Q4 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index
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Q4 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index

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Groundbreaking resource for multinational companies. ...

Groundbreaking resource for multinational companies.

The Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index is joint production between KellyOCG and Eurasia Group.

The report leverages Kelly’s labor market knowledge with Eurasia Group’s expertise in political and socio-economic risk analysis to deliver an innovative resource tool for companies as they assess scenario plans around market investments and global labor strategies.

Published on a quarterly basis, the report is segmented by four geographies: the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, and the Middle East and Africa, with detailed insights on 55 countries. It is based on the detailed analysis of more than 30 metrics related to the labor market, and socio-economic, and political factors, layered with local expertise from in-country consultants.

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Q4 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index Q4 2010 Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index Presentation Transcript

  • Think ouTside. Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index ampler 2010 eporT 4 only hodo l ogy s meT 
  • Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index 2010 This is meThodology sample reporT only. 4 To subscribe to the global market Brief & labor risk index, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief
  • conTenTs 3 preface: rolf kleiner, senior Vice-president, kelly ocg & ian Bremmer, president, eurasia group 4 methodology 72 about sponsors The Americas Asia Pacific Europe and Eurasia Middle East and Africa 6 overview 17 overview 34 overview 60 overview 7 risk index 18 risk index 35 risk index 61 risk index 8 argentina 19 australia 36 Baltics 62 algeria 9 Brazil 20 china 37 Belgium 63 egypt 10 canada 21 hong kong 38 czech republic 64 ghana 11 chile 22 india 39 denmark 65 israel 12 costa rica 23 indonesia 40 France 66 kuwait 13 ecuador 24 Japan 41 germany 67 morocco 14 mexico 25 malaysia 42 hungary 68 Qatar 15 united states 26 new Zealand 43 ireland 69 saudi arabia 27 pakistan 44 italy 70 south africa 28 philippines 45 luxembourg 71 united arab emirates 29 singapore 46 netherlands 30 south korea 47 norway 31 Thailand 48 poland 32 Vietnam 49 portugal 50 romania 51 russia 52 serbia 53 spain 54 sweden 55 switzerland 56 Turkey 57 ukraine 58 united kingdom cover: sunflower field © 2008 Tobias Helbig This material was produced by Eurasia Group in collaboration with KellyOCG. This is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment, trade matter, or issue, and should not be relied upon for such purposes. Eurasia Group is a private research and consulting firm. © 2010 KellyOCG and Eurasia Group. 
  • conTenTs 4 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Preface europe have caused social unrest, and on grow robustly. This growth and eurasia middle easT 29 September, tens of thousands continues to cause concerns and aFrica of people participated in a about rising inflation, however, aBouT sponsors coordinated strike across and about dependence on the 12 European countries. Chinese economy, which could lose momentum. Inflation is Economic growth is also weak in particularly problematic in the the US, but there, the government context of recent efforts by is not turning to austerity measures. In fact, no policy changes are several governments to stem likely this quarter, as policymakers currency appreciation. are focused on the November Economies throughout the Middle ➔ Throughout 2010, congressional election. Persistent East and Africa are posting developed markets have high unemployment and weak growth, particularly oil exporters, rebounded more slowly than growth in the US are also damaging including Gulf Cooperation Council emerging markets, lagging behind economies that depend on US demand, such as those of Mexico members. Still, governments them in economic growth and and Canada. Other regional throughout the region continue to employment. In Europe, all eyes economies appear to have struggle to address high rates of will be watching as governments rolf kleiner, ian Bremmer, decoupled from the US, however, youth unemployment, particularly implement austerity budgets senior Vice-president, president, and are growing strongly, most in Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and kellyocg eurasia group for 2011 in order to rein in their notably those of Brazil, Chile, and Algeria. This is a chronic problem in debt, while the outlook is weak Argentina. these societies that poses a threat for growth. Widespread spending to long-term stability. cuts and tax increases in the face of Led by China, the Asia-Pacific sluggish economic growth economies also continue to ■ ■ ■ 
  • conTenTs 5 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Methodology europe For all variables, scores range macroeconomic environment the ability of labor to influence and eurasia from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ middle easT This indicator captures the current policymaking, and the near-term and aFrica and 10 is ‘low risk’. health of the macroeconomic potential for changes in the labor aBouT sponsors environment through an assessment regulatory environment. macro-poliTical/ of the stability of monetary and counTry risk labor availability fiscal policy, the stability of trade political environment The labor availability indicator and capital flows, and the quality of This indicator estimates the incorporates migration, urban economic performance, controlling predictability of the political population, the size of the labor for historic macroeconomic stability environment by measuring force, the extent to which women and the quality of official statistics. regime and government stability, participate in the labor force, government and opposition policy environment for and unemployment. effectiveness, and how well the foreign investment labor quality government functions. This indicator measures how ➔ The Global Market Brief & The quality of labor is measured Labor Risk Index is based on detailed hospitable the policy and regulatory social environment by the education and skill level of a analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique environment is for foreign investment This indicator captures the presence labor force, the general health of the labor market, socio-economic, and by assessing the extent to which and intensity of social conflict population, and labor productivity. political factors, layered with localized among ethnic and other minorities, there are barriers to economic expertise of in-country consultants. controlling for the mitigating effects activity and the degree to which labor contentment of the socioeconomic wellbeing of the economy is a destination for This indicator assesses the likelihood The analysis aggregates the foreign investment. of labor discontent by combining the the population and the equality of individual factors into 9 core risk existence or potential of near-term wealth distribution. variables: 5 macro variables and 4 labor unrest with the misery index, laBor risk labor variables that are each assigned security environment which incorporates unemployment a score on a 10-point scale projecting This indicator captures the issues labor market flexibility and inflation rates. the degree of risk over the next of personal security by incorporating This indicator captures labor market 90 days. Each risk variable is also both the risk of armed conflict flexibility, assessing the regulatory ■ ■ ■ assessed as to whether it is trending (either domestic or foreign) and environment that employers face negative or positive. criminal activity. in managing human resources, In addition to assessing the current risk environment, this report also takes into consideration the trajectory of risk trends. Arrows alongside risk scores explain where risks are likely to show a very positive trend (X X), positive trend (X), negative trend (Y), very negative trend (Y Y ), or remain unchanged (blank) over the 3-month period of the report. 
  • conTenTs 6 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview Overview: risk index Inflation, however, remains in doubt. While Canada has argentina problematic in Argentina, and the outperformed other industrialized Brazil The Americas government seems unwilling to make any policy adjustments that nations, a slowdown in the US, a canada chile slumping domestic housing sector, costa rica could slow growth. By contrast, and the end of the government ecuador the Chilean central bank has stimulus program is leading to a mexico been raising rates to prevent slowdown as well. Dependence united states ➔ Most countries are still the economy from overheating. asia paciFic on the US market has dampened experiencing a robust recovery europe Unemployment has also decreased Mexico’s recovery, although there and eurasia from the 2008–2009 economic in most countries, particularly in middle easT are signs that internal demand downturn. Argentina, Brazil, and and aFrica Brazil. Labor reforms in Ecuador is picking up. The recovery aBouT sponsors Chile continue to beat growth and Mexico are likely to be blocked has also been limited in Costa expectations, boosting their by strong union opposition, while Rica and Ecuador, where the governments’ popularity. In Brazil, labor activism continues to increase governments lack policy flexibility for example, Dilma Rousseff of the in Argentina. and are struggling to pass governing Workers’ Party remains necessary structural reforms. In heavily favored to win a 31 October In other countries, the recovery late September, efforts to reduce second-round runoff. Popular has been inhibited by structural support for Cristina Fernandez de spending led to major political problems or by close economic Kirchner in Argentina and Sebastian instability in Ecuador. relations with the US, where the Pinera in Chile has also increased. strength of recovery is very much ■ ■ ■ 
  • conTenTs 7 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview The americas – risk index summary TaBle – Q4 2010 risk index argentina macro risks laBor risks Brazil Foreign canada political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment chile costa rica Argentina 6 Y 7 8 4 X 5 5 4 7 4 Y ecuador mexico Brazil 7 X 6 6 7 5 Y 4 6 Y 5 6 Y united states asia paciFic Canada 8 8 10 5 Y 7 Y 8 7 8 5 Y europe and eurasia Chile 7 6 9 7 X 7 7 5 8 6 Y middle easT and aFrica aBouT sponsors Costa Rica 7 Y 7 8 6 7 6 4 5 6 Y Ecuador 4 3 7 3 X 3 3 4 4 2 Y Mexico 6 6 5 Y 6 X 7 Y 4 4 5 6 Y United States 7 Y 7 Y 9 7 9 8 9 9 7 Y Y For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • conTenTs 8 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview Argentina risk index remain in place over the near term the truck drivers’ union blocked the argentina as the government will be reluctant plants of Argentina’s largest steel Brazil to make any changes that could canada producer, Siderar. Inflation will likely chile slow growth. Officials continue to exacerbate these tensions as unions costa rica ➔ Argentina’s economy underreport inflation, and although will probably demand greater wage ecuador continues to experience a robust the opposition has approved a bill to mexico increases. Moreover, as President recovery. Economic activity increase the transparency of official united states Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner increased 11% year-on-year in statics in the senate, it is unlikely to asia paciFic (or her husband, former president europe June, and most expectations are move forward in the lower house or and eurasia Nestor Kirchner) prepares for the that growth will exceed 7% in 2010. be implemented in the near term. middle easT 2011 presidential election, she and aFrica Favorable external conditions, The government has continued to The battle between the will need labor support, especially aBouT sponsors together with expansionary fiscal spend at increasingly rapid levels, government and the media from Hugo Moyano, leader of the and monetary policies, have financing these expenditures with has been intensifying ever helped drive this recovery. Inflation, country’s main labor association, since the government growing revenues, public savings, however, remains as high as ever, and central bank reserves because and from the powerful truck drivers’ suspended the license because some of the same forces union. She will therefore be more it has not been able to tap of one of the country’s behind the recovery—such as high receptive to union demands, global markets. main internet providers, wage increases and an increasingly especially for wage increases. Fibertel, on 19 August. loose currency controls—also Labor tensions intensified Fibertel is owned by Grupo create inflation. These measures will substantially during August, when ■ ■ ■ Clarin. The government partially blames Clarin low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS for its defeat in last year’s 9 midterm elections and its 8 7 loss of popularity, and it 6 hopes to increase control 5 over the media as a way 4 to strengthen its political 3 2 position ahead of the 2011 1 presidential elections. high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 9 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas overview Canada risk index outlook is far from rosy: CIBC World faces significant headwinds over argentina Markets forecasts growth slowing the next several quarters, among Brazil to 1.6% and 1.5% in the third and them the wind down in government canada chile fourth quarters, respectively. This stimulus spending on infrastructure, costa rica ➔ Canada has enjoyed solid slowdown signals a significant shift which put employment in the sector ecuador economic and employment growth from more favorable projections at risk. That said, the downturn in mexico since the end of the 2008–2009 earlier in the year and elevates Canadian construction has not united states recession, fueled by strengthening asia paciFic political and economic uncertainty been as sharp as that in the US. europe resource sectors and a hot housing going forward. But the export sector is suffering and eurasia market. But economists are from an elevated Canadian dollar middle easT and aFrica forecasting a dramatic slowdown The sharpest reversal is in the By August, Canada had and weak growth in the US, which aBouT sponsors as a result of weak US demand for residential construction sector. New recouped all the jobs lost accounts for 80% of Canada’s Canadian exports, a reversal in the home building rebounded from during the 2008–2009 foreign sales. CIBC forecasts housing market, and restraint in the the recession and grew 1.2% in the recession, but employment exports will drop by 2.5% in the public sector. Canada’s annualized second quarter, but CIBC forecasts growth is expected to stall third quarter and a further 1% in the growth rate slowed to 2% in the 10% and 13.7% drops in residential final quarter of 2010. in the latter half of 2010. second quarter, from 5.8% in the construction in the third and fourth The recovery in jobs masks first quarter. And the near-term quarters. The construction industry ■ ■ ■ underlying problems in the labor market: manufacturing jobs remain at a 34-year low; one-third of people low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS working part-time are 9 doing so involuntarily; and 8 7 hours worked remain well 6 below prerecession levels. 5 The Harper government 4 is unlikely to move toward 3 2 stimulus, however, and will 1 continue instead to focus high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment on deficit reduction. Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 10 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: overview directing policies toward fixed- expected to slow down modestly risk index asset investments in infrastructure this year, it has clearly lifted australia Asia Pacific to sustain growth in the near term; most notable among these are other economies in the region. At the same time, however, china hong kong india India and the Philippines. Asian countries concerned about indonesia their competitiveness in the Japan Solid growth has also reduced the export market—especially given malaysia pressure on Malaysia to adopt China’s slow appreciation of its new Zealand more substantial structural reforms, pakistan currency—are increasingly mindful ➔ Growth prospects remain philippines whereas for Vietnam it remains of their currency values. Japan, for strong for much of the Asia-Pacific singapore fairly urgent to address budgetary instance, intervened in the yen to south korea region, particularly among the imbalances. Some countries with limit appreciation against the US Thailand major economic powers, such smaller economies, such as Hong dollar. Thailand is also keeping a Vietnam as China, Australia, India, and europe Kong and Singapore, are facing close eye on the value of its baht and eurasia Indonesia. But problems associated demands for wage hikes, which are and on Chinese demand. Still, a middle easT with robust growth, especially and aFrica fueled by inflation and, in Hong competitive devaluation like the inflation, are looming. Many aBouT sponsors Kong, potential new legislation. one that occurred in the late 1990s governments across the region remains unlikely at this point, will have to carefully balance One notable trend, in countries particularly if China continues on growth objectives with the need ranging from Australia to South its current trajectory of gradual but to keep inflation in check. Even Korea, has been growth driven sustainable appreciation. as some governments begin by Chinese demand. Even tackling inflation, they are also though China’s economy is ■ ■ ■ 
  • conTenTs 11 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic asia paciFic – risk index summary TaBle – Q4 2010 overview risk index macro risks laBor risks australia Foreign china political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment hong kong india Australia 6 8 10 8 Y 9 7 7 8 7 indonesia China 7 Y 6 7 7 Y 6 4 6 5 5 Japan malaysia Hong Kong 8 7 10 7 9 Y 7 6 8 7 new Zealand pakistan India 6 4 7 6 XX 5 X 5 4 1 4 philippines Indonesia 6 6 7 6 X 5 X 3 5 3 4 singapore south korea Japan 7 9 9 Y 6 7 5 Y 6 8 8 Thailand Vietnam Malaysia 6 4 8 7 6 X 7 4 5 5 europe and eurasia New Zealand 7 8 10 6 Y 9 7 6 7 6 middle easT and aFrica Pakistan 2 Y 2 Y 3 2 4 3 3 1 3 aBouT sponsors Philippines 6 4 7 4 X 4 5 5 4 7 Singapore 8 7 8 8 X 10 6 5 Y 7 7 South Korea 8 Y 9 7 8 7 3 5 7 6 Thailand 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 Y 4 7 Vietnam 7 5 8 4 X 5 6 5 Y 5 X 7 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • conTenTs 12 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Hong Kong overview dampened optimism about the commission decided that the risk index island’s export-focused industries. recently established minimum australia china hourly wage should be 28–29 Hong Seasonally adjusted unemployment hong kong Kong dollars ($3.61–$3.74), a range india ➔ Hong Kong’s economy is dropped to 4.2% in the three that splits the difference between indonesia expected to maintain strong growth months ending in August, a the demands of labor and industry. Japan in the coming months. Robust 20-month low and a dip from malaysia Industry groups have protested expansion in mainland China 4.6% in the March to May period. new Zealand the decision, predicting that the pakistan boosted Hong Kong’s exports Strong domestic consumption has bolstered the labor market, and pay increase could eventually cost philippines by 20.1% year-on-year in the singapore second quarter, which contributed economists expect employment to tens of thousands of jobs and Rising property prices south korea to 6.5% growth in GDP during remain robust. A September poll will create burdensome reporting have prompted regulators Thailand the same period. As a result, the showed that 19% of businesses requirements for small businesses. to consider renewing Vietnam government has raised its economic europe intended to hire more staff in Still, this wage is expected to be subsidized housing schemes. and eurasia growth forecast for 2010 by one the fourth quarter, while 79% approved and should take effect Although that would allay middle easT and aFrica percentage point, from 4%–5% intended to maintain current in early 2011. About 10% of the public discontent over aBouT sponsors to 5%–6%. Despite the positive employment levels. Only 2% territory’s workforce, or more than housing affordability, outlook, a large property bubble is expected to cut workers. 300,000 people, will be affected. it would fall short of an increasing concern, and rising addressing the 47% increase labor costs on the mainland have In late August, a government ■ ■ ■ in home prices since the beginning of 2009. The MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS low risk 10 property sector has played 9 a central role in the recent 8 7 boom, so policymakers are 6 unwilling to counter the 5 two factors contributing 4 to the bubble: the influx 3 2 of mainland investors and 1 low US interest rates. The high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment government has little choice Investment but to tolerate rising prices. very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 13 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Indonesia overview 15-month high that exceeded ability to tap its natural resources. risk index the government’s target rate for australia A critical element of the china 2010 (4%–6%). Nevertheless, government’s strategy will be efforts hong kong the government is expected to to make the investment process india ➔ Indonesia’s stronger-than- boost infrastructure spending indonesia smoother and quicker. Before the expected growth in 2010 will by 28% in 2011, and President Japan end of 2010, policymakers also provide the government more Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wants malaysia plan to push through a significant new Zealand resources to invest in infrastructure public and private investment in bill to reform land acquisition, pakistan and development. Among Jakarta’s infrastructure to reach 1,250 trillion which will allow the government to philippines goals is to raise the country’s rupiahs ($140 billion) over his singapore quickly purchase land it needs it for The government’s long- longer-term growth trajectory and second term. These investments will south korea public sector projects. Historically, term plans to eliminate diversify its economy. Growth in be used to build 14 new airports, Thailand the absence of a clear legislative state subsidies for energy by Vietnam 2010 is expected to exceed 6%, construct a few new railways, and framework or mechanism for such europe and the government is aiming improve approximately 2,600 the end of 2014 will likely and eurasia a process has caused bottlenecks. for 7% annual growth by 2014. kilometers of roads. A strong mean significant rises in middle easT The government is also likely and aFrica But resurgent inflation could infrastructure is essential to the price of electricity for aBouT sponsors to move decision making for hurt domestic consumption, Indonesia’s long-term growth, its companies. Industrial and infrastructure projects to regional which has been the main engine ability to compete with regional commercial users will likely and local governments. propelling the economy. Inflation manufacturing competitors such face disproportionately reached 6.22% in July 2010, a as Thailand and Vietnam, and its ■ ■ ■ higher price increases as the government seeks to limit MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS low risk 10 the impact on residential 9 consumers. Policymakers will 8 7 probably try to raise electricity 6 prices by an average of 15% in 5 2011, and electricity subsidies 4 will be cut by more than 3 2 25% (to about 43.5 trillion 1 rupiahs, or $4.88 billion), high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment although popular opposition Investment could derail this plan. very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 14 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: europe Spain, Ireland, Greece, and Italy. unemployment is falling, both and eurasia overview Reduced government spending and face the threat of rising inflation. Europe and Eurasia higher taxes will constrain demand and economic growth across Policymakers in Russia may soon implement price controls and risk index Baltics Belgium the region overall. All the while, slow the growth of government- czech republic most European countries still face regulated tariffs while increasing denmark social spending to limit a decline France elevated unemployment. Although ➔ The story for EU members germany in consumer purchasing power. In protests and strikes are occurring hungary continues to be about austerity. Turkey, the lira’s exposure to market across the region in response to ireland Governments are drafting 2011 sentiment and the attendant effects public expenditure cuts, these italy budgets this fall with an eye toward on external financing are raising luxembourg are unlikely to significantly derail reining in elevated public deficits concerns for 2011, as the economy netherlands the austerity consensus in the norway and reassuring EU authorities as depends on portfolio investment near term. Delayed government poland well as international investors. and short-term borrowing. But formation and the presence of portugal Spending will be cut across Turkish authorities are not expected romania far-right parties in Belgium, the ministries; taxes will be raised or to undertake any major policy russia Netherlands, and Sweden present exemptions will be cut for both initiatives before the 2011 general serbia uncertainty for policy trends election. spain households and businesses. through 2011. sweden Domestic demand will suffer and ■ ■ ■ switzerland may be particularly constrained in In contrast to many countries in Turkey ukraine countries where measures have the region, Russia and Turkey united kingdom been the most severe: Portugal, continue to post growth. While middle easT and aFrica aBouT sponsors 
  • conTenTs 15 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology europe and eurasia – risk index summary TaBle – Q4 2010 The americas asia paciFic macro risks laBor risks europe Foreign and eurasia political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment overview risk index Baltics 6 6 7 4 Y 8 4 6 6 3 Baltics Belgium 5 6 8 6 Y 7 5 6 7 4 Belgium czech republic Czech Republic 7 8 8 7 X 6 7 6 7 4 Y denmark Denmark 7 9 8 7 Y 9 6 5 8 4 France germany France 7 Y 8 7 6 9 4 6 8 3 hungary Germany 6 Y 9 8 6 8 2 6 9 5 ireland italy Hungary 6 7 Y 9 6 X 8 6 6 X 6 4 luxembourg Ireland 6 Y 8 8 5 Y 9 6 7 8 3 netherlands Italy 5 Y 7 7 5 Y 6 4 6 8 4 norway poland Luxembourg 7 9 8 6 9 4 5 9 6 Y portugal Netherlands 5 Y 8 Y 8 6 7 3 5 7 5 romania russia Norway 7 9 8 7 8 3 5 X 8 7 serbia Poland 8 X 7 X 9 5 7 Y 5 6 7 6 spain sweden Portugal 6 Y 8 7 5 7 3 6 6 3 Y switzerland Romania 5 Y 5 6 3 7 4 5 6 3 Y Turkey ukraine Russia 7 Y 6 5 5 X 6 6 7 5 5 united kingdom Serbia 6 Y 5 7 4 X 6 5 5 5 1 Y middle easT and aFrica Spain 5 Y 6 7 4 7 3 X 7 8 2 aBouT sponsors Sweden 6 Y 8 8 6 8 4 6 8 6 Switzerland 7 8 9 7 Y 8 X 6 5 8 8 Turkey 7 X 5 6 6 X 6 Y 5 5 4 4 Ukraine 6 Y 5 7 4 5 X 5 6 4 X 5 8 Y For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 7 is ‘low risk’. United Kingdom 8 10 5 9 8 6 X 8 5 Y very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • conTenTs 16 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Belgium europe and francophone parties disagree still be persuaded to put individual and eurasia overview over a variety of issues—a familiar interests on the backburner to risk index situation that has caused coalition form a coalition government and Baltics negotiations to collapse in the past. enact an austere financial plan. That Belgium ➔ The Belgian economy has This time, however, the impasse would calm markets and prevent czech republic been gradually recovering—the denmark occurs as the European Commission a significant deterioration of the France IMF projects 1.15% GDP growth in (EC) has mandated that Belgium business environment. germany 2010—but political instability, high bring its public deficit below 3% hungary public debt, and a fragile financial Constrained economic growth ireland of GDP by 2012. The deficit stood system threaten growth in the near poses uncertainty for business italy at 5.8% of GDP in 2009, and it and medium term. activity and employment figures. Elevated inflation (2.5% in luxembourg is expected to improve only to The IMF projects a rise in the 2010 July and 2.3% in August) netherlands The nationalist center-right New 5.1% in 2010. To meet the EC’s norway unemployment rate to 9.3% from triggered automatic wage requirement, the government must poland Flemish Alliance (N-VA) won a indexation this summer. 8% in 2009. An austere 2011 budget portugal majority in parliament this summer raise more money in the markets would likely include tax hikes and Unemployment benefits romania but has yet to form a government. than it had previously planned, reduced government expenditures, and other social security russia A caretaker government is in place but that will be difficult without a serbia which would limit domestic demand. contributions, as well as spain but with limited authority over credible fiscal consolidation strategy. public and private sector sweden policy. The problem is that Flemish The jostling political parties may ■ ■ ■ salaries, will consequently switzerland Turkey rise this quarter. While ukraine these measures may offer united kingdom MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS low risk 10 some near-term relief to middle easT and aFrica 9 households, their costs 8 aBouT sponsors 7 to the government could 6 bring more tax hikes or 5 other constraints in the 4 2011 budget. Elevated wage 3 2 costs pose an additional 1 burden to businesses, so high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment labor policy trends should Investment be closely monitored. very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 17 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Norway europe rate to 2%. Tighter monetary Fiscal policy will stimulate the and eurasia economy by a projected 0.8% of overview policy contributed to an 8.5% risk index appreciation of the krone against GDP this year. However, on Baltics the euro over the past year, hurting 5 October, the government Belgium ➔ Norway’s economy exporters. The central bank had released its 2011 budget, which czech republic continues to grow slowly, but faster planned to raise its benchmark rate will phase out stimulus next year denmark growth is forecast for next year. to 2.5% by the end of the second while maintaining current tax levels. France Factors helping recovery include an germany GDP is projected to increase by quarter in 2011, but because of hungary expected increase in oil investment 1.7% in 2010 and by as much as appreciation the government has ireland in 2011 and relatively strong 3.1% in 2011. Norway’s oil fund asked the central bank to postpone italy domestic demand, as retail sales Norway’s unemployment luxembourg gives the government a fiscal further tightening. Norges Bank went up in July. Consumer spending surplus. Unemployment is low, at will also continue selling krone rate remains enviable. netherlands is projected to increase 3.3% norway about 3.3%, although inflation is to prevent appreciation against And despite subdued this year and 4% annually in the poland relatively high and should reach the euro. Central bank governor growth, labor markets portugal coming years. On the other hand, 2.5% by year’s end. Svein Gjedrem will retire in are improving, with the romania weak external demand for both December, and his likely successor, manufactured goods and oil may number of registered russia serbia The central bank has raised interest Oeystein Olsen, favors holding the slow recovery. unemployed falling 5,000 spain rates three times since October benchmark rate steady until the end (seasonally adjusted) in sweden 2009, bringing the benchmark of 2011. ■ ■ ■ the second quarter. Still, switzerland Turkey though forecasters predict ukraine a rise in productivity over united kingdom low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS the coming months, firms middle easT and aFrica 9 may demand more from 8 aBouT sponsors 7 their current employees 6 rather than hire new ones. 5 This trend, combined 4 with expected labor 3 2 force growth, factor into 1 official projections that high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment unemployment will rise Investment to 3.8% by 2012 but very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter decrease thereafter. negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 18 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: europe Dubai picks up the pieces from tax incentives to foreign firms and eurasia middle easT the Dubai World crisis, Abu Dhabi and investing in human capital; Middle East and aFrica is solidifying its role as the United Algeria is strengthening nationalist overview Arab Emirates’ power broker. In economic policies and favoring risk index and Africa Egypt, all eyes are on November 2010 parliamentary elections as the domestic firms. South of the algeria egypt Sahara, Ghana’s outlook is uncertain ghana country prepares to address the as it seeks to manage inflationary israel ➔ As 2011 approaches, question of presidential succession kuwait pressure. In South Africa, the governments in the Middle East in 2011. Israel continues to enjoy morocco labor market will remain an growth and low unemployment, Qatar and Africa are taking stock of their important political risk, as chronic saudi arabia economies as they come out of albeit in the shadow of faltering unemployment and labor strikes south africa the financial crisis and prepare to peace talks with the Palestinians united arab present the government with tough address a variety of challenges. and a standoff with Iran over its emirates policy choices. Governments in aBouT sponsors nuclear program. Growth and diversification have both countries will have to balance become priorities across the In North Africa, Algeria and labor demands with fiscal concerns, Gulf Cooperation Council, with Morocco are taking very different and how they do so will determine governments taking advantage approaches to the challenges of the severity of labor unrest and its of stable oil markets and budget encouraging growth and reducing economic impact. surpluses to maintain high spending unemployment. Morocco is on long-term development. As looking to attract FDI by offering ■ ■ ■ 
  • conTenTs 19 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic europe middle easT and aFrica – risk index summary TaBle – Q4 2010 and eurasia middle easT and aFrica macro risks laBor risks overview Foreign risk index political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment algeria egypt Algeria 3 Y 5 Y 4 4 3 Y 2 5 3 1 ghana israel Egypt 6 Y 5 Y 8 5 5 4 4 2 2 kuwait morocco Ghana 7 3 Y 8 5 XX 4 3 5 4 3 Y Qatar saudi arabia Israel 7 6 Y 7 7 X 8 5 6 X 7 7 south africa united arab Kuwait 6 6 7 7 5 X 8 4 7 8 emirates aBouT sponsors Morocco 6 5 7 5 X 5 3 4 2 4 Qatar 7 6 7 7 X 5 7 5 6 6 Saudi Arabia 6 Y 6 5 6 5 7 4 5 5 South Africa 6 Y 3 6 6 X 7 4 7 4 1 X United Arab Emirates 7 6 7 Y 6 X 5 7 5 6 6 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. very positive trend positive trend negative trend very negative trend 
  • conTenTs 20 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Egypt europe the Egyptian public, which has expected surrounding Egypt’s early and eurasia middle easT not felt the trickle-down benefit November parliamentary elections, and aFrica of economic reform that the but a widespread boycott by the overview government had predicted and opposition could present a more risk index algeria ➔ Egyptian authorities promised, is skeptical. And while serious problem for authorities. The egypt continue to believe that the it is unlikely that the authorities elections will reinstate a majority in ghana economic picture is improving, and will do anything overtly hostile parliament for the ruling National israel they expect growth to reach about to foreign investors, they may Democratic Party, but if there is a kuwait 6% of GDP in the current fiscal undertake small, short-term steps boycott, the opposition will claim morocco Qatar year. But this growth rate will not to quell the population’s anger. The that parliament is illegitimate. That saudi arabia be able to address the persistently number of labor strikes and protests could pose problems for the regime Observers have recently south africa high unemployment rate, which has been on the rise in Egypt. With leading up to the 2011 presidential speculated that there is united arab authorities claim hovers below parliamentary elections scheduled election. One key factor, of course, competition between the emirates aBouT sponsors 10% but is probably much higher. in a few weeks and presidential is President Hosni Mubarak: If he president’s son Gamal Economists expect inflation to elections scheduled for fall 2011, does not run, or if he dies, the Mubarak and Omar reach about 12% in 2010. market-friendly reforms will transition to the new administration Suleiman, the president’s probably be put on hold, but they could be messy and might disrupt close adviser and security Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif and will not be reversed. the business environment. chief, over succession. But his cabinet remain committed to this reading of the situation a market-based economy, but A certain level of violence may be ■ ■ ■ is inaccurate. The two men have aligned interests, and MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS low risk 10 in the event of President 9 Mubarak’s death, businesses 8 7 can expect his son and 6 Suleiman to work together. 5 Even if there were an elite- 4 level conflict, the military- 3 2 backed faction, which would 1 support Suleiman or someone high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment with a similar profile, Investment would win easily, making very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter destabilization unlikely. negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • conTenTs 21 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Kuwait europe the government and parliament the Kuwaiti parliament passed and eurasia middle easT meant that only 93% of the important economic stimulus and aFrica budget was spent. Spending could measures for the real estate market overview begin to rise toward the end of and other non-oil sectors and risk index ➔ As one of the largest oil algeria the year, however, as large-scale approved a multiyear development egypt producers in the world, Kuwait infrastructure projects—part of plan that will fund the construction ghana remains financially secure. Kuwait a multiyear development plan— of a new city, seaport, and railroad. israel recorded a budget surplus of begin. Inflation remains a concern A years-long legacy of dysfunctional kuwait more than 4.5 billion dinars ($16 in Kuwait, as in the entire oil-rich politics has kept foreign investors morocco Qatar billion) for the fiscal year ending 31 region, but at the moment it is away, however. Kuwait’s FDI is saudi arabia March, the eleventh consecutive controlled, at 4%. among the lowest in the region; Kuwaiti planners are south africa year that the emirate has posted the country attracted less than beginning to recognize united arab a surplus. The surplus comes even Politically, Kuwait has become $200 million in 2009.But as its Iraq, which they have long emirates aBouT sponsors though oil revenue was down somewhat more stable, as the political system becomes more viewed only as a security 16% from last year, due to lower parliament and government have functional and efforts are made to threat and an enemy, as prices. Expenditures fell as well, avoided the brinkmanship that has lower taxes on foreign companies, an economic opportunity. in part because of accounting characterized its politics in recent FDI could grow. Iraq lacks significant port differences, but also because years. While policymaking will capacity, but it needs to chronic disagreements between continue to be uneven, in 2010 ■ ■ ■ import massive quantities of equipment for its oil industry. Kuwait is expected low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS to build a massive new port 9 in the north that could 8 7 supply an overland route 6 into southern Iraq, where 5 massive oil development 4 by international 3 2 companies is set to begin 1 next year or sooner. high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment very positive trend current quarter positive trend prior quarter negative trend current quarter very negative trend prior quarter 
  • 22 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index Q4 2010 About this Report The Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index is jointly developed by KellyOCG, the Outsourcing and Consulting Group of human resources provider, Kelly Services and Eurasia Group, the global political risk consultancy. The report, a proprietary blend leveraging Kelly’s labor market knowledge with Eurasia Group’s expertise in political and socio-economic risk analysis, delivers a groundbreaking resource for companies as they assess market investments and global labor strategies. Published on a quarterly basis, the Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index is segmented by four geographies: the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, and the Middle East and Africa, with detailed insights for 55 of the world’s most important economies. About Eurasia Group Eurasia Group is the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Since 1998, it has helped clients make informed business decisions in countries where understanding the political landscape is critical. The firm’s research analysts are trained social scientists with post-graduate degrees, extensive professional experience, and a diverse range of language capabilities. Headquartered in New York, it also has offices in Washington and London, as well as a network of experts around the world. For more information, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net. About KellyOCG KellyOCG is the Outsourcing and Consulting Group of Fortune 500 human resources solutions provider, Kelly Services, Inc. KellyOCG is a global leader in innovative talent management solutions in the areas of Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO), Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Contingent Workforce Outsourcing (CWO), including Independent Contractor Solutions, Human Resources Consulting, Career Transition and Organizational Effectiveness, and Executive Search. Visit www.kellyocg.com. To Receive this Report This report is available on an annual subscription basis. To access a complimentary report abstract, and for full subscription details, visit www.kellyocg.com/marketbrief More Information To find out more about how the KellyOCG / Eurasia Group partnership can add insight to your global planning, please contact marketbrief@kellyservices.com 
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