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Adaptation to Climate Change An Initial View lr - Aug 2013

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This presentation summarises a research project undertaken in Q2 of 2013 looking at how different organisations are planning for adaptation to climate change. Based on discussions with leaders from …

This presentation summarises a research project undertaken in Q2 of 2013 looking at how different organisations are planning for adaptation to climate change. Based on discussions with leaders from over 20 companies around the world and supported by additional analysis, it looks at a number of issues in and around adaptation.

Key areas covered are:
Foresight and Future Agenda
The Context For Adaptation
Adaptation Policy and Plans
Business Risk
Variations by Geography
Impact of Cities
Levels of Adaptation Activity
Implications and Trade Offs

This is designed as an initial view of where thinking is currently at, what are some of the key shifts taking place and what are some of the major challenges. It is not meant to be the answer but more to layout the challenge and identify some of the key questions and trade offs we need to consider both globally and locally as we learn to live with effects of global warming and a 4C warmer world.

Further discussions on and around this topic will take place later this year as part of our ongoing refresh of emerging views in and around the impacts and implications of climate change.

The Future Agenda programme is the world’s first global open foresight initiative. Supported in 2010 by Vodafone Group, this is a major cross-discipline project that united some of the best minds from around the globe to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it mapped out the major issues, identified and discussed potential solutions, suggested the best ways forward and provided a unique open platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. The first programme involved over 2500 experts in 50 workshops around the world and engaged on-line with another 20,000 people in 147 different countries. Many companies, governments and other organsiations around the world are using insights from the Future Agenda to identify major growth platforms for the future. A second programme looking at the world in 2025 is scheduled for 2015.

Since the first programme, we have been undertaking a number of deep dives into specific areas of interest to companies. These have ranges from the emerging role of women in India, the increasing influence of cities and the future of work through to specific implications of emerging changes on sectors including banking, FMCG, transportation and healthcare. The Adaptation to Climate Change is the latest of these deep dives.

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  • 1. Adapta&on  to  Climate  Change:  An  Ini&al  View   1  August  2013  |  Tim  Jones  |  Dave  McCormick    
  • 2. Topics  covered  include:   §  Foresight  and  Future  Agenda   §  The  Context  For  Adapta@on   §  Adapta@on  Policy  and  Plans   §  Business  Risk   §  Varia@ons  by  Geography   §  Impact  of  Ci@es   §  Levels  of  Adapta@on  Ac@vity   §  Implica@ons  and  Trade  Offs         This  document  summarises  views  shared  by  several  companies  as   part  of  a  recent  project  with  BSR  to  explore  a@tudes  and   emerging  strategies  around  adapta&on  to  climate  change     Contents    
  • 3. As  change  accelerates  in  an  increasingly  connected  world,     more  companies  are  looking  further  ahead  to  beEer     understand  emerging  opportuni&es  and  challenges   Foresight  and  Future  Agenda    
  • 4. Organisa&ons  increasingly  want  to  iden&fy  and  understand    both  the  an&cipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beEer  prepared  for  the  future   Foresight  and  Future  Agenda    
  • 5. The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight    program  that  looks  at  the  big  issues  for  2020  so  that   organisa&ons  can  beEer  focus  and  s&mulate  innova&on   Foresight  and  Future  Agenda    
  • 6. The  Context  for  Adapta&on  
  • 7. As  we  experience  more  frequent  extreme  weather,  many     around  the  world  are  now  recognising  while  others  are  star&ng   to  respond  to  the  wider  impacts  of  climate  change   Extreme  Weather    
  • 8. Most  organisa&ons  have  primarily  been  focusing  efforts  on   changing  behaviours  and  strategies  in  order  to  mi&gate  the   effects  of  climate  change  and  change  direc&on   Mi&ga&on  of  Climate  Change    
  • 9. Much  of  the  ini&al  debate  and  ac&on  has  been  around  trying  to   keep  global  warming  under  20C  and  carbon  at  350  ppm  –   unfortunately  both  targets  that  now  look  unachievable   Mi&ga&on  of  Climate  Change    
  • 10. Many  see  that  at  the  current  rate  of  change,  we  may  well  hit   500ppm  of  CO2  concentra&on  by  2050  and  that,  on  average,  the   world  will  be  well  over  40C  warmer   The  Big  Challenge  Ahead    
  • 11. Although  mi&ga&on  is  a  primary  focus  for  many,  some     recognise  that  wai&ng  for  its  impact  is  not  enough  and  so  we    also  need  to  adapt  to  the  implica&ons  of  climate  change   Need  for  Adapta&on    
  • 12. Adapta&on  Policy  and  Plans  
  • 13. The  UNFCCC  supports  the  formula&on  and  implementa&on  of   na&onal  adapta&on  plans  and  programs  that  consider   approaches  to  address  damage  associated  with  climate  change   Adapta&on  Policy  and  Plans    
  • 14. Several  governments  around  the  world  are  seen  to  be  taking  a   lead  on  changing  the  regulatory  frameworks  around  adapta&on   and  resilience  to  climate  change   Adapta&on  Policy  and  Plans    
  • 15. Na&onal  adapta&on  plans  are  star&ng  to  drive  ac&on  in    specific  sectors  and  as  climate  is  seen  as  a  threat  to  na&onal   security  this  will  push  adapta&on  up  the  agenda   Adapta&on  Policy  and  Plans    
  • 16. Business  Risk  
  • 17. Adapta&on  to  climate  change  is  fast  emerging  on  to  the  risk   radars  of  a  number  of  leading  organisa&ons  and  governments   and  is  therefore  becoming  more  visible  to  society   Business  Risk  
  • 18. Several  organisa&ons  see  the  three  areas  of  climate  change   mi&ga&on,  resilience  and  adapta&on  through  their  own     view  of  business  risk  such  as  maintaining  water  supply     Business  Risk  
  • 19. For  example,  food  and  drink  companies  are  focusing  on    the  pressures  on  crop  varie&es  and  the  need  to  respond  to     such  issues  as  increased  drought  and  saltwater  tolerance     Business  Risk  
  • 20. Several  organisa&ons  are  also  recognising  wider  risks  around   such  issues  as  workforce  support,  security  of  supply  chains  and   poten&al  shiXs  in  associated  consumer  a@tudes   Business  Risk    
  • 21. For  some,  the  worry  of  focusing  on  the  immediate,  short-­‐term   visible  risk  may  result  in  ac&ons  that  have  a  longer  term     nega&ve  impact  with  unintended  consequences   Business  Risk  
  • 22. Physical   Environment   Changes   Opera@onal  Rules   and  Constraints   Social   Expecta@ons   and    ShiPs   As  a  result,  some  leading  organisa&ons  are  seeing  adapta&on  as   having  direct  linkages  to  their  ability  to  operate  globally  and   effec&vely  serve  customers,  stakeholders  and  society   Business  Risk  for  Adapta&on  
  • 23. Varia&ons  by  Geography  
  • 24. There  is  broad  recogni&on  that  adapta&on  measures  are     shaped  by  the  specific  context  and  so  adapta&on  efforts     must  be  focused  at  the  local  not  global  generic  level   Varia&ons  by  Geography  
  • 25. Globally  the  impact  of  climate  is  well  recognised  as  being   unevenly  distributed  with  some  countries  more  exposed  to   change  than  others   Varia&ons  by  Geography  
  • 26. India  is  one  loca&on  where  adapta&on  involves  trade-­‐offs   between  such  issues  and  clean  water  and  energy  supply  with   market-­‐orientated  regula&on  playing  a  key  role   Varia&ons  by  Geography  
  • 27. Insurance  companies  see  that  weather  related  catastrophes    have  tripled  since  1980:  In  2012  the  US  experienced     11  extreme  events  each  cos&ng  more  that  $1bn   Varia&ons  by  Geography  
  • 28. Impact  of  Ci&es  
  • 29. Adapta&on  is  at  the  forefront  of  thinking  and  development  for  all   ci&es  globally  with  organisa&ons  such  as  the  C40  and  ICLEI   increasingly  ac&ng  as  catalysts  for  this   Impact  of  Ci&es  
  • 30. Already  22  of  the  top  50  wealthiest  ci&es  are  prone  to    serious  flooding  which  will  also  impact  housing,  poverty,     cost  of  energy  and  social  breakdown   Impact  of  Ci&es    
  • 31. The  ten  most  ‘at  risk  ci&es’  globally  already  have  combined   popula&ons  of  over  150m  and  are  projected  by  the  UN  to  have   grown  by  a  further  50%  adding  another  75m  by  2025   Impact  of  Ci&es  
  • 32. Some  can  envisage  a  situa&on  where  major  ci&es  may  start  to   have  to  self-­‐insure  and  rebuild  –  In  the  wake  of  hurricane  Sandy   New  York  is  just  one  of  the  first  to  be  considering  this   Impact  of  Ci&es    
  • 33. Levels  of  Adapta&on  Ac&vity  
  • 34. While  mi&ga&on  of  climate  change  is  very  much  the  focus  for   many,  for  those  NGOs  who  are  star&ng  to  look  towards  a  40C   warmer  world,  adapta&on  has  been  gaining  trac&on     Levels  of  Ac&vity  
  • 35. However,  some  organisa&ons  do  not  talk  about  adapta&on  as     it  implies  defeat  on  mi&ga&on,  is  increasingly  poli&cal     and  may  well  alienate  key  stakeholders  and  customers     Levels  of  Ac&vity  
  • 36. Even  though  they  may  not  be  using  the  term  ‘adapta&on’,     others  are  star&ng  to  be  more  open  to  the  issues  raised     by  a  substan&al  shiX  in  the  world’s  climate     Levels  of  Ac&vity  
  • 37. Mi&ga&on  ac&on  is  significantly  more  mature  in  many   organiza&ons  and  for  the  majority  of  companies  it  is  s&ll  early   days  for  adapta&on  considera&ons     Levels  of  Ac&vity  
  • 38. We  see  a  matrix  of  different  types  of  responses  to  climate    change  adapta&on  that  looks  at  both  different  levels  of   adapta&on  and  well  as  levels  of  impact     Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 39. Many  organisa&ons  see  adapta&on  as  responding  to  climate   change  related  events  as  and  when  they  happen  –  be  that   flooding,  drought,  migra&on  or  other  socio-­‐economic  shiXs   Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 40. Some  companies,  especially  in  the  u&li&es  and  logis&cs  arenas,   are  adap&ng  to  increased  intensity  and  frequency  of  climate   events  and  broader  implica&ons   Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 41. A  number  of  food  and  drink  companies  are  increasingly  focused   on  key  impacts  beyond  their  immediate  fence-­‐line  looking     across  the  inbound  supply  chain  and  wider  business  systems   Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 42. Others  are  moving  ahead  to  focus  on  the  impacts  of  climate   change  across  the  board  and  extending  approaches  to  help  local   suppliers  and  their  communi&es  be  beEer  prepared   Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 43. And  some  organisa&ons  have  been  suppor&ng  collabora&ve   projects  to  explore  how  they  could  best  enable  broader  societal   and  eco  systems  to  beEer  adapt  to  climate  change   Levels  of  Ac&vity   Adapt to increased intensity and frequency of climate events Adapt to impacts of climate change Respond to climate events Adapt to 4 degrees warmer Adaptation: The Context Insurance   Policy   Na@onal  Security   Infrastructure   Business  Systems   Social  Systems   Level of Impact LevelofAdaptation
  • 44. Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 45. There  is  a  need  for  greater  human  adapta&on  to  climate     change  –  around  workforces  and  communi&es  as  well  as   preparing  future  genera&ons  and  changing  a@tudes   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 46. It  is  clear  that  as  we  move  forward  adapta&on  will  play  an   increasingly  important  role  in  defining  and  shaping  both   governmental  and  business  a@tudes  and  risk  strategies   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs    
  • 47. Although  there  are  clear  gaps  around  issues  such  as  alignment   between  policy  and  business  ac&ons,  adapta&on  will  become  a   significant  issue  for  a  wide  range  of  organisa&ons   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 48. Enabling  long  term  planning  for  adapta&on  is  difficult  as  short-­‐ termism  and  quick  win  opportuni&es  are  focusing  thinking  and   priority  ac&ons  in  many  organisa&ons   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 49. While  some  seek  the  financial  jus&fica&on  for  inves&ng  in   adapta&on,  others  are  seeing  it  as  part  of  doing  good  business   where  the  benefit  is  shared  by  many   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 50. The  reality  facing  many  is  that  we  need  to  act  now  and  this   requires  both  a  clearer  view  of  the  likely  impacts  of  adapta&on  as   well  as  beEer  understanding  the  specific  implica&ons   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs    
  • 51. For  major  climate  change  events  you  may  have  5  years  of   planning  but  only  45  minutes  to  act,  and  then  an  extra  5  minutes   of  &me  saved  is  worth  a  lot   Implica&ons  and  Trade  Offs  
  • 52. Physical   Environment   Changes   Opera@onal  Rules   and  Constraints   Social   Expecta@ons   and  ShiPs   Recognise  the   Pivotal  Gaps  and   Challenges   Understand  and   Quan@fy  the   Impact   Align  Objec@ves  for   Business,  Systems   and  Society     Define  the  Local   Implica@ons  and   Op@ons   Establish   Collabora@on  on   Core  Ac@vi@es   Those  organisa&ons  seeing  adapta&on  as  a  key  challenge  are   now  looking  to  form  partnerships  to  collec&vely  take  on  the   pivotal  challenges  locally   Summary  
  • 53. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org tim.jones@futureagenda.org The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  

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