Latest developments in climate
modelling:
Vicky Pope
October 2013

© Crown copyright Met Office
Seamless prediction
Climate

Decadal

Confidence
boundary

Analysis of past weather
observations to manage
climate risks
E...
The big picture:
Models for global climate change and
mitigation

© Crown copyright Met Office
Climate models
Used in IPCC AR4 2007
Climate models
Integrated Assessment Models
Impact models

People

© Crown copyright ...
Earth System Models
Used by some in IPCC AR5 2013
Feedbacks

People

© Crown copyright Met Office

Emissions

Atmospheric
...
The global carbon cycle...
Why is it so important?

© Crown copyright Met Office
Vegetation absorbs and releases
carbon
• “photosynthesis” absorbs
CO2 from the atmosphere,
and turns it into carbon in
the...
Vegetation absorbs and releases
carbon
• “photosynthesis” absorbs
CO2 from the atmosphere,
and turns it into carbon in
the...
Vegetation absorbs and releases
carbon
• “photosynthesis” absorbs
CO2 from the atmosphere,
and turns it into carbon in
the...
Vegetation absorbs and releases
carbon
CO2

• “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2
from the atmosphere, and turns it
into carbon i...
Large scale view
• Very large amounts of carbon in…
• Very large amounts of carbon out
• In long term, these
balance

© Cr...
Ocean carbon cycle
• Also absorbs carbon
• Sea water dissolves carbon
• Plankton photosynthesise and/or eat each other

© ...
Ocean carbon cycle
• Large amounts of CO2 in
• And out

• In long term, these balance

© Crown copyright 2007
Carbon cycle “protection”
• Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half
of our emissions
CO2 emissions

CO2 grow...
Carbon cycle “protection”
• Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half
of our emissions
CO2 emissions

CO2 grow...
Balancing the carbon
What we emit…

100
Balancing the carbon
What we emit…

100

Must go somewhere

=

50
25
atmosphere

25

land

ocean
Balancing the carbon
What we emit…

100

Must go somewhere

If these go down due to
climate change…

=

50
25
atmosphere

...
Balancing the carbon
What we emit…

Must go somewhere
This must go up

100

If these go down due to
climate change…

=

50...
Balancing the carbon
For given emissions,
carbon cycle
feedback means:
100

- More CO2 stays in
atmosphere

=

50

>50

at...
© Crown copyright Met Office

National Academy of Science, 2011
The local picture:
Models for regional detail and adaptation

© Crown copyright Met Office
“I need hardly repeat, Sir, what has
been so often explained, that the
‘forecasts’ are expressions of
probabilities – and ...
10-year Vision:
Integrated weather and climate prediction
for estimating hazards and risks

A number of global
predictions...
Moving from uncertainty to
probabilities/likelihoods
UKCP09

Single
projection

Summer Rainfall 2080’s

UKCIP02

Very unli...
UKCP09: The first step on a long road...
Significant step forwards:
• First to quantify uncertainties and provide probabil...
Storm-resolving forecasts:
1800 5th – 1500 6th Sep 2008

Our 3 day forecasts are as good as our 1 day forecasts were 20 ye...
Improved rainfall over and around
mountains and hills in 1.5km
forecast model gauge observations and model forecasts
Rain
...
Future change in the 1.5km model

• First climate change experiments with a
convection-permitting have now been
completed
...
Exploitation of the 1.5km model results
Storms

Water

How will small-scale intense
(convective) storms change?

How will ...
Exploitation of the 1.5km model results
Storms

Water

How will small-scale intense
(convective) storms change?

How will ...
Questions?

© Crown copyright Met Office
Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

548 views

Published on

This presentation was given at an IPCC event in Cardiff in October 2013

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
548
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

  1. 1. Latest developments in climate modelling: Vicky Pope October 2013 © Crown copyright Met Office
  2. 2. Seamless prediction Climate Decadal Confidence boundary Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks Eg. Agriculture: this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop failure risk. Predicting routine and hazardous weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings. Monthly to decadal predictions informs probability of drought, cold, heat. Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment Public, emergency response, international disaster risk reduction © Crown copyright Met Office Seasonal 1-month 1-week Days Hours Now Past climate Supporting decision making Forecast lead-time Global and regional climate predictions. Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resurces, heat stress, crops, infrastructure.
  3. 3. The big picture: Models for global climate change and mitigation © Crown copyright Met Office
  4. 4. Climate models Used in IPCC AR4 2007 Climate models Integrated Assessment Models Impact models People © Crown copyright Met Office Emissions Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Impacts
  5. 5. Earth System Models Used by some in IPCC AR5 2013 Feedbacks People © Crown copyright Met Office Emissions Atmospheric Composition Climate Change Impacts
  6. 6. The global carbon cycle... Why is it so important? © Crown copyright Met Office
  7. 7. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation © Crown copyright 2007 CO2
  8. 8. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” © Crown copyright 2007 CO2 CO2
  9. 9. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation CO2 CO2 • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” • Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil • LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil © Crown copyright 2007 “litter”
  10. 10. Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon CO2 • “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation CO2 • The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere • “plant respiration” • Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil • LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil • Decomposed by bacteria/microbes and released as CO2 back to the atmosphere • “soil respiration” © Crown copyright 2007 “litter” CO2
  11. 11. Large scale view • Very large amounts of carbon in… • Very large amounts of carbon out • In long term, these balance © Crown copyright 2007
  12. 12. Ocean carbon cycle • Also absorbs carbon • Sea water dissolves carbon • Plankton photosynthesise and/or eat each other © Crown copyright 2007
  13. 13. Ocean carbon cycle • Large amounts of CO2 in • And out • In long term, these balance © Crown copyright 2007
  14. 14. Carbon cycle “protection” • Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions CO2 emissions CO2 growth in the atmosphere © Crown copyright 2007
  15. 15. Carbon cycle “protection” • Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions CO2 emissions CO2 growth in the atmosphere Warm years mean more CO2 © Crown copyright 2007
  16. 16. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100
  17. 17. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100 Must go somewhere = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
  18. 18. Balancing the carbon What we emit… 100 Must go somewhere If these go down due to climate change… = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
  19. 19. Balancing the carbon What we emit… Must go somewhere This must go up 100 If these go down due to climate change… = 50 25 atmosphere 25 land ocean
  20. 20. Balancing the carbon For given emissions, carbon cycle feedback means: 100 - More CO2 stays in atmosphere = 50 >50 atmosphere - We will see greater climate change
  21. 21. © Crown copyright Met Office National Academy of Science, 2011
  22. 22. The local picture: Models for regional detail and adaptation © Crown copyright Met Office
  23. 23. “I need hardly repeat, Sir, what has been so often explained, that the ‘forecasts’ are expressions of probabilities – and not dogmatic predictions.” Admiral Robert Fitzroy, 1863 “… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather” Edward Lorenz, 1963 © Crown copyright Met Office
  24. 24. 10-year Vision: Integrated weather and climate prediction for estimating hazards and risks A number of global predictions at ~20km with lead times of days to years: Large-scale weather © Crown copyright Met Office A smaller number of regional predictions at ~1km: Local weather Probability of local hazard: Impacts
  25. 25. Moving from uncertainty to probabilities/likelihoods UKCP09 Single projection Summer Rainfall 2080’s UKCIP02 Very unlikely to be less than (10%) Central estimate (50%) Very unlikely to be more than (90%)
  26. 26. UKCP09: The first step on a long road... Significant step forwards: • First to quantify uncertainties and provide probability distribution functions • First to include feedbacks and uncertainties from carbon cycle But…… • No wind or snow variables, only limited information on extremes – but more could be extracted from the regional climate model ensembles • No account of the current state of the climate system © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office
  27. 27. Storm-resolving forecasts: 1800 5th – 1500 6th Sep 2008 Our 3 day forecasts are as good as our 1 day forecasts were 20 years ago. © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Frames at 10min intervals
  28. 28. Improved rainfall over and around mountains and hills in 1.5km forecast model gauge observations and model forecasts Rain 12 km Model orography 12km 1 km Case study: Carlisle flood, Jan 2005 © Crown copyright Met Office 4 km 1 km
  29. 29. Future change in the 1.5km model • First climate change experiments with a convection-permitting have now been completed • For first time we can examine future changes in heavy rainfall at the hourly timescale • 1.5km model shows large increases in heavy rain in summer, which is very different to the driving 12km model. • 12km RCM underestimates heavy rain in summer, and shows little change in the future. • Both models show similar increases in heavy rain in winter. © Crown copyright Met Office
  30. 30. Exploitation of the 1.5km model results Storms Water How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change? How will flooding, water resources... Change? Extremes How will the risk of risk of extreme events change? 1.5km model results Accuracy What are the strengths and weaknesses of current models? © Crown copyright Met Office Improvement How can models be improved?
  31. 31. Exploitation of the 1.5km model results Storms Water How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change? How will flooding, water resources... Change? Extremes How will the risk of risk of extreme events change? What else? What would help you? 1.5km model results Accuracy What are the strengths and weaknesses of current models? © Crown copyright Met Office Improvement How can models be improved?
  32. 32. Questions? © Crown copyright Met Office

×