Emerging	  Shi+s	  and	  Implica3ons	  on	  Hospitality	  10	  May	  2013	  |	  Tim	  Jones	  |	  Programme	  Director	  	  
This	  talk	  provides	  some	  views	  on	  how	  external	  shi4s	  	  outside	  the	  hotel	  industry	  could	  provok...
As	  change	  accelerates	  in	  an	  increasingly	  connected	  world,	  	  more	  companies	  are	  looking	  further	  ...
Organisa?ons	  increasingly	  want	  to	  iden?fy	  and	  understand	  	  both	  the	  an?cipated	  and	  unexpected	  cha...
The	  Future	  Agenda	  is	  the	  world’s	  largest	  open	  foresight	  programme	  that	  accesses	  mul?ple	  views	  ...
Macro	  Trends	  for	  The	  Next	  Decade	  
By	  2020	  the	  popula?on	  will	  have	  grown	  by	  700m	  with	  many	  of	  us	  living	  longer:	  A	  good	  numb...
We	  will	  see	  economic,	  physical	  and	  poli?cal	  shortages	  of	  	  key	  materials	  that	  significantly	  chan...
The	  centre	  of	  gravity	  of	  global	  wealth	  is	  accelera?ng	  to	  	  Asia	  faster	  than	  expected:	  Western...
We	  will	  finally	  be	  connected	  everywhere	  -­‐	  everything	  	  that	  can	  benefit	  from	  a	  network	  connec...
Six	  Key	  Shi+s	  and	  Implica3ons	  for	  Hospitality	  
By	  2020	  75%	  of	  us	  will	  live	  in	  urban	  environments	  	  and	  these	  will	  increasingly	  be	  dense	  ...
Midi-­‐city	  clusters	  will	  be	  of	  growing	  significance	  with	  	  400	  middleweight	  ci?es	  in	  emerging	  m...
Millions	  are	  drawn	  to	  ci?es:	  by	  2015,	  32	  people	  an	  hour	  will	  be	  moving	  into	  Shanghai,	  39	 ...
As	  most	  of	  us	  increasingly	  live	  in	  smaller,	  more	  flexible,	  mul?func?onal	  spaces,	  making	  more	  eff...
By	  2020	  ‘weird	  weather’	  is	  commonplace,	  has	  changed	  some	  pivotal	  adtudes	  and	  the	  macro	  environ...
Organiza?ons	  are	  focused	  on	  adapta?on	  to,	  rather	  than	  mi?ga?on	  of,	  climate	  change	  as	  the	  impac...
As	  ‘green’	  is	  a	  hygiene	  factor,	  social	  innova?on	  is	  central	  for	  companies	  as	  philanthropic	  exe...
New	  regula?on,	  rising	  sustainability	  impera?ves,	  changing	  consumer	  sen?ment	  and	  increasing	  cost	  of	 ...
As	  norms	  change	  across	  sectors’	  supply	  chains,	  more	  items	  will	  be	  rented	  not	  bought	  –	  many	 ...
Wan?ng	  less	  luggage,	  guests	  may	  increasingly	  prefer	  to	  rent	  and	  not	  bring	  their	  own	  stuff	  –	 ...
As	  the	  amount	  of	  data	  in	  the	  world	  doubles	  every	  month	  access	  is	  not	  the	  issue:	  Making	  b...
Leaders	  expertly	  use	  (their	  own	  and	  others)	  data	  to	  get	  closer	  to	  consumers	  and,	  as	  the	  na...
As	  consumers	  put	  increasing	  faith	  in	  those	  most	  able	  to	  match	  unar?culated	  needs	  and	  make	  th...
For	  many	  the	  future	  is	  one	  of	  reduced	  choice	  but	  not	  less	  interest	  as	  retailers	  especially	 ...
Consumers	  increasingly	  seek	  increasingly	  tailored	  selec?ons	  of	  op?ons	  with	  the	  onus	  on	  providers	 ...
Several	  different	  organiza?ons	  are	  already	  making	  strong	  moves	  into	  taking	  a	  share	  of	  online	  an...
Decreased	  trust	  in	  ins?tu?ons	  may	  broaden	  the	  	  adop?on	  of	  new	  usable	  stores	  of	  value	  control...
Looking	  ahead	  there	  seems	  to	  be	  four	  main	  challenges	  	  and	  /	  or	  opportuni?es	  for	  leading	  ho...
Future Agenda84 Brook StreetLondonW1K 5EH+44 203 0088 141futureagenda.orgtim.jones@futureagenda.orgThe	  world’s	  leading...
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Emerging shifts and impacts on hospitality - 10 may 2013

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A talk given to several across the hotel industry on some shifts taking place outside the hospitality sector that could have significant impact in years to come. In particular looks at the challenge of creating more flexible, urban spaces; accommodating 4C of climate change; supporting more rental in every day life; creating apparent personalisation; using others data to see needs early; and proactively taking a lead role in alternative currencies. Ends with some key challenges for the branded hotel sector going forward.

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Emerging shifts and impacts on hospitality - 10 may 2013

  1. 1. Emerging  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  on  Hospitality  10  May  2013  |  Tim  Jones  |  Programme  Director    
  2. 2. This  talk  provides  some  views  on  how  external  shi4s    outside  the  hotel  industry  could  provoke  key  changes    across  the  hospitality  sector  over  the  next  decade  or  so  Contents  •  Context  –  Foresight  and  Future  Agenda  •  Macro  Trends  for  the  Next  Decade  •  Six  Key  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  for  Hospitality  1.  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  2.  Sustainable  ConsumpBon  3.  Access  Not  Ownership  4.  Trusted  Data  5.  Curated  Experiences  6.  AlternaBve  Currencies  •  Key  Challenges  for  Hotel  Brands  
  3. 3. As  change  accelerates  in  an  increasingly  connected  world,    more  companies  are  looking  further  ahead  to  be>er    understand  emerging  opportuni?es  and  challenges  Context  -­‐  Foresight    
  4. 4. Organisa?ons  increasingly  want  to  iden?fy  and  understand    both  the  an?cipated  and  unexpected  changes    so  that  they  can  be  be>er  prepared  for  the  future  Context  -­‐  Foresight    
  5. 5. The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  programme  that  accesses  mul?ple  views  of  the  next  decade    so  all  can  be  be>er  informed  and  s?mulate  innova?on  
  6. 6. Macro  Trends  for  The  Next  Decade  
  7. 7. By  2020  the  popula?on  will  have  grown  by  700m  with  many  of  us  living  longer:  A  good  number  of  us  will  be  in  marginal  regions  that  are  unable  to  accommodate  extra  growth  Imbalanced  Popula?on  Growth   Certain?es  
  8. 8. We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poli?cal  shortages  of    key  materials  that  significantly  change  our  perspec?ves  especially  around  access  to  food,  water  and  land  Key  Resource  Constraints   Certain?es    
  9. 9. The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  is  accelera?ng  to    Asia  faster  than  expected:  Western  influence  is  simultaneously  decreasing  in  many  high-­‐growth  markets  Asian  Wealth  Shi4   Certain?es  
  10. 10. We  will  finally  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything    that  can  benefit  from  a  network  connec?on  will  have  one  and  all  will  have  the  poten?al  to  access  more  informa?on  Ubiquitous  Data  Access   Certain?es  
  11. 11. Six  Key  Shi+s  and  Implica3ons  for  Hospitality  
  12. 12. By  2020  75%  of  us  will  live  in  urban  environments    and  these  will  increasingly  be  dense  ci?es  –  more  like    Paris  and  Hong  Kong  than  LA  or  Mexico  City.    Dense  Ci?es  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  13. 13. Midi-­‐city  clusters  will  be  of  growing  significance  with    400  middleweight  ci?es  in  emerging  markets  genera?ng    40%  of  global  growth  in  the  next  15  years.  Midi  City  Clusters  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  14. 14. Millions  are  drawn  to  ci?es:  by  2015,  32  people  an  hour  will  be  moving  into  Shanghai,  39  into  Kinshasa  and  Jakarta,  42  into  Mumbai  and  Karachi,  50  into  Dhaka  and  58  into  Lagos.    Developing  World  Mobility  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  15. 15. As  most  of  us  increasingly  live  in  smaller,  more  flexible,  mul?func?onal  spaces,  making  more  effec?ve  use  of  hotel  rooms  and  semi-­‐public  areas  will  be  pivotal  design  trends  Flexible  Spaces  Shi4  1:  Flexible  Urban  Spaces  
  16. 16. By  2020  ‘weird  weather’  is  commonplace,  has  changed  some  pivotal  adtudes  and  the  macro  environmental  shi4s  are  increasingly  visible  to  all  and  ac?onable  by  many  Weird  Weather  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  17. 17. Organiza?ons  are  focused  on  adapta?on  to,  rather  than  mi?ga?on  of,  climate  change  as  the  impacts  of  4C  rise  are  recognized  globally  –  should  we  be  building  floa?ng  hotels?  Adapta?on  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  18. 18. As  ‘green’  is  a  hygiene  factor,  social  innova?on  is  central  for  companies  as  philanthropic  exercises  are  replaced  by  a  more  genuine  focus  on  risk  and  sustainability  in  the  core  business    Genuine  Social  Ac?ons  Shi4  2:  Sustainable  Consump?on  
  19. 19. New  regula?on,  rising  sustainability  impera?ves,  changing  consumer  sen?ment  and  increasing  cost  of  ownership  all  shi4  the  balance  to  access  as  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy  Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Lease  Everything  
  20. 20. As  norms  change  across  sectors’  supply  chains,  more  items  will  be  rented  not  bought  –  many  brands  are  moving  towards  leasing  as  an  integral  part  of  their  business  models    Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Supply  Chain  Leasing  
  21. 21. Wan?ng  less  luggage,  guests  may  increasingly  prefer  to  rent  and  not  bring  their  own  stuff  –  whether  that  be  tablets  and  laptops  or  gym  kit,  business  shirts  and  even  evening  wear  Shi4  3:  Access  Not  Ownership   Luggage-­‐less  Travel  
  22. 22. As  the  amount  of  data  in  the  world  doubles  every  month  access  is  not  the  issue:  Making  be>er  sense  of  open  and  owned  informa?on  is  a  pivotal  and  dis?nc?ve  capability  Shared  Data  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data  
  23. 23. Leaders  expertly  use  (their  own  and  others)  data  to  get  closer  to  consumers  and,  as  the  nature  of  trust  and  value  shi4s,  established  brands  carry  less  relevance  and  weight  Value  and  Relevance  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data    
  24. 24. As  consumers  put  increasing  faith  in  those  most  able  to  match  unar?culated  needs  and  make  the  best  connec?ons,  hotel  stay  recommenda?ons  will  shi4  to  the  data  miners  Intelligent  Connec?ons  Shi4  4:  Trusted  Data    
  25. 25. For  many  the  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice  but  not  less  interest  as  retailers  especially  provide  an  increasingly  edited  porlolio  of  products  through  ever  more  efficient  channels  Less  Choice  Shi4  5:  Curated  Experiences    
  26. 26. Consumers  increasingly  seek  increasingly  tailored  selec?ons  of  op?ons  with  the  onus  on  providers  to  curate  the  ‘choice  architecture’  and  give  guests  apparent  personalisa?on  Apparent  Personaliza?on  Shi4  5:  Curated  Experiences    
  27. 27. Several  different  organiza?ons  are  already  making  strong  moves  into  taking  a  share  of  online  and  offline  payments  through  alterna?ve  currencies  and  plalorms    Exis?ng  Ac?vi?es  Shi4  6:  Alterna?ve  Currencies  
  28. 28. Decreased  trust  in  ins?tu?ons  may  broaden  the    adop?on  of  new  usable  stores  of  value  controlled  by  a    few  key  global  consumer  brands  but  used  by  many  Shi4  6:  Alterna?ve  Currencies   Global  Scale  
  29. 29. Looking  ahead  there  seems  to  be  four  main  challenges    and  /  or  opportuni?es  for  leading  hotel  brand  owners  Key  Thoughts   Four  Challenges  Going  forward  how  best  should  hotel  companies…      1.  Take  advantage  of  trust  in  their  brands  to  deepen  rela3onships  2.  Be  proac3ve  to  poten3al  disrup?on  from  outside  and  within  3.  Challenge  themselves  on  their  individual  future  dis?nc?ve  capability  4.  BePer  use  new  partnerships  to  expand  reach  beyond  current  assets    
  30. 30. Future Agenda84 Brook StreetLondonW1K 5EH+44 203 0088 141futureagenda.orgtim.jones@futureagenda.orgThe  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  

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