Climate Change Summit - Ben Page


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Ben Page presentation at CBI Climate Change Summit, 17 Nov 2010, London

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  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title <number>
  • Climate Change Summit - Ben Page

    1. 1. Consumers and Climate Change Ben Page, Chief Executive Ipsos MORI
    2. 2. 0 4 8 12 16 20 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 nly one person in 20 really worried Cameron’s “Vote Blue, go Green” campaign at 2006 local elections 9/11 London Bombs Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic cloud reaches northern Spain Wettest Autumn since records began – widespread flooding across the UK EC proposes carbon emission cuts of 20% by 2020 Hurricane in Kensal Rise Brown becomes PM Stern report Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Cameron becomes PM
    3. 3. 22 41 60 42 Uncertainty about the science and impacts Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that……? Many scientific experts still question if humans are contributing to climate change % Disagree % Agree I sometimes think climate change might not be as bad as people say Base: 1,039 GB adults aged 15+, interviewed f-2-f and in home, 23-29 May 2008
    4. 4. 17 20 33 27 25 26 15 14 7 9 3 4 Half of the British public are sceptical of politicians’ motives Base: Online survey, 1043 British adults aged 16-64, February 2010 % Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither / nor % Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree% % Don't know Below are a number of statements that other people have made about climate change/global warming. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of these statements? Source: Ipsos MORI / Euro RSG Politicians make a fuss about climate change in order to distract us from other issues Climate change is being used by the government as an excuse to raise taxes 50 47
    5. 5. 14 56 12 11 4 3 % Neither agree nor disagree % Strongly agree % Don’t know / no opinion %Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly disagree Base:1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January-26th March 2010 Source: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI The British public are uncertain about what the effects of climate change will be To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about climate change? It is uncertain what the effects of climate change will be 69
    6. 6. 44 30 28 38 47 43 12 14 19 3 9 8 3 2 Concern around climate change remains high.. 2005 2008 2010 How concerned, if at all, are you about climate change, sometimes referred to as ‘global warming’? Source: 2010 and 2005: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI Source: 2008 Ipsos MORI Base: 1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January-26th March 2010; 1,491 British adults, aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005 % Not at all concerned% Not very concerned% Fairly concerned% Very concerned % Don't know/No opinion
    7. 7. What about business?
    8. 8. 8 40 31 9 % Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree Public split on importance of CSR to brand choice I am more likely to choose one brand over another if I know they take their social and environmental responsibilities seriously
    9. 9. 59 21 33 43 36 1810 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 % Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree Large increase in proportion saying they try to buy Fair Trade in just three years 2008 I try to buy ‘Fair Trade’ products where possible 2005
    10. 10. Views of packaging have hardened over time  ‘Amount of packaging’ a bigger consumer concern than food miles, Fair Trade, overall carbon footprint  In the same vein, more people now agree that packaging is "a major environmental problem" 79 82 68 71 % % think food is over packaged % agree packaging is a “major environmental problem” 1997 2008
    11. 11. Plenty of evidence that short-term concerns win over ‘green’ issues ource: Advertising green products today: A view from The Futures Company July 2010
    12. 12. Interest in the general, aversion to the specific Percentage of people who… …are concerned about climate change 83% …prefer to buy environment ally friendly products 77% Source: Defra Tracking Report 2006; Green and Ethical Consumers, Mintel, 2007; British Airways …report using carbon offsetting for their flights 2% …regularly carbon offset their flights 0% …would pay more for environ- mentally friendly products 39% …claim to take action to reduce environ-mental impact of their travel* 19% * Proportion of respondents who report taking one or more of the following steps: using more environmentally friendly transport, cutting down holiday flights or carbon offsetting flights
    13. 13. Sustainability remains a key issue – but needs to link to brand choices ource: Marketing, 29/9/10 General attitudes and good intent count for little at the moment of choice in-store  Hence increasing activity being brand-focussed, not CSR in the conventional sense  We need to balance out the need for sustainability with other key goals for brands – visibility, consumer acceptance – At times there will be a conflict
    14. 14. Which behaviours? Perceptions of impact on climate change 8 4% 7% 10% 10% 11% 16% 17% 22% 34% 40% 26% 8% 7% 17% 38% 11% 33% 29% 7% Recycling Developing cleaner engines for cars se: All respondents 2,037. Fieldwork dates: 14th – 20th June 2007 Q Which of the actions on this list, if any, do you think will do the most to help reduce climate change? Avoiding creating waste in the first place Making fewer car journeys Using less electricity Taking fewer foreign holidays Walking or cycling Using public transport Buying locally-grown food People having fewer children General public Experts
    15. 15. Need legislation plus social marketing. ….to overcome the challenge of cognitive polyphasia…
    16. 16. Successful behavioural change campaigns use a mix of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing Source: Websites, press search – Publicise perils of climate change for next generation – Publicise benefits of reducing greenhouse emissions (e.g., Action Blue Sky in Hong Kong) – Make energy saving easy – Give them the tools – Invest in public transport – Identify energy- efficient devices – Discounts on energy saving light bulbs – Tax petrol and aviation fuel – Subsidise R&D into sustainable fuels – Create car pool lanes – Fines for not recycling – Ban use of CFCs and other greenhouse gases Influence Incentivise Inform Enable Enforce
    17. 17. But you can also learn from behavioural science Influence Incentivise Inform Enable Enforce – People make choices without going through a full ‘rational’ decision-making process’ – Certain innate biases pre- dispose people to short-cut decision-making processes – Applying these biases in a systematic way can make behavioural change campaigns significantly more likely to succeed
    18. 18. 1 Short-circuiting the rational decision making process Gather pertinent information Process pertinent information Calculate optimal choice Rational process ‘Rational decision’ Decide based on faulty cal- culations Decide without fully processing the facts ‘Irrational decision ’ Short- circuits of the ‘rational’ process Decide without all the data/using irrelevant data
    19. 19. Question  What percentage of African countries are members of the United Nations?
    20. 20. Evidence – anchoring Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974 Numbers shown on “roulette” wheel Mean estimate of respondents 10 65 25% 45%
    21. 21. Example bias – anchoring People’s estimates are swayed by data suggested to them beforehand, even when they know the data is irrelevant or false. Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis
    22. 22. Case study – anchoring Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US
    23. 23. Case study – anchoring! Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark
    24. 24. Example bias – Social norms Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967); Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis People tend to follow their peer group – if they see many people doing something, they aim to do it too.
    25. 25. 13% 21% 12% 2% 39% 14% Social norms - Support for collective action Strongly agree I would do more to try to stop climate change if other people did more, too Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Neither/nor Base: 2,037 British adults, 14th – 20th June 2007
    26. 26. People often stay with the status quo, even if it costs them more to do so Example bias – status quo Source: Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1991); McKinsey synthesis
    27. 27. Case study – status quo
    28. 28. Evidence – status quo Source: Benartzi and Thaler, Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving, 2001 11.6 3.5  Month 28 Month 0 In 28 months average savings increased by more than 300% Each time an employee receives a pay rise…. ….An additional 3% of his/her income is channelled into a savings scheme Average savings per employee (% of income) “Save More Tomorrow” Plan
    29. 29. You are more likely to obtain a large commitment if you obtain a small one first. Example bias – reciprocity Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis
    30. 30. Evidence – Encouraging Reciprocity Source: Influence: the psychology of persuasion, Cialdini, 2006 edition, Ipsos MORI research Ask neighbour to “watch my things” Leave without asking 2. Leave the radio to go swimming 1. Experimenter sits on beach with a radio 3. Thief tries to steal the radio 20% try to stop the thief 95% try to stop the thief 4. Test public reaction
    31. 31. Behavioural Norms you might exploit…. Decide without all the data/using irrelevant data Decide without fully processing all the facts Decide based on faulty calculations Short-circuits of rational decision-making process Reciprocity Liking Consistency Scarcity Endowment Social norms Authority Status quo Availability/ recency Choice overload Justifiability Anchoring Breakpoints Certainty preference Loss aversion Probability misassessment Regret aversion Framing/ contrast Hyperbolic discounting Mental accounting Biases False memory
    32. 32. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 AIDS awareness change in the UK Source: Health Profile of England and Wales  Number of diagnoses of gonorrhoea  Thousands, in England and Wales
    33. 33. Action across multiple fronts to reduce STIs Influence Incentivise Inform Enable Enforce BBC programming about AIDS Distribution of free condoms “Tombstone” campaign Use of numerous biases including Authority, Liking, Hyperbolic Discounting, Probability Misassessment and Social norm None
    34. 34. Social norm: James Bond and the decline in STIs in the 1980s Source: Avert; BBC; 0 1 2 3 Average Bond girls per film by actor Connery Lazenby Moore Dalton Brosnan 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
    35. 35. Three questions that need a “yes” answer Define the shift you want to see Devise the actions to deliver the shift Execute and monitor the results Do you really understand your target audience and what drives their behaviour? How are you going to define and measure success? Have you lined up the right partners to help reach and influence the target audience?
    36. 36. Bottom line – have to show consumer benefit (and nudge)  Concern is not rising…  Socially and environmentally responsible shopping appears to have plateaued and brands can no longer charge more for this  While there is an increasing expectation that brands offer such options, but need to illustrate the pay-off for consumers – Consumers want ‘fair trade’ and expect it in many ways, but they will not want to pay more for it, especially for smaller ticket items – Emotional pay-offs are important, but it needs to be more than just ‘feel good about our brand’; consumers want to know what it does for them  Still huge potential for nudging, and remember internal benefits as well – people want to do the right thing…
    37. 37.
    38. 38. Daily Mail DailyExpress The Sun The Mirror Daily Record Financial Times The Metro Other Daily TelegraphNone of these Evening Standard Daily Star The Independent The Scotsman The Guardian The Times The Herald (Glasgow) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 % pollution/environment is important issue Pollution/environment: by daily readership Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007