Scenario Planning by Anders Sorman-Nilsson of Thinque
Scenario Planning - 2020 Vision Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies. As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for foreseeable and unpredictable futures. www.thinquetank.com
What are the certainties for the future?What are the uncertainties for the future?How confident are we? Certainties v Uncertainties
Define the QuestionWhat is the of in the next years?
List the Driving ForcesWhat are the key uncertainties and forces that will shape thefuture in predictable and unpredictable ways? Look at variables,trends and events that impact it.Think about your question from STEEP perspectives:Socio-CulturalTechnologicalEnvironmentalEconomicPolitical
List the Driving Forces12 List Driving Forces345 eg.6 • pace of change7 • new entrants8 • state of the economy • digitisation9 • industry consolidation10
List the Driving Forces Highest 1 2 List Driving Forces 3Importance 4 5 6 7 Prioritise 8 the Top 2 9 Lowest 10
Top 2Uncertainty HighDimensions Narrow Wide Low
Our ScenarioQuestions:• What events led to this scenario?• Looking back from the future, how did this scenario come to be?• Are you stories relevant, surprising, divergent, yet plausible?• What could happen over the next 5 years?
Who is Anders?Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helpsexecutives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies.As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives andleaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for both foreseeable and unpredictablefutures. Since founding Thinque in 2005, he has worked with and spoken to clients like Xerox,Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Eli Lilly, SAP, IBM, ABN Amro Bank, Commonwealth Bank,McCann Erickson and BAE Systems, across diverse cultural and geographic contexts. Anders is an active member of TEDGlobal (Oxford 2009 / Edinburgh 2011), has keynoted atTEDx, guest lectured at University of Technology Sydney Business School, and Anders is on theprestigious 2013 Million Dollar Roundtable roster. He is a member of the University of SydneyGlobal Executive MBA cohort, and has completed executive education at Stanford University andthe Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.
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