Average Is Not Normal

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  • I have made a slight change to the presentation. If you viewed it before you will notice that we tightened the range from 8-12 to 9-11. Now there are only 2 years out of 80 that were even close to 'average'. Download this version and replace the previous one.
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Average Is Not Normal

  1. 1. Average is not normal
  2. 2. THE LAST 80 YEARS THE STOCK MARKET
  3. 3. AVERAGED 10 percent
  4. 4. Average is not normal
  5. 5. during those 80 years
  6. 6. ANNUAL RETURNS LOOKED LIKE THIS
  7. 7. 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
  8. 8. HOW MANY OF THOSE RETURNS
  9. 9. WERE BETWEEN
  10. 10. 9 AND 11 percent
  11. 11. OR EVEN CLOSE TO: average
  12. 12. 34 38 -13 -28 -43 -8 56 5 44 33 34 28 3 -7 -10 16 29 21 38 -6 4 2 20 30 20 14 1 50 25 8 -10 45 13 1 27 -10 21 16 14 -9 28 14 -10 1 16 17 -18 -28 38 27 -3 8 24 33 -3 21 23 5 32 17 2 18 29 -6 35 10 11 0 37 21 31 24 24 -11 -11 -21 32 12 6 15
  13. 13. 2 OUT OF 80
  14. 14. Average is not normal
  15. 15. SO YOU MAY BE PLANNING ON
  16. 16. IN REALITY YOU WILL EXPERIENCE
  17. 17. DOES IT MATTER ?
  18. 18. what if you started
  19. 19. HERE
  20. 20. VS.
  21. 21. HERE
  22. 22. THEN
  23. 23. it would have mattered to YOU
  24. 24. Average is not normal
  25. 25. join the conversation: WWW. BEHAVIORGAP.COM linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/thinkingcarl twitter: http://twitter.com/behaviorgap
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