09 02-12 nyk results-q1-2

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09 02-12 nyk results-q1-2

  1. 1. Financial Results for FY13/3 1ST Quarter and Forecast for FY13/3 July 2012 0
  2. 2. Contents1) Results for FY13/3 1st Quarter p.2-42) Revised Forecast for FY13/3 p.5-73) Overview of Each Industrial Segment p.8-134) Medium-Term Management Plan p.14-18 1
  3. 3. Summary of FY13/3 1st Quarter Results FY12/3 FY13/3 Year- Full- on-year (billion yen) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q year Revenues 447.7 463.4 439.8 456.8 1,807.8 477.5 29.8 Operating Income -10.4 0.7 -6.4 -8.0 -24.1 6.8 17.2 Recurring Profit -10.1 -4.9 -9.7 -8.3 -33.2 4.8 14.9 Net Income -7.1 -4.9 -5.2 -55.5 -72.8 -1.3 5.8 Exchange Rate ¥82.04 ¥78.44 ¥76.85 ¥78.27 ¥78.90 ¥80.77 ¥-1.27 Bunker Oil Price $625.20 $658.82 $680.72 $700.14 $666.22 $716.78 $91.58- Revenues and recurring profit increased comparing to FY12/3 1Q due to container freight rates’ recovery and car transport volume pickup.- Sensitivity against recurring profit (Full-year) Exchange rate : ¥1.3 billion decrease per ¥1/$ appreciation Bunker oil price : ¥140 million decrease per $1/MT increase 2
  4. 4. Comparison of Financial Results between FY12/3 1Q and FY13/3 1Q by Industrial Segments Industrial F Y12/3 F Y13/3 Y ea r-on- Segm en ts y ea r (billion yen) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full-year 1Q 108.5 112.1 99.4 98.5 418.7 115.4 6.8 L in er -8.6 -8.6 -13.8 -13.6 -44.7 -3.3 5.2 34.5 36.6 34.6 34.2 140.0 34.6 0.1 T erm inal 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.6 7.7 2.0 0.3 Global 22.6 20.6 19.3 20.0 82.6 20.3 -2.2 Air C argo L ogis tics 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 3.3 -0.7 -2.6 94.3 91.5 89.6 89.6 365.1 87.8 -6.4 L ogistics 0.9 3.2 3.5 1.4 9.2 1.2 0.2 260.0 260.9 243.0 242.5 1,006.6 258.3 -1.7 T otal -3.9 -2.4 -7.7 -10.2 -24.3 -0.7 3.1 B ulk 173.1 184.6 181.9 191.1 730.8 201.1 28.0 B ulk Shipping S hipping -5.4 -3.3 -1.3 2.3 -7.7 5.6 11.0 7.1 10.1 7.2 7.9 32.4 8.6 1.5 Cruis es -2.3 0.2 -1.6 -1.9 -5.8 -1.2 1.1 O thers Real E state 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 10.8 2.5 -0.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 45.8 44.3 43.8 50.5 184.5 43.8 -2.0 O ther 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.3 Elim ination/ -41.0 -39.3 -38.8 -38.2 -157.5 -36.8 4.1 Unallocation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 447.7 463.4 439.8 456.8 1,807.8 477.5 29.8 Consolidated -10.1 -4.9 -9.7 -8.3 -33.2 4.8 14.9 * (Upper)Revenues (Lower)Recurring Profit * Revenues of Tanker & LNG Carriers in Bulk Shipping Segment: ¥34.5billion(FY12/3 1Q) and ¥32.5billion(FY13/3 1Q)- Liner: Loss decreased by ¥5.2 billion due to freight rates’ recovery.- Bulk Shipping: Marked profit in 2 quarters in a row by prolonged depreciation period of VLCCs and LNGCarriers, disposal of unprofitable vessels and volume recovery in car transport business. 3
  5. 5. Analysis of Change in Recurring Profit between FY12/3 1Q and FY13/3 1Q (billion yen)Yen Appreciation -0.4 ¥80.77/$, Appreciated by ¥1.27Higher Bunker Oil Price -3.2 $716.78/MT, Increased by $91.58Market Effects etc 10.4Cost Reduction 9.1 Liner 6.3New Consolidation 0.2Others -1.2 Total 14.9 4
  6. 6. Revised Forecast for FY13/3 FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) Change from Year-on- 1H 2H Full- 1H Full- previous 2H year forecast 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q year 1Q 2Q year (billion yen) (Result) (Full year) 911.1 896.6 1,807.8 980.0 980.0 1,960.0 152.1 -40.0 Revenues 447.7 463.4 439.8 456.8 477.5 502.4 8% -2% -9.6 -14.4 -24.1 22.0 28.0 50.0 74.1 0.0Operating Income -10.4 0.7 -6.4 -8.0 6.8 15.1 -15.1 -18.1 -33.2 17.0 23.0 40.0 73.2 0.0Recurring Profit -10.1 -4.9 -9.7 -8.3 4.8 12.1 -12.0 -60.7 -72.8 7.5 12.5 20.0 92.8 -3.0 Net Income -7.1 -4.9 -5.2 -55.5 -1.3 8.8 -13% Exchange Rate ¥82.04 ¥78.44 ¥76.85 ¥78.27 ¥78.90 ¥80.77 ¥80.00 ¥80.00 ¥80.19 ¥1.29 Bunker Oil Price $625.20 $658.82 $680.72 $700.14 $666.22 $716.78 $650.00 $650.00 $666.70 $0.47- Sensitivity against recurring profit (Full-year) Exchange rate :¥80.19/$ ¥1.3 billion decrease per ¥1/$ appreciation Bunker oil price :$666.70/MT ¥140 million decrease per $1/MT increase- Cash dividend (Forecast): Annual dividend of ¥4/share (¥2/share each for interim and year-end) 5
  7. 7. Comparison between FY12/3 Results and FY13/3 Revised Forecast by Industrial Segments Industrial FY12/3(Result) FY13/3( Forecast) Year- Segment on- Full- Full- 1H 2H 1Q 1H 2H (billion yen) 1Q 2Q year (Result) 2Q year year 108.5 112.1 220.7 198.0 418.7 0 . 0 115.4 119.6 235.0 225.0 460.0 41.2 Liner -8.6 -8.6 -17.3 -27.4 -44.7 -3.3 1.9 -1.5 3.0 1.5 46.2 Terminal 34.5 36.6 71.1 68.9 140.0 34.6 35.4 70.0 67.0 137.0 -3.0 1.7 2.2 3.9 3.7 7.7 2.0 1.6 3.7 3.3 7.0 -0.7 Global 22.6 20.6 43.2 39.3 82.6 20.3 20.2 40.5 42.0 82.5 -0.1 Air CargoLogistics 1.9 0.7 2.7 0.6 3.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 0.7 -0.7 -4.0 94.3 91.5 185.9 179.2 365.1 87.8 93.1 181.0 194.0 375.0 9.8 Logistics 0.9 3.2 4.2 5.0 9.2 1.2 2.3 3.5 4.5 8.0 -1.2 Total 260.0 260.9 521.0 485.5 1,006.6 258.3 268.3 526.5 528.0 1,054.5 47.8 -3.9 -2.4 -6.3 -18.0 -24.3 -0.7 5.2 4.4 11.4 15.8 40.1 Bulk 173.1 184.6 357.7 373.0 730.8 201.1 203.9 405.0 395.0 800.0 69.1 Bulk ShippingShipping -5.4 -3.3 -8.8 1.0 -7.7 5.6 5.9 11.5 11.5 23.0 30.7 7.1 10.1 17.2 15.1 32.4 8.6 9.2 17.8 17.2 35.0 2.5 Cruises -2.3 0.2 -2.1 -3.6 -5.8 -1.2 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 -2.8 3.0 Others Real Estate 2.6 2.6 5.3 5.5 10.8 2.5 2.6 5.1 5.2 10.3 -0.5 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 3.8 -0.1 Other 45.8 44.3 90.1 94.4 184.5 43.8 48.2 92.0 93.0 185.0 0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.6 Elimination/ -41.0 -39.3 -80.4 -77.1 -157.5 -36.8 -29.6 -66.5 -58.5 -125.0 32.5 Unallocation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 447.7 463.4 911.1 896.6 1,807.8 477.5 502.4 980.0 980.0 1,960.0 152.1 Consolidated -10.1 -4.9 -15.1 -18.1 -33.2 4.8 12.1 17.0 23.0 40.0 73.2 * (Upper) Revenues (Lower) Recurring Profit * Revenues of Tanker & LNG Carriers in Bulk Shipping Segment: ¥131.0billion(FY12/3 Result) and ¥126.0billion(FY13/3 Forecast) 6
  8. 8. Comparison between FY13/3 Previous Forecast and Revised Forecast by Industrial Segments Industrial Previous Forecast Revised Forecast Change Segment Full- Full- Full- (billion yen) 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H year year year 230.0 230.0 460.0 0 . 0 235.0 225.0 460.0 5.0 -5.0 0.0 Liner -4.0 1.0 -3.0 -1.5 3.0 1.5 2.5 2.0 4.5 Terminal 71.0 69.0 140.0 70.0 67.0 137.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 3.7 3.3 7.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 Global 43.5 42.5 86.0 40.5 42.0 82.5 -3.0 -0.5 -3.5 Air Cargo Logistics 0.4 0.6 1.0 -1.3 0.7 -0.7 -1.7 0.1 -1.7 Logistics 194.0 203.0 397.0 181.0 194.0 375.0 -13.0 -9.0 -22.0 5.4 5.6 11.0 3.5 4.5 8.0 -1.9 -1.1 -3.0 Total 538.5 544.5 1,083.0 526.5 528.0 1,054.5 -12.0 -16.5 -28.5 5.8 10.2 16.0 4.4 11.4 15.8 -1.4 1.2 -0.2 Bulk 395.0 405.0 800.0 405.0 395.0 800.0 10.0 -10.0 0.0 Bulk Shipping Shipping 8.5 11.5 20.0 11.5 11.5 23.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 20.7 19.3 40.0 17.8 17.2 35.0 -2.9 -2.1 -5.0 Cruises 0.9 -0.4 0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -2.8 -2.1 -1.2 -3.3 5.3 5.2 10.5 5.1 5.2 10.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 Others Real Estate 2.0 1.7 3.7 2.0 1.8 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 Other 95.0 96.0 191.0 92.0 93.0 185.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 Elimination/ -59.5 -65.0 -124.5 -66.5 -58.5 -125.0 -7.0 6.5 -0.5 Unallocation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Consolidated 995.0 1,005.0 2,000.0 980.0 980.0 1,960.0 -15.0 -25.0 -40.0 17.0 23.0 40.0 17.0 23.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * (Upper) Revenues (Lower) Recurring Profit- Liner: Revised upward due to freight rates’ recovery and major service restructuring.- Cruise: Revised downward by Crystal Cruises’ slower booking than initially expected. Cruises’ 7
  9. 9. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 1)1. Liner – Container:Container Lifting, Slot(1,000TEU) Change FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) from Full- 1Q Full- previous 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 2H year (Result) year forecastAsia→ Lifting 152 182 161 155 650 166 177 324 668 -3North America Slot 204 217 198 184 802 195 206 388 788 -4 Utilizaion 75% 84% 81% 84% 81% 85% 86% 84% 85% 0%Asia→Europe Lifting 130 139 118 112 500 133 137 250 520 3 Slot 154 159 145 122 580 142 150 277 569 14 Utilizaion 84% 88% 81% 92% 86% 94% 91% 90% 91% -2%Trend of Container Freight Rate(Index, FY09/3 1Q=100) FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) Previous Full- 1Q Full- forecast 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 2H year (Result) yearAsia→North America 103 101 97 99 100 104 111 110 109 115Asia→Europe 78 74 71 66 73 86 89 84 86 82- Lifting: Expect almost the same volume as previous forecast on both Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes.- Freight Rates: Keep effort in further recovering freight rates and maintaining the level on theTranspacific trade. 8
  10. 10. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 2) 2. Air Cargo Transportation (NCA) FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) Change from 1H 2H Full- 1H Full- 2H previous 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q year 1Q 2Q year forecast (Result) billion 43.2 39.4 40.5Revenues 82.6 42.0 82.5 -3.5 yen 22.6 20.6 19.3 20.0 20.3 20.2Recurring billion 2.7 0.6 -1.3 3.3 0.7 -0.7 -1.7 Profit yen 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.7 -0.6 Capable 187 187 203 1,000 ton 375 203 406 34 Weight 95 93 91 96 100 103 Volume Mil.ton 1,161 1,136 1,246 2,297 1,268 2,514 267 (RTK) kilo 591 570 556 580 606 640Capacity Mil.ton 1,641 1,618 1,782 kilo 3,259 1,763 3,545 204 (ATK) 810 831 796 822 857 925 FY08 97 88 86 YIELD 92 88 87 -1 1Q=100 100 93 88 88 88 83 US$ $128 $128 $119 MOPS per bbl $128 $115 $117 -$13 $131 $126 $125 $132 $122 $115 - The yield decline caused recurring loss of FY13/3 1Q despite the sales effort on increase in handling cargo volume from/to Asia. - Revised FY13/3 full-year forecast downward from the previous. 9
  11. 11. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 2) 2. Air Cargo Transportation (NCA)Composition Ratio Trade-wise Load Factor Trend FY12/3 FY13/3 FY12/3(Result) 13/3(Forecast) (Result) (Forecast) Full- 1Q Full- RTK ATK RTK ATK 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 2H year (Result) yearNorth America 61% 58% 63% 58% 76% 71% 72% 74% 73% 75% 75% 78% 76%Europe 16% 15% 17% 15% 78% 77% 78% 76% 77% 78% 82% 84% 82%Asia 23% 27% 21% 27% 62% 59% 61% 62% 61% 59% 50% 53% 54%All Trade 100% 100% 100% 100% 73% 69% 70% 71% 70% 71% 69% 72% 71% 10
  12. 12. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 3)3. Logistics Segment FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) Change from (billion yen) 1H 2H Full- 1H Full- previous 1Q 2H 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q year 2Q year forecast (Result) 185.9 179.2 181.0 Revenues 365.1 194.0 375.0 -22.0 94.3 91.5 89.6 89.6 87.8 93.1 Recurring 4.2 5.0 3.5 9.2 4.5 8.0 -3.0 Profit 0.9 3.2 3.5 1.4 1.2 2.3- Expand intra-region logistics and increase handling volume by targeting China, India,Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand) and emerging markets.- Aim to increase profit by providing differentiated service of integrating Ocean Forwardingbusiness in Asia and Logistics business in Europe and the U.S. 11
  13. 13. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 4) 4. Bulk Shipping – 1) Market trend and forecast: FY12/3 (Result) FY13/3 (Forecast) Previous Full- 1Q Full- forecast 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 2H year (Result) year B DI 1,376 1,531 1,925 867 1,425 1,020 1,049 1,418 1,226 1,515 Cape (4TC) 8,606 17,058 28,728 6,997 15,347 5,986 8,500 16,500 11,872 17,000DryBulk Panamax (Pac) 12,379 10,410 12,410 7,571 10,693 8,150 8,000 9,500 8,788 10,375Carrier Handymax (Pac) 12,730 11,285 9,397 7,672 10,271 8,415 7,000 10,000 8,854 11,000 Handy (Pac) 11,148 9,512 7,709 6,055 8,606 9,016 7,500 9,000 8,629 9,000Tanker VLCC 17,160 8,151 18,087 31,420 18,705 33,665 8,000 22,500 21,666 22,500 * Market per vessel (spot charterage) 4TC = average of 4 routes, Pac = Pacific-round, Currency Unit = US$ / day - Expect weaker Dry Bulk Carrier and Tanker market level comparing to the previous forecast particularly Capesize bulker. 12
  14. 14. Overview of Each Industrial Segment 5)4.Bulk Shipping –2) Car Carrier:Car Transportation Result/Forecast(1,000Cars) FY12/3(Result) FY13/3(Forecast) Change from Full- 1Q Full- previous 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 2H forecast year (Result) yearAll Trade 600 770 770 790 2,920 860 850 1,660 3,360 50 Change -20% 2% -5% -1% -6% 43% 10% 7% 15% 1% - Increased in car transport volume in FY13/3 due to recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Thai floods. 13
  15. 15. More Than Shipping 2013– Grow with Asia, Expand across the Globe – Review and Revisionat the end of First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2012 31 July, 2012 14 14
  16. 16. Fleet in Operation Review operating fleet size of vessel types exposed to market volatility FY2013 FY2013 FY2016 FY2016 Consolidated FY2011 Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Actual (Original) (Revised) (Original) (Revised) Vessels in Vessels in Vessels in Vessels in Vessels in Vessel Types (Dry Bulk by Vessel Size) Operation Operation Operation Operation OperationContainerships 100 110 95 110 90(# of vessels owned and in long-term charters) (84) (80) (79) (63) (63)Car Carriers 121 120 120 130 130Capesize Vessels 112 120 120 110 110Post-Panamax/Panamax Vessels 93 100 85 110 90Handysize (incl. Boxshape) Vessels 149 180 150 200 150Wood-chip Carriers 56 60 55 60 55Tankers 85 105 80 105 75LNG Carriers (incl. vessels under joint ownership) 66 65 65 80 80Others 94 95 85 100 85 Total 876 955+ 855 1,005+ 865 Non-Consolidated :Major vessels held under equity-method affiliates Shuttle Tankers(KNOT*) 24 25 27 30 30 ※KNOT: Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers 15
  17. 17. Investment Plan Investment Plan (FY2011 - 2016) (JPY, billions) Original Revised Current Additional Current Additional Investment Invest- Total Investment Invest- Total Plan ments Plan mentsShipping Containerships 29 0 29 30 0 30 Car Carriers 80 110 190 50 55 105 Dry Large Bulk Carriers 320 0 320 330 0 330 Small/Medium-sized Bulk Carriers 370 100 470 390 20 410 Liquid Tankers 50 20 70 60 0 60 LNG, Offshore Business 60 200 260 90 70 160 Other Shipping 160 0 160 135 0 135Non- Logistics 1 30 31 5 25 30 Other Non-ShippingShipping Investments 230 40 270 260 20 280Total 1,300 500+ 1,800+ 1,350 190 1,540 Major scheduled investments by an equity-method affiliate not included above: Shuttle Tanker (KNOT) investment = 50 billion 16
  18. 18. Financial Targets: Breakdown by Business Segment Expand stable freight rate business Recurring Profit (by Segment)(JPY, billions) Revision as of 27 April, 2012 Original 200 2,000 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2016 FY2013 FY2016 114.1 ▲33.2 40.0 75.0 150.0 130.0 170.0 150 1,500 40.0 30.0 30.0 100 1,000 39.6 130.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 50 500 75.0 74.5 51.2 00 ▲35.0 ▲5.0 ▲84.4 50 -500 Business with stable freight rates Other Businesses -1,000 100 17
  19. 19. Financial Targets: Earnings and Financial Targets (JPY, billions) Original Revised Original Revised FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2016 FY2016 Estimate Estimate Estimate Actual Estimate Estimate Target TargetRevenues 2,000.0 2,100.0 2,300.0 1,807.8 1,960.0 2,130.0 2,700.0 2,620.0Operating Income 90.0 110.0 140.0 ▲ 24.1 50.0 85.0 180.0 160.0Recurring Profit 80.0 100.0 130.0 ▲ 33.2 40.0 75.0 170.0 150.0Net Income 50.0 75.0 95.0 ▲ 72.8 20.0 65.0 125.0 115.0Depreciation and Amortization 110.0 120.0 130.0 100.8 95.0 105.0Operating Cash Flow 130.0 180.0 200.0 29.8 100.0 140.0Investing Cash Flow ▲ 200.0 ▲ 230.0 ▲ 200.0 ▲ 139.4 ▲ 200.0 ▲ 190.0Interest-bearing Debt 970.0 1,030.0 1,030.0 1,067.1 1,140.0 1,180.0Shareholders Equity 700.0 760.0 830.0 579.3 570.0 620.0D/E Ratio 1.39 1.36 1.24 1.84 2.00 1.90Shareholders Equity Ratio 32% 32% 32% 27% 25% 26%ROE 7% 10% 12% - 4% 10%Payout Ratio Target: 25% consolidated payout ratioForeign Exchange Rate (/$) 85 85 85 79 80 80 85 80Bunker Oil Price (/MT) $650 $650 $650 $666 $667 $730 $650 $730 18

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