  of  access  for     adver6sing  and  the  underlying  cost  to  produce  
  38. 38. Con=nuously  Earned  Trust   Inherited  and  historical  status  of  brands  and  icons  is  subsumed     into  a  world  where  trust  goes  to  the  most  credible  source     in  the  moment  and  many  fight  for  authen6city  
  39. 39. Global  Talent  Networks   The  best  talent  operates  as  free  agents  across  mul6ple  networks   aLracted  not  to  employers  but  to  the  commissioners  that     can  provide  projects  worth  working  on  with  peers  of  note    
  40. 40. Internet  of  Things   Every  device  and  consumable  product  has  an  integrated     unique  IP  address  that  enables  everything  to  become  an     ac6ve  node  in  the  shared  network  
  41. 41. Self-­‐Organizing  Communi=es   Increasingly  decentralized,  self-­‐managing  and  semi-­‐autonomous   communi6es  created  on  the  basis  of  trust  and  shared   value  crea6on  work  together  to  deliver  projects  
  42. 42. Redefining  Value   Consumers  want  to  par6cipate  in  value  crea6on,  shiDing  the     mindset  to  “made  with  me”  -­‐  Value  is  about  “shared  with  me”     as  the  ownerless  economy  expands    
  43. 43. Openly  Shared  Insight   Knowledge  is  nothing  if  not  freely  shared  as  value  crea6on  shiDs     from  insight  ownership  to  insight  use  and  applica6on  while     content  sources  compete  to  share  
  44. 44. Micro  Leisure  Moments   In  the  always-­‐on  world  where  we  sleep  with  our  devices,     short-­‐burst  6mes  to  disconnect  become  increasingly  integrated     into  a  maelstrom  of  mul6-­‐layered  experiences    
  45. 45. Privacy  Backlash   Breaches  in  personal  and  societal  data  use  result  in  less  not  more     sharing  of  data  as  many  turn  off  loca6on  tracking  while  some     choose  to  opt-­‐in  to  a  privacy  marketplace  
  46. 46. Layers  of  Time   Technology  evolves  faster  than  culture  and  values  with  different   genera6ons  leap-­‐frogging  each  other  in  their  means  of     communica6on,  interac6on  and  informa6on  access  
  47. 47. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   6m.jones@futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  
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