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Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne
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Intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le réseau de Grande-Bretagne

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par Phil Lawton, Grid Operations 2020, National Grid (UK)

par Phil Lawton, Grid Operations 2020, National Grid (UK)

Published in: Business, Technology

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  • 1. Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Integrating Renewable Energy Into the GB System Phil Lawton, Future System Operation Manager 6th September 2013
  • 2. 22 We join everything up Generators at one end – consumers at the other Directly or indirectly connecting to our networks At the centre of the industry
  • 3. 3 National Grid
  • 4. 4 The changing energy landscape Decarbonise electricity 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 Sustainability Affordability Security of supply
  • 5. 5 UK Future Energy Scenarios Scenarios: • Gone Green • Slow Progression
  • 6. 6 Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/Yr Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport
  • 7. 7 Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/Yr Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport Adoption matches available energy
  • 8. 8 Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/Yr Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport Deployment too fast: High Carbon Generation required
  • 9. 9 Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/Yr Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport Deployment too Slow: Low Carbon Generation unused
  • 10. 10 Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh/Yr Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport How big does the network need to be?
  • 11. 11 Role of the Network  Transmission Operator: Adequate capacity  System Operator: Balancing the Network Overall Balance Locational Balance
  • 12. 1212 Gas: The Challenges 2000 20102013 & beyond… Changing Gas Flows
  • 13. 1313 Gas: The Challenges 2000 20102013 & beyond… Growing interaction: Electricity to Gas
  • 14. 14 Electricity: The Challenges  Increasing variable generation and need for gas back-up  Increasing interconnection  Increasing distributed generation – appears as greater demand fluctuation  New demand patterns e.g. electric vehicle charging and space heating – large and volatile  So, need enhanced capabilities
  • 15. 15 An orderly transition to 2020/30: Reducing uncertainty and increasing flexibility Rules Commercial Tools New Assets Information Flows Work Areas
  • 16. 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Time GW Residual Demand Uncertain Wind Reliable Wind Fixed Generation Challenge 1: Obtaining additional Reserve Reserve Required Where do we get the reserve to cover the uncertainty?
  • 17. 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Time GW "Surplus" Wind Residual Demand Wind Fixed Generation Challenge 2: Starting to decarbonise heat/transport Available Low Carbon Energy Need active demand to “harvest” available energy
  • 18. 18 Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012 0 50 100 150 200 1 101 201 301 Day AverageLoadGW Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load
  • 19. 19 Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012 0 50 100 150 200 1 101 201 301 Day AverageLoadGW Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load Attempting to supply all heat from electricity will: • Require huge investment in generation, networks and heat pumps •Much of which will operate with a very low load factor
  • 20. 20 Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012 0 50 100 150 200 1 101 201 301 Day AverageLoadGW Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load Meet lower demands using low carbon electricity & heat pumps Meet peak demands by gas using existing network
  • 21. 21 Current work areas include:  Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate  System modelling to test proposals  Improved forecasting of renewable output  Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide  Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system  Demand Side Response  Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy  Involved in drafting of European Codes  Engaging with DNOs on voltage control  Future interaction between gas and electricity systems
  • 22. 22 Current work areas include:  Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate  System modelling to test proposals  Improved forecasting of renewable output  Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide  Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system  Demand Side Response  Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy  Involved in drafting of European Codes  Engaging with DNOs on voltage control  Future interaction between gas and electricity systems 1. Mean 24 Hour Ahead Forecast Performance Over The Last 6 Months Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Last Week Total Capacity 5,560 5,723 5,902 5,934 6,090 6,090 6,090 Mean Absolute Error 333 357 384 314 229 307 369 as % of Capacity 5.99% 6.23% 6.50% 5.30% 3.75% 5.05% 6.06% Mean Error 246 211 286 279 127 183 215 as % of Capacity 4.43% 3.69% 4.85% 4.71% 2.08% 3.00% 3.52% Maximum Error 1,295 1,222 1,508 2,069 1,075 1,562 845 as % of Capacity 23.30% 21.35% 25.56% 34.87% 17.66% 25.65% 13.87% RMS Error 404 432 493 431 292 398 432 as % of Capacity 7.27% 7.55% 8.35% 7.26% 4.79% 6.53% 7.09% 2. Last Week's 24 Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecast Against Actual 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 22-APR- 2013 23-APR- 2013 24-APR- 2013 25-APR- 2013 26-APR- 2013 27-APR- 2013 28-APR- 2013 MW 20% Confidence Interval 40% Confidence Interval 60% Confidence Interval 80% Confidence Interval Mean Forecast Total Metered
  • 23. 23  Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate  System modelling to test proposals  Improved forecasting of renewable output  Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide  Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system  Demand Side Response  Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy  Involved in drafting of European Codes  Engaging with DNOs on voltage control  Future interaction between gas and electricity systems Current work areas include:
  • 24. 24 We are committed to working with other stakeholders to deliver solutions OfgemDECC ENTSO GB TOs Gen Cos Manufacturers Suppliers Distributors Customer
  • 25. Questions and Discussion