Q1 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index
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Q1 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index

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Groundbreaking resource for multinational companies. ...

Groundbreaking resource for multinational companies.

The Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index is joint production between KellyOCG and Eurasia Group.

The report leverages Kelly’s labor market knowledge with Eurasia Group’s expertise in political and socio-economic risk analysis to deliver an innovative resource tool for companies as they assess scenario plans around market investments and global labor strategies.

Published on a quarterly basis, the report is segmented by four geographies: the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, and the Middle East and Africa, with detailed insights on 55 countries. It is based on the detailed analysis of more than 30 metrics related to the labor market, and socio-economic, and political factors, layered with local expertise from in-country consultants.

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  • 1. Think ouTside. 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index eporT only ampler hodo l ogy s meT 
  • 2. Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index 2010 This is meThodology sample reporT only. To subscribe to the global market Brief & labor risk index, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief
  • 3. conTenTs 3 preface: rolf kleiner, senior Vice-president, kelly ocg & ian Bremmer, president, eurasia group 4 methodology 72 about sponsors The Americas Asia Pacific Europe and Eurasia Middle East and Africa 6 overview 17 overview 34 overview 60 overview 7 risk index 18 risk index 35 risk index 61 risk index 8 argentina 19 australia 36 Baltics 62 algeria 9 Brazil 20 Bangladesh 37 Belgium 63 egypt 10 canada 21 china 38 czech republic 64 ghana 11 chile 22 hong kong 39 denmark 65 israel 12 costa rica 23 india 40 France 66 kuwait 13 ecuador 24 indonesia 41 germany 67 morocco 14 mexico 25 Japan 42 hungary 68 Qatar 15 united states 26 malaysia 43 ireland 69 saudi arabia 27 new Zealand 44 italy 70 south africa 28 philippines 45 luxembourg 71 united arab emirates 29 singapore 46 netherlands 30 south korea 47 norway 31 Thailand 48 poland 32 Vietnam 49 portugal 50 romania 51 russia 52 serbia 53 spain 54 sweden 55 switzerland 56 Turkey 57 ukraine 58 united kingdom cover: sheikh lotfollah mosque – isfahan, iran © Syagci This material was produced by Eurasia Group in collaboration with KellyOCG. This is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment, trade matter, or issue, and should not be relied upon for such purposes. Eurasia Group is a private research and consulting firm. © 2010 KellyOCG and Eurasia Group.
  • 4. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Preface europe to ensure that their crisis-response frustration over high unemployment and eurasia middle easT policies do not have unwelcome may arise. This poses a risk primarily and aFrica consequences. China’s large stimulus in countries that also suffer from high aBouT sponsors package effectively spurred growth inflation, such as Venezuela in 2009 but raises concerns of and Argentina. overheating in 2010. The crisis also revealed long-term weaknesses in the Throughout the world, governments fiscal positions of several European facing high unemployment and governments. In order to restore fragile economic growth are caught investor confidence and a stable between expansionary policies that fiscal outlook, the governments would promote investment in the of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and long run, such as simplifying labor ➔ The global economic others will need to cut spending and regulations, and policies designed to crisis will recede further in 2010 as adopt politically distasteful structural mollify labor’s short-term demands, strengthening global demand and reforms. Such measures will be such as increased job security government stimulus spending unpopular, potentially leading to and benefits. In countries with boost economic growth. However, political instability and even approaching elections, such as economic policies, especially labor social unrest. South Korea and Brazil, incumbents market policies, will continue to will be tempted to engage in rolf kleiner, ian Bremmer, dominate government agendas. Although many governments will populist rhetoric, but the assessment senior Vice-president, president, continue to support labor markets of such risks will depend on country- kellyocg eurasia group The strength with which countries through economic stimulus, specific conditions. emerge from the downturn will vary employment growth consistently lags widely and governments will struggle broader economic recovery. Popular ■ ■ ■ 
  • 5. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Methodology europe For all variables, scores range macroeconomic environment the ability of labor to influence and eurasia from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ middle easT This indicator captures the current policymaking, and the near-term and aFrica and 10 is ‘low risk’. health of the macroeconomic potential for changes in the labor aBouT sponsors environment through an assessment regulatory environment. macro-poliTical/ of the stability of monetary and counTry risk labor availability fiscal policy, the stability of trade political environment The labor availability indicator and capital flows, and the quality of This indicator estimates the incorporates migration, urban economic performance, controlling predictability of the political population, the size of the labor for historic macroeconomic stability environment by measuring force, the extent to which women and the quality of official statistics. regime and government stability, participate in the labor force, government and opposition policy environment for and unemployment. effectiveness, and how well the foreign investment labor quality government functions. This indicator measures how ➔ The Global Market Brief & The quality of labor is measured Labor Risk Index is based on detailed hospitable the policy and regulatory social environment by the education and skill level of a analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique environment is for foreign investment This indicator captures the presence labor force, the general health of the labor market, socio-economic, and by assessing the extent to which and intensity of social conflict population, and labor productivity. political factors, layered with localized among ethnic and other minorities, there are barriers to economic expertise of in-country consultants. controlling for the mitigating effects activity and the degree to which labor contentment of the socioeconomic wellbeing of the economy is a destination for This indicator assesses the likelihood The analysis aggregates the foreign investment. of labor discontent by combining the the population and the equality of individual factors into 9 core risk existence or potential of near-term wealth distribution. variables: 5 macro variables and 4 labor unrest with the misery index, laBor risk labor variables that are each assigned security environment which incorporates unemployment a score on a 10-point scale projecting This indicator captures the issues labor market flexibility and inflation rates. the degree of risk over the next of personal security by incorporating This indicator captures labor market 90 days. Each risk variable is also both the risk of armed conflict flexibility, assessing the regulatory ■ ■ ■ assessed as to whether it is trending (either domestic or foreign) and environment that employers face negative or positive. criminal activity. in managing human resources, In addition to assessing the current risk environment, this report also takes into consideration the trajectory of risk trends. Arrows alongside risk scores explain where risks are likely to show a very positive trend (X X), positive trend (X), negative trend ( Y), very negative trend (Y Y ), or remain unchanged (blank) over the 3-month period of the report. 
  • 6. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview Overview: risk index and adjustments. Meanwhile, deficits will be necessary to boost argentina upcoming elections in Brazil, economic activity and create jobs. Brazil The Americas Colombia, and Venezuela will encourage incumbents to prioritize At the other end of the spectrum, canada chile those governments that have costa rica economic growth and investments ecuador pursued a heterodox policy mix in social spending programs over mexico (such as Argentina, Ecuador, and fiscal discipline. Governments that united states ➔ Countries in the Western Venezuela) will probably face asia paciFic have pursued orthodox economic Hemisphere are looking forward greater challenges, including europe policies throughout the past year and eurasia to a strong economic recovery in inflation and higher unemployment (including Brazil, Costa Rica, Chile, middle easT and underemployment levels. and aFrica 2010 following a difficult 2009. In and Panama) should be better Labor unrest looks increasingly aBouT sponsors most countries, this will tend to positioned to experience a stronger likely in countries such as Ecuador strengthen political stability and recovery and a gradual reduction and Argentina, where past policy help reduce the likelihood of major in unemployment levels. Canada, decisions have exacerbated the economic disruptions. However, Mexico, and the US will have a impact of the economic slowdown on improved economic conditions more difficult time. Employment unemployment, higher inflation, and and higher tax revenues may also rate increases are projected to decreased labor market flexibility. reduce government incentives to lag economic growth, while fiscal pursue needed economic reforms stimulus spending and higher ■ ■ ■ 
  • 7. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview The americas – risk index summary TaBle – Q1 2010 risk index argentina macro risks laBor risks Brazil Foreign canada political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment chile costa rica Argentina 5 Y 6 8 4 5 Y 5 4 7 4 Y ecuador mexico Brazil 7 X 6 6 6 X 5 Y 3 6 5 6 Y united states asia paciFic Canada 7 8 10 7 X 8 7 6 8 6 Y europe and eurasia Chile 7 6 9 5 X 7 7 5 8 6 Y middle easT and aFrica aBouT sponsors Costa Rica 7 X 7 8 6 X 7 X 6 4 5 6 Y Ecuador 6 Y 3 7 4 4 3 4 4 4 Y Y Mexico 6 6 5 Y 5 X 7 4 X 4 5 6 Y United States 8 Y 9 8 7 8 Y 8 8 9 7 Y Y For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • 8. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview Argentina risk index private estimates since early 2007. Inflation will probably become a argentina State spending grew 30% year-on- major problem in 2010. While official Brazil year in 2009, while revenue grew figures put annual inflation at 7%, canada chile by 19%. As a result, the federal private estimates put it above 12%, costa rica ➔ The economy seems to government posted a budget surplus and projections for 2010 are at 20%. ecuador have touched the low point on its of 1.5% of GDP, down from 3% of More importantly, inflation could mexico path to recovery. Official statistics GDP in 2008. However, this result soar far higher driven by a recovering united states show the economy grew by 2.2% reflects some creative accounting. economy, expansionary fiscal and asia paciFic More sober estimates indicate that europe year-on-year in November 2009, monetary policies, and high wage and eurasia and the government expects the the budget registered a deficit increases. Powerful labor unions middle easT The political system is in a and aFrica economy to have grown around of 1.6% of GDP. Argentina’s fiscal have already stated they will seek aBouT sponsors 0.5% in 2009 compared to total accounts will probably continue to wage hikes of around 25% in annual delicate balance. While the 2008 GDP. Private analysts disagree, deteriorate in 2010. The government negotiations to take place during the government has been able to however, suggesting the economy plans to move ahead with the first half of the year. The government, regain the political initiative likely experienced a pronounced restructuring of $20 billion debt still in and bolster its position with in need of union support, is unlikely contraction of close to 3% in 2009. default later in the year, but domestic two years left in power, its to be able to moderate these claims. Official estimates regarding inflation political problems threaten to delay ability to continue doing have also diverged widely from the deal. ■ ■ ■ so will be limited in such a tense environment. Relations with congress will probably become more complicated now that the administration low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS has lost its majority in both 9 houses. Political tension will 8 rise as the government tries 7 to maintain the initiative 6 5 and weaken its adversaries. 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 9. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview United States risk index (estimated at 10%–12% of GDP in Democrats are likely to pass up to argentina 2009) will likely remain high in 2010, $200 billion in additional stimulus Brazil thanks to the existing structural spending, some of which may canada chile deficit, a decline in revenue caused include middle-class tax breaks and costa rica ➔ The economy is continuing by slumping economic activity, unemployment assistance. ecuador to stabilize after a precipitous stimulus spending, and exiting of the mexico Despite the looming elections, the drop in economic activity during bailout programs. united states administration will not necessarily asia paciFic 2008 and the first half of 2009. With midterm elections at the end move aggressively on organized europe The economy started to grow and eurasia of the year, the Barack Obama labor priorities. Though it must retain again in the third quarter of 2009, middle easT administration will likely promote the support of labor as November and aFrica and it is projected to strengthen Part of a successful midterm policies popular with middle- approaches—and sensitivity to labor election campaign for the aBouT sponsors throughout 2010. However, recovery class voters, such as making Wall interests will continue to restrain Democrats will be convincing is expected to remain fragile, with Street repay bailout funds. The the administration’s ambitions voters that the party and its unemployment likely to hover administration and Democrat- when it comes to a proactive trade leaders can prudently manage around 10% through 2010. High agenda—issues such as “card check” the deficit. A combination of unemployment, contributing to weak controlled Congress will also face are unlikely to move ahead on labor’s fiscal restraint and populist consumer demand, will pressure the competing pressures to support terms. politics could very well result government to further support the job growth and the economy economy. The government deficit while showing fiscal responsibility. ■ ■ ■ in tax hikes on financial firms, the wealthy, and multinational corporations. While the president will low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS begin to build a case for 9 restraining government 8 expenditures and raising 7 revenue in coming years, 6 5 efforts this year will likely 4 provide more show than go. 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 10. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: overview of overheating, such as inflation. on a combination of resurgent risk index This year’s growth prospects for global demand and their ability australia Asia Pacific these countries are bright, and they appear poised to extend their lead to manage domestic political distractions. In countries such as Bangladesh china hong kong over the rest of the region. In other the Philippines, Thailand, and india countries, where growth prospects Malaysia, where domestic political indonesia may be lower but are also on a developments are likely to hinder Japan firm footing, such as in Australia, policymaking, prospects are less malaysia certain. In others, such as Singapore new Zealand Bangladesh, and South Korea, ➔ The outlook for most of and New Zealand, where political philippines government policy is also beginning the Asia-Pacific region in 2010 is distractions will not pose a threat singapore to shift to reflect changing priorities. to growth, economic performance south korea significantly improved from 2009, Thailand with Japan being the only notable Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific the is likely to track regional and global Vietnam laggard. For the region’s fastest picture is slightly different. For growth patterns more closely. europe growing economies—led in 2009 countries where growth, while Japan is the region’s sole outlier. and eurasia Growth prospects remain tepid as middle easT by China and with India, Indonesia, improved, is still fragile, their and aFrica and Vietnam not far behind—the policymakers face the challenge respective governments are aBouT sponsors of dealing with deflation amid focus for policymakers has shifted relying on stimulus policies to continued political uncertainties. from fiscal stimulus to deficit secure a stable return to growth. management and reining in signs Prospects for these countries rely ■ ■ ■ 
  • 11. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic asia paciFic – risk index summary TaBle – Q1 2010 overview risk index macro risks laBor risks australia Foreign Bangladesh political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment china hong kong Australia 8 9 Y 9 7 X 8 Y 8 7 8 7 india Bangladesh 5 4 4 4 4 Y 4 3 1 4 indonesia Japan China 6 4 8 Y 6 6 Y 4 6 X 5 5 malaysia new Zealand Hong Kong 7 Y 7 10 7 X 9 7 6 8 7 philippines India 6 4 7 X 3 Y 3 5 5 X 3 5 singapore south korea Indonesia 7 X 6 8 6 X 5 X 3 6 X 4 5 Y Thailand Vietnam Japan 7 Y 9 10 6 8 6 Y 7 9 7 europe and eurasia Malaysia 6 Y 4 YY 7 5 X 7 6 4 7 7 middle easT and aFrica New Zealand 8 9 10 6 X 9 Y 8 7 8 7 aBouT sponsors Philippines 5 XX 5 6 5 X 4 X 5 5 X 5 8 Singapore 8 Y 8 Y 8 7 X 9 7 5 8 7 Y South Korea 6 Y 9 7 6 8 5 X 5 Y 7 5 Y Thailand 4 Y 5 7 Y 5 7 7 5 6 7 Vietnam 7 X 5 8 4 X 6 5 4 4 7 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • 12. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Australia overview economic recovery remains fragile. are of particular concern, and risk index Some economic fundamentals point Treasurer Wayne Swan is expected australia to a general recovery, including to release a report in the first Bangladesh china stronger consumer confidence, as half of 2010 on the budgetary hong kong ➔ Having been one of the first well as a drop in unemployment challenges associated with an india OECD countries to recover from to 5.5% in December from 5.7% aging population. While the ratio of indonesia the global economic downturn, the previous month. The improved retirees to the working population Japan the Australian government is now outlook could give the central bank is currently 1:5, it is expected to malaysia new Zealand working to rein in budget deficits room to raise interest rates again in fall to 1:2.7 by 2050, although that philippines that the Kevin Rudd government March, following three hikes late number is an improvement from singapore says ballooned because of spikes last year. previous estimates. Achieving Healthcare will top the south korea in government spending during Rudd’s productivity growth target is reform agenda for 2010, Thailand the boom years of John Howard’s Rudd has been pushing his reform expected to require major economic although opposition Vietnam administration in the late 1990s and agenda during 2010, outlining a reforms that may be difficult in light support will be difficult europe and eurasia early 2000s. Rudd’s stimulus plan goal of 2% annual productivity to secure. The opposition of current economic conditions and middle easT has been criticized for widening the growth in order to increase GDP by rejected Rudd’s first health and aFrica anticipated opposition resistance. deficit, although Rudd has resisted 570 billion Australian dollars ($504 insurance bill last year. The aBouT sponsors calls to reduce stimulus expenditures billion) by 2050. The demographic ■ ■ ■ government is expected to on the grounds that the country’s shifts expected in that time frame reintroduce the legislation in February, with the goal of implementing means testing for private health low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS insurance rebates. Another 9 negative vote would give 8 Rudd the option to call an 7 early election. The opposition 6 5 spokesman on finance has 4 urged the opposition to 3 compromise, but opposition 2 leader Tony Abbott remains 1 adamantly opposed. high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 13. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Singapore overview global demand for exports. A important concern. Foreign labor risk index slump in demand for Singapore’s from Malaysia, India, and China australia manufacturing exports in the has crept into the semi-skilled and Bangladesh china fourth quarter of 2009 led to a 7% lower-skilled categories, displacing hong kong ➔ Singapore’s economic contraction, after growth had surged local workers. At the same time, india recovery is expected to gain in the second and third quarters higher-end professionals, managers, indonesia momentum in 2010, after it by 21% and 14%, respectively. executives, and technicians have Japan performed better than expected been displaced by expatriates who malaysia Nevertheless, the government, are more willing to work on local new Zealand in 2009. The economy contracted which maintains sufficient fiscal philippines by just 2.1% in 2009, surpassing terms. In addition, by mid-year the reserves to fund more stimulus, singapore earlier projections that it may shrink government is due to wind down The government’s 2010 south korea can be expected to provide further its Jobs Credit Scheme—a fiscal budget will focus on boosting Thailand by up to 9%. The government now support for the economy if there are stimulus package designed to growth and employment Vietnam projects 2010 growth of between signs that global demand is weak. support employment by subsiding because elections are due europe 3% and 5%, with the opening of and eurasia salaries in companies that retained by mid-2011. Although the first of two integrated resorts Despite the improving economic middle easT workers during the global financial the ruling People’s Action and aFrica in January 2010 expected to have picture, structural unemployment crisis. This could have a negative Party (PAP) will comfortably aBouT sponsors significant spillover effects for the among Singapore’s resident labor impact on employment, especially win the next elections even broader economy. However, the force, which reached a seasonally if the economy remains manufacturing jobs. projections also rely on improving adjusted 5% in late 2009, is an weak, poor growth and ■ ■ ■ high unemployment would increase support for the low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS opposition and erode the 9 PAP’s legitimacy. The PAP has 8 governed since independence, 7 and the party won 82 of the 6 5 84 elected seats in parliament 4 in 2006, despite winning only 3 66% of the popular vote. 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 14. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: europe term outlook is unclear. Fiscal politics towns. However, the government and eurasia has financial and coercive resources overview in the eurozone are becoming Europe and Eurasia increasingly volatile and uneven, with dramatic implications for the at hand to limit the spread of social instability, and unrest would risk index Baltics Belgium growth and inflation outlook as well pose little threat to underlying czech republic as the interest rate environment. political stability. denmark This situation will persist for some France ➔ Fiscal strains are a fast- In Turkey, factional politics will germany time. Businesses and investors will growing risk across Europe. largely block the legislative hungary need to take careful account of process. Policy inertia is likely to ireland With a combination of extremely specific sector and firm implications, italy high public debt, lax policy and prevail throughout 2010, and the suggesting a much more complex luxembourg massive risks to competitiveness, prospects for progress on structural and diverse business environment in netherlands the situation in Greece is a huge reforms and the country’s bid for norway Europe for years to come. test of fiscal policy coordination EU membership are dim. With the poland in the eurozone. In the near term, Russia’s macroeconomic situation ruling party facing a marked decline portugal in its popularity, the temptation to romania Greece is likely to get support is steadily improving after that russia resort to populist policies will be from other eurozone countries to country saw the sharpest contraction serbia considerable, especially as the 2011 prevent default, and its government of any major economy during the spain election approaches. will launch a program of fiscal economic crisis. Social instability is sweden consolidation. However, the longer- a risk, particularly in single-company ■ ■ ■ switzerland Turkey ukraine united kingdom middle easT and aFrica aBouT sponsors 
  • 15. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology europe and eurasia – risk index summary TaBle – Q1 2010 The americas asia paciFic macro risks laBor risks europe and eurasia Foreign political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment overview risk index Baltics 6 6 8 4 7 3 5 7 3 Y Baltics Belgium 6 7 Y 8 6 9 5 5 8 5 Belgium Czech Republic 5 Y 9 8 5 6 6 6 8 5 czech republic denmark Denmark 7 9 7 7 X 9 6 5 8 6 France France 7 8 Y 7 6 8 X 4 6 8 5 germany Germany 7 9 8 6 8 3 Y 6 9 4 hungary ireland Hungary 5 Y 8 9 5 Y 8 6 5 7 4 Y italy Ireland 5 9 8 5 9 6 6 8 4 Y luxembourg Italy 6 7 7 6 6 Y 4 5 8 5 netherlands norway Luxembourg 7 9 8 6 X 8 4 4 9 7 poland Netherlands 6 8 8 7 X 8 4 5 8 7 portugal Norway 7 9 8 7 X 9 5 5 9 8 romania russia Poland 5 X 7 9 5 X 7 6 6 7 5 serbia Portugal 6 8 7 5 Y 7 2 6 7 4 Y spain Romania 6 6 7 3 8 4 5 6 4 Y sweden switzerland Russia 6 6 X 4 6 X 6 X 5 6 X 5 6 Turkey Serbia 6 5 7 3 6 X 5 4 6 2 ukraine united kingdom Spain 6 7 7 5 7 2 8 8 3 Y middle easT Sweden 8 9 8 6 X 8 3 6 9 6 and aFrica aBouT sponsors Switzerland 7 8 8 7 X 8 5 5 9 8 Turkey 8 X 6 Y 7 5 7 5 4 4 4 Y Ukraine 4 X 4 8 3 X 6 6 4 5 5 United Kingdom 7 Y 8 7 7 9 7 6 8 5 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • 16. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Belgium europe continue Van Rompuy’s policies to More political tension may and eurasia overview contain the deficit and the relative follow as the French-speaking risk index stability across Belgium’s ethno- south experiences a higher Baltics linguistic boarders. The government rate of unemployment than the Belgium ➔ Belgium experienced 5.4% is to introduce levies on banks, Dutch-speaking north, with the czech republic year-on-year GDP growth in the life insurers, and nuclear power construction, manufacturing, denmark producers in 2010. The money from France third quarter of 2009, while the and services industries being the germany unemployment rate was 7.9%. these industries, which received most affected. Renewable energy hungary After Prime Minister Herman Van government aid during the crisis, will and renovation will benefit from ireland Rompuy assumed the new post then be used for VAT discounts on subsidies in Wallonia starting in May italy of EU president in late 2009, Yves construction projects and restaurant 2010. Employment prospects may Belgium will assume the luxembourg Leterme replaced him. Leterme had meals. This has the potential to depend more on regional reforms, rotating six-month presidency netherlands previously resigned from this role in increase demand and possibly spur because the government is slower of the Council of the norway poland 2008 amid a scandal over the rescue employment. Further support for to implement changes and the European Union in July. In portugal consumers will come from increased addition to the government’s of a financial group and complicated regions have different employment romania unemployment benefits, including coalition dialogue, this russia government coalition building. situations. additional ones for workers with post has the ability to slow serbia Leterme signaled that he would individual contracts. ■ ■ ■ reform, as policymakers spain divert attention to EU issues. sweden Pension reform currently switzerland Turkey under consideration and ukraine many current unemployment united kingdom MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS low risk 10 benefit measures are only middle easT 9 valid until the end of June. and aFrica aBouT sponsors 8 Further efforts to curb the 7 relatively high unemployment 6 5 rate face planning and 4 implementation risk. 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 17. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Germany europe to reduce employment subsidies at necessitate layoffs in the near future. and eurasia the end of 2010. overview In addition to supporting the labor risk index Baltics The efficiency of short-term work market, the government enacted Belgium and similar programs depends in several tax breaks, which came ➔ Germany has maintained a czech republic part on the strength of recovery in into effect in January 2010. These relatively low unemployment rate denmark global demand in 2010, because include an increase in the childcare France during the recession (currently about many of the firms using these allowance, a higher tax credit for germany 7%), in part because of popular measures depend on export hungary those with dependent children, short-time work programs, which ireland sales. Recognizing the economy’s and VAT decreases for hotels— allow employees to work reduced italy overreliance on exports, the amounting to €8.5 billion (about hours while continuing to receive While officially the luxembourg government plans to increase $11.9 billion) in tax reductions thus government has signaled netherlands the majority of their wages through spending on education and research far, with more to come throughout that there is no broad-based norway government subsidies. However, to 7% of GDP by 2015 in order to poland the year. However, these tax breaks credit crunch, studies show firms are facing pressure from boost competitiveness and support portugal are not guaranteed after 2010, as that businesses are facing romania credit constraints—in addition to the labor market in the short term. increasing challenges in the government will likely attempt to russia continued weak demand—which However, firms, such as those in securing credit. Small and rein in its growing deficit. serbia may hinder their ability to retain the auto industry, may still need to medium-sized businesses, spain employees as the government plans make structural changes that would ■ ■ ■ which provide about 75% sweden of jobs in Germany, are switzerland Turkey particularly affected. The ukraine government is crafting a united kingdom low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS proposal for banks to develop middle easT 9 a fund to provide loans to and aFrica aBouT sponsors 8 medium-sized businesses. 7 While the government would 6 5 not be directly involved in the 4 fund, it would absorb some 3 of the banks’ associated risks. 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 18. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: europe Iran, and Yemen, it is unlikely that in the short term, but as the year and eurasia middle easT regional conflicts will have a broad progresses, tensions with Iran and Middle East and aFrica destabilizing effect on the GCC. The with Hizbullah in Lebanon could overview countries will also likely coordinate temper that confidence. In sub- risk index and Africa security policy more closely. Saharan Africa, states such as Ghana and South Africa will remain broadly algeria egypt ghana To the Persian Gulf’s west, 2010 will market-friendly, but will also have israel ➔ In the Middle East, the be a mixed bag for the Arab states to contend with rising domestic kuwait states of the Gulf Cooperation of North Africa. Egypt and Morocco, morocco tension that could lead to policy and Council (GCC) will slowly begin to both relatively stable in the short Qatar reform slowdowns. On the upside, term, will continue to court foreign saudi arabia rebound from the global financial Ghana’s new oil production may south africa crisis and the resulting recession in investment with market-friendly provide a new source of cash for the united arab early 2010. With higher oil prices reform, while Algeria’s statist policies emirates government, and a successful World and generally stable politics, growth will continue to hinder investment. aBouT sponsors Cup this summer would shine a will return to the region. And while Israel withstood the worst of the positive light on South Africa. the GCC states will continue to global financial crisis and is likely to warily watch developments in Iraq, see a stable political environment ■ ■ ■ 
  • 19. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic europe middle easT and aFrica – risk index summary TaBle – Q1 2010 and eurasia middle easT and aFrica macro risks laBor risks overview Foreign risk index political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment algeria egypt Algeria 4 4 Y 4 4 Y 4 2 Y 5 3 2 Y ghana israel Egypt 6 5 Y 7 5 Y 5 6 3 3 2 kuwait morocco Ghana 5 Y 3 8 3 X 4 3 5 2 3 YY Qatar saudi arabia Israel 7 7 6 X 8 X 7 6 X 5 8 7 X south africa united arab Kuwait 5 6 7 5 X 4 7 3 7 7 emirates aBouT sponsors Morocco 7 X 5 8 5 6 5 X 4 X 3 X 5 Qatar 8 8 7 5 X 6 7 X 3 5 9 Saudi Arabia 7 6 6 5 X 6 7 5 6 6 South Africa 7 4 Y 6 5 6 YY 3 Y 6 5 3 X United Arab Emirates 8 7 7 4 Y 5 8 4 7 6 Y For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • 20. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Israel europe the move that would trigger a new appearing to be on the right track and eurasia middle easT electoral season. The approval of a will let Netanyahu dedicate time and aFrica two-year budget in 2009 means that and resources to international overview the usually rancorous annual debate diplomacy. However, it is also quite risk index algeria ➔ Israel withstood the worst over spending will not happen in likely that Israel will engage in egypt of the global financial crisis and 2010, and that economic policy for another military campaign against ghana is on a somewhat satisfactory the most part remains in the Bank of Hamas in 2010. Iran, meanwhile, is a israel trajectory in the diplomatic Israel’s (BoI) very competent hands. much bigger concern for Israel than kuwait arena. These two factors have Israel’s budget deficit is projected to either the West Bank or Gaza Strip, morocco contributed to a prevailing mood Qatar be approximately 4.9% of GDP for but Netanyahu has shown that he is There is a high likelihood that saudi arabia of complacency that is likely to 2010, with a 2010 GDP growth rate willing to work with the US timeline south africa continue throughout 2010. The expected to approach 2%. Inflation Israel will reengage Hamas in for seeing real Iranian commitment united arab domestic political environment is the Gaza Strip in 2010. Hamas emirates for 2010 is anticipated to be 3.9%, to negotiations and the eventual surprisingly stable and does not is likely to avoid provoking aBouT sponsors and unemployment is expected to imposition of sanctions. appear to be vulnerable. Prime Israel, but at the same time rise to 8% by the middle of the year. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has it is trying to use the lull ■ ■ ■ constructed a durable coalition; no The combination of a calm domestic following Israel’s Operation party is likely to leave it in 2010, Cast Lead in 2008–2009 to political outlook and the economy rearm. Any Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip will likely spark concerns about security in Israel in general, low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS but Gaza campaigns actually 9 have very little impact on 8 Israel more broadly, including 7 the business environment. 6 5 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 21. conTenTs gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic South Africa europe dividends that it will yield for will be concerned about the likely and eurasia middle easT President Jacob Zuma and the ruling corporate tax hikes needed to pay and aFrica African National Congress (ANC), for additional social benefits, as will overview tension over high unemployment foreign investors. risk index ➔ South Africa’s 2009 will continue to escalate. Radicals algeria Zuma, meanwhile, will come under egypt economic contraction is easing, within the South African Communist increasing pressure to reshuffle his ghana and GDP growth for 2010 is Party and the ANC believe that cabinet to address growing public israel estimated by the IMF to reach government economic policy has kuwait unease about unemployment. almost 2%. However, inflation been ineffective in dealing with morocco Minister of Labor Membathisi curbing unemployment and want Qatar is currently running higher than Mdladlana, despite being close South Africa’s media and saudi arabia the central bank’s 6% target, and to push the government to adopt to the trade union leadership, has south africa unemployment remains high at 26%. more radical policies. Julius Malema, advertising industry, which lost credibility because of rising united arab leader of the ANC’s Youth League, has slumped in recent emirates The central bank will be caught in a unemployment and is at risk in any has pushed the government to months due to the economic aBouT sponsors conundrum between raising interest cabinet shakeup. Alternatively, if consider nationalization of the recession, will rebound with rates to stave off inflation or easing Zuma does not move Mdladlana mining sector, larger government the influx of millions of rates to support GDP growth. out of his portfolio, Zuma will ask advertising dollars related subsidies to unemployed the minister of finance to increase to the World Cup. The Despite the national euphoria workers, and an accelerated land social subsidies in his February month-long tournament surrounding the approaching World redistribution program. On the budget statement. will also bring in hundreds Cup tournament and the political other hand, business sector interests ■ ■ ■ of thousands of tourists, providing an opportunity for low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS local businesses to increase 9 sales and advertise their 8 brands to a global audience. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 22. gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 About this Report The Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index is jointly developed by KellyOCG, the Outsourcing and Consulting Group of human resources provider, Kelly Services and Eurasia Group, the global political risk consultancy. The report, a proprietary blend leveraging Kelly’s labor market knowledge with Eurasia Group’s expertise in political and socio-economic risk analysis, delivers a groundbreaking resource for companies as they assess market investments and global labor strategies. Published on a quarterly basis, the Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index is segmented by four geographies: the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, and the Middle East and Africa, with detailed insights for 55 of the world’s most important economies. About Eurasia Group Eurasia Group is the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Since 1998, it has helped clients make informed business decisions in countries where understanding the political landscape is critical. The firm’s research analysts are trained social scientists with post-graduate degrees, extensive professional experience, and a diverse range of language capabilities. Headquartered in New York, it also has offices in Washington and London, as well as a network of experts around the world. For more information, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net. About KellyOCG KellyOCG is the Outsourcing and Consulting Group of Fortune 500 human resources solutions provider, Kelly Services, Inc. KellyOCG is a global leader in innovative talent management solutions in the areas of Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO), Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Contingent Workforce Outsourcing (CWO), including Independent Contractor Solutions, Human Resources Consulting, Career Transition and Organizational Effectiveness, and Executive Search. Visit www.kellyocg.com. To Receive this Report This report is available on an annual subscription basis. To access a complimentary report abstract, and for full subscription details, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief More Information To find out more about how the KellyOCG / Eurasia Group partnership can add insight to your global planning, please contact marketbrief@kellyservices.com  exiT 
  • 23. gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q1 2010 kellyocg.com/marketbrief 