Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012

The World in 2020: Drivers of Change for Healthcare Dr Tim Jones – Programme Director – 31 May 2012

Context Looking Forward Organisa4ons planning for the future seek both Inside-‐Out and Outside-‐In views to gain a rich, credible perspec4ve of what will and what could possibly happen

The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight programme that ran throughout 2010 and engaged expert input from over 1500 organisa4ons to gain a unique global view

Context Core Insights From this ﬁrst Future Agenda programme, we highlighted 52 core insights which give us a view on emerging drivers of change to challenge exis4ng perspec4ves

Imbalanced Popula4on Growth Certain4es By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them

Key Resource Constraints Certain4es We will see economic, physical and poli4cal shortages of key materials that will result in major changes in our perspec4ves

Asian Wealth ShiX Certain4es The centre of gravity of global wealth accelerates back to the East with decreased inﬂuence for the US and Europe

Ubiquitous Data Access Certain4es We will be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can beneﬁt from a network connec4on will have one

Implica?ons for the Future of Healthcare?

Challenges and Internal Solu4ons Around the world there is evident agreement on some of the core challenges for healthcare as well as many sugges4ons of how to improve the eﬃciency and eﬀec4veness of its delivery

Challenges and Internal Solu4ons •  Technology to cure chronic disease •  Single healthcare systems •  Preventa6ve medicine has precedence •  Focus on the vulnerable •  Focus on the individual •  Priva6ze everything •  Remote support •  Public healthcare priority •  Decouple spend from GDP growth On both sides of the Atlan4c, health experts and commentators alike have been busy iden4fying lists of similar op4ons for the future of healthcare in the West

Catalysts for Change New Technologies + New Business Models + Diﬀerent Payment Systems + Change of Societal Values + Poli?cal Will Most see some common catalysts for change that will improve healthcare… But many are choosing to ignore two issues that could be the most signiﬁcant for las4ng impact

#1: The End of Chimerica #2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West) #3: Aﬀordable Ageing #4: Personaliza?on Premium From Outside there seems to be Four Key Future Challenges

#1: The End of Chimerica Four Future Challenges

Developing World Urbanisa4on Locality By 2015, 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi, 50 into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.

New Middle Class By 2020 1bn extra consumers will enter the middle class with increasing spending power in some key countries

Asian Wealth ShiX Certain4es Year at which GDP of China and India pass those of other countries Goldman Sachs 2004 The regaining of global leadership by China and India is happening far faster than many have been predic4ng

Third Global Currency Wealth The economic rise of Asia and the need for an alterna4ve to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency produces a parallel broad-‐basket Asian Currency Unit

Value Focus China 2011 Net Worth Average Fortune per capita $100,000 2.3% Popula6on 30m 37.0% Popula6on 499m $10,000 54.9% Popula6on 740m $1000 5.8% Popula6on 31m Credit Suisse -‐ Global Wealth Report 2011 But to be eﬀec4ve and aﬀordable healthcare for the next billion has to be delivered at less than 10% of current costs

#1: The End of Chimerica Asia not America will set the standards Four Future Challenges

#2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West) Four Future Challenges

Total US Government Spending 2011 ($bn) Pensions $339 Healthcare $552 $995 Educa6on $140 $278 Defense $324 Welfare $1,097 Protec6on $753 Transporta6on $892 Govt $904 Other Interest Current US Government spending is under increased pressure and looking forward all departments are compe4ng for a smaller pie

Drone Wars Security Intelligent UAVs choose their vic4ms themselves as the race for more eﬃcient military inﬂuence leads to the prolifera4on of assassina4on tools

Solar Sunrise Security Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the investment in large-‐scale solar as the leading renewable supply

Diabesity Health With diabetes consuming up to 5% of global GDP, stabilising the obesity epidemic will be the primary focus for many na4ons’ healthcare priori4es

Mass Medical Tourism Health Medical tourism goes main-‐stream as low-‐cost cardiac surgery and broader healthcare provision join den4stry and cosme4c surgery to have global impact

#2: Compe?ng for Cash (in the West) Healthcare funding falls below GDP Growth Four Future Challenges

#3: Aﬀordable Ageing Four Future Challenges

Ac4ve Elderly Happiness A wealthier, healthier, older genera4on increasingly engage in more ac4ve lives, having extended careers but EU dependency ra4os demand doubling of produc4vity

China’s Demographic Happiness India believes that within 30 years it will gain a ‘demographic dividend’ over China as the one-‐child policy impacts the economic balance of Chinese society

Automated People Care Health Robo4c assisted care and remote monitoring provide viable support for the sick and elderly so that people can stay home for longer -‐ as long as we can work out the business model.

Systemic Euthanasia Health The escala4ng cost of suppor4ng the aged beyond natural lifecycles may lead to wider acceptance of assisted suicide in many regions

#3: Aﬀordable Ageing Healthcare for the young will be priori?sed over sick-‐care for the old Four Future Challenges

#4: Personaliza?on Premium Four Future Challenges

Pharma Foods Health More customised foods, blur the line between pharmaceu4cals and food as neutragenomics allow individualised diets to ﬁt gene4c proﬁles

Func4onal Foods Health The enthusiasm in many quarters for consumer focused func4onal foods will soon come head-‐to-‐head with the margin reality for more eﬃcient retailers

Mass Personaliza4on Happiness To date only one food company has had a major business success from premium personaliza4on

#4: Personaliza?on Premium Consumers only pay a marginal premium for personaliza?on no ma`er how beneﬁcial Four Future Challenges

“The next decade is not likely to be the 4me for change, but instead a 4me that ‘stressors’ on the healthcare system become progressively evident.”§  The issues are all known if not openly shared §  Aﬀordable healthcare NOT Sickcare is the priority §  Support outside of hospital is pivotal §  Preven?on needs proven business case §  Many systems need a fundamental rethink Implica?ons Summary

The world’s leading open foresight program To discuss this further please contact:Dr Tim JonesProgramme DirectorFuture Agenda84 Brook StreetLondonW1K 5EH+44 203 0088 141+44 780 1755 054tim.jones@futureagenda.orgfutureagenda.org

Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012

by Tim Jones

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