Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012

on

  • 2,684 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
2,684
Views on SlideShare
2,576
Embed Views
108

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
25
Comments
0

2 Embeds 108

http://www.timjonesinsights.com 107
https://www.linkedin.com 1

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The  World  in  2020:   Drivers  of  Change  for  Healthcare      Dr  Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director  –  31  May  2012
  • 2. Context   Looking  Forward   Organisa4ons  planning  for  the  future  seek  both     Inside-­‐Out  and  Outside-­‐In  views  to  gain  a  rich,  credible   perspec4ve  of  what  will  and  what  could  possibly  happen  
  • 3. The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  programme  that  ran  throughout  2010  and  engaged  expert  input   from  over  1500  organisa4ons  to  gain  a  unique  global  view  
  • 4. Context   Core  Insights   From  this  first  Future  Agenda  programme,  we  highlighted     52  core  insights  which  give  us  a  view  on  emerging     drivers  of  change  to  challenge  exis4ng  perspec4ves    
  • 5. Imbalanced  Popula4on  Growth   Certain4es   By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,     most  in  places  least  able  to  accommodate  them  
  • 6. Key  Resource  Constraints   Certain4es     We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poli4cal  shortages  of  key   materials  that  will  result  in  major  changes  in  our  perspec4ves  
  • 7. Asian  Wealth  ShiX   Certain4es   The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  accelerates  back  to  the   East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  
  • 8. Ubiquitous  Data  Access   Certain4es   We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  network  connec4on  will  have  one  
  • 9. Implica?ons  for  the  Future  of  Healthcare?  
  • 10. Challenges  and  Internal  Solu4ons  Around  the  world  there  is  evident  agreement  on  some  of  the  core  challenges  for  healthcare  as  well  as  many  sugges4ons  of  how  to   improve  the  efficiency  and  effec4veness  of  its  delivery  
  • 11. Challenges  and  Internal  Solu4ons   •  Technology  to  cure  chronic  disease   •  Single  healthcare  systems   •  Preventa6ve  medicine  has  precedence   •  Focus  on  the  vulnerable   •  Focus  on  the  individual   •  Priva6ze  everything   •  Remote  support   •  Public  healthcare  priority   •  Decouple  spend  from  GDP  growth     On  both  sides  of  the  Atlan4c,  health  experts  and    commentators  alike  have  been  busy  iden4fying  lists  of    similar  op4ons  for  the  future  of  healthcare  in  the  West  
  • 12. Catalysts  for  Change   New  Technologies   +   New  Business  Models   +   Different  Payment  Systems     +     Change  of  Societal  Values   +   Poli?cal  Will  Most  see  some  common  catalysts  for  change  that  will  improve  healthcare…  But  many  are  choosing  to  ignore  two  issues  that   could  be  the  most  significant  for  las4ng  impact  
  • 13. #1:  The  End  of  Chimerica     #2:  Compe?ng  for  Cash  (in  the  West)     #3:  Affordable  Ageing     #4:  Personaliza?on  Premium  From  Outside  there  seems  to  be  Four  Key  Future  Challenges  
  • 14. #1:  The  End  of  Chimerica  Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 15. Developing  World  Urbanisa4on   Locality   By  2015,  32  people  an  hour  will  be  moving  into  Shanghai,    39  into  Kinshasa  and  Jakarta,  42  into  Mumbai  and  Karachi,  50   into  Dhaka  and  58  into  Lagos.    
  • 16. New  Middle  Class    By  2020  1bn  extra  consumers  will  enter  the  middle  class     with  increasing  spending  power  in  some  key  countries  
  • 17. Asian  Wealth  ShiX   Certain4es   Year at which GDP of China and India pass those of other countries Goldman Sachs 2004 The  regaining  of  global  leadership  by  China  and  India  is   happening  far  faster  than  many  have  been  predic4ng  
  • 18. Third  Global  Currency   Wealth   The  economic  rise  of  Asia  and  the  need  for  an  alterna4ve     to  the  US  dollar  as  the  world’s  reserve  currency  produces     a  parallel  broad-­‐basket  Asian  Currency  Unit  
  • 19. Value  Focus   China  2011  Net  Worth     Average  Fortune  per  capita   $100,000 2.3%  Popula6on  30m         37.0%  Popula6on  499m       $10,000   54.9%  Popula6on  740m       $1000 5.8%  Popula6on  31m        Credit  Suisse  -­‐  Global  Wealth  Report  2011   But  to  be  effec4ve  and  affordable  healthcare  for  the  next     billion  has  to  be  delivered  at  less  than  10%  of  current  costs  
  • 20. #1:  The  End  of  Chimerica  Asia  not  America  will  set  the  standards   Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 21. #2:  Compe?ng  for  Cash  (in  the  West)   Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 22. Total  US  Government  Spending  2011  ($bn)   Pensions    $339     Healthcare    $552      $995     Educa6on    $140      $278     Defense    $324     Welfare    $1,097     Protec6on    $753     Transporta6on    $892     Govt    $904     Other   Interest   Current  US  Government  spending  is  under     increased  pressure  and  looking  forward    all  departments  are  compe4ng  for  a  smaller  pie    
  • 23. Drone  Wars   Security   Intelligent  UAVs  choose  their  vic4ms  themselves     as  the  race  for  more  efficient  military  influence  leads     to  the  prolifera4on  of  assassina4on  tools  
  • 24. Solar  Sunrise   Security   Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security     and  climate  change  drives  the  investment  in     large-­‐scale  solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  
  • 25. Diabesity   Health   With  diabetes  consuming  up  to  5%  of  global  GDP,     stabilising  the  obesity  epidemic  will  be  the  primary   focus  for  many  na4ons’  healthcare  priori4es  
  • 26. Mass  Medical  Tourism   Health   Medical  tourism  goes  main-­‐stream  as  low-­‐cost  cardiac     surgery  and  broader  healthcare  provision  join     den4stry  and  cosme4c  surgery  to  have  global  impact  
  • 27. #2:  Compe?ng  for  Cash  (in  the  West)  Healthcare  funding  falls  below  GDP  Growth   Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 28. #3:  Affordable  Ageing  Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 29. Ac4ve  Elderly   Happiness   A  wealthier,  healthier,  older  genera4on  increasingly     engage  in  more  ac4ve  lives,  having  extended  careers  but  EU   dependency  ra4os  demand  doubling  of  produc4vity  
  • 30. China’s  Demographic   Happiness   India  believes  that  within  30  years  it  will  gain    a  ‘demographic  dividend’  over  China  as  the  one-­‐child    policy  impacts  the  economic  balance  of  Chinese  society  
  • 31. Automated  People  Care   Health   Robo4c  assisted  care  and  remote  monitoring  provide  viable   support  for  the  sick  and  elderly  so  that  people  can  stay  home    for  longer  -­‐  as  long  as  we  can  work  out  the  business  model.  
  • 32. Systemic  Euthanasia     Health       The  escala4ng  cost  of  suppor4ng  the  aged  beyond     natural  lifecycles  may  lead  to  wider  acceptance     of  assisted  suicide  in  many  regions  
  • 33. #3:  Affordable  Ageing   Healthcare  for  the  young  will  be  priori?sed  over  sick-­‐care  for  the  old   Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 34. #4:  Personaliza?on  Premium   Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 35. Pharma  Foods     Health     More  customised  foods,  blur  the  line  between     pharmaceu4cals  and  food  as  neutragenomics     allow  individualised  diets  to  fit  gene4c  profiles    
  • 36. Func4onal  Foods     Health     The  enthusiasm  in  many  quarters  for  consumer  focused     func4onal  foods  will  soon  come  head-­‐to-­‐head     with  the  margin  reality  for  more  efficient  retailers  
  • 37. Mass  Personaliza4on   Happiness     To  date  only  one  food  company  has  had  a  major     business  success  from  premium  personaliza4on  
  • 38. #4:  Personaliza?on  Premium    Consumers  only  pay  a  marginal  premium  for   personaliza?on  no  ma`er  how  beneficial     Four  Future  Challenges  
  • 39. “The  next  decade  is  not  likely  to  be  the  4me  for  change,  but  instead  a  4me  that  ‘stressors’  on  the  healthcare  system  become  progressively  evident.”§         The  issues  are  all  known  if  not  openly  shared  §         Affordable  healthcare  NOT  Sickcare  is  the  priority  §         Support  outside  of  hospital  is  pivotal  §         Preven?on  needs  proven  business  case  §         Many  systems  need  a  fundamental  rethink   Implica?ons  Summary  
  • 40. The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  To discuss this further please contact:Dr Tim JonesProgramme DirectorFuture Agenda84 Brook StreetLondonW1K 5EH+44 203 0088 141+44 780 1755 054tim.jones@futureagenda.orgfutureagenda.org