Mike wood's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

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Mike wood's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

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Mike wood's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

  1. 1. Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Overview of Caspian / Central Asian Region Gas Supplies Mike Wood Gaffney, Cline & Associates
  2. 2. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Agenda Somewhat Turkmen-focussed but Regional context A look at some significant recent events What are the opportunities for the future? Alternative regional options / additions to Turkmen gas 2
  3. 3. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 19623 Caspian Known Resources – 2007 BP Statistics BillionCubicmetres
  4. 4. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 19624 Caspian Known Resources – 2008 BP Stats S. Yolotan (mid-case) and Shakh Deniz Ph 2 BillionCubicmetres
  5. 5. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Top Reservoir Full-Field depth map Minara S. Yolotan as Mapped in 2008 x x x x x x x
  6. 6. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Turkmenistan and the Recent Major Discoveries
  7. 7. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Current & Planned Gas Export lines 7 Central Asia Gas Pipeline CAGP 30 BCM (+10?) Korpej-Iran 9 BCM, Central Asia Europe Pipelines CAE 50-70 BCM Proposed Pricaspiysky Gas Pipeline 10 + 10 BCM Dovletabad- Sarakhs-Khangiran Proposed East West Pipeline 10 – 30 Bcm
  8. 8. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Turkmen Production & Export – 2007/8 Production Capacity: ~70 Bcm/yr Gas supply –Russia: 45 Bcm/yr –Iran: 7 Bcm/yr –Domestic: 15 Bcm/yr Total: 68 Bcm/yr 8
  9. 9. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Turkmen Gas Production & Export In 2009, export levels dropped significantly due to the termination of supplies to Russia. Export are understood to have resumed, but at much lower levels. Production capability is unchanged. Supplies to China have commenced – from developments in the Amu Darya. Production from South Yolotan is expected to commence in 2014, at 30 Bcm per year, increasing at 10 Bcm per year to 2018. 9
  10. 10. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Turkmenistan Gas Export Potential 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bcm Year China Iran Russia Domestic Production Capacity
  11. 11. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 What enabled the ‘China’ project? A Packaged arrangement: It recognised all stakeholders (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan) - each has a 30 BCM/yr export contract Included subsurface responsibility and facilities Development – Sales volumes part sourced from its Amu Darya PSA – part from Turkmengas’s own resources (inc. S. Yolotan) A pipeline brought to the door All necessary funding 11
  12. 12. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline 12
  13. 13. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 196213 What would be required for European supply? Development of 10-30 BCM/yr capacity on South Yolotan - will take several years Political agreement on a trans-Caspian route (involving all parties). Additional work on the Turkmen domestic pipeline infrastructure – but East-West Line is approved by the President. A unified approach by the potential buyers including a means of funding.
  14. 14. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 What are the Alternatives - Iraq Recent Service Contract agreements in Iraq target 10 MMbbl / day within 7 years. The associated gas is the property of the state. After allowances for gas injection, 60 Bcm/yr of associated gas production is possible - excluding any non-associated gas production – target of the 3rd Iraq License Round. Current serious energy deficiencies - domestic power generation is generally oil-fired – so consumption is likely to grow considerably as gas becomes available. 14
  15. 15. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 196215 Iraq Energy Statistics Gas consumption in 2007 was 1.4 Bcm - consumed by industry. Electricity consumption in 2007 was 32 GWh Oil is the prime fuel used for power generation. If associated gas were to be used, it would consume 10 Bcm/yr. (at current levels) According to the EIA there was 8.9 gigawatts of installed power capacity in 2006 - equivalent to 26 Bcm/yr of gas. (assumed to grow to 30 Bcm)
  16. 16. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Potential Gas Exports 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 BCM Year Gas Production Internal Consumption Potential Gas Exports 30 Bcm/yr ??
  17. 17. © Gaffney, Cline & Associates Gaffney, Cline & Associates Technical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962 Regional Gas Supply Potential ?? 17 20Bcm 20Bcm 20 Bcm 20 Bcm

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