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N bird   alternative accounting N bird alternative accounting Document Transcript

  • 09/06/2011 Carbon Accounting Options for Bioenergy Descriptions, Evaluations and Implications Bioenergy, Sustainability and Trade-offs: Can We Avoid Deforestation while Promoting Bioenergy? Bonn Climate Change Talks – June 2011 Side Event, June 8th 20:00 – 21:30 Metro Neil Bird, Naomi Pena, Giuliana Zanchi and Dorian Frieden Email: neil.bird@joanneum.at www.joanneum.at Elisabethstrasse 5, A-8010 Graz, AustriaISO 9001 certified What is the focus of our research? • Activity 2.2: Review of existing methods for carbon accounting for bioenergy – Use Tier 2 or Tier 3 accounting methods; – Include dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon pools – Linearization period over the first rotation and not fixed at some specific length of time, if one is using a linear approximation to the forest carbon stock dynamics. • Activity 2.3: Alternative accounting systems for bioenergy • Activity 2.1: Improved analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation www.joanneum.at Elisabethstrasse 5, A-8010 Graz, AustriaISO 9001 certified 1
  • 09/06/2011 Outline • Introduction • Alternative accounting systems • Evaluation scheme • Implications • ConclusionsISO 9001 3 certified Introduction • Existing accounting system – Bioenergy emissions = 0 in the energy sector – If there are carbon stock losses then they will be accounted for in the land use sector – Reasoning • Simple • If sustainably managed, then no life cycle carbon stock losses • Bioenergy information less certain that fossil energy consumption – Imperfect in an imperfect world • Partial participation • Timing of emissions • Re-evaluation of accounting systems – US – EPA • Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) and Title V permitting requirements to biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from bioenergy and other biogenic stationary sources. – EU Renewable Energy Directive • Implications of indirect land use changeISO 9001 4 certified 2
  • 09/06/2011 Accounting systems • Three basic approaches 1. CO2 emissions are not counted at the point of combustion (0-combustion factor) • the current system; 2. CO2 emissions are counted at the point of combustion (1-combustion factor) • biomass combusted is counted in the same way as CO2 released upon combustion of fossil fuels; and 3. CO2 emissions along the biomass-energy value chain are the responsibility of end users. • Value-chain approaches are used to determine whether bioenergy meets a regulatory requirement or to derive multiplier other than ‘0’ or ‘1’ for combustion emissions.ISO 9001 5 certified Physical greenhouse gas emissions and flows of carbon in a bioenergy system Atmosphere Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Non-CO2 Non-CO2 Growth Bioenergy Oxidation CO2 Transferred C Producer ConsumerISO 9001 6 certified 3
  • 09/06/2011 Theoretical accounting of flows Current approach (0-combustion factor) Atmosphere Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Non-CO2 Non-CO2 Growth Bioenergy Oxidation CO2 Producer ConsumerISO 9001 7 certified Theoretical accounting of flows “Tailpipe” approach (1-combustion factor) Atmosphere Fossil-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Non-CO2 Non-CO2 Bioenergy CO2 Producer ConsumerISO 9001 8 certified 4
  • 09/06/2011 Theoretical accounting of flows “POUR” approach (1-combustion factor) Atmosphere Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Non-CO2 Non-CO2 Growth Bioenergy Oxidation Flows can be estimated CO2 from changes in stocks + traded products C embodied in products Producer ConsumerISO 9001 9 certified Theoretical accounting of flows Value-chain approach Atmosphere Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Fossil-CO2 Non-CO2 Non-CO2 Growth Bioenergy Oxidation CO2 Producer ConsumerISO 9001 10 certified 5
  • 09/06/2011 Variants to the basic approaches • 0-combustion factor – Corrections • Emission correction factor • Carbon tax – Policy overlays • Limited biomass types and sources • Limited countries • 1-combustion factor – Tailpipe – Point of uptake and release (POUR) • Value chain – EU Renewable Energy Directive – US RFS2 – DeCicco approach • Reduces the double counting in value chain approaches if part of the chain is the responsibility of another entityISO 9001 11 certified Evaluation of alternative accounting systems • Subjective evaluation • General criteria – Comprehensiveness over space and time – Simplicity – Scale independenceISO 9001 12 certified 6
  • 09/06/2011 Evaluation by general criteria Rank Rank Accounting Comprehensi Scale Simplicity even comprehensive system veness* independence weights double Combustion factor = 0 approaches Yes with Unmodified Low (6) High (1) 3 4 drawbacks (1) Existing + emissions Acceptable (4) Low (5) Yes (1) 4 5 correction Existing + policy Depends on Depends: medium Yes (1) 4 6 overlay policy details (5) to low (4) Combustion factor = 1 approaches Tailpipe Medium (3) High (1) Yes (1) 1 1 Point of uptake and High (2) Medium (3) Yes (1) 2 1 release (POUR) Value-chain approaches In some versions All Very high (1) Low (5) 6 3 (6) *Assumes partial participation by countries post-2012 Overestimation of emissions improved the environmental integrity if there is partial participation The values in parentheses are the rank of each approach for each criterion.ISO 9001 13 certified Evaluation of alternative accounting systems • Stakeholder problems – Energy security and energy price increases; – Food security and higher food prices; – Loss of environmental services through the depletion of natural resources (i.e. deforestation); – Vulnerability to climate change – The need to reduce GHG emissions. – Rural economies • low forest and agricultural commodity prices; and • limited employment and income opportunities. • Impacts on stakeholder goals – Stimulate rural economies – Protect food security – Reduce greenhouse gas emissions – Preserve forestsISO 9001 14 certified 7
  • 09/06/2011 Evaluation by impacts on stakeholder goals Rank Accounting Stimulate rural Protect food Reduce GHG Rank Preserve forests stimulation system economies security emissions even weights double Combustion factor = 0 approaches Unmodified High (1) Low (8) Low (9) Low (8) 9 7 Existing + Higher than Lower than Depends on Depends on emissions unmodified 8 8 unmodified (4) mandates (7) mandates (6) correction (7) Depends on Depends on Existing + Selective (5) Uncertain (3) programme programme 7 6 acceptable lands details (7) details (6) Existing + acceptable High (1) High (1) High (1) High (1) 1 1 trading partners Combustion factor = 1 approaches Tailpipe Low (9) High (1) High (1) Low (8) 6 8 Low in the short POUR* High (1) Low (8) High (1) 4 3 term (5) Value-chain approaches EU Renewable Depends on Depends on Medium (6) Medium (4) 5 5 Energy Directive mandates (5) mandates (3) Depends on Depends on US RFS2 High (1) High (1) 2 2 mandates (5) mandates (3) Depends on Depends on structure of DeCicco-type structure of cap- High (1) Likely high (3) 3 4 cap-and-trade and-trade (5) (3) *Assumes a a market mechanism to transfer credits for uptake to debits for emissionsISO 9001 15 certified Evaluation of alternative accounting systems Accounting Rank Rank Combined system comprehensive stimulation rank double weight double weight 0-combustion factor approaches Unmodified 4 7 7 Existing + emissions correction 5 8 9 Existing + acceptable biomass types 6 6 8 and sources Existing + acceptable trading 6 1 3 partners 1-combustion factor approaches Tailpipe 1 8 6 POUR 1 3 1 Value-chain and consumer-based approaches EU Renewable Energy Directive 3 5 5 US RFS2 3 2 2 DeCicco type 3 4 3ISO 9001 16 certified 8
  • 09/06/2011 Implications • Timing of emissions • Location of emissions • Full land use change model – Direct and indirect land use change – GLOBIOM (Havlík, P et al, 2011) – Global biofuel demand to 2030 • 60% 1st generation • 40% 2nd generation – Short-rotation forestry on agricultural land – Include dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon – Pessimistic modelISO 9001 17 certified LUC model comparisons LUC GHG emissions (g CO2eq/MJ) Corn ethanol Sugarcane ethanol Rapeseed  Soybean  200 biodiesel biodiesel 150 100 GLOBIOM 60% 1st 50 40% 2nd 0 IFPRI BAU 2020 IFPRI BAU 2020 IFPRI BAU 2020 IFPRI BAU 2020 Lywood Lywood Lywood Lywood CARB CARB CARB IFPRI Trade lib. 2020 Tipper et al IFPRI Trade lib. 2020 Tipper et al IFPRI Trade lib. 2020 Tipper et al IFPRI Trade lib. 2020 EPA 2017  EPA 2017  EPA 2022 EPA 2017 EPA 2022 EPA 2022 Hertel et al Searchinger et al ‐50 ‐100 ‐150 ‐200 From: Berndes G., Bird N., and Cowie A. 2010. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. IEA Bioenergy Strategic Paper. IEA Bioenergy:ExCo:2010:03. Available at:ISO 9001 http://www.ieabioenergy.com/LibItem.aspx?id=6770 18 certified 9
  • 09/06/2011 Implications Timing of emissions Emissions from Fossil Fuels and Biofuels AgriLand Option 14000 12000 Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Living biomass DWLSOC Non-LUC Fossil fuels 60% 1st & 40% 2ndISO 9001 19 certified Implications Location of emissions Emissions by Region under Different Accounting Systems Low Default Values, Baseline Scenario, AgriLand Option 1000 800 Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq) 600 400 200 0 AFR CPA EEU FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS WEU -200 Fossil fuels IPCC POUR Value-chain Abbreviations: AFR = sub-Saharan Africa, CPA = centrally planned Asia, EEU = Central and Eastern Europe, FSUISO 9001 = Former Soviet Union, LAM = Latin America, MEA = Middle East and North Africa, NAM = North America, PAO = 20 certified Pacific OECD, PAS = Other Pacific Asia, SAS = South Asia, WEU = Western Europe. 10
  • 09/06/2011 Conclusions • Alternatives to the current accounting system for bioenergy are being contemplated • Bioenergy accounting systems fall into three types: – Bioenergy has no emission in the energy sector (0-combustion factor) – Bioenergy has an emission in the energy sector (1-combustion factor) – Bioenergy emissions follow the value chain • There are advantages and disadvantages of all three and the choice depends on evaluation criteria – 0-combustion factor • Simple, • Comprehensive (if all parties are involved), • Promotes bioenergy – 1-combustion factor • More complicated • Comprehensive (or environmentally conservative) • Does not promote bioenergy (may stimulate rural economy directly) – Value-chain • Most complicated, • Most comprehensive • Tends not promote bioenergyISO 9001 21 certified Conclusions (continued) • Implications – Timing of emissions • Biofuels may not reduce emissions when timing is considered – Location of emissions • Changing the accounting system alters the mitigation responsibility by nations – Partial participation • Reality ?ISO 9001 22 certified 11
  • 09/06/2011 Future Publications • Improved analysis of the potential of sustainable forest- based bioenergy for climate change mitigation – Include emissions from dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon – Include sensitivity analysis of assumptions – Impacts of alternative accounting approaches – Include time series of emissions • Overview of existing liquid biofuels for transportation technologies • Emission balances of first and second generation biofuels: case studies for Africa, Mexico and Indonesia – Life Cycle Assessment using BioGrace • local factors for non-LUC emissions • Global LUC emissionsISO 9001 23 certified Thank you for your attention To download publications: http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/bioenergy/_ref/research/output/published-document.htmISO 9001 certified 12