Financial Modeling Seminar

630 views

Published on

Basics of Financial Modeling - Financial Statement Analysis, Excel Functions (vlookup, sum, indirect, offset, column, iserr, if, datevalue, concatenate, etc.
Forecasting sales, Cost breakdown, cash flow & expenses, sensitivity table, weighted average shares, rolling averages.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
630
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
17
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Financial Modeling Seminar

  1. 1. 2013 瑪亞學院 系列講座 Financial Modeling 財務模型實務 蔡鴻德執行長 瑪亞投資有限公司 Markis Capital Limited
  2. 2. Financial Statements Analysis 2 Over Time Ratios Analysis vs. Metrics Vs. Peers
  3. 3. Financial Statements 3 Income Statement • A measure of "flow" • Aka Profit & Loss Statement • 2 Typical Styles Cash Flow Statement • A measure of "flow" • 3 components – Operating Investing, Financing • 2 styles of Operating CF Balance Sheet Shareholders' Equity (Optional) • A "snapshot" • 3 components – Assets, Liabilities, and Equity • A measure of "flow" / change • Indicates changes in shareholders equity
  4. 4. 4 Functions
  5. 5. VLOOKUP(Match()) 5  =VLOOKUP($A7,Q_Actual!$1:$65536,MATCH(L$1, Q_Actual!$1:$1),FALSE)/1000
  6. 6. SUM(INDIRECT…. 6  =SUM(INDIRECT("Semi!"&"R"&ROW()&"C"&F$6,FAL SE):INDIRECT("Semi!"&"R"&ROW()&"C"&F$7,FALSE) )  F$6 = Columnstart  F$7 = Columnend  =SUM(INDIRECT("A2:A" & B1))
  7. 7. SUM(OFFSET()) 7  SUM( OFFSET( )) calculates the sum of the cell or range of cells returned by the OFFSET( ) function  =SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,n,1)) If n = 10, then it sums A1:A10 =SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,1,n)) If n = 10, then it sums A1:J1 =SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,n,y)) If n = 5 and y = 10, then it sums A1:J5
  8. 8. Standard Quarterly Tables 8       Reported vs. Estimates New vs. Old Estimates (Estimate Revisions) Quarterly Changes (YoY, QoQ, Margins) Earnings Bridge Sales Breakdown Pie Chart P&Q Column & Line Chart
  9. 9. P&Q Column & Line Chart 9
  10. 10. Formatting 10  First Column "n.m"  =IF(COLUMN()=2,"n.m.",C98-B98)  Estimates vs. Reported Variance  =IF(ISERR(P6-Q6),"n.a.",P6-Q6)  % Difference  =IF(Q6<0,(IF(P6>0,"n.m",-(P6/Q6-1))),P6/Q6-1)  Concatenate, Right, Left, Mid  Shorter version: =DATEVALUE(C2&"-"&B2&"-"&D2)
  11. 11. 11 Usages
  12. 12. Forecasting Sales 12  YoY/QoQ % Growth By Geography  By Business Units   Market Share (%)  By Product  PxQ Capacity * Utilization Rate * Yield = Quantity  Unit Price & FX Rate = Price   Incremental Sales  LY Sales + New Stores * Sales / New Stores  Monthly Sales
  13. 13. Cost Breakdown 13  Create Pie Chart of Cost Breakdown – typical cost structures  Fixed Costs,Variable Costs, Semi-Variable Costs  Raw Materials, WIP, Finished Goods  Overhead  Depreciation
  14. 14. Cash Flow & Expenses 14  The Relationship between Depreciation & Capital Expenditures  The Choice of Operating Leases, Capital Leases, and Purchasing
  15. 15. Sensitivity Table 15  What-if Analysis  Data Table vs. Row DCF sensitivity table WACC  Column ### 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 0.5% 3.7 5.8 5.8 3.7 1.0 Terminal value growth 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 5.1 7.0 9.7 7.8 10.7 15.2 7.8 10.7 15.2 5.1 7.0 9.7 1.7 2.7 3.9 4.5% 13.9 23.4 23.4 13.9 5.5
  16. 16. Weighted Average Shares 16  =(A)*((D)/360)*(C)+(B )*(1-((D)/360)-(E)  =D31*(D36/360)+D35* (E36/360)+E35*(F36/36 0)+F35*(G36/360) Shares (2615) Dividend day Shares before ex-dividend (i) Surplus capital CB Cancellation of treasury stock Shares after ex-dividend (ii) Day in dividend (1-360) (iii) Weighted average of shares Shares (2330) Dividend day Shares before ex-dividend (A) Shares after ex-dividend (B) Split mulitplier (C) Day in dividend (1-360) (D) WAVG (without cutting SHBS) Shares held by subsidiaries ( E) Weighted average of shares 2008/1/31 20,722,915 0 60,663 0 20,783,578 29 2008/8/14 20,783,578 1,039,179 0 0 21,822,757 194 2008/11/5 21,822,757 0 0 47,025 21,775,733 81 21,166,842 04/06/14 202,666,190 233,765,970 0.8765 163 232,614,053 443,304 232,170,749 56
  17. 17. Rolling Average 17  Useful in filling in missing data between data points  =(C27-C15)/12+C15
  18. 18. Q&A 蔡鴻德 (Teddy H. Tsai) 董事暨執行長 (Director & CEO) 18 801 高雄市前金區大同二路20號9樓之2 電話: +886-7-241-2329 分機 123 手機: 0910723698 電子郵件: teddy.tsai@markis.asia 網站: http://www.markis.tw

×