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A.T. Kearney Payment Strategy Report
 

A.T. Kearney Payment Strategy Report

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A.T. Kearney Studie: Elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr wächst schneller ...

A.T. Kearney Studie: Elektronischer Zahlungsverkehr wächst schneller

Erträge verdoppeln sich, und neue Anbieter sind im Kommen

Düsseldorf, 24. Juni 2013 - Die Menschen in Europa werden in den kommenden Jahren laut einer aktuellen Studie der Managementberater von A.T. Kearney immer weniger mit Bargeld zahlen. Stattdessen wird der Anteil bargeldloser Zahlvorgänge drastisch zunehmen und die Anbieter der verschiedenen Zahlungsmethoden vor große Herausforderungen stellen
Der Untersuchung zufolge wird die Anzahl bargeldloser Zahlungsvorgänge in den 27 Staaten der Europäischen Union von derzeit über 90 Milliarden bis zum Jahr 2020 auf mehr als 175 Milliarden steigen, was einem Wachstum von 8 Prozent pro Jahr entspricht. Zum Vergleich: In den vergangenen Jahren war der Markt mit nur 5 Prozent jährlich gewachsen.
„Die dürren Jahre sind vorbei“, sagt Studienautor Andreas Pratz, Partner bei A.T. Kearney. „Der Haupttreiber des Wachstums kommt aus dem E-Commerce: Immer mehr Menschen kaufen im Internet ein, und das geht natürlich nur selten mit Bargeld. Außerdem rechnen wir mit großem Wachstum alternativer Bezahlmodelle. Dabei können in der Regel höhere Margen durchgesetzt werden als es im klassischen Zahlungsverkehr auch angesichts der regulatorischen Rahmenbedingungen zuletzt üblich war“. Bekannte alternative Bezahlmethoden sind PayPal, Giropay oder Sofortüberweisung.
Weltweit betrachtet wird derzeit rund ein Drittel aller 280 Milliarden bargeldlosen Zahlungen in Europa getätigt. Für den einzelnen Bürger heißt das: Von den im Durchschnitt jährlich etwa 800 Bezahlvorgängen pro Kopf, werden derzeit noch 600 bar bezahlt. Der Anteil von Barzahlungen wird der Studie zufolge bis 2020 auf 60 Prozent sinken und der Anteil der bargeldlosen Zahlungen steigen.
Davon profitieren werden Banken, Telekommunikationsanbieter, Händler sowie neue Anbieter, die im bargeldlosen Zahlungsverkehr in Europa aktiv sind. Ihre Erträge in diesem Segment werden sich A.T. Kearney zufolge von etwa 37 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2010 auf bis zu 65 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2020 fast verdoppeln. Zwar bleibt der Preisdruck auch angesichts der regulatorischen Rahmenbedingungen hoch. Innovative Bezahlmethoden im Internet oder via Smartphone („E- und M-Commerce“) bieten aber zugleich neue Ertragschancen. So erwarten die Autoren der Studie, dass bis 2020 bis zu ein Drittel der Erlöse auf Anbieter alternativer Methoden entfällt, obwohl sie zu diesem Zeitpunkt voraussichtlich nur ein Fünftel aller Zahlungen ausmachen werden. Beispiele sind elektronische Geldbörsen (Wallets) oder mobile Lösungen für Smartphones.
An der Vielzahl neuer Anbieter und Bezahllösungen im Markt wird deutlich: Im Wachstumsmarkt bargeldloser Zahlungsverkehr wird auch künftig mit harten Bandagen um Wachstum, Marktanteile und Kundenbeziehungen gekämpft.

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    A.T. Kearney Payment Strategy Report A.T. Kearney Payment Strategy Report Presentation Transcript

    • Andreas Pratz, Justin Krampe, Paul Laechelin Frankfurt, June 2013 Financial Institutions Circle Winning the growth challenge in payments European Payment Strategy Report
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 2 • Payment industry sentiment • Payment market outlook • Strategic challenges and choices Agenda
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 3 European Payment Strategy Report 2013: multiple sources of insight Sources of insight Source: A.T. Kearney >50 expert interviews • Banks, schemes, processors, MNOs, online challengers • Coverage of major European markets Payment market model • As-is based on ECB, various industry sources • Volume and revenue forecasts until 2020 Cards & payments benchmarking • Cost of domestic/cross-border payments and card issuing • Extensive European benchmarking database >100 payments projects across EMEA over last years • Cards, ACH, e-/m-commerce • Schemes, banks, processors, alternative providers, regulators • Strategy, market entry, innovation, cash displacement, risk, profitability, regulatory impact, … Payment industry sentiment
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 4 Note: Transactional growth for electronic transactions Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis Accelerated growth not expected to translate into larger revenue pool Expert view on transactional and revenue growth in Europe until 2020 Key observations • Growth through innovation, especially e-/m-commerce and cash displacement • On average stable revenue pool anticipated due to price pressure from regulators and increased competition How does a growth scenario look like? Is the revenue pool really stagnating? Transactions expected to grow… Revenue pool expected to… Slower 33% Faster 63% 4% Similar Decline 33% Remain stable 40% Return to grow 27% Payment industry sentiment
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 5 Note: Alternative payment methods include payments not initiated through a bank current account and conducted for instance between mobile phones, through m- or e-wallets or via remittance providers; CEE: Central and Eastern Europe; LVP: Low-value payments Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis Stable growth expected in “incumbent” areas – accelerating in alternative payments Question: What is your expected annual growth rate for transactions in Europe 2010-2015 and 2015-2020? (Ø response for growth rate) 2020f2015f2010 4% 8% 8% 16% 19% 4% Alternative methods Cards ACH Payment industry sentiment What dynamics for alternative methods can be expected? Key observations • Classical ACH set to continue moderate growth path, higher dynamics from ACH underlying alternative methods • Cards transactional growth fuelled by CEE and LVP • Alternatives expected to grow strongly, from small base
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 6Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis Convenience across the board seen as most important “battleground” Operational excellence (13%), scale (8%), security (8%), other (10%) Use in many places/channels (8%), other (17%) Payment industry sentiment What battleground do you see most relevant going forward? Which aspect of payment convenience will be most relevant? 15%Big data E-/m-com. solutions 21% Conven- ience 26% 48% Quick to use (e.g. 1/2/3 clicks) Easy to join (registration) 10% Easy to use (intuitive checkout) 17% Which battles to pick? What is needed on top of convenience to win in payments? Key observations • Convenience and e-/m-com. solution interrelated • Operational excellence also mentioned by alternative providers • Reach and scale important but not seen as the top priority
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 7 The mobile opportunity: Belief in NFC and in cooperation Payment industry sentiment Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis Why is NFC not taking off in most countries yet? Key barriers to overcome? Alternatives? Key observations • Dominance of NFC due to variety of pilots and trials • Some interviewees see benefits of pure internet solutions • Cooperation will be crucial to seize the opportunity Over internet (4%), One-time passcode via SMS (2%), Other/no opinion (19%) Alternative providers (8%), Merchants (8%), MNOs (4%) Which solution will be the most successful in mobile F2F environment? By whom will it predomi- nantly be provided? QR code scanning (on mobile) 8% 6% WiFi/ Bluetooth NFC/ RFID 60% 21% Other cooperation 25% 33% Joint bank- MNO offering Banks
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 8 E-Commerce: Wallet perceived as most convincing solution Question: Which solution will stand best chances to win in e-commerce? Debit card (6%), Invoice (6%), Other (13%) Payment industry sentiment Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis How should e-com. be prioritized vs. m-com.? How to realize the full potential of wallets? Key observations • Wallet seen as most powerful solution in e-com. before OBeP/bank buttons • Credit cards seen as superior mainly in typical credit card countries • Less potential seen for traditional methods incl. invoice OBeP 13% Credit card 13% Wallet 50%
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 9 15% Reach 13% Essentials Cost 48% Note: Large billers include telcos, utilities, insurers, government institutions etc. who initiate the majority of electronic transactions Source: Interviews, A.T. Kearney analysis Large billers: Sentiment that cost still rules decision on payments Question: What factor matters most when billers choose a payment method? Payment industry sentiment Checkout convenience (6%), Value-added services (4%), Other (15%) What can be done to grow the cake beyond payments? Why should we care about merchants? Key observations • Biller criteria: Focus is on the mechanics, not (yet) on consumer needs • Online merchants seek for minimal drop-out rates and seamless consumer journey • Only few interviewees see importance of merchants
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 10 The hopeful and the concerned Note: Question: Who is best prepared to win in payments over the coming years? Ranking according to answers Source: Interviews, soundbites selected by A.T. Kearney Expert view on who is best prepared to win in payments E-commerce specialists/wallets New bank solutions Incumbent bank solutions MNO solutions Remittance providers • “Shorter product development cycles, no regional constraints and less regulation” • “Scale, also in F2F, key to stay competitive” • “Enjoy trust in highly profitable niche segment” • “They will learn to innovate” • “Incumbents can play the reach card” • “Can leverage broad customer base” • “Cooperation essential in mobile payments” • “Different business model, many important topics other than payments” • “Potential for wallet or OBeP solutions” • “Banks can build on consumer trust when it comes to payments” 1 2 3 4 5 Payment industry sentiment
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 11 • Payment industry sentiment • Payment market outlook • Strategic challenges and choices Agenda
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 12 1.601.201.000.800.600.400.200.00 1.40 2.20 50 2.001.80 250 150 200 100 1,800 400 350 0 2.40 2.60 300 Lithuania Latvia Italy Ireland Hungary Greece UK Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Non-cash payments per capita Romania Card/ACH transactions Portugal Poland Netherlands Malta Luxembourg Germany France Finland Estonia Denmark Czech Republic Cyprus Bulgaria Belgium Austria Status Europe: Huge room to evolve payment system Note: Bubble size refers to number of non-cash transactions; ACH transactions used as a synonym for credit transfer, direct debit and cheque transactions Source: European Central Bank, A.T. Kearney ACH vs. card markets (2011) Card marketsACH markets Payment market outlook
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 13 Payments a growth spot in a slow environment Note: Telecommunication CAGR refers to Western Europe Source: A.T. Kearney European Payment Market Model, building on actuals from ECB, RBR and other sources; IDC Non-cash payments in Europe (bn transactions, CAGR in %, EU-27 2005 – 2020f) Cash share in retail sector 82% 78% 71% 177 121 87 70 2005 8% 7% 5% 2020f2015f2010 60% Payment market outlook eCommerce (2010-2015) 10% Retail 3% Telecommunication -1%
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 14 Change of instruments – change of providers? Electronic payments evolution (EU-27, share of transactions) Credit transfers/ direct debits Debit/credit cards Cheques Alternative payment methods 2020f 38-42% <2% 12-20% 2015f 45-50% 43-47% <3% 4-6% 2010 53% 40% 6% 1% 2005 55% 34% 10% 1% 40-44% Notes: Without ATM transactions; Alternative payment methods include payments not initiated through a bank current account and conducted for instance between mobile phones, through m- or e-wallets or via remittance providers Source: A.T. Kearney European Payment Market Model, building on actuals from ECB, RBR and other sources Payment market outlook
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 15 Landslide shift in revenue pool 6% 7% 2% Credit transfers/ direct debits Debit/credit cards Alternative payment methods 2020f ~65 20-24 18-26 18-26 2015f ~50 18-22 16-22 10-16 2010 ~37 16 15 6 2005 ~33 14 13 6 Notes: Alternative payment methods include payments not initiated through a bank current account and conducted for instance between mobile phones, through m- or e-wallets or via remittance providers; debit/credit cards includes transactional issuing and acquiring revenues; credit transfers/direct debits include paper and electronic transactions, high-value and international transactions, and exception handling Source: A.T. Kearney European Payment Market Model, building on actuals from ECB, RBR and other sources European payment revenue pools (€ bn, CAGR in %, EU-27 2005 – 2020f) Payment market outlook
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 16 • Payment industry sentiment • Payment market outlook • Strategic challenges and choices Agenda
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 17 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 18 90% current accounts/debit cards Example Germany ~40% credit cards ~45% onl. banking ~100% mobile phones Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Payment battlegrounds Reaching many, quickly Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 19 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Network before plain scale Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 20 Cash displace- ment ATM POS Use Pay- ment De- posit TrustPolicy Pick your battles Note: Wheel of cash starts at ATM use and includes measures to discourage cash circulation, broaden card acceptance, encourage POS use, increase electronic payments, and encourage cash deposits. This is supplemented by measures fostering (perceived) security and convenience, and general policy measures (e.g. reduce red tape, foster financial inclusion, promote e-invoices) Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Motivate and engage – market level Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 21 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Position for “e” to win in “m” Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 22 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Expected value of loss Base level Simplified Enhanced - + Low High High Low Convenience Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Security: Differentiated and convenient Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 23 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Convenience Use cases Convenience: Easy to join, use everywhere Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 24 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Rich data before big data Payment battlegrounds € $ £ ABCD Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 25 Pick your battles Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Transit Food Apparel Culture White Brown Car Digital … … …. Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Key to address sub- segments and capture on-top revenues Payment battlegrounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 26 Select the winning grounds! Source: A.T. Kearney analysis Reach/ acceptance Data Security Cash dis- placement Scale E-/m- commerce Con- venience Use cases Winning grounds Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 27 Seize the opportunity! Source: A.T. Kearney The burning platform Processors • Make the most out of SEPA migration: replatforming, routing optimization • Transaction processing beyond payments • From thin to rich data Banks • Decide necessary range of solutions (F2F/e/m) • Define partnering to gain uptake • Leverage core assets Online challengers • Strive for convenience • Address multi-channel needs/transition • Define partnering for scale/relevance MNOs • Embed with m- commerce • Get aligned with banks • Define partnering in NFC/F2F to solve infrastructure All • Focus market positioning • Pick verticals (use cases) • Put upgraded authentication/risk management approach in place • Put yourself in user shoes (merchants/billers, consumers, corporates) Strategic challenges and choices
    • A.T. Kearney 10/05.2013/44887d/5aY4trQkkR00nknHnx 28 Americas Atlanta Calgary Chicago Dallas Detroit Houston Mexico City New York San Francisco São Paulo Toronto Washington, D.C. Asia Pacific Bangkok Beijing Hong Kong Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Melbourne Mumbai New Delhi Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Tokyo Europe Amsterdam Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Copenhagen Düsseldorf Frankfurt Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon Ljubljana London Madrid Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome Stockholm Stuttgart Vienna Warsaw Zurich Middle East and Africa Abu Dhabi Dubai Johannesburg Manama Riyadh A.T. Kearney is a global team of forward-thinking, collaborative partners that delivers immediate, meaningful results and long-term transformative advantage to clients. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors on CEO-agenda issues to the world’s leading organizations across all major industries and sectors. A.T. Kearney’s offices are located in major business centers in 39 countries.