What Will Tomorrow Look Like     In Central Iowa?         William Fulton        January 12, 2012
What Will Tomorrow Look         Like In Central Iowa?• Lots of growth drivers are changing• Long-term economic competitive...
Central Iowa is Growing and Changing• Central Iowa Is  Growing At  California Levels• Central Iowa Is  Growing Unevenly• B...
Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California          County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010 60,000 50,000 40,...
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly              City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-201020,00015,00010,000 5,000    -(...
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
All of Iowa Is Developing Land AtA Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing Baby Boomers andMillennials are the two fastestgrowing demographicsegments in Am...
Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive The Future Housing and Jobs Market 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,...
Americans Want MoreWalkable, SustainableNeighborhoods“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mixof houses, places to...
Millennials Especially Are TrendingAway From Traditional Suburbs47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix ...
Americans Value “Sense of Place,”Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain Low-density suburbandevelopment rarely paysfor itself Costs are not justinfrastruct...
And As Our Population Ages …… these fiscalburdens on thetaxpayers are likelyonly to get greater
And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?  Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt  Congress can’t pass transportation bi...
Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power                Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)$0.45$0.40$0.35$0.30$0.25$0.20$0.15$0....
Compact development lowers costs at theneighborhood/project level    Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage an...
How a Tomorrow Plan             Helped Another RegionSacramento• Not a latte-guzzling  coastal metropolis• State capital i...
Prosperity?New urbanized land:661 square milesVMT:47.2 per HH per dayMode:Car: 93.7%Transit 0.8%Walk: 5.5%
Prosperity?New urbanized land:304 square milesVMT:34.9 per HH per dayMode:Car: 83.9%Transit 3.3%Walk: 12.9%
All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional  consequences• You all have t...
Good Luck     With Tomorrow! You’ve got some great  advantages here You have to a lot of work  together in order to rema...
Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated toresearching, advocating for and leading coalitions to b...
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
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  • What time frame?
  • Highest population cities are mostly concentrated along I-80
  • A number of indicators point to smart growth’s rising popularity.First and foremost, we all know that home prices in downtowns and urban areas are higher than suburbs. This is, on the one hand, a sign of the Incredible-Hulk-like strength of market demand for these neighborhoods. But those high prices also mean that many A 2011 poll from the National Association of Realtors found that a majority of Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods over neighborhoods that require more driving. 77 percent of respondents said they would look for neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian-friendly features when considering buying a home. 50 percent would like to see improvements to existing public transportation rather than initiatives to build new roads and developments.Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
  • Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
  • Cities want MillennialsYounger workers are highly skilled and educated. More than 90 percent are high school graduates, and more than a third have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Many areas of the country, the 24-to-35-year-old contingent is the highest educated. (Patriot-News, below)Many cities, in turn, are building the sort of development Millennials want in order to attract them – and the companies that employ them.“Close-in neighborhoods with higher density, mixed uses, walkable destinations, lively commercial districts and interesting streets can make a region more competitive for talented workers. Good public services, including transit, schools and parks, make close-in neighborhoods even more appealing.” – CEOs for Cities’ “The Young and the Restless in a Knowledge EconomyCites:“Brain drain isn't central Pa. problem anymore.” Patriot-News (Penn.), July 23, 2011. http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2011/07/brain_drain_isnt_central_pa_pr.html“Young Professionals Drawn to Urban Living,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, August 6, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.jsonline.com/business/127075593.html“Detroit’s downtown ‘starting to fight back’,” The Washington Times, August 7, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/7/detroits-downtown-starting-to-fight-back/
  • Utilities also cost less. Financially stronger communities also benefit developers – appeal of the place, may have priority on SG projects and help facilitate them.
  • Bill fulton

    1. 1. What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa? William Fulton January 12, 2012
    2. 2. What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa?• Lots of growth drivers are changing• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different approach to growth• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well as environmental) can help
    3. 3. Central Iowa is Growing and Changing• Central Iowa Is Growing At California Levels• Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly• Boomers and Millennials Will Drive the Markets
    4. 4. Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Polk Dallas Warren Madison 1990-2000 2000-2010
    5. 5. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-201020,00015,00010,000 5,000 -(5,000) 1990-2000 2000-2010
    6. 6. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
    7. 7. All of Iowa Is Developing Land AtA Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
    8. 8. Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing Baby Boomers andMillennials are the two fastestgrowing demographicsegments in America Des Moines best place foryoung professionals Latino population is muchlarger than state averageAll these demographicgroups – especially youngprofessionals – are trendingaway from traditional suburbanlifestyle
    9. 9. Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive The Future Housing and Jobs Market 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 Population 40,000,000 Labor Force 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials
    10. 10. Americans Want MoreWalkable, SustainableNeighborhoods“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mixof houses, places to walk, and amenities within aneasy walk or close drive.”77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.88% place more value on the quality of the neighborhood than the size of the home.
    11. 11. Millennials Especially Are TrendingAway From Traditional Suburbs47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix of houses, shops, and businesses.40% would prefer a rural or a small town.12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood with houses only.
    12. 12. Americans Value “Sense of Place,”Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
    13. 13. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
    14. 14. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain Low-density suburbandevelopment rarely paysfor itself Costs are not justinfrastructure related butalso operations andmaintenance Burden usually falls ontaxpayers Low-density development means higher snowplowing costs to accommodate fewer people.
    15. 15. And As Our Population Ages …… these fiscalburdens on thetaxpayers are likelyonly to get greater
    16. 16. And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?  Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt  Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody wants to make tough choices  Current options:  Increase the gas tax  Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)  Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
    17. 17. Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)$0.45$0.40$0.35$0.30$0.25$0.20$0.15$0.10$0.05 $- 1993 Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax 2011 Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
    18. 18. Compact development lowers costs at theneighborhood/project level Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs Source: City of Charlotte
    19. 19. How a Tomorrow Plan Helped Another RegionSacramento• Not a latte-guzzling coastal metropolis• State capital in agricultural area• Low (comparatively) housing prices• Growing rapidly in population
    20. 20. Prosperity?New urbanized land:661 square milesVMT:47.2 per HH per dayMode:Car: 93.7%Transit 0.8%Walk: 5.5%
    21. 21. Prosperity?New urbanized land:304 square milesVMT:34.9 per HH per dayMode:Car: 83.9%Transit 3.3%Walk: 12.9%
    22. 22. All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional consequences• You all have to work together on environmental and infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense for you locally
    23. 23. Good Luck With Tomorrow! You’ve got some great advantages here You have to a lot of work together in order to remain competitive worldwide. You don’t your tax revenue eaten up to service low- density sprawl You have to work together to get all this done
    24. 24. Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated toresearching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to morecommunities nationwide. www.smartgrowthamerica.org 1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355

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