Fatih birol's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

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Fatih birol's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

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Fatih birol's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Seven Remarks on Global Oil  Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Drivers of  global oil demandDrivers of  global oil demand OECD oil demand peaked Since 2004, all the growth in oil demand came from transportation  sector Since 2004, China (2.1 mb/d) & Middle East (1.3 mb/d) were key  drivers of global oil demand growth, while OECD demand fell by   4.5 mb/d Economy is by far the most important driver 
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA - 2010 What could affect the global oil  demand outlook?What could affect the global oil  demand outlook? Pace and strength of economic recovery  A hike in prices?  Subsidy phase out in key consuming countries Greater fuel economy – advanced car technologies
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Decline rates are of critical importance toDecline rates are of critical importance to future upstream oil investment needsfuture upstream oil investment needs Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of capacity – roughly four times  the capacity of Saudi Arabia – would ne needed just to offset decline from existing fields.  World oil production NGLs Unconventional oil Crude oil – fields yet to be developed or found (including new EOR) Crude oil – currently producing fields 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2008 2030 mb/d
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA - 2010 A sea change: world oil productionA sea change: world oil production 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2015 2030 mb/d NOCs Private companies Almost 80% of the projected increase in output of oil comes from national companies – with significant implications on oil markets
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Worldwide upstream oil & gas Worldwide upstream oil & gas  investment is to rebound slightlyinvestment is to rebound slightly Global upstream spending fell in 2009, for the first time in a decade, by over $90 billion  in 2009, but is set to bounce back by around 10% in 2010 on current plans * Planned spending (preliminary estimate) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Billiondollars 19% c.10%
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA - 2010 What future for Iraqi oil?What future for Iraqi oil? Iraq: a decisive driver of global oil markets in the coming decade? Iraqi oilfields are mostly technically straightforward and relatively  cheap to develop The very rapid expansion claimed by politicians is overly optimistic  but even e.g. a doubling of current production would have  significant  impact on oil markets For most IOCs large‐scale investment opportunities elsewhere are  very limited Main challenges: security, infrastructure, water and personnel  
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Macondo oil spill and beyondMacondo oil spill and beyond…… Huge uncertainties about the real impact on oil industry New regulations ‐ cost implications – delays? Over ¾ of non‐OPEC supply additions expected to come from off‐ shore Accelerating the dominance on (on‐shore) NOCs?  

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