What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa? William Fulton January 12, 2012
What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa?• Lots of growth drivers are changing• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different approach to growth• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well as environmental) can help
Central Iowa is Growing and Changing• Central Iowa Is Growing At California Levels• Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly• Boomers and Millennials Will Drive the Markets
Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Polk Dallas Warren Madison 1990-2000 2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-201020,00015,00010,000 5,000 -(5,000) 1990-2000 2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
All of Iowa Is Developing Land AtA Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing Baby Boomers andMillennials are the two fastestgrowing demographicsegments in America Des Moines best place foryoung professionals Latino population is muchlarger than state averageAll these demographicgroups – especially youngprofessionals – are trendingaway from traditional suburbanlifestyle
Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive The Future Housing and Jobs Market 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 Population 40,000,000 Labor Force 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials
Americans Want MoreWalkable, SustainableNeighborhoods“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mixof houses, places to walk, and amenities within aneasy walk or close drive.”77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.88% place more value on the quality of the neighborhood than the size of the home.
Millennials Especially Are TrendingAway From Traditional Suburbs47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix of houses, shops, and businesses.40% would prefer a rural or a small town.12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood with houses only.
Americans Value “Sense of Place,”Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain Low-density suburbandevelopment rarely paysfor itself Costs are not justinfrastructure related butalso operations andmaintenance Burden usually falls ontaxpayers Low-density development means higher snowplowing costs to accommodate fewer people.
And As Our Population Ages …… these fiscalburdens on thetaxpayers are likelyonly to get greater
And Where’s The Money Going To Come From? Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody wants to make tough choices Current options: Increase the gas tax Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?) Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)$0.45$0.40$0.35$0.30$0.25$0.20$0.15$0.10$0.05 $- 1993 Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax 2011 Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
Compact development lowers costs at theneighborhood/project level Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs Source: City of Charlotte
How a Tomorrow Plan Helped Another RegionSacramento• Not a latte-guzzling coastal metropolis• State capital in agricultural area• Low (comparatively) housing prices• Growing rapidly in population
Prosperity?New urbanized land:661 square milesVMT:47.2 per HH per dayMode:Car: 93.7%Transit 0.8%Walk: 5.5%
Prosperity?New urbanized land:304 square milesVMT:34.9 per HH per dayMode:Car: 83.9%Transit 3.3%Walk: 12.9%
All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional consequences• You all have to work together on environmental and infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense for you locally
Good Luck With Tomorrow! You’ve got some great advantages here You have to a lot of work together in order to remain competitive worldwide. You don’t your tax revenue eaten up to service low- density sprawl You have to work together to get all this done
Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated toresearching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to morecommunities nationwide. www.smartgrowthamerica.org 1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355