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Separating Myths from Truth - The True Story of Investing

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The following presentation dispells the myth behind stock picking, market timing and track record investing. It also shows the millions that has been lost by investors who have believed the myth.

The following presentation dispells the myth behind stock picking, market timing and track record investing. It also shows the millions that has been lost by investors who have believed the myth.

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  • The Purpose for Leading this Presentation is to explain the common misconceptions about investing and introduce Free Market Portfolio Theory. At this point I’d like to spend about 45 minutes showing you the key concepts that have led to my conclusion about this new investment solution. First, we have to discuss the myths that are so frequently taught to the average, unsuspecting investor and then I’ll contrast that with the truth about successful investing.
  • Transcript

    • 1. SEPARATING MYTHS FROM TRUTH The Story of Investing
    • 2.
      • Dispelling the Traditional Investing Myths
      • Telling the True Story of Investing
      • Opportunity to Achieve True Peace of Mind
      SEPARATING MYTHS FROM TRUTH
    • 3. DISPELLING THE MYTHS Myth : A story made up to explain a phenomenon beyond the science of the day.
    • 4. TRADITIONAL INVESTING MYTHS MYTH 1: Stock Selection MYTH 2: Track-Record Investing MYTH 3: Market Timing MYTH 4: Costs of Investing
    • 5. MYTH 1: STOCK SELECTION THE MYTH: Investment advisors can consistently and predictably add value by exercising “superior skill” in individual Stock selection. Stock Selection : Choosing stocks based on a belief they will do well in the future.
    • 6. Average of all US Equity funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 S&P 500 Index and CRSP Market Index data obtained from DFA Returns software 12/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. Wealth Lost to Active Stock Picking $1,388,024 $3,824,323 $2,436,299
    • 7. Average of all mutual funds available in the CRSP Survivor- Bias Free US Mutual Fund Database, data ending Dec. 2007 Hypothetical Portfolios based on data in endnote 8. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investors may experience a loss. 8 $6,358,777 $3,813,099 $1,242,204 $2,168,746 $9,134,358
    • 8. Total Number of Funds Open 2007 20,316 Total Number Born 32,076 Total Number Killed 11,760 Survivorship Bias For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS. 1218 1258 20,316 2007 974 2062 20,276 2006 1067 1847 19,188 2005 851 1576 18,408 2004 1081 1532 17,683 2003 1019 1860 17,232 2002 1002 1806 16,391 2001 865 2185 15,587 2000 56 1805 14,267 1999 489 1838 12,518 1998 537 1950 11,169 1997 507 1632 9756 1996 498 1440 8631 1995 234 1977 7689 1994 160 1655 5946 1993 174 955 4451 1992 115 555 3670 1991 186 457 3230 1990 118 251 2959 1989 80 364 2826 1988 35 457 2542 1987 24 437 2120 1986 17 326 1707 1985 19 255 1398 1984 25 194 1162 1983 24 189 993 1982 16 117 828 1981 20 73 727 1980 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 5 143 1951 0 7 138 1950 0 14 131 1949 0 4 117 1948 0 10 113 1947 0 5 103 1946 0 5 98 1945 0 6 93 1944 0 0 87 1943 0 0 87 1942 0 1 87 1941 0 8 86 1940 0 7 78 1939 0 9 71 1938 0 3 62 1937 0 2 59 1936 0 9 57 1935 0 2 48 1934 0 11 46 1933 0 15 35 1932 0 3 20 1931 0 1 17 1930 0 6 16 1929 0 4 10 1928 0 0 6 1927 0 1 6 1926 0 1 5 1925 0 3 4 1924 0 1 1 1923 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year 0 39 383 1966 25 51 674 1979 26 32 648 1978 27 39 642 1977 25 56 630 1976 31 24 599 1975 47 32 606 1974 36 28 621 1973 35 29 629 1972 32 45 635 1971 23 59 622 1970 8 98 586 1969 1 76 496 1968 0 38 421 1967 0 25 344 1965 0 16 319 1964 0 10 303 1963 0 13 293 1962 33 26 280 1961 0 17 287 1960 0 25 270 1959 0 18 245 1958 0 20 227 1957 0 18 207 1956 0 3 189 1955 0 20 186 1954 0 13 166 1953 0 10 153 1952 Number of Dead Funds Number of New Funds Number of Funds Year
    • 9. For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
    • 10. The Worst 200 Dead Mutual Funds - 73.9 % AVERAGE RETURN For illustrative purposes only. Mutual fund data provided by CRSP Survivor Bias Free Mutual Fund Database. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS AND INVESTORS MAY EXPERIENCE A LOSS.
    • 11. MYTH 2: TRACK-RECORD INVESTING Track-Record Investing : The use of performance history to determine the best investments for the future. THE MYTH: Finding funds that did well in the past is a reliable method of indicating which funds will do well in the future.
    • 12. Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return All Funds Average Return S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index Total Funds 1988-1997 Total Funds 1998-2007 1988-1997 23.13 15.82 18.86 18.60 572 1998-2007 6.20 6.98 7.23 7.68 2228
    • 13. Track Record Investing Top 30 Funds Average Return All Funds Average Return S&P 500 Index CRSP 1-10 Index No. of Funds 1990-1994 18.77 9.40 8.69 9.04 569 1995-1999 21.66 22.24 28.55 27.42 1,524
    • 14. A manager’s ability to pick stocks in the past has ZERO CORRELATION with his/her ability to do so in the future.
    • 15. MYTH 3: MARKET TIMING Market Timing : Any attempt to alter or change the mix of assets based on a prediction or forecast about the future. THE MYTH: Money managers are able to utilize market timing to effectively predict up & down markets.
    • 16.
      • As the chart below clearly indicates – The Average Investor earns significantly less than the market indices, and investors that time the market actually lose money over the period measured.
      • DALBAR, Inc., Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2008
      DALBAR Research Study Results 3.04% Inflation (-1.35%) Market Timer Equity Fund Investor 5.83% Systematic Equity Fund Investor 4.48% Average Equity Fund Investor 11.81% S&P 500 Index 1988-2007 Annualized Return CATEGORY
    • 17.
      • Return of Growth of $10,000
      • S&P 500 Index Investment *
      • Fully Invested 8.33% $22,252
      • Missed 10 best days 3.32% $13,864
      • Missed 20 best days - 0.46% $9,548
      • Missed 30 best days -3.71% $6,649
      • Missed 40 best days -6.42% $5,148
      • Missed 60 best days -10.98% $3,125
      WHY MARKET TIMING DOESN’T WORK *Fact Set Research Systems Based on initial investment of $10,000 January 1, 1996 – December 31, 2006 2,520 Trading Days
    • 18.
      • “ Tactical Asset Allocation”
      • is Market Timing in Disguise
      BEWARE: MARKET TIMING
    • 19. CHARLES D. ELLIS “ The evidence on investment managers’ success with market timing is impressive - and overwhelmingly negative.” Charles D. Ellis, Investment Policy , 1993 Charles D. Ellis is a managing partner of Greenwich Associates, the leading consulting firm specializing in financial services worldwide. B.A. Yale, M.B.A (with distinction) Harvard and Ph.D. New York University
    • 20. MYTH 4: COSTS OF INVESTING Costs of Investing : Fees incurred by investors to buy, sell, and own stocks or mutual funds. THE MYTH: What you don’t see can’t hurt you.
    • 21.
      • Bid/Ask Spread
      • Mutual Funds
      THE COSTS OF INVESTING
    • 22. Bid/Ask Spread BUY Price $50.00 Market Maker $.50 Spread SELL Price $49.50
    • 23. BID/ASK SPREAD What Your Broker Won’t Tell You Source: Reuters Trading Systems (Apr. 30, 2007) The Bid/Ask Spread as a percent of price is a conservative estimate of actual trading costs. This estimate is almost 80 times as great for the smallest market segment as for the largest market segment (2.40 vs 0.03). 0.24 17.92 163-521 0.06 51.32 1,800-4,454 0.03 62.86 25,456-446,994 2.40 7.95 0-163 0.11 31.11 521-1,800 0.05 58.72 4,454-25,456 Percent Spread Average Price Market Cap Range ($Millions)
    • 24. CONSUMER “NO LOAD” MUTUAL FUNDS “ The key question under the new rules of the game is this: How much better must a[n]...[actively trading]... manager be to at least recover the cost of...[portfolio turnover]? The answer is daunting.” Source: Charles D. Ellis, Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser's Game , 1985 1. Mutual fund trading plus bid/ask spread cost taken from Investment Policy - How to Win the Loser’s Game , 2nd Edition by Charles D. Ellis (1993) p.8-9.
    • 25.
      • The Myths
        • Stock Selection
        • Track-Record Investing
        • Market Timing
        • Costs of Investing
      • Next…
        • The Truth
      SO FAR…
    • 26. THE STORY OF INVESTING: FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY
    • 27.
      • Free Market Portfolio Theory is:
        • An investment approach firmly grounded in the academic research of the last 50 years.
        • A disciplined approach to capturing market returns while managing volatility.
      WHAT IS FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY?
    • 28. THE COMPONENTS OF FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY
      • COMPONENT 1:
      • Free Markets Work
      COMPONENT 3: The Three-Factor Model COMPONENT 2: Modern Portfolio Theory
    • 29. LEADING ACADEMICS WHO CONTRIBUTE TO FREE MARKET PORTFOLIO THEORY
      • Harry Markowitz: Nobel Prize Laureate, 1990, University of Chicago
      • Merton H. Miller: Nobel Prize Laureate, 1990 - Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service, University of Chicago
      • Rex Sinquefield: Co-author Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation , MBA, University of Chicago, BA, St. Louis University
      • Roger G. Ibbotson: Co-author Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation , Professor of Finance, School of Organization and Management, Yale University
      • Eugene F. Fama: Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago
      • Kenneth French: Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College
    • 30.
      • Free Markets Work
      COMPONENT 1: “ In [a free] market at any point in time the actual price of a security will be a good estimate of its intrinsic value.” - Eugene F. Fama , “Random Walks in Stock Market Prices,” Financial Analysts Journal, September/October 1965 .
    • 31.
      • The market fails to price goods and services appropriately.
      • It is possible for some individuals to identify in advance which prices are inaccurate.
      • Underpriced or overvalued markets can be forecast or predicted.
      • By taking advantage of these mispricings either in stocks or market sectors, it is possible to both increase returns and avoid losses in investments.
      • People with this view would utilize traditional investment myths and speculate with their assets.
      FREE MARKETS FAIL
    • 32.
      • Based on supply and demand the free market is the best determinant of market prices.
      • All available information is factored into the current price.
      • Only new and unknowable information and events change pricing.
      • The randomness of the market makes it impossible for any individual or entity to consistently predict market movements and capture additional returns unrelated to risk.
      • People with this view would utilize free market investment strategies.
      FREE MARKETS WORK
    • 33. BELIEFS DICTATE ACTION
      • FREE MARKETS WORK
      • Focus on capturing market returns
      • Utilize asset-class or structured funds
      • Diversify prudently
      • Identify your risk tolerance
      • Eliminate traditional investment strategies
      • Work with a financial coach who shares your market belief
      • FREE MARKETS FAIL
      • Pursue traditional investment strategies
      • Stay connected to all sources of financial information
      • Read every investment article you can find
      • Work with a financial professional who shares your market belief
    • 34.
      • Modern Portfolio Theory
      • Diversification Works
      COMPONENT 2: Nobel Prize Winners, 1990 Harry Markowitz William Sharpe Merton Miller
    • 35. DR. HARRY MARKOWITZ As a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago in the 1950's, Dr. Markowitz won acclaim for his studies on portfolio design and risk reduction. These concepts were later crucial for the development of Modern Portfolio Theory. Nobel Prize Winner 1990
    • 36. MARKOWITZ EFFICIENT FRONTIER Maximizing Expected Returns for Any Level of Volatility 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 10 12 14 16 One Year Standard Deviation (Volatility) Annualized Compound Return Growth Aggressive S&P 500 Conservative Moderate
    • 37. DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE 1.8 2.1 4.6 91.5
    • 38. ASSET CLASS CORRELATION Example Portfolio Time Value Investment A Investment B Portfolio 50/50 Combined Portfolio
    • 39. INCREASE RETURNS AND REDUCE VOLATILITY Source: DFA Returns Software 12/07 Return(%) Simplified Example Of Low Correlation Benefits January 1971 - December 2007 (in $U.S.) Standard Deviation Large U.S. 100% S&P 500 Index 1,7 11.27 16.78 70% S&P 500 1,7 30% EAFE 1,5 Large U.S. EAFE 16.35 11.61 70% S&P 500 1 ,7 20% EAFE 1 ,5 10% Int'l Small 1 ,3,4 Large U.S. EAFE Small Int'l 16.28 12.32
    • 40.
      • The Three-Factor Model
      COMPONENT 3: Source: Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1992 “The cross-section of Expected Stock Returns”, Journal of Finance 47 (June), 427-465 Eugene Fama & Kenneth French
        • Factor 1: The Market Factor
        • Factor 2: The Size Factor
        • Factor 3: The “Value” Factor
    • 41.
      • Equities are riskier than fixed income.
      • Equities historically provide a higher rate of return.
      FACTOR 1: THE MARKET FACTOR 1926-2007 S&P 500 1,7 T-Bills Annualized Return 10.36 3.73 Standard Deviation 19.97 3.09 Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07
    • 42.
      • Small companies are riskier than large companies.
      • Small companies historically provide a higher return than large companies.
      FACTOR 2: THE SIZE FACTOR Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07 1926-2007 S&P 500 1,7 U.S. Small Co. Annualized Return 10.36 12.49 Standard Deviation 19.97 38.83
    • 43.
      • High book-to-market (value) stocks are riskier than low book-to-market (growth) stocks.
      • High book-to-market stocks historically provide higher return than low book-to-market stocks.
      FACTOR 3: THE VALUE FACTOR Source: DFA Returns Software, 12/07 July 1926-2007 S&P 500 1,7 U.S. Lg. Value 1,2 Annualized Return 10.45 12.48 Standard Deviation 19.10 25.09
    • 44.
      • Free Markets Work
      • + Modern Portfolio Theory
      • + The Three-Factor Model
      • = Free Market Portfolio Theory
      THE TRUTH
    • 45. BUILDING A BETTER PORTFOLIO AVERAGE INVESTOR EQUITY PERFORMANCE
    • 46. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Portfolio 1 100% Equity Mutual Funds 1988-2007 Portfolio 1 4.48 15.79 Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%) 60% 40% Actual Investor Results 100% Equity Mutual Funds Dalbar Investor Results Research for period 1988-2007 Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
    • 47.
      • Average Holding Period – 3.0 Years *
      • Track-Record Investing – Chasing the Market
      • Hyperactive Stock Picking
      • Market Timing
      WHY ARE THE RETURNS SO LOW? *Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007, 20-year period
    • 48. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Basic Passively Invested Portfolio S&P 500 Index 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 * 4.48 15.79 Portfolio 2 10.97 17.23 Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2 100% Equity Mutual Funds 100% S&P 500
      • Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007; 1985-2007.
      • Return and Standard Deviation data from DFA Returns Software updated through 12/31/06
      • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset Allocation and diversification strategies cannot insure a profit or protect against a loss.
    • 49. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Including Fixed Income Assets in the Portfolio 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 60% 20% 20% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 * 4.48 15.79 Portfolio 2 10.97 17.23 Portfolio 3 10.12 10.78 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3 60% 20% 20% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income
      • Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007; 1985-2007.
      • Return and Standard Deviation data from DFA Returns Software updated through 12/31/06.
      • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset Allocation and diversification strategies cannot insure a profit or protect against loss.
    • 50. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Including International Assets in the Portfolios 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 30% 20% 20% 30% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 * 4.48 15.79 Portfolio 2 10.97 17.23 Portfolio 3 10.12 10.78 Portfolio 4 10.16 10.62 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3 60% 20% 20% Portfolio 4 30% 20% 20% 30% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index
      • Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007; 1985-2007.
      • Returns and Standard Deviation data from DFA Returns Software updated through 12/31/06.
      • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset Allocation and diversification strategies cannot insure a profit or protect against a loss.
    • 51. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Adding Small Cap Stocks 1973-2007 Annualized Return (%) 20% 15% 20% 15% 15% 15% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 * 4.48 15.79 Portfolio 2 10.97 17.23 Portfolio 3 10.12 10.78 Portfolio 4 10.16 10.62 Portfolio 5 11.48 11.31 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3 60% 20% 20% Portfolio 4 30% 20% 20% 30% Portfolio 5 15% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index U.S. 9-10 Small Co. Int’l Small Cap Stocks
      • Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007; 1985-2007.
      • Return and Standard Deviation data from DFA Returns Software updated through 12/31/06
      • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset Allocation and diversification strategies cannot insure a profit or protect against a loss.
    • 52. CREATING A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Adding High Book-to-Market [Value] Stocks Annualized Return (%) 20% 20% 7.5% 15% 7.5% 7.5% 15% 7.5% Annualized Standard Deviation (%) Portfolio 1 * 4.48 15.79 Portfolio 2 10.97 17.23 Portfolio 3 10.12 10.78 Portfolio 4 10.16 10.62 Portfolio 5 11.48 11.31 Portfolio 6 12.06 10.98 S&P 500 Index Portfolio 1 100% Portfolio 2 100% Portfolio 3 60% 20% 20% Portfolio 4 30% 20% 20% 30% Portfolio 5 15% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% Portfolio 6 7.5% 20% 20% 15% 7.5% 15% 7.5% 7.5% Equity Mutual Funds 5-Year Government Portfolio One-Year Fixed Income EAFE Index U.S. 9-10 Small Co. Int’l Small Cap Stocks U.S. Small Cap Value U.S. Large Cap Value 1973-2007
      • Portfolio 1- Data from DALBAR, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2007; 1985-2007.
      • Return and Standard Deviation data from DFA Returns Software updated through 12/31/06
      • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset Allocation and diversification strategies cannot insure a profit or protect against a loss.
    • 53. THE 20 MUST-ANSWER QUESTIONS FOR YOUR JOURNEY TOWARD PEACE OF MIND Directions: Answer each question “Yes” or “No.” Your Answer must be 100% “Yes” to qualify as “Yes.”
    • 54. QUESTION 1 Have you discovered your True Purpose for Money, that which is more important than money itself?
    • 55. QUESTION 2 Are you invested in the Market?
    • 56. QUESTION 3 Do you know how markets work?
    • 57. QUESTION 4 Have you defined your Investment Philosophy?
    • 58. QUESTION 5 Have you identified your personal risk tolerance?
    • 59. QUESTION 6 Do you know how to measure diversification in your portfolio?
    • 60. QUESTION 7 Do you consistently and predictably achieve market returns?
    • 61. QUESTION 8 Have you measured the total amount of commissions and costs in your portfolio?
    • 62. QUESTION 9 Do you know where you fall on the Markowitz Efficient Frontier?
    • 63. QUESTION 10 When it comes to building your investment portfolio, do you know exactly what you are doing and why?
    • 64. QUESTION 11 Are you working with a financial coach versus a financial planner?
    • 65. QUESTION 12 Do you have a customized lifelong game plan to guide all of your investing and spending decisions?
    • 66. QUESTION 13 Do you have an Investment Policy Statement?
    • 67. QUESTION 14 Have you devised a clear-cut method for measuring the success or failure of your portfolio?
    • 68. QUESTION 15 Do you fully understand the implications and applications of diversification in your portfolio?
    • 69. QUESTION 16 Do you have a system to measure portfolio volatility?
    • 70. QUESTION 17 Are you aware of the incentives brokerage firms and the financial community have when selling commission-based products?
    • 71. QUESTION 18 Do you know the three warning signs that you are gambling and speculating with your money versus prudently investing it?
    • 72. QUESTION 19 Can you identify the cultural messages and personal mind-sets about money that destroy your peace of mind?
    • 73. QUESTION 20 Are you ready to shift your personal experience of money and investing from a scarcity mode to an abundance mode?
    • 74.
      • 85-100: Amazing Investor Congratulations! You are among the most educated, diligent and confident investors. You have experience in the investment markets and understand what it takes to be successful. Now is the time to support your current knowledge with discipline and educational reinforcement.
      • 65-80: Better Investor As a Better Investor, you have been around the block a time or two and maybe had some less than successful investing experiences. Now is the time to expand your knowledge about investing and begin to make some solid choices about your financial future. To achieve this, seek answers to the questions you missed.
      • 45-60: Common Investor You are not alone. Like many investors, you may frequently find yourself uncertain and confused about how to make the right investment choices. If you don’t already have an Investor Coach that you trust completely, now is the time to build a relationship to last a lifetime.
      • 25-40: Discouraged Investor It’s easy to feel discouraged when you have been doing what you thought were the right things with your money without success. You may have followed all of the advice that you’ve read in financial magazines and newspapers, yet you are not getting the exponential results you had expected.
      • 0-20: Frustrated Investor Flustered and confused, you may wonder where to begin – how is it even possible to wade through all of the information that you are being bombarded with on a daily basis. Sort through the chaos and find a path that is right for you.
      SCORING: Give yourself 5 points for every “Yes” answer.
    • 75. Learn more about what this means for you THE OPPORTUNITY
    • 76.
      • No reinvestment of dividends or other earnings were included in the calculations. No commissions or fees have been deducted from the market performance figures because the intent is to show the benefits of diversification of asset classes and not to indicate the results Matrix would have achieved if it managed a client’s funds. If an investor invested in mutual funds designed to reflect asset class performance, the investor would, in effect, be paying an advisory fee to the mutual fund manager and brokerage commissions because these fees and commissions would be relected in the mutual fund’s expenses that are deducted from the value of each share of the mutual fund. If, in addition, an investor engaged an investment advisor to manage the assets, the investor would pay an investment advisory fee to this manager. If an investor also utilized the services of a separate custodian, the investor would pay additional fees to the custodian. The returns of the hypothetical asset class mixes frequently exceeded the results of Matrix clients’ portfolios with similar investment objectives for the period Matrix has managed clients’ funds from 1991 to present. This difference is due to differing allocations over the time periods shown. These allocations differed because of different asset classes used, new research applied, and because of deduction of commission. Also, it is not possible to invest in an index. Past performance of markets is no guarantee of future performance and clients may experience a loss.
      • US Large Value = U.S. Large Cap Value Portfolio:
          • July 1926-March 1993: Fama-French Large Cap Value Strategy. Simulates Dimensional’s hold range and estimated trading costs. Courtesy of Fama-French and CRSP: deciles 1-5 size, (.7) BtM.
          • April 1993-Present: U.S. Large Cap Value Portfolio net of all fees.
      • DFA International Small Company Strategy/DFA International Large Company Strategy:
          • January 1970-June 1998: 50% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 50% DFA U.K. Portfolio net of all fees.
          • July 1998-September 1989: 50% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 20% DFA UK Portfolio, 30% DFA Continental Portfolio net of all fees.
          • October 1989-March 1990: 40% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 30% DFA Continental Portfolio, 20% DFA UK Portfolio, 10% DFA Asia/Australia Portfolio net of all fees.
          • April 1990-December 1992: 40% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 35% DFA Continental Portfolio, 15% DFA UK Portfolio, 10% DFA Asia/Australia Portfolio net of all fees.
          • January 1993-March 1997: 35% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 35% DFA Continental Portfolio, 15% DFA UK Portfolio, 15% DFA Asia/Australia Portfolio net of all fees.
          • April 1997-March 1998: 30% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 35% DFA Continental Portfolio, 15% DFA UK Portfolio, 20% DFA Asia/Australia Portfolio net of all fees.
          • April 1998-Present: 25% DFA Japanese Portfolio, 40% DFA Continental Portfolio, 20% DFA UK Portfolio, 15% DFA Asia/Australia Portfolio net of all fees.
      • 4. DFA International Small Company Portfolio:
          • January 1970-September 1996: DFA International Small Company Strategy.
          • October 1996-Present: DFA International Small Company Portfolio net of all fees.
      • EAFE Index: Courtesy of Morgan Stanley Capital International. Europe, Australia, and Far East Index net dividends ($).
          • January 1969-Present: EAFE Index Including gross dividends ($).
      • 6. US Small Co = CRSP 9-10 Index: Courtesy of Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Small Company Universe Returns (Deciles 9 &10) all Exchanges.
          • January 1926-June 1962: NYSE, rebalanced semi-annually.
          • July 1962-December 1972: CRSP Database, NYSE & AMEX, rebalanced quarterly.
          • January 1973-September 1988: CRSP Database, NYSE, AMEX & OTC, rebalanced quarterly.
          • October 1988-Present: CRSP Index (NYSE & AMEX & OTC).
      • S&P 500: Courtesy of Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: The Past and the Future , Dow Jones, 1989. Ibbotson Associates, Chicago, annually updates work by Roger Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield. Used with Permission. All rights reserved. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged market value-weighted index which measures the change in aggregate market value of 500 stocks relative to the base period 1941-1943. This index does not incur fees and charges typically associated with investing and values would be lower if such fees and charges were taken into consideration. Individuals may not invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
      ENDNOTES
    • 77.
      • 6. US Small Co = CRSP 9-10 Index: Courtesy of Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Small Company Universe Returns (Deciles 9 &10) all Exchanges.
          • January 1926-June 1962: NYSE, rebalanced semi-annually.
          • July 1962-December 1972: CRSP Database, NYSE & AMEX, rebalanced quarterly.
          • January 1973-September 1988: CRSP Database, NYSE, AMEX & OTC, rebalanced quarterly.
          • October 1988-Present: CRSP Index (NYSE & AMEX & OTC).
      • S&P 500: Courtesy of Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: The Past and the Future , Dow Jones, 1989. Ibbotson Associates, Chicago, annually updates work by Roger Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield. Used with Permission. All rights reserved. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged market value-weighted index which measures the change in aggregate market value of 500 stocks relative to the base period 1941-1943. This index does not incur fees and charges typically associated with investing and values would be lower if such fees and charges were taken into consideration. Individuals may not invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
      • 35- Year performance figures taken from Dimensional Fund Advisor, Inc. (DFA) Returns software 12/07. Some data provided to DFA by the Center for Research & Security Pricing (CRSP), University of Chicago. Asset Classes defined as: Consumer Price Index for inflation, CRSP 30 day bill index for Treasury Bills, CRSP Long-term U.S. Government Bond Index for Long-Term Government Bonds, S&P 500 Index for U.S. large stocks, CRSP 9-10 Index for U.S. small stocks, Morgan Stanley Europe, Australia, Far East (EAFE) Index for international large stocks, and the international small stock index created by DFA using CRSP data. CONSERVATIVE, MODERATE, GROWTH, & AGGRESSIVE These results are based on the performance of 30 day T-Bills, Dimensional’s One-Year Fixed Strategy [1972- July 1983 – Simulated CD Fixed Income Strategy (maximum maturity 1 year) Aug. 1983 – DFA Fixed Income Portfolio returns net of all fees (weighted average maturity under 1 year)], Dimensional’s Five-Year Government Portfolio [Average maturity: Under Five Years, 1953-May 1987 – Simulation using U.S. Government Instruments (maximum maturity five years) June 1987 – DFA Five Year Government Portfolio net of all fees], S&P 500 Index, CRSP Large Value Index, CRSP (Center for Research & Security Pricing) 9-10, CRSP 6-10, CRSP Small Value Index, EAFE Index, and Dimensional’s Small International Index (1970-June 1988 – 50% Japan, 50% United Kingdom. July 1988- September 1989 – 50% Japan, 30% Continental, 20% United Kingdom, October 1989 – March 1990 -40% Japan, 40% Continental, 20% United Kingdom, 10% Asia-Australia. April 1990 – December 1992 – 40% Japan, 35% Continental, 15% United Kingdom, 10% Asia-Australia. January 1993 to present – 35% Japan, 35% Continental, 15% United Kingdom, 15% Australia.], and assume the asset allocation among these indices as shown under “Conservative”, “Moderate”, “Growth”, and “Aggressive” in the chart entitled Allocation of Sample Asset Class Mixes.
      • All investing involves risk and costs. Your advisor can provide you with more information about the risks and costs
      • associated with specific programs. No investment strategy (including asset allocation and diversification strategies) can
      • ensure peace of mind, assure profit, or protect against loss.
      ENDNOTES