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25-JUNE-2013
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MCX NEWSLETTER- DAILY
Daily MCX Newsletter
25-JUNE-2013

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MARKET WRAP
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BULLION
According to a research report by ETF Securities, as long
as the Fed continues to re-affirm its commitment to
reduce QE in the coming months it seems likely that gold
prices will remain weak.
The research analysts maintained that gold has been hit
by rising tactical shorts, but the opportunities seem to be
open for contrarian investors.
As highlighted by the IMF, a substantial reduction in
stimulus at this point in the cycle could prove to be
premature. “The more than doubling of US 10-year
government bond yields to a 22-month high, the strength
of the US dollar and reduced fiscal stimulus, would risk
dragging the US growth sharply lower later this year. If
this occurs, the Fed will likely step back from QE
reductions. With gold positioning so negative, this has
the potential to stimulate a strong short-covering gold
price move,” ETF Securities analysts maintained.
“However, it is far from certain, in our view, that the US
is on a sustainable recovery path. There is also little
evidence of rising inflation and the US unemployment
rate has declined largely because of a reduced
participation rate rather than rapid growth of new jobs,”
the report added.
However, platinum also trades 25 % below estimated
marginal cost of production. Platinum and palladium
prices also fell last week. However, unlike gold and silver,
the main reason for their price declines is likely have
been related to a general reduction by investors of
“risky” cyclical assets in reaction to expected reduced
liquidity injections by the US Fed later this year.
MARKET NEWS
ENERGY
If oil and gas is a profoundly dynamic phenomenon, then
so too must be environmental risk and conflicts over
natural resources—and we are not getting the full picture
from the mainstream media, according to Michael T.
Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at
Hampshire College, TomDispatch blogger, and author of
Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of
Energy (Metropolitan Books, 2008). As risk multiply,
conventional sources evaporate and we are left with
"extreme" energy, renewables may be the only way to
avoid war and disaster.
Depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar has
limited further fall in the commodity to some extent.
Meanwhile, US natural gas prices continued their
negative trend for third consecutive day on higher than
expected natural gas inventories and supply.
US working gas in storage was 2,438 Bcf as of Friday, June
14, 2013, according to Energy Information Administration
(EIA) estimates. This represents a net increase of 91 Bcf
from the previous week. Stocks were 559 Bcf less than
last year at this time and 47 Bcf below the 5-year average
of 2,485 Bcf.
In the East Region, stocks were 94 Bcf below the 5-year
average following net injections of 60 Bcf. Stocks in the
Producing Region were 3 Bcf above the 5-year average of
930 Bcf after a net injection of 20 Bcf.
Stocks in the West Region were 44 Bcf above the 5-year
average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 2,438 Bcf, total
working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
BASE METAL
A Bloomberg report noted that LME faces danger to
take on the competition with Shanghai Futures
Exchange, as the latter will attract an increasingly
large amount of business post opening of Chinese
futures exchange.
“The danger for the LME is that if they don’t get into
China, Shanghai will attract an increasingly large
amount of business once China opens up,” the report
quoted Christopher Gilbert, a professor at Trento
University in Italy.
The LME has already handled $14.5 trillion of trade
last year. Also, the exchange has a huge network of
over 700 warehouses in 36 locations, which would
ensure swift physical delivery.
However, Chinese regulations from 2008 mean it has
no depot in the biggest metal-consuming nation.
“Under Hong Kong Exchanges, it’s certainly increased
the chances of getting into China. They really need to
have warehouses on the mainland,” commented
Gilbert. The LME board picked HKEx, with no existing
commodities business, over bids from Intercontinental
Exchange Inc., CME Group Inc. and NYSE Euronext, in
part because it judged Li, the former chairman of
JPMorgan Chase & Co. in China, the most likely to win
over Chinese regulators.
LME has already started its expansions before Li took
over. The bourse has opened a Singapore office in
2010, its first in the region, and introduced Asian
benchmark prices for copper, aluminum and zinc in
2011.

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GOLD (5 AUGUST)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - BEARISH
RESISTANCE : - 27060, 27260
SUPPORT : - 26370, 26160
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
TECHNICAL
VIEW
SILVER (5 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - BEARISH
RESISTANCE : - 41400, 42200
SUPPORT : - 40500, 40000
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
BULLION

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ENERGY
CRUDEOIL (19 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 5760, 5820
SUPPORT : - 5640, 5570
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
NATURAL GAS (28 MAY
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 230.00, 235.00
SUPPORT : - 222.00, 219.00
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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BASE METAL
COPPER (28 JUNE)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - BEARISH
RESISTANCE : - 406.50, 408.60
SUPPORT : - 397.00, 394.00
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
LEAD (28 JUNE)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - BEARISH
RESISTANCE : - 121.40, 123.80
SUPPORT : - 118.50, 116.90
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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ZINC (28 JUNE)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 108.80, 110.30
SUPPORT : - 106.50, 105.00
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
ALUMINUM (28 JUNE)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 106.80, 108.00
SUPPORT : - 102.50, 101.90
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
NICKEL (28 JUNE)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 824.80, 840.00
SUPPORT : - 810.00, 790.00
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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GOLD 1289.79
SILVER 19.7700
COPPER 03.0658
CRUDE OIL 96.3100
NATURAL GAS 03.862
PALLADIUM 671.35
PLATINUM 1357.50
USDINR 59.7200
EURUSD 01.3121
USDJPY 97.9600
USDCHF 00.9341
GBPUSD 01.5449
USDCAD 01.0501
INTERNATIONAL
MARKET

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