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The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009
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    The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009 The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009 Presentation Transcript

    • Select Views of the North American Truckload Freight Transportation Marketplace, Past & Present Including Its Key* TL and Dedicated Service Participants. *Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., and U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available. Thom A. Williams, managing director March 27, 2010
    • The Changing Times: The Good: The Bad: Vs. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
    • And The Ugly: AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues, Carrier Truckload CH Robinson Revenues, 2006 thru 2009 (Excluding Fuel Surcharges): Trucking Revenues, US$s in thousands US$s in thousands $2,600,000 $6,000,000 $2,400,000 $5,500,000 $2,200,000 $5,000,000 $2,000,000 Despite that it neither owns trucks nor operates as a Contract Carrier, CHRW generates TL But the real truckers are yet $4,500,000 $1,800,000 revenues equaling Swift, WERN, LSTR and JBHT another story: Seldom have combined! E.g.: ~$6.1 bil. in '08; $5.2 bil. in '09. so many worked so long, and driven so many miles, $4,000,000 $1,600,000 to accomplish little more than staying alive! $3,500,000 $1,400,000 $3,000,000 $1,200,000 CAUSE FOR CONCERN: $2,500,000 $1,000,000 Major shippers' growing adoptions of truckload freight transportation procurement, spend optimization, and managed bidding program software packages and related services (from Manugistics, LeanLogistics, Manhattan $800,000 Associates, and others) increasingly challenge TL carriers' revenue and profit growth prospects. $2,000,000 $600,000 $1,500,000 $400,000 $1,000,000 $200,000 $500,000 $0 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 FrozenFood P.A.M. USA Truck Marten Universal Celadon Heartland Ryder-DCC est. Covenant Con-way Knight TransForce J.B. Hunt Landstar Werner Swift CH Robinson Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues, Carrier Truckload Revenues, 2006 thru 2009 (Including Fuel Surcharges): Avg. On-road Diesel US$s in thousands Price, US$s/gal. $3,200,000 $4.000 $3,000,000 $3.807 $2,800,000 $3.500 $2,600,000 $2,400,000 $3.000 $2,200,000 $2.882 $2,000,000 $2.705 $2.500 $2.467 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $2.000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1.500 $1,000,000 $800,000 $1.000 $600,000 $400,000 $0.500 $200,000 $0 $0.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 FrozenFood P.A.M. USATrk. Universal Marten Heartland Ryder - DCC Celadon Covenant Con-way Knight TransForce J.B.Hunt Landstar Werner Swift National avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Total Truckload Miles: Total miles driven Cass Freight Index re: Shipment Volumes (loaded + empty) (Jan. 1990 = 1.00) in thousands 1.40 1,800,000 1,600,000 1.30 1.278 1.249 Swift 1,400,000 1.20 1,200,000 1.10 1.100 1,000,000 1.00 To understand why truckload freight movements and truckers' miles declined so harshly, Werner according to the new and ingenious Ceridian-UCLA "PCI Index," we need only look to the 800,000 three components of GDP (goods, services, and structures). Services comprise 63% of GDP and never seem to decline. The volatility lies in Goods and Structures — the 37% of GDP that 0.920 0.90 gets loaded onto and transported via trucks. When we stopped building and remodeling and consumers ceased buying durable goods, 600,000 truckload freight assignments "fell off the cliff." 0.80 400,000 Covenant Knight Celadon Con-way P.A.M. 0.70 200,000 USA Truck Marten 0.60 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Swift Werner Covenant Knight Celadon Con-way P.A.M. USA Truck Marten CassFreightIndex - Shipments Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders. Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, Cass Info Systems, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • YE 2006 Truckload Carriers' Relative Marketshares How these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$12.0 billion of '06 truckload revenues (FSC excluded): Marten USA Truck P.A.M. FrozenFood Con-way Celadon 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% Universal 3% 4% Ryder-DCC est. 4% Swift 21% Heartland, 4% Knight, 5% Covenant, 5% J.B. Hunt TransForce 13% 5% Landstar Werner 11% 13% Swift J.B. Hunt Werner Landstar TransForce Covenant Knight Heartland Ryder-DCC est. Universal Celadon Marten USA Truck P.A.M. FrozenFood Con-way Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. U.S. Express Enterprises Inc. (XPRSA) was publicly held throughout 2006 and then generated ~$1.2 billion of TL and Dedicated trucking revenues (FSC excluded). XPRSA was privatized during 2007 via a deal in which Max Fuller and Pat Quinn paid ~$192 million cash to shareholders for the ~9.5 million XPRSA common shares not owned by Fuller & Quinn. Subsequent details of XPRSA are thus unavailable. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • 2009 Truckload Carriers' Relative Marketshares How these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$10.3 billion of '09 truckload revenues (FSC excluded): As to relative market shares of base revenues, little, if anything, has changed in the three years since YE 2006! In May 2007, Jerry Moyes, Universal P.A.M. et al., privatized the Marten USA Truck FrozenFood 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% publicly-held Swift, by Celadon 4% paying $1.52 billion for the Heartland 4% 61.7% of SWFT's Swift outstanding shares not Ryder-DCC 20% owned by Moyes. By YE est. 4% '07 Swift had recorded ~$258 million of goodwill Covenant, 5% & other asset impairment charges as to that deal. Con-way, 5% Werner Knight 12% 5% TransForce 6% J.B. Hunt Landstar 11% 11% Only JBHT evidences significant progress with intentional downsizing of its standard truckload CNW acquired TL carrier CFI during operations, successfully opting to focus on the more- August 2007 for ~$752 million. CFI profitable itermodal and other alternatives. disclosed '06 revenues of ~$427 million. During '09 CNW recorded a CFI-related goodwill impairment charge of ~$135 million as to that purchase. Swift Werner Landstar J.B. Hunt TransForce Knight Con-way Covenant Ryder-DCC est. Heartland Celadon Marten USA Truck Universal P.A.M. FrozenFood Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes Truckload Operating Incomes, (after Goodwill impairment charges) , 2006 thru 2009 US$s in thousands $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 Swift, $120,317 Werner, $84,524 $70,000 Knight, $79,680 Heartland, $78,964 JBHT, $51,442 $20,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 ($30,000) Covenant -$55,679 ($80,000) Con-way -$106,971 Swift -$126,386 ($130,000) FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Covenant est. Universal est. Celadon TransForce Con-way est. Marten Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est. Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes Truckload Operating Incomes, (excluding Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 vs. 2009 US$s in thousands $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 Swift Werner Heartland Knight $70,000 TransForce J.B.Hunt Marten Landstar est. Ryder-DCC Celadon Covenant Universal Con-way $20,000 2006 2009 USATrk. FrozenFood P.A.M. ($30,000) FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Universal est. Covenant est. Celadon TransForce Marten Con-way est. Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est. Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' TL Revenues (inc. FSC) Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles): Revenue per total Avg. On-road Diesel mile, US$s Price, US$s/gal. $2.00 $4.000 $3.807 $3.500 $2.882 $3.000 $2.705 $1.75 $2.467 $2.500 Marten $1.72 $2.000 Werner, $1.64 FrozenFood, $1.58 Swift, $1.57 $1.500 Celadon, $1.54 $1.50 USA Truck, $1.52 Con-way, $1.48 Might this be a textbook display of Swarm Intelligence? $1.000 Covenant, $1.45 These leading, and many lesser, truckers incessantly bid against each other, and themselves, in well-executed bidding programs P.A.M., $1.43 orchestrated by major shippers, yet not one within the swarm of major truckload carriers invites multiple shippers to open bidding $0.500 for the carrier's available capacity. Perhaps they should experiment on eBay! $1.25 $0.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 P.A.M. Covenant Con-way USA Truck Celadon Swift FrozenFood Werner Marten National avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders. Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' TL Operating Incomes (excluding Goodwill impairment charges), Opr. Income per Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles): total mile, US$s $0.340 $0.320 Knight $0.300 $0.323 $0.280 $0.260 $0.240 $0.220 Knight $0.200 $0.220 $0.180 $0.160 Werner, $0.153 $0.140 Marten, $0.138 Marten, $0.099 Swift, $0.132 Werner, $0.097 $0.120 P.A.M. $0.128 Swift, $0.081 $0.100 Con-way, $0.073 Celadon, $0.108 Celadon, $0.031 $0.080 USA Covenant, $0.009 $0.060 Truck $0.089 $0.040 $0.020 Covenant, $0.023 $0.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 -$0.020 USA Truck, -$0.031 Covenant, -$0.028 -$0.040 -$0.060 -$0.080 Covenant, -$0.085 P.A.M., -$0.095 -$0.100 P.A.M. USA Truck Covenant Celadon Con-way Swift Werner Marten Knight Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Avg. Revenues (inc. FSC) Truckload Revenues, per Truck/Month, '06 vs. '09: US$s in thousands $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 CNW WERN $16,313 CVTI MRTN $14,000 KNX JBHT FFEX USAK HTLD CGI PTSI LSTR $12,000 Swift $10,000 UACL $8,000 $9,422 $6,000 Misery loves company! Sharp fall-offs of shipping volumes, combined with intense pricing competitions, $4,000 have much narrowed the bands of measured per-truck revenue productivity. Note, e.g, that HTLD's ~35% decline left WERN as the leader. Using near identical tools (trucks & trailers), providing near identical services, and facing shippers' constant $2,000 bidding wars, the major truckload carriers have increasing difficulties faring much better than their industy cousins! $0 2006 2009 Universal Swift Landstar P.A.M. Celadon FrozenFood USA Truck Heartland JB Hunt Knight Covenant Marten Con-way Werner Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Net Fuel Costs (Fuel expense, less FSC revenue) Per TL Mile: $0.330 $0.300 Fuel surcharge revenues have slightly reduced many carriers' unrecovered fuel expense per total mile; $0.270 but not at Covenant! $0.240 $0.210 $0.219 Marten $0.214 $0.217 $0.211 Covenant, $0.203 $0.198 P.A.M., $0.193 USA Truck, $0.188 $0.180 $0.189 Knight $0.150 $0.166 $0.144 Celadon, $0.140 Con-way $0.120 $0.136 $0.090 $0.099 Werner $0.081 $0.060 $0.095 Swift $0.074 $0.030 $0.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 Marten Covenant P.A.M. USA Truck Knight Celadon Con-way Werner Swift Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' TL Fuel Expense (net of FSC revenue), as % of base TL revenues: USA Truck, 16.54% FrozenFood, 16.08% Covenant, 15.99% P.A.M. 15.00% P.A.M., 15.46% 15.68% Marten, 14.85% FrozenFood, 14.60% Covenant, 14.57% Marten, 14.43% USA Truck, 14.24% J.B. Hunt, Heartland 13.96% 13.22% J.B. Knight, 12.51% Heartland, Hunt 12.54% 12.47% Knight, Celadon, 10.72% 11.29%Celadon, 10.95% 10.00% Con-way, 10.21% Werner, 6.78% Swift, 6.59% Werner, 5.00% 5.64% Are Swift and Werner uniquely Swift, 5.34% astute buyers of fuel and super- efficient collectors of FSCs? Or are the other carriers just sloppy? 5% to 10% of base revenue is far too much to leave behind! 0.00% 2006 2009 FrozenFood Covenant P.A.M. Marten USA Truck J.B. Hunt Heartland Knight Celadon Con-way Werner Swift Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • Leading Carriers' Truckload Fleet Sizes, 2009 vs. 2006 Total Class 8 Trucks in Truckload Service FrozenFood, 1,530 P.A.M., 1,730 Marten, 2,264 USA Truck, 2,338 Con-way, 2,900 Since YE 2006, these leading truckload carriers' Heartland, 2,914 capacities (trucks available for dispatch) 2009 have declined much less than Covenant, 3,111 certain industry observers predicted. Celadon, 3,168 Universal, 3,387 Knight, 3,718 Werner, 7,321 JB Hunt, 7,502 Landstar, 8,779 Swift, 16,686 FrozenFood, 1,972 P.A.M., 1,998 Marten, 2,504 USA Truck, 2,512 Con-way, 2,513 Heartland, 2,363 2006 Covenant, 3,546 Celadon, 2,732 Universal, 3,420 Knight, 3,446 Werner, 8,757 JB Hunt, 10,523 Landstar, 8,967 Swift, 17,929 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000. Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
    • For-hire Truckload Fleet Sizes @ YE 2009, the 28 Current Leaders: Total Class 8 Trucks in Truckload Tervice FrozenFood, 1,530 P.A.M., 1,730 Marten, 2,264 USA Truck, 2,338 The 14 U.S. truckload Con-way, 2,900 carriers herein detailed Heartland, 2,914 operate ~67,000 Covenant, 3,111 class 8 tractors in the Celadon, 3,168 TL & dedicated markets. Universal, 3,387 Knight, 3,718 Werner, 7,321 JB Hunt, 7,502 Landstar, 8,779 Swift, 16,686 1 AAA Cooper, 2,106 Mercer, 2,137 Anderson, 2,309 Western Express, 2,590 Another 14 U.S. truckload Dart, 2,708 carriers (all privately-held) Comcar, 3,088 operate ~63,800 additional Ruan, 3,333 class 8 tractors in the same CRST, 3,357 TL & dedicated markets. Prime, 3,555 CR England, 3,600 Crete, 5,398 Greatwide, 5,897 U.S. Xpress, 8,453 Schneider National, 15,300 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.
    • Leading For-hire TL Carriers' Truckload Fleets, in Context: Total Class 8 Trucks in Truckload Service The 14 here-discussed U.S. TL carriers at YE '09 operated ~67,000 class 8 tractors in pursuit of truckload freight transportation revenues. 67,347 While these 14 major shipper-customers operate almost as many class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities: Pilgram's Pride operates 1,587 class 8 tractors 1,587 Via growing shipper Cemex USA operates 1,648 class 8 tractors 1,648 collaborations and well- directed private fleet Agrium operates 1800 class 8 tractors 1,800 routing programs, these substantial private Performance Foods operates 1,897 class 8 tractors 1,897 operations daily, forcefully compete Reynes Holdings operates 1,984 class 8 tractors 1,984 directly for the paid load assignments and Dean Foods operates 2,450 class 8 tractors 2,450 revenue miles upon which major and minor DrPepper Snapple operates 2,458 class 8 tractors truckers depend for 1 2,458 survival! Tyson Foods operates 2,500 class 8 tractors See, e.g.: 2,500 www.emptymiles.com McLane operates 3,100 class 8 tractors 3,100 US Foodservice operates 5,456 class 8 tractors 5,456 SPECIAL NOTE: Wal-Mart operates 6,891 class 8 tractors 6,891 This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000. Sysco operates 7,500 class 8 tractors 7,500 c Coca-Cola, et. al. operates 9,526 class 8 tractors 9,526 Pepsico, et. al., operates 9,882 class 8 tractors 9,882 The above-listed 14 major shipper-customers operate ~59,000 class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities. 58,679 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 14 Leading Private Shipper Fleets Pepsi (Pepsico + Bottling + Americas) Coca Cola (Enterprises + Bottling) Sysco Corp. Wal-Mart U.S. Foodservice McLane Co. Tyson Foods Dr Pepper Snapple Group Dean Foods Reyes Holdings Performance Food Group Agrium Cemex USA Pilgram's Pride 14 Leading For-hire TL Fleets © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.
    • Publicly-held North American TL Carriers - Market Values @ 3/26/2010 Market Capitalization @ 3/26/2009, US$s in millions Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~63% of FFEX's '09 gross revenues. FrozenFood, $71 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~91% of CVTI's '09 gross revenues. Covenant, $85 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of PTSI's '09 gross revenues. P.A.M., $126 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~96% of USAK's '09 gross revenues. USA Truck, $174 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~76% of UALC's '09 gross revenues. Universal, $273 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~95% of CGI's '09 gross revenues. Celadon, $304 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~77% of MRTN's '09 gross revenues. Marten, $425 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~36% of TFI's '09 gross revenues. TransForce, $934 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~100% of HTLD's '09 gross revenues. Heartland, $1,450 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of WERN's '09 gross revenues. Werner, $1,680 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~94% of KNX's '09 gross revenues. Knight, $1,690 Truckling operations herein detailed accounted for ~10% of R's '09 gross revenues. Con-way, $1,740 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~13% of CNW's '09 gross revenues. Ryder, $2,060 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~64% of LSTR's '09 gross revenues. Landstar, $2,080 Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~38% of JBHT's '09 gross revenues. J.B. Hunt, $4,540 $0.001 $0.010 $0.100 $1.000 $10.000 $100.000 $1,000.000 $10,000.000 SPECIAL NOTE: This a 3 decimal point logarithmic scale, from Zero to $10.0 billion). © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, and NYSE and NASDAQ records.
    • Biggest Winners of Late in the North American Trucking: Collections @ withdrawal, US$s in millions Shareholders of Star Transportation received ~$40.1 million cash from Covenant in September 2006. Shareholders of Smithways Recently, the big winners in Motor Xpress received ~$54 North American Trucking million cash from Western have been those shareholders who, Express in October 2007. via sale or special dividends, withdrew considerable funds Shareholders of U.S. Xpress from the truckload sector! received ~$191.7 million cash from Max Fuller and Pat Quinn in October 2007. Shareholders of Heartland received Heartland's special cash dividend of $196.2 million in May 2007. Shareholders of Werner received Werner's two special cash dividends: $150.3 million in Dec. 2008; $89.9 million in Dec. 2009. Shareholders of Contract Freighters received ~$752.3 million cash from CNW in August 2007. Shareholders of Swift Transportation received ~$1.5 billion cash from Jerry Moyes, et al., in May 2007. $0.0 $100.0 $200.0 $300.0 $400.0 $500.0 $600.0 $700.0 $800.0 $900.0 $1,000.0 $1,100.0 $1,200.0 $1,300.0 $1,400.0 $1,500.0 $1,600.0 © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and company reports.
    • Thoughts on Future Marriages of Leading Carriers: Carrier Truckload Revenues, US$s in thousands $2,400,000 Considerations: Swift #1 - USAK's young management could revitalize PSTI; would the Morouns swap their PTSI $2,200,000 stock for USAK's? Swift's future could #2 - Far better than most others, MRTN could surely apply its reefer strengths to improve FFEX. find it within Ceva, $2,000,000 #3 - Acquiring CVTI could bring real critical mass to CGI; are Russell and Parker compatible? along with either #4 - The pristine balance sheets, exemplary operating ratios, and barely-overlapping PACR or HUBG. geographies of KNX and HTLD are attractive merger ingredients. $1,800,000 #5 - A CNW acquisition of TFI could strengthen Con-way's Canadian LTL presence and much augment CNW Truckload's NAFTA-focused Truckload portfolio. #6 - JBHT could readily absorb R's dedicated unit and instantly push JBHT's DCS segment $1,600,000 annual operating income well above $100 million. And, #7 - UACL's large fleet of owner-operators, plus its body of independent agents, paint UACL as $1,400,000 a unique, large "tuck in" acquisition for LSTR, which could liquiditize the Morouns' stake in UACL, and possibly also add Moroun experience to LSTR's insurance operations. #7 Werner #6 And WERN $1,200,000 Landstar might fit well Note, too, KNX's recent quiet disclosure that during '09 it "negotiated an option ... to J.B.Hunt within Toll purchase first 49%, then [later] 51% of a [$450 million annual revenue truckload $1,000,000 Holdings, or carrier]." KNX form10-K for 12/31/2009, pg. 3. DB Schenker. $800,000 #4 #5 $600,000 #3 Trans #2 Knight Force #1 Covenant Con-way $400,000 Celadon Heartland Ryder Marten DCC USATruck Universal $200,000 P.A.M. Frozen Food $0 2009 P.A.M. USATrk. FrozenFood Marten Celadon Covenant Heartland Knight Con-way Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; TransForce Ryder - DCC J.B.Hunt Universal Landstar Werner Swift all others are YE Dec. 31. © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha's "musings."
    • Major Shippers Use Increasingly Sophisticated Tools to TL Carriers’ Pricing Disadvantage: AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
    • As Diesel Fuel Prices Fast Again Head North: Avg. On-road Diesel Price, US$s/gal. $3.000 $2.935/gallon $2.900 With the average on-road price of diesel fuel now ~$0.84/gal. higher than just one year ago, and with big trucks averaging ~6.0 MPG, $2.800 today it costs truckers ~$0.14 more per mile to transport a truckload cargo than it cost in March 2009! $2.700 $2.600 $2.500 The EIA's March 9, 2010, Short-term Energy Outlook $2.400 states that "On-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $2.46 per gallon in 2009, will average $2.96 per gal. in 2010 $2.300 and $3.14 in 2011." $2.200 $2.100 $2.092/gallon $2.000 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 © 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov.
    • Prompting Truckers to Wonder: What Comes Next? AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
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