2013 瑪亞學院 系列講座

Industry Analysis
產業分析

蔡鴻德執行長

瑪亞投資有限公司 Markis Capital Limited
Contents
2




Industry Basics
Analytical methods
 PEST

analysis
 SWOT analysis
 5 forces analysis
 Total Available...
Method vs. Methodology
3

Source: MIC
Typical Reports
4











應用產品發展趨勢
產業發展趨勢
大廠策略分析
市場競爭力分析
Quarterly Market Share / Unit Shipment Tracker
Worldw...
Analytical Framework (DIEM)
5

Define
• Scope of Industry
• Investment Mandate
• Exclusions

Monitor

Identify

• Review
•...
Four stages of the industry life cycle
6

1.
2.
3.
4.

Pioneer.
Growth.
Mature.
Decline.

Revenue
Pioneer

Growth

Decline...
Stock Characteristics
7



Growth Stocks




accelerating sales and high profit margins during all phases of the
busine...
8

Analytical Models
Industry Analysis Models
9

1.
2.
3.
4.

Industry classification
External factor review – PEST
Competitive Analysis – Five...
Industry Classification
10











Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS): 10大類、24中類、
68小類、154細類
Industry...
PEST - Macro Environment Analysis
11





PEST(LE) analysis describes a framework used to scan
the organization’s extern...
Five Forces
12

New Entrants

Buyers

Competitors
Suppliers

Substitutes
SWOT Analysis
13

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats
BCG Growth Share Matrix
14

Star

Question Marks

Cash Cow

Dog
Product Life Cycle
15

Source: Olga Tarkovskiy
Finding Data
16







Google
Wikipedia
SSRN
Associations & Industry Data
Example: Market Share, Growth
17

Tablet Shipments Forecast to Top Total PC Shipments in the Fourth Quarter of 2013
and An...
Value Creation & Business Models
18





This element focuses on the sources of value that can be
extracted through the ...
Industry Drivers & Inhibitors
19



Technology Considerations






Industry Specific Considerations







Wheth...
Demand Forecasting
20

To begin with global industry
analysis, an estimation of demand
is needed.

Usual metrics includes ...
Estimating Supply
21

Design Capacity
Yield Rate

Production Capacity
Utilization Rate
Inventory
Shipment Rate
Effective S...
Pricing & Margins
22

300ft+ jack-ups in SE Asia

Decreasing US GoM jack-up rates

(Operating Margins)

(Day Rates)
Concentration Ratio
23



The concentration ratio is the measure of the
percentage market share in an industry held by th...
Herfindahl Index
24





The Herfindahl index is simply the sum of the squares
of the market shares for each firm within...
Other methods / Issues
25









Inventory Analysis
Book to Bill Ratio
Capacity Database
Total Available Market / ...
26

Example Studies
Example: Airline Industry
27



Boeing vs. Airbus – What is the difference?
 In

their outlook? Segmentation? Growth rat...
Example: Mobile Handset
28



Question – Is HTC competitive?










What is your market assessment? Technology ...
Example: Taiwan Tech Inventory
29





Sub-Sector Segmentation
Inventory Days
Cash Conversion Cycle
Example: Taiwan Industry Valuations
30




PE Band
PB Band
Resources
31











瑪亞投資 mcl.tw/Library102
工研院 產業情報網 http://ieknet.iek.org.tw/index.jsp
工研院 產業學習網 http://colle...
Q&A

蔡鴻德 (Teddy H. Tsai)
董事暨執行長 (Director & CEO)

32

801 高雄市前金區大同二路20號9樓之2
電話: +886-7-241-2329 分機 123
手機: 0910723698
電子郵件...
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"Industry Analysis" Seminar from a sell-side analyst

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Seminar on "Industry Analysis" , held on 2013, Oct 18 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

An introductory presentation on Industry Analysis. Taught in Mandarin Chinese with English slides. Presented by the CEO of Markis Capital Ltd, Teddy Tsai, a former sell-side research analyst.

Recorded with Google Hangouts on Air

Google+: https://plus.google.com/u/2/b/113975389598620065529
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MarkisTW/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MarkisAsia
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/user/MarkisAsia
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/company/markis-capital-limited?trk=company_name
SlideShare: https://www.slideshare.net/thtsai77/

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"Industry Analysis" Seminar from a sell-side analyst

  1. 1. 2013 瑪亞學院 系列講座 Industry Analysis 產業分析 蔡鴻德執行長 瑪亞投資有限公司 Markis Capital Limited
  2. 2. Contents 2   Industry Basics Analytical methods  PEST analysis  SWOT analysis  5 forces analysis  Total Available Market / Market Sizing  Trend growth analysis  Supply & Demand  Example studies
  3. 3. Method vs. Methodology 3 Source: MIC
  4. 4. Typical Reports 4          應用產品發展趨勢 產業發展趨勢 大廠策略分析 市場競爭力分析 Quarterly Market Share / Unit Shipment Tracker Worldwide IT Spending Price Index Forecasts Market Review & 2013-2017 Forecasts Industry Commentary, Market Trends, Monthly Insights
  5. 5. Analytical Framework (DIEM) 5 Define • Scope of Industry • Investment Mandate • Exclusions Monitor Identify • Review • Consolidate Data • Monitor Changes • Key Drivers • Pros & Cons • Internal & External Factors Evaluate • Intensity • Market share • Growth Rates
  6. 6. Four stages of the industry life cycle 6 1. 2. 3. 4. Pioneer. Growth. Mature. Decline. Revenue Pioneer Growth Decline Mature Time
  7. 7. Stock Characteristics 7  Growth Stocks   accelerating sales and high profit margins during all phases of the business cycle Defensive Stocks Typically in the mature phase of the life cycle  Demand relatively independent of the business cycle   Cyclical Stocks   Product demand tends to increase during both the expansion and peak phases and drop significantly during the recessionary phase Speculative Stocks  company that invests in a business with an uncertain outcome.
  8. 8. 8 Analytical Models
  9. 9. Industry Analysis Models 9 1. 2. 3. 4. Industry classification External factor review – PEST Competitive Analysis – Five Forces, SWOT Supply, Demand, and Pricing
  10. 10. Industry Classification 10       Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS): 10大類、24中類、 68小類、154細類 Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB): 10大類、19中類、41 小類、114細類、75,000 個股 Thomson Reuters Business Classification (TRBC): 10大類、25 中類、52小類、124細類 TSE產業別:目前為29類 TEJ產業別: 目前為88類, 子產業為167類 主計處產業名: 修訂結果計分為 19大類、89 中類、254 小類、 551 細類 Source: DGBAS,TEJ, ICB, MSCI, S&P, Wikipedia
  11. 11. PEST - Macro Environment Analysis 11   PEST(LE) analysis describes a framework used to scan the organization’s external macro environment. PEST(LE) stands for       Political Economic Social Technological Legal Environmental
  12. 12. Five Forces 12 New Entrants Buyers Competitors Suppliers Substitutes
  13. 13. SWOT Analysis 13 Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
  14. 14. BCG Growth Share Matrix 14 Star Question Marks Cash Cow Dog
  15. 15. Product Life Cycle 15 Source: Olga Tarkovskiy
  16. 16. Finding Data 16     Google Wikipedia SSRN Associations & Industry Data
  17. 17. Example: Market Share, Growth 17 Tablet Shipments Forecast to Top Total PC Shipments in the Fourth Quarter of 2013 and Annually by 2015 Product Category 2013 Unit Shipments 2013 Market Share 2017 Unit Shipments 2017 Market Share 2013—2017 Growth Desktop PC 134.4 8.6% 123.11 5% -8.4% Portable PC 180.9 11.6% 196.6 8% 8.7% Tablet 227.3 14.6% 406.8 16.5% 78.9% 1,013.2 65.1% 1,733.9 70.5% 71.1% 1,556 100% 2,460.5 100% 58.1% Smartphone Total The worldwide smart connected device market will again exhibit double-digit year-over-year growth of 10.6% in 2013, but this growth will gradually slow to just 3.1% in 2017. Source: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24314413
  18. 18. Value Creation & Business Models 18   This element focuses on the sources of value that can be extracted through the value chain. The value chain consists of suppliers of raw materials, but also the delivery firms that deliver the finished product to the consumers Business Models – The rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value Bricks & Clicks Cutting out the middleman Outsourcing Source: Wikipedia Direct Sales MLM / Pyramid Scheme Franchise Razor & Blades Freemium Low Cost Carrier
  19. 19. Industry Drivers & Inhibitors 19  Technology Considerations     Industry Specific Considerations     Whether or not the innovation will be successful. Whether or not competition from new technologies will supplant the old technology. What are the industry drivers, technical barriers? Competition Supply Drivers Demand Drivers Develop and Use Checklists & Frameworks!
  20. 20. Demand Forecasting 20 To begin with global industry analysis, an estimation of demand is needed. Usual metrics includes global GDP, consumer spending data, export/import figures, industry utilization, price and volume data, consumption data. Regional Dynamics Global Industry Trends Productlevel Input/ Outputs Demand Coverage
  21. 21. Estimating Supply 21 Design Capacity Yield Rate Production Capacity Utilization Rate Inventory Shipment Rate Effective Supply Supply is often a matter of definition. Sometimes more transparent, appleto-apple comparisons are important. Many Industries have their own terminology. (UTR, Yield, ATK/RTK, ARPU, SSS, ton-miles, throughput, etc.)
  22. 22. Pricing & Margins 22 300ft+ jack-ups in SE Asia Decreasing US GoM jack-up rates (Operating Margins) (Day Rates)
  23. 23. Concentration Ratio 23  The concentration ratio is the measure of the percentage market share in an industry held by the largest firms within that industry. For example, suppose 3 firms dominate a specific industry, such as beverages, holding 80% market share of the beverage industry. The concentration ratio of the beverage industry would thus be 80%.
  24. 24. Herfindahl Index 24   The Herfindahl index is simply the sum of the squares of the market shares for each firm within the industry and is always less than one. Herfindahl index = 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑥 2
  25. 25. Other methods / Issues 25       Inventory Analysis Book to Bill Ratio Capacity Database Total Available Market / Serviceable Market / Market Share Market Segmentation CAGR = 𝐸𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 1 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 ex: (2017/2013)^(1/5)-1 −1
  26. 26. 26 Example Studies
  27. 27. Example: Airline Industry 27  Boeing vs. Airbus – What is the difference?  In their outlook? Segmentation? Growth rates?  Impact on business model?  Impact on share price & earnings?   http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/cmo/ http://www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2013/
  28. 28. Example: Mobile Handset 28  Question – Is HTC competitive?        What is your market assessment? Technology assessment? What is the supply chain? Who benefits? Key Words – mobile handset market share http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24302813 https://www.abiresearch.com/research/service/mobile-devices/ http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2573415 http://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-WirelessCommunications/Pages/Low-End-Smartphones-Boost-MarketGrowth.aspx
  29. 29. Example: Taiwan Tech Inventory 29    Sub-Sector Segmentation Inventory Days Cash Conversion Cycle
  30. 30. Example: Taiwan Industry Valuations 30   PE Band PB Band
  31. 31. Resources 31         瑪亞投資 mcl.tw/Library102 工研院 產業情報網 http://ieknet.iek.org.tw/index.jsp 工研院 產業學習網 http://college.itri.org.tw/ 資策會 產業情報研究所 http://mic.iii.org.tw/ 電子時報 http://www.digitimes.com.tw/ DisplaySearch http://www.displaysearch.com.tw/ 拓墣產業研究所 http://www.topology.com.tw 集邦科技 http://www.dramexchange.com/ 資料來源:瑪亞投資
  32. 32. Q&A 蔡鴻德 (Teddy H. Tsai) 董事暨執行長 (Director & CEO) 32 801 高雄市前金區大同二路20號9樓之2 電話: +886-7-241-2329 分機 123 手機: 0910723698 電子郵件: teddy.tsai@markis.asia 網站: http://www.markis.tw

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