Climate Resilient Communities Forest and Water Strategies Clint Trammel Forest Manager Nancy Gilliam Executive Director Bud Watson Research Director Module 1 River Rally • May 18-22, 2007

Warning! “ The invoice for the future impact costs of climate change has been put on the table today (April 6, 2007) by the (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is not a bill that we would have to pay in full if the world decides now to make deep and decisive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.” – Achim Steiner Executive Director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP)

“ The invoice for the future impact costs of climate change has been put on the table today (April 6, 2007) by the (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is not a bill that we would have to pay in full if the world decides now to make deep and decisive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.”

– Achim Steiner

Executive Director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP)

The Role of Local Governments Local governments are leading the way in climate change solutions for themselves and for the world Five take home messages 1

Local governments are leading the way in climate change solutions for themselves and for the world

Urgency of Our Problem With a 10-year window to reduce our CO2 levels… Five take home messages Action to preserve the remaining areas of Natural Forests is urgent * * Stern Review, p.537 2

With a 10-year window to reduce our CO2 levels…

Role of Forests to Climate and Water Curbing deforestation is a highly cost effective way of reducing greenhouse gases and protecting precious water resources * Five take home messages * Stern Review, p.537 3

Curbing deforestation is a highly cost effective way of reducing greenhouse gases and protecting precious water resources *

Solutions Land use planning has a key role to play Five take home messages * Stern Review, p.541 4

Land use planning has a key role to play

Solutions Sustainable policies have positive economic benefits Five take home messages * Stern Review, p.541 5

Sustainable policies have positive economic benefits

Five Take Home Messages Local government taking the lead 10-year window Curbing deforestation Land use planning Positive economic benefits

Local government taking the lead

10-year window

Curbing deforestation

Land use planning

Positive economic benefits

Climate Change Predictions Module 2

Climate Predictions Greenhouse effect

Of the five greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide is the most prevalent As CO 2 levels are going up, temperatures are going up…. direct correlation Future scenarios run from 520-960 ppm by 2100

Causes of Increased CO 2 Utility emissions, industrial emissions, building emissions, vehicle emissions, and deforestation

Quality of Life Threatened RESULTS Increased temperature 2° to 11° depending on the model

Quality of Life Threatened More hotter days… RESULTS Mean temp (F) anomaly 30-day mean ending 1/5/07 … higher minimum temps Fewer cold days… … more frost-free days

Quality of Life Threatened RESULTS * IPCC April 2007 More intense weather patterns Rise in sea levels threatening coastal cities and wetlands due to polar melting Between 15% and close to 40% of plant and animal species will be “committed to extinction” by 2050 * Mega wildfires

Water Impacts…Too Much, Too Little, Not Safe Too much water More intense hurricanes, flooding Safe drinking water limited Septic systems overflow Storm water systems overloaded Locally insufficient infrastructure Increased infrastructure costs RESULTS Photo credit: Bruce Molnia, U.S. Geological Survey

Too much water

More intense hurricanes, flooding

Safe drinking water limited

Septic systems overflow

Storm water systems overloaded

Locally insufficient infrastructure

Increased infrastructure costs

Water Impacts…Too Little Water, Drought NPR April 16 th , 2007: U.S. Army study reports water shortages caused by climate change will threaten national as well as global security IPCC April 2007: Canada and the United States facing costly water shortages and loss of biodiversity unless adaptation mainstreamed into economic life IPCC April 2007: …increase[ing] competition between industry, cities, hydropower operators, farmers and fishermen for freshwater supplies Aquifer declines: Ground-water flows from the Edwards Aquifer in Texas for example could drop by up to 40% leading to economic losses for farmers * RESULTS * IPCC April 2007

NPR April 16 th , 2007: U.S. Army study reports water shortages caused by climate change will threaten national as well as global security

IPCC April 2007: Canada and the United States facing costly water shortages and loss of biodiversity unless adaptation mainstreamed into economic life

IPCC April 2007: …increase[ing] competition between industry, cities, hydropower operators, farmers and fishermen for freshwater supplies

Aquifer declines: Ground-water flows from the Edwards Aquifer in Texas for example could drop by up to 40% leading to economic losses for farmers *

Regional Predictions: Northwest U.S. Decreased source water: Warming temperatures cause snow levels to drop, earlier Spring run-off and flooding/melting glaciers…by Summer, drought. IPCC April 2007: Summer flows in some river systems such as the Colorado and Columbia basin are likely to decline sharply within four decades. RESULTS

Decreased source water: Warming temperatures cause snow levels to drop, earlier Spring run-off and flooding/melting glaciers…by Summer, drought.

IPCC April 2007: Summer flows in some river systems such as the Colorado and Columbia basin are likely to decline sharply within four decades.

Mega Wildfires RESULTS

Forests, Carbon, and Water Essential Relationships Module 3

Understanding How Forests Play a Vital Role in Maintaining Livable Climate Conditions Carbon… the essential element of life

The Carbon Cycle

How Is Carbon Stored? During photosynthesis, plants remove carbon from the atmosphere, converts it into sugars and oxygen is released

During photosynthesis, plants remove carbon from the atmosphere, converts it into sugars and oxygen is released

What Happens When Plants Die, Burn, or Decompose? Also, when the soils are disturbed thru logging, or conversion to other uses, more CO 2 is released Carbon as CO 2 is released back to the atmosphere

Carbon Build Up Making land use/deforestation a significant factor in the build up of CO 2 levels and significant in the current solutions ** * IPCC, 2001 ** Houghton, 2003, Salwasser, 2006 A petagram (Pg) is 1.1 billion tons of carbon From 1850-2000, land use changes caused the release of 156 Pg of CO 2 , 90% from deforestation * Deforestation That amount is about one-half of the CO 2 levels that burning fossil fuels/cement making has caused (275 Pg CO 2 ) Other

Making land use/deforestation a significant factor in the build up of CO 2 levels and significant in the current solutions **

From 1850-2000, land use changes caused the release of 156 Pg of CO 2 , 90% from deforestation *

That amount is about one-half of the CO 2 levels that burning fossil fuels/cement making has caused (275 Pg CO 2 )

Or Saying It Another Way… Mismanagement of forests, particularly the burning of tropical forests, is 25% of the current CO 2 levels

Mismanagement of forests, particularly the burning of tropical forests, is 25% of the current CO 2 levels

Therefore, Forests Are an Essential Part of the CO 2 Mitigation Solution 6.6 Billion tons of CO 2 are released each year from burning fossil fuels 1.65 Billion tons of CO 2 would be offset in forests if we reduced our deforestation by 50%

6.6 Billion tons of CO 2 are released each year from burning fossil fuels

1.65 Billion tons of CO 2 would be offset in forests if we reduced our deforestation by 50%

Forests and Water Explained

The Fresh Water Source…Forests * Source: Carr Forested watersheds provide drinking water for 180 million people * Source Brown Mean annual water supply originating on Federal, State and private land, by land cover class About two-thirds of U.S. fresh water originates on forested lands

Water Quantity Forests capture and store 50% of our water, recharge ground water/aquifers, and slowly release it back to maintain stream flow between storms Thus, reducing severity of droughts And, providing a reliable flow for hydro power, agriculture, wildlife, and recreation

Forests capture and store 50% of our water, recharge ground water/aquifers, and slowly release it back to maintain stream flow between storms

Thus, reducing severity of droughts

And, providing a reliable flow for hydro power, agriculture, wildlife, and recreation

Water Quality Forests control the flow of water Forests reduce the amount of water storm water systems must contain, reducing taxpayer costs for new systems Forested riparian zones filter pollutants/ reduce sediment and nutrient loads * Source: Carr In arid and semi-arid regions such as much of the Western United States, wetlands and riparian areas play an especially critical role *

Forests control the flow of water

Forests reduce the amount of water storm water systems must contain, reducing taxpayer costs for new systems

Forested riparian zones filter pollutants/ reduce sediment and nutrient loads

Water Quality

Transpiration Source: OR Forest Resources Institute, 2006 Photo: Mark Meyer The massive amounts of water transpired by forests ultimately change the global distribution of energy in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall patterns, cloudiness, and storms

Other Benefits of Forests 1. Shade & cooling (for urban, aquatics, soils) 2. Habitat for fish, wildlife, birds, & domestic animals 3. Aesthetic values 4. Commercial harvests 5. Recreation & hunting opportunities

1. Shade & cooling (for urban, aquatics, soils)

2. Habitat for fish, wildlife, birds, & domestic animals

3. Aesthetic values

4. Commercial harvests

5. Recreation & hunting opportunities

Further Threats to Forests Module 4

Forest Management Policies Only 10 States in the U.S. have comprehensive forest practice laws Voluntary Best Management Practices are often not sufficient water protection Only a handful of forest landowners—a mere 7% of those owning parcels between 10 and 5,000 acres in the lower 48—currently have a written management plan. Fewer than half of private forest landowners seek professional assistance

Only 10 States in the U.S. have comprehensive forest practice laws

Voluntary Best Management Practices are often not sufficient water protection

Only a handful of forest landowners—a mere 7% of those owning parcels between 10 and 5,000 acres in the lower 48—currently have a written management plan. Fewer than half of private forest landowners seek professional assistance

Development Acres of non-Federal forest land converted to developed land Source: NRCS, 2000

Recent U.S. Forest Service estimates are that some 15-20 Million acres of U.S. forest land could be converted to urban and developed uses by 2050

In the U.S., for example, roughly 1.5 Million acres of forests are currently lost to development and conversion each year. Figured conservatively, this forest loss results in the release of 275 million metric tons of CO 2 into the atmosphere— a release equivalent to the emissions output by 53 million vehicles over a one-year period. – Pacific Forest Trust, 2007

New Attitude Urbanization can also have social implications with respect to water protection and conservation. People moving into newly urbanized areas often bring different attitudes and a lack of experience with natural resources and rural social values.

Urbanization can also have social implications with respect to water protection and conservation.

People moving into newly urbanized areas often bring different attitudes and a lack of experience with natural resources and rural social values.

Epidemic Insect Infestation With Rising Temperatures Warmer temperatures allow insect populations to increase. Drought stricken trees are easy targets. * Source: IPCC 2007 North American producers of wood and timber could suffer losses of between $1 Billion and $2 Billion a year during the 21 st century if climate change also sparks changes in diseases, insect attacks…and fires*

More Frequent, More Severe, and Larger Fires

Solutions for Resilient Communities Module 5

Solutions for Resilient Communities Source: R. Scocolow, R. Hotinski, J.B. Greenblatt, and S. Pacala Stabilization wedges Note: The stabilization triangle can be divided into seven equal “wedges” that represent activities capable of reducing one billion tons of carbon per year by 2054. Year 2004 2054 Billions of tons of carbon emitted per year 14 7

Climate Change Solutions In the U.S., according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, “ forests and land-use measures have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by the equivalent of 10-20% of projected fossil fuel emissions through 2050.” Forests

In the U.S., according to the

Union of Concerned Scientists,

“ forests and land-use measures have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by the equivalent of 10-20% of projected fossil fuel emissions through 2050.”

Stern Review Prevent deforestation Source: Reproduced from Baumert et al (2005) Use change within the range equivalent to 2.2 to 9.9 GtCO 2 , with a central estimate of 6.2 GtCO 2 . A fuller discussion setting out the range of estimates can be found in Baumert KA et al. (2005). CAIT, WRI, 2000 figures used. Sources of emissions from global land use change 2000

Climate Action Plan Commit to Climate Action Plan Form Land Use Subcommittee Assess forest ownership patterns, forest condition, current policies Analyze the root causes/systems influencing your forest/water problems Pinpoint strategies; include adaptation and mitigation strategies Implement and evaluate Forests

Commit to Climate Action Plan

Form Land Use Subcommittee

Assess forest ownership patterns, forest condition, current policies

Analyze the root causes/systems influencing your forest/water problems

Pinpoint strategies; include adaptation and mitigation strategies

Implement and evaluate

Pew Center on Global Climate Change POLICY Increase Stock Conservation of Stock Reforestation Low impact harvesting Extend rotation from 30-70 years Prevent deforestation/ land use change Afforestation Thin for fire suppression

Low Impact Harvesting Riparian buffers Pre-notification of logging Timber harvest plans Road construction standards Cumulative impacts data Licensing of foresters State Laws: Model Forest Policy Tool Kit POLICY

Riparian buffers

Pre-notification of logging

Timber harvest plans

Road construction standards

Cumulative impacts data

Licensing of foresters

Preventing Deforestation Caused by Developments County: York County, Virginia State: Maryland’s Forest Conservation Act POLICY

County: York County, Virginia

State: Maryland’s Forest Conservation Act

Maryland Forest Conservation Act 100-year floodplains Intermittent and perennial streams and their buffers Steep slopes: Greater than 25% grade Critical habitats for endangered species Non-tidal wetlands Contiguous forest that connects the largest undeveloped forests adjacent to the site

100-year floodplains

Intermittent and perennial streams and their buffers

Steep slopes: Greater than 25% grade

Critical habitats for endangered species

Non-tidal wetlands

Contiguous forest that connects the largest undeveloped forests adjacent to the site

Carbon Sequestration Strategies Carbon Registry Carbon Credits Example California Climate Action Registry (SB812); Georgia new plan underway New Mexico, Boulder Van Eck Forest Foundation POLICY

Carbon Registry

Carbon Credits

Example

California Climate Action Registry (SB812); Georgia new plan underway

New Mexico, Boulder

Van Eck Forest Foundation

Rising Prices for Carbon Credit M. Smith CCX annual net revenue per forest acre Future values use $4.35 per MtCO 2 e

Carbon Credit Example: van Eck Forest Conservation easement preventing conversion Sustainable practices Income from carbon credits POLICY California’s first climate-protecting forest project to prevent 500,000 tons of C0 2 emissions (July 2006)

Conservation easement preventing conversion

Sustainable practices

Income from carbon credits

Educational Tools STRATEGIES Tools for landowners Landowner’s Guide to Sustainable Forestry: Maximizing Profits While Protecting Water Quality (DVD) Landowner’s Handbook: Managing Your Woodlands

Educational Tools Guide to evaluating your existing local forest watershed policy Case studies of well managed forested watersheds Model contracts for selling your timber STRATEGIES

Guide to evaluating your existing local forest watershed policy

Case studies of well managed forested watersheds

Model contracts for selling your timber

Case Study Photos courtesy of Richard Weisser and SmokyPhotos.com EDUCATION The State of Chesapeake Forests by USFS and The Conservation Fund

Source: The State of Chesapeake Forests , Ch. 7, pg 89. Vulnerability of forests important to water quality to the Chesapeake Bay 31%

Summary Climate change is Real Local communities are In Action Forests are Essential to water and to climate Solutions exist INSPIRING THE WILL!

Climate change is Real

Local communities are In Action

Forests are Essential to water and to climate

Solutions exist

INSPIRING THE WILL!

Thank you The Model Forest Policy Program www.mfpp.org (509) 432-8679 Created by: