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Global Geothermal Development, CanGEA Conference, March 2013

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A presentation on global geothermal development at a conference by the Canadian Geothermal Energy Assocation, in March 2013 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. …

A presentation on global geothermal development at a conference by the Canadian Geothermal Energy Assocation, in March 2013 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

The presentation looks into the current status of development and an outlook.

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. Global geothermal development Current status of development and outlook Alexander Richter ThinkGeoEnergy.com @thinkgeoenergy 22 March 2013, CanGEA Conference, Calgary, Alberta
  • 2. Overview on Status and Development 49 MW Hudson Ranch I, Salton Sea, California, U.S. – start of operation 2012
  • 3. Current installed capacity Asia 4,568 North America 4,344 Europe 1,642 Aus., NZ & Pacific 640 Central America 507 Africa 180 Middle East 82 Caribbean 15 South America 1 0 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
  • 4. Current Installed capacity & projects Asia 4,568 North America 4,344 Europe 1,642 1,271 Africa 6,447 180 2,249 Aus., NZ & Pacific 640 Central America 507 South America 7,868 666 298 1 729 Caribbean 15 320 Installed Middle East 82 168 Projects 0 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
  • 5. Installed, capacity & potential Asia 70,884 North America 32,209 South America 30,780 Caribbean 15,065 Africa 11,571 Central America 12,405 Installed Aus., NZ & Pacific 7,694 Europe 3,406 Additional Potential 2,551 Middle East 0 Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research Projects 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000
  • 6. Global Geothermal Energy Power Generation - Potential 32,200 Installed power generation capacity, projects/ inferred resources 3,400 & resource estimates 1,642 1,271 4,344 6,447 Installed Installed Resources 70,884 Europe Resources North America 2,550 82 27,400 168 Installed Resources Middle East 522 Installed Resources 4,568 618 7,868 Installed Asia Cent. America & Caribbean 11,600 30,800 180 1 Installed High temperature regions Resources 730 Resources South America 2,249 Installed 7,700 Resources Africa 640 666 Installed Resources Aus., NZ & Pacific Current installed capacity Projects & inferred resources Resource estimates Sources: Islandsbanki, ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, Chevron Note: Installed Capacity of 2010 (2012), resource estimates combined (1999-2012) – IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity.
  • 7. Development pipeline United States 3,093 Indonesia 1,197 Philippines New Zealand 3,500 1,904 Mexico 2,500 958 1,140 628 Italy 1,240 843 Iceland 920 575 Japan 536 Kenya 5,400 800 535 530 167 El Salvador 204 Costa Rica 166 Nicaragua 88 290 200 240 Turkey 82 Russia 82 190 Guatemala 200 52 120 Chile 0 150 Papua New Guinea 56 75 Portugal 29 60 China 24 60 Ethiopia France Australia 7 45 16 35 1 40 Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, GEA, IGA Bertani (2010) 2010 2015e
  • 8. Development stages Mauerstetten, Germany – dry well/ potential EGS project
  • 9. Development stages Year 1 Start-up • • • Year 2 • • Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 … Exploration PreFeasibility Legal Work Concession Permitting • Year 3 Feasibility Design & Construction Geophysical surveys Geochemical and geological data collection & analysis Temperature gradient drilling • • Operation Focused Exploration on most favorable resource area Sufficient Exploration data collected & analyzed • • • • • Drilling of first successful, full-sized production well. Confirmation Wells, Reserve Estimates & Preliminary Design Drilling & testing of remaining production and injection wells Civil works required Final design & testing
  • 10. Global development by stages 8,000 7,000 7,222 6,508 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,862 2,423 2,000 1,000 891 110 0 Prospect Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research Exploration Pre-Feasibility Feasibility Construction Other*
  • 11. Regional development by stages 8,000 1,067 7,000 Construction 6,000 5,000 435 Feasibility 685 1,209 Pre-Feasibility Exploration 4,000 3,409 Prospect 1,763 3,000 316 113 145 2,000 1,000 0 170 100 190 269 143 351 594 176 Middle East Central America Caribbean NZ & Pacific AmericaEurope Aus., South 1,075 2,903 2,533 Africa North America Asia
  • 12. Current financial situation Solok, West Java, Indonesia
  • 13. Financing geothermal projects Start-up Exploration/ Pre-Feasibility Feasibility/ Resource Verification Detailed Design & Construction Mezz./ Bridge Debt, Const. Financing Venture Capital Project & Vendor Financing Drilling Equity Development Equity Start of Operation Project Equity Tax Equity • Developers • Private Equity • Private Equity • Financial Players • IPPs (Development Pipeline) • Public Markets • • • Resource Speculators • Financial Partners Strategic Partners Large IPPs with ability to monetize PTCs • Venture Capitalists Source: Islandsbanki
  • 14. Financing of power plants Annual new-build debt investment as proportion of total for past decade, 2002–2012 $4.8bn TOTAL % Development bank 50% % % % % 46% 40% 30% Commercial lender 22% 20% State-owned entity 10% 0% 2002 20% Pension fund 8% Government 4% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  • 15. Opportunities for Canadians 12.5 MW San Emidio plant, Nevada, U.S.
  • 16. Canadian Geothermal Supply Chain Canadian Geothermal Power & Direct Use of Heat Technology Roadmap and Deployment Framework
  • 17. Canadian geothermal sector Energy audit & law firms GeoScience Technical consulting Drilling Industry news Business consulting Construction Financing Industry associations (CanGEA, IGA, G RC, GEA …) Local consumers (direct) District heating Industrial heating applications Core Industry Function R&D, education, knowl edge Geothermal resource exploration & development Geothermal research Recreation, heal th & tourism Geothermal energy production Transmission & distribution Industry Training & education Drilling rigs & related Turbines & generators Retail electricity Other equipment Local consumers (indirect) Equipment Suppliers Related industries Mining Government (Agencies, department, offices) Oil & Gas Other Energy Production Legislation Permitting & licensing Market Regulation Economic Development
  • 18. Exploration PreFeasibility Feasibility Design & Construction Operation Research & development Early-stage exploration Drilling & related services Drilling & related services EPC Manufacturers & equipment suppliers O&M services Transmission Business & related services Policy & development Off-takers
  • 19. Canadian Case Study: Polaris/ Nicaragua 72 MW San Jacinto-Tizate plant, Nicaragua
  • 20. 2003 Incorporation and listing on TSX (GEO) 2007 Installation of initial 10 MW at San Jacinto-Tizate/ Nicaragua 2009 Start of Phase I construction Merger of Polaris, Western GeoPower and Ram Power (RPG) 20092011 Debt financing raised US$309.5m ($149.5 + $160m) 2011 Commercial operation of 36 MW Phase I expansion 2013 Commercial operation of 36 MW Phase II expansion
  • 21. 72 MW San Jacinto-Tizate Geothermal Plant = 8% of Nicaragua’s installed capacity
  • 22. Current market situation • • • • • • Current development would triple installed capacity Growth markets: Asia, Eastern Africa, South America Continuing financial constraints Role of development banks Vendor and export financing Limit in industry capabilities
  • 23. Canadian opportunities Investment / Finance Development Service s Education Technology/ Supply
  • 24. • Global news • Job Portal • Geothermal Power Plant Map • Social media • iPhone app • Free pictures • Services www. ThinkGeoEnergy. com
  • 25. Contact Alexander Richter ThinkGeoEnergy.com alex@thinkgeoenergy.com Follow me: Twitter: @thinkgeoenergy LinkedIn Group: ThinkGeoEnergy Flickr.com/thinkgeoenergy YouTube.com/thinkgeoenergy Slideshare.com/thinkgeoenergy

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