Broken Patterns – The End of Infinity?Linda IrwinExecutive Director Corporate Development, Henley Business School<br />
What a difference a year makes<br />
Oil Price Volatility<br />Government Scandals<br />Economic Tsunami<br />Natural disasters<br />Record Job Losses<br />Fin...
The Credit Crunch Bites Hard<br />
Didn’t we see it coming?<br />
August 2007<br />The Scale of the Crisis Emerges<br />
Starting with…?<br />
BNP Paribas tells investors they will not be able to take money out of two of its funds because it cannot value the assets...
13th September 2007<br />Northern Rock gets emergency financial support from the Bank of England<br />
A day later depositors withdraw   £1 billion in what is the biggest run on a British bank for more             than a cent...
September 2007<br />A raft of negative news from around the world sees the FTSE notch up its steepest weekly decline since...
February 2008<br />Leaders from the G7 group of industrialised nations say worldwide losses could reach $400 billion <br />
April 2008<br />The 100% mortgage disappears<br />
April 2008<br />Persimmon becomes the first UK house builder to announce major cutbacks<br />
Citing the lack of affordable mortgages and a fall in consumer confidence<br />
July 2008<br />The British Chambers of Commerce suggest that the UK is facing a serious risk of recession within months<br />
July 2008<br />Financial authorities step in to assist America&apos;s two largest lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac<br />
September 2008<br />But are rescued by the US government in one of the largest bailouts in US history<br />
That Same Month…<br />
Lehman Brothers files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, becoming the first major bank to collapse since the start of t...
and…<br />
Largest bank failure in the U.S. Washington Mutual, with assets of      $307 billion, is closed down by regulators and sol...
Bradford & Bingley is nationalised. The British government takes control of £50 billion            mortgages and loans<br />
Wall Street shares plunge,  Dow Jones Index slumps          7% or 770 points, a record    one-day point fall<br />
October 2008<br />The UK is on the brink of a recession<br />
November 2008<br />The Eurozone officially slips into recession <br />
December 2008<br />The U.S. recession is officially declared<br />
The same month…<br />
The FTSE 100 closes down 31.3% since the beginning of 2008…<br />
… the biggest annual fall in the           24 years since the index was started <br />
January 2009<br />The Bank of England cuts interest rates to 1.5%, the lowest level in its 315-year history<br />
But…<br />
The UK officially entered                      a recession<br />
The current budget deficit surged by over 1000% to £51.4 billion in fiscal 2008/09 from £5.2 billion      in 2007/08<br />
June 2009<br />UK unemployment rate rises to 7.1% <br />= 2.6 million<br />+ cutbacks and ‘career holidays’<br />
Leadership?<br />
Conrad Black<br />Adam Applegarth<br />Fred Goodwin - RBS<br />Richard Madoff<br />Jeffrey Keith &quot;Jeff&quot; Skilling...
MBA – Harvard Business School<br />BUT…4 years ago Enron was widely regarded as having the best talent management system a...
Senior Management at non-U.S. Companies<br />Senior Management at U.S. Companies<br />Academic Institutions<br />Consultan...
… and if this wasn’t bad enough…<br />
2008 was one of the worst years for natural disasters so far this decade, 235,816 people were killed<br />in 321 different...
The world’s disasters in 2008 caused estimated damage of<br />$227 billion, some $136 billion of that in China<br />
and…<br /> Michael Jackson R.I.P<br />
Hopeless end or endless hope?…<br />So what’s coming?<br />
An increasingly complex, volatile, changing world<br />
By 2025 – 1,400 people!<br />
China will soon become the<br />NUMBER ONE<br />English Speaking Country in the world.<br />
Shifting patterns?<br />B.R.I.C.S GDP (Brazil, Russia, India & China)<br />Will match original G7 Share of Global GDP by 2...
…even sooner 2025<br />E7 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico)willtriple GDP growth.<br />
Annually 1 million migrants<br />Western EuropeTheDestination of Choice?<br />Already home to 35 million foreign born. <br />
The 25% of India’s population with the highest IQ’s…<br />… is GREATER than the total population of the United States <br />
TRANSLATION:<br />India has more honours children than America has kids<br />
6.8 billion population in 2009<br />8 billion population in 2025<br />
Over the next several decades the number of people considered to be in the “global middle class” is projected to swell fro...
The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50% by 2030.<br />
By 2025-2030, the portion of the world considered poor will shrink by about 23% but the world’s poor - still 63% of the gl...
The populations of more than 50 countries will increase by more than a third<br />
Between now and 2025…Russia, Ukraine, Italy, Eastern Europe, and Japan will see theirpopulations decline by several percen...
Today,nearly 7 out of every 10 people…<br />… in the developed world are in the traditional working years (ages 15 to 64)....
This number hasnever before been so highand, according to experts, in all likelihood will never be so high again<br />
Women, barely present on corporate payrolls 30 years ago, now constitute at least half the overall workforce in many devel...
The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010<br />
…did not exist in 2004<br />
1 out of 8 couples married<br />in the U.S. last year met online<br />
Twitter was the fastest-growing site in February 2009<br />There are over55 million monthly visits on twitter<br />
and overmore than 200 million active users on Facebook<br />
The #1 ranked country in<br />Broadband Internet Penetration is…<br />Bermuda<br />#19 The United States <br />#22 Japan <...
We are living in exponential times<br />
There are31 Billionsearches on Google every month<br />
In 2006, this number was2.7 Billion<br />
The first commercial text message was sent in December 1992.<br />
Radio38 years<br />Years it took to reach         a market audience of 50 million<br />
TV13 years<br />Years it took to reach         a market audience of 50 million<br />
Internet4 years<br />Years it took to reach         a market audience of 50 million<br />
Years it took to reach         a market audience of 50 million<br />iPod3 years<br />
Years it took to reach         a market audience of 50 million<br />Facebook2 years<br />
The number of internet devices in 1984 was          1,000<br />
The number of internet devices in 1992 was   1,000,000<br />
The number of internet devices in 2008 was 1,000,000,000<br />
There are about<br />540,000 words in<br />the English Language<br />
About 5x as many as during Shakespeare’s time<br />
It is estimated that a<br />week’s worth of The Times…<br />
For students starting our three-year University of Reading degree or Henley MBA, this means that . . .<br />
half of what they learn in their first year of study will be outdatedby their graduation.<br />
NTT Japan have successfully tested a fibre optic cable…<br />that pushes 14 trillion bits per second down a single strand ...
2,660<br />210<br />
By 2013, a supercomputer will be built that exceeds the computationalcapabilities of the human brain<br />super<br />2013<...
£500<br />
67<br />UK<br />7<br />95<br />
…and 694,000songs weredownloadedillegally<br />
Broken Patterns - The End Of Infinity?
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The global recession, how it happened and what the world might look like by 2025

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Broken Patterns - The End Of Infinity?

  1. 1. Broken Patterns – The End of Infinity?Linda IrwinExecutive Director Corporate Development, Henley Business School<br />
  2. 2. What a difference a year makes<br />
  3. 3. Oil Price Volatility<br />Government Scandals<br />Economic Tsunami<br />Natural disasters<br />Record Job Losses<br />Financial Meltdown<br />Moral Failure<br />Swine Flu<br />Bankruptcies<br />
  4. 4. The Credit Crunch Bites Hard<br />
  5. 5. Didn’t we see it coming?<br />
  6. 6. August 2007<br />The Scale of the Crisis Emerges<br />
  7. 7. Starting with…?<br />
  8. 8. BNP Paribas tells investors they will not be able to take money out of two of its funds because it cannot value the assets in them<br />
  9. 9. 13th September 2007<br />Northern Rock gets emergency financial support from the Bank of England<br />
  10. 10. A day later depositors withdraw £1 billion in what is the biggest run on a British bank for more than a century<br />
  11. 11. September 2007<br />A raft of negative news from around the world sees the FTSE notch up its steepest weekly decline since July 2002<br />
  12. 12. February 2008<br />Leaders from the G7 group of industrialised nations say worldwide losses could reach $400 billion <br />
  13. 13. April 2008<br />The 100% mortgage disappears<br />
  14. 14. April 2008<br />Persimmon becomes the first UK house builder to announce major cutbacks<br />
  15. 15. Citing the lack of affordable mortgages and a fall in consumer confidence<br />
  16. 16. July 2008<br />The British Chambers of Commerce suggest that the UK is facing a serious risk of recession within months<br />
  17. 17. July 2008<br />Financial authorities step in to assist America&apos;s two largest lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac<br />
  18. 18. September 2008<br />But are rescued by the US government in one of the largest bailouts in US history<br />
  19. 19. That Same Month…<br />
  20. 20. Lehman Brothers files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, becoming the first major bank to collapse since the start of the credit crisis <br />
  21. 21. and…<br />
  22. 22. Largest bank failure in the U.S. Washington Mutual, with assets of $307 billion, is closed down by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase<br />
  23. 23. Bradford & Bingley is nationalised. The British government takes control of £50 billion mortgages and loans<br />
  24. 24. Wall Street shares plunge, Dow Jones Index slumps 7% or 770 points, a record one-day point fall<br />
  25. 25. October 2008<br />The UK is on the brink of a recession<br />
  26. 26. November 2008<br />The Eurozone officially slips into recession <br />
  27. 27. December 2008<br />The U.S. recession is officially declared<br />
  28. 28. The same month…<br />
  29. 29. The FTSE 100 closes down 31.3% since the beginning of 2008…<br />
  30. 30. … the biggest annual fall in the 24 years since the index was started <br />
  31. 31. January 2009<br />The Bank of England cuts interest rates to 1.5%, the lowest level in its 315-year history<br />
  32. 32. But…<br />
  33. 33. The UK officially entered a recession<br />
  34. 34. The current budget deficit surged by over 1000% to £51.4 billion in fiscal 2008/09 from £5.2 billion in 2007/08<br />
  35. 35. June 2009<br />UK unemployment rate rises to 7.1% <br />= 2.6 million<br />+ cutbacks and ‘career holidays’<br />
  36. 36. Leadership?<br />
  37. 37. Conrad Black<br />Adam Applegarth<br />Fred Goodwin - RBS<br />Richard Madoff<br />Jeffrey Keith &quot;Jeff&quot; Skilling - Enron<br />Educated Leaders?<br />
  38. 38. MBA – Harvard Business School<br />BUT…4 years ago Enron was widely regarded as having the best talent management system and strong value set<br />So why did Trust turn to Rust?<br />
  39. 39. Senior Management at non-U.S. Companies<br />Senior Management at U.S. Companies<br />Academic Institutions<br />Consultants<br />X<br />Trust vs. last year<br />Harvard Business Review – January 2009<br />
  40. 40. … and if this wasn’t bad enough…<br />
  41. 41. 2008 was one of the worst years for natural disasters so far this decade, 235,816 people were killed<br />in 321 different disasters<br />
  42. 42. The world’s disasters in 2008 caused estimated damage of<br />$227 billion, some $136 billion of that in China<br />
  43. 43. and…<br /> Michael Jackson R.I.P<br />
  44. 44. Hopeless end or endless hope?…<br />So what’s coming?<br />
  45. 45. An increasingly complex, volatile, changing world<br />
  46. 46.
  47. 47.
  48. 48. By 2025 – 1,400 people!<br />
  49. 49. China will soon become the<br />NUMBER ONE<br />English Speaking Country in the world.<br />
  50. 50. Shifting patterns?<br />B.R.I.C.S GDP (Brazil, Russia, India & China)<br />Will match original G7 Share of Global GDP by 2040<br />
  51. 51. …even sooner 2025<br />E7 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico)willtriple GDP growth.<br />
  52. 52. Annually 1 million migrants<br />Western EuropeTheDestination of Choice?<br />Already home to 35 million foreign born. <br />
  53. 53. The 25% of India’s population with the highest IQ’s…<br />… is GREATER than the total population of the United States <br />
  54. 54. TRANSLATION:<br />India has more honours children than America has kids<br />
  55. 55. 6.8 billion population in 2009<br />8 billion population in 2025<br />
  56. 56. Over the next several decades the number of people considered to be in the “global middle class” is projected to swell from440 million to 1.2 billionor from7.6%of the world’s populationto 16.1%..<br />
  57. 57. The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50% by 2030.<br />
  58. 58. By 2025-2030, the portion of the world considered poor will shrink by about 23% but the world’s poor - still 63% of the globe’s population - stand to become relatively poorer<br />
  59. 59. The populations of more than 50 countries will increase by more than a third<br />
  60. 60. Between now and 2025…Russia, Ukraine, Italy, Eastern Europe, and Japan will see theirpopulations decline by several percent<br />
  61. 61. Today,nearly 7 out of every 10 people…<br />… in the developed world are in the traditional working years (ages 15 to 64).<br />
  62. 62. This number hasnever before been so highand, according to experts, in all likelihood will never be so high again<br />
  63. 63. Women, barely present on corporate payrolls 30 years ago, now constitute at least half the overall workforce in many developed countries<br />
  64. 64. The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010<br />
  65. 65. …did not exist in 2004<br />
  66. 66.
  67. 67.
  68. 68.
  69. 69. 1 out of 8 couples married<br />in the U.S. last year met online<br />
  70. 70. Twitter was the fastest-growing site in February 2009<br />There are over55 million monthly visits on twitter<br />
  71. 71. and overmore than 200 million active users on Facebook<br />
  72. 72. The #1 ranked country in<br />Broadband Internet Penetration is…<br />Bermuda<br />#19 The United States <br />#22 Japan <br />
  73. 73.
  74. 74. We are living in exponential times<br />
  75. 75. There are31 Billionsearches on Google every month<br />
  76. 76. In 2006, this number was2.7 Billion<br />
  77. 77.
  78. 78. The first commercial text message was sent in December 1992.<br />
  79. 79.
  80. 80. Radio38 years<br />Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million<br />
  81. 81. TV13 years<br />Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million<br />
  82. 82. Internet4 years<br />Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million<br />
  83. 83. Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million<br />iPod3 years<br />
  84. 84. Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million<br />Facebook2 years<br />
  85. 85. The number of internet devices in 1984 was 1,000<br />
  86. 86. The number of internet devices in 1992 was 1,000,000<br />
  87. 87. The number of internet devices in 2008 was 1,000,000,000<br />
  88. 88. There are about<br />540,000 words in<br />the English Language<br />
  89. 89. About 5x as many as during Shakespeare’s time<br />
  90. 90. It is estimated that a<br />week’s worth of The Times…<br />
  91. 91.
  92. 92.
  93. 93.
  94. 94.
  95. 95. For students starting our three-year University of Reading degree or Henley MBA, this means that . . .<br />
  96. 96. half of what they learn in their first year of study will be outdatedby their graduation.<br />
  97. 97. NTT Japan have successfully tested a fibre optic cable…<br />that pushes 14 trillion bits per second down a single strand of fibre.<br />
  98. 98. 2,660<br />210<br />
  99. 99.
  100. 100. By 2013, a supercomputer will be built that exceeds the computationalcapabilities of the human brain<br />super<br />2013<br />human brain. <br />
  101. 101. £500<br />
  102. 102.
  103. 103.
  104. 104. 67<br />UK<br />7<br />95<br />
  105. 105. …and 694,000songs weredownloadedillegally<br />

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