Corporate slide masterWelsh GovernmentEmission Reduction Performance  With guidelines for corporate presentationsIndicator...
Contents• Background   – Climate Change Strategy for Wales   – Targets   – Emission Reduction Delivery Plan• Emission Redu...
Why do we need indicators?• Climate Change Strategy for Wales (2010) set two high level  targets for emission reductions i...
How will WG achieve emission reduction                  targets?•   Emission Reduction Delivery Plan published    alongsid...
Emission Reduction Performance            Indicators• The emission reduction performance indicators have been  developed t...
What is an indicator?• Environment Indicators are     • Environment Indicators are                                   gener...
Indicator structure• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’                       Sector carbon dioxide equivalent...
Tier One• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’                           Sector carbon dioxide equivalent       ...
Tier two• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’                                   Activity Data          Tier Two...
Tier Three• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’                                                     Policy     ...
Emission Reduction Performance            Indicators• Total of 52 indicators across all sectors• Data gaps have been ident...
WG and UK policies/measureExample: Transport policy measures and estimated savingsTable 1: Climate Change Strategy Policie...
Indicator                               Table 2: Transport sector indicators (TI)                                         ...
Presenting source data      • Example: transport indicator TI8 Number of passenger bus journeys                           ...
Indicator status                                                                                                         ...
Contextual factors• There are a variety of external factors which also drive variations in  emissions• Can affect or overr...
Challenges, gaps and further             development• Not the end of the process• Challenges and gaps   – Defining improve...
Publication and dissemination• Indicators were outlined in the First Annual Progress Report in  March 2012• Reporting agai...
Thanks you for you attentionThe team welcome the Commission’s input in the continued  development of the Emission Reductio...
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Cyflwyniad gan Ross Hunter yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 1 Hydref 2012. Presentation given by Ross Hunter at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 1st October 2012.

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  • Sectors Agriculture and LULUCF Business Public Residential Transport Waste
  • An indicator is not a absolute measure
  • GHGI lacks sensitivity to impacts of many policy measures. Therefore a separate measure of progress is required (tier 3)
  • How activity data that is combined to compile the inventory can be applied to individual policies
  • Not generally linked to GHGI emisssion but provide an indicatiing of the direction of policies that the GHGI would not be sensitive enough to pick up
  • Overview of the number of indicators being developed. 69 indicators if current gaps filled
  • Explain policy and indicator codes
  • Policy – indicator – status WT8 drill down into the data which underpin indicator status
  • Building the indicators = Source data – trend line – indicator performance Using the indicators - visa versa (users both policy and public will first view high level indicator and drill down into data as required)
  • Current working method is to use annual change. Two users of indicators Public – communicate Policy makers – indicate progress and need for further action Propose to provide contextual information behind outline indicator status
  • There are a variety of external factors driving emissions which will not necessarily result in emissions reductions occurring as forecast. This could include things such as milder winters or an economic downturn. In addition, current Welsh Government analysis assumes policies deliver emission savings equally (on a linear basis) from their implementation to 2020. This is unlikely to be the case and the contextual factors will help provide a way of tracking these issues until more evidence is available.
  • Last slide – round off.
  • Transcript of "Cyflwyniad gan Ross Hunter yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 1 Hydref 2012. Presentation given by Ross Hunter at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 1st October 2012."

    1. 1. Corporate slide masterWelsh GovernmentEmission Reduction Performance With guidelines for corporate presentationsIndicatorsComisiwn Cymru ar y Newid HinsawddClimate Change Commission for Wales 23rd Meeting1-2 October 2012, Bangor UniversityDr Ross HunterRoss.Hunter@wales.gsi.gov.ukDr Simon BaldwinSimon.Baldwin@wales.gsi.gov.ukScience Advice Branch
    2. 2. Contents• Background – Climate Change Strategy for Wales – Targets – Emission Reduction Delivery Plan• Emission Reduction Performance Indicators – What is an indicator – Indicator framework• Further development and gaps• Presentation and communication
    3. 3. Why do we need indicators?• Climate Change Strategy for Wales (2010) set two high level targets for emission reductions in Wales – 3% target Commitment to reduce emissions within areas of devolved competence by 3% each year from 2011, against a baseline of average emissions over the period 2006-2010. – 40% target Commitment to reduce all Welsh emissions by 40% from 1990 levels by 2020 in line with UK target
    4. 4. How will WG achieve emission reduction targets?• Emission Reduction Delivery Plan published alongside the Climate Change Strategy for Wales• Highlights actions that Welsh Government will take to help deliver emission reductions• For each sector key UK and Welsh policies that are likely to deliver emissions savings were identified and where possible, expected emission savings were calculated• The CCS for Wales committed to monitor and evaluate progress against emission reduction policies
    5. 5. Emission Reduction Performance Indicators• The emission reduction performance indicators have been developed to – provide a measure of progress against the policies and measures identified within the Climate Change Strategy Delivery Plan for Emission Reduction – supplement the overall tracking of the 3% target for Wales• Indicator suite was developed 2011-12 in consultation with key WG sector policy/evidence leads
    6. 6. What is an indicator?• Environment Indicators are • Environment Indicators are generally not – An indication of – A direct measure of progress progress linking policy – A measure of direction delivery to GHG of travel emission reductions – Used to show visually the condition of a policy – A trigger for further action
    7. 7. Indicator structure• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’ Sector carbon dioxide equivalent Tier One emissions CO2e emission estimates consistent with the 3% target Activity Data Tier Two Activity data used to compile the Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Wales Policy Tier Three Monitors things Welsh Government is actively doing to reduce GHG emissions. Provide an indication of how individual actions and policies are performing
    8. 8. Tier One• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’ Sector carbon dioxide equivalent Tier One emissions CO2e emission estimates consistent with the 3% target • One per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 1 (TI1) • GHG emissions in areas of Transport sector GHG emissions devolved competence • Measured against 2006-10 baseline Policy Indicator Data Transport sector GHG emissions Baseline (2006-2009 average) 8 Emissions in Mt CO equivalent 7 Transport 6 WT1- 2 5 All sector GHG TI1 1  11 4 emissions 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009
    9. 9. Tier two• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’ Activity Data Tier Two Activity data used to compile the Greenhouse Gas Inventory for Wales • Handful per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 2 (TI2) • Activity data Total distance travelled by road vehicles • Measured against 2006-10 baseline Policy Indicator Data All motor vehicles Baseline (2006-2009 average) WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. 30 billion vehicle kilometres 28 WT2 Smarter Choices. Total distance 26 travelled - 2  24 Travel planning and provision WT3 of personalised travel Vehicle kms 22 20 information. 18 0 2006 2007 2008 2009
    10. 10. Tier Three• Indicators divided into three distinct ‘tiers’ Policy Tier Three Monitors things Welsh Government is actively doing to reduce GHG emissions. Provide an indication of how individual actions and policies are performing • Many per sector e.g. Transport Indicator 5(TI5) • Not directly linked Percentage of people travelling to work whose main to emission mode of travel to work is cycling or walking • Measured against 2006-10 baseline Policy Indicator Data WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. Total % walking or cycling Baseline (2006-2009 average) Percentage of 14% WT2 Smarter Choices. people travelling People walking or cycling - % 12% 10% WT3 Travel planning and provision of personalised travel information. to work whose 8% main mode of TI5 3  6% WT4 Developing a series of strategic modal interchanges. travel to work is 4% 2% WT5 Promotion of eco-driving. cycling or 0% walking 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 WT6 Promotion and support for walking and cycling.
    11. 11. Emission Reduction Performance Indicators• Total of 52 indicators across all sectors• Data gaps have been identified where policies identified in the Delivery plan have no corresponding indicator Sector Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Gaps Agriculture and LULUCF 2 7 3 2 Business 1 1 1 9 Public 1 1 5 5 Residential 1 1 6 - Transport 1 3 11 - Waste 1 5 1 1 7 18 27 17
    12. 12. WG and UK policies/measureExample: Transport policy measures and estimated savingsTable 1: Climate Change Strategy PoliciesNo. Policy Estimated Savings - MtCO2e in 2020WT1 Sustainable Travel Centres. 0.22WT2 Smarter Choices. No additional savings for theseWT3 Travel planning and provision of personalised travel information. policies to avoid double countingWT4 Developing a series of strategic modal interchanges.WT5 Promotion of eco-driving. 0.03WT6 Promotion and support for walking and cycling. 0.0005WT7 Investment in rail services. 0.004WT8 Investment in buses. 0.001WT9 Improving traffic management on the strategic road network. 0.02WT10 Supporting the freight industry to reduce emissions. 0.01WT11 Alternative fuels infrastructure. No direct reduction expected yet The Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport Low Carbon Transport: AUKT1 0.96 Greener Future.UKT2 Fuel Duty increases 0.11
    13. 13. Indicator Table 2: Transport sector indicators (TI) Indicator Tier Policy: Indicator: Status: number: :Status WT1-11 WT1-3, WT8 Transport sector GHG emissions Total distance travelled - Vehicle kms TI1 TI2 1 2   WT7 Fuel Consumption - Rail TI3 2  WT10 Fuel Consumption - Rail Freight TI4 2  Percentage of people travelling to work Clear improvement WT1-3, whose main mode of travel to work is TI5 3  WT6 cycling or walking WT1-3, Rail passenger journeys TI6 3  WT7 WT1-3, Train user satisfaction TI7 3  Stable or no clear trend WT7 WT1-3, Number of bus passenger journeys TI8 3  WT8 WT1-3, Bus Travel Satisfaction TI9 3  WT8 Clear deterioration WT8 Average loading of buses in Wales TI10 3  Traffic volumes of HGVs versus freight WT10 TI11 3  lifted in Wales Proportion of passenger rail network in WT7 TI12 3  Wales electrified Baseline or insufficient UK1 Average new car CO2 emissions UKT1a 3  data Ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEV) UK1 registered for the first time, United UKT1b 3  Kingdom UK2 Total UK Road Transport Fuel Sales UKT2 3 
    14. 14. Presenting source data • Example: transport indicator TI8 Number of passenger bus journeys Indicator: Number of bus passenger journeys Tier: 3 Status: Stable or no clear trend Relevant policies WT1-3, WT8 Bus passenger journeys Baseline (2006-2009 average) 140 Millions YearPassenger journeys (millions) 120 100 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 80 60 Bus passenger journeys 118 120 125 117 40 20 Baseline (2006- 0 2009 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 average) 120 120 120 120 Data Welsh Transport Statistics 2010 source http://new.wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/publications/tra
    15. 15. Indicator status  Clear improvement  Stable or no clear trend• How do we measure progress?  Clear deterioration• Number of possible methods  Baseline or insufficient data– Annual change Pros Cons •Easy to use and understand •Does not account for long term trend •Indicates annual progress– Trend gradient over time Pros Cons •Takes account of long term trends •No established method •Complicated to define •Does not take account of short term progress• Other key question: Does progress need to be below baseline? How is ‘clear’ change quantified robustly?
    16. 16. Contextual factors• There are a variety of external factors which also drive variations in emissions• Can affect or override the impacts of policies• Due to this influence we need to incorporate contextual factors into the indicator framework• Where relevant we will list the contextual factors specific to each sector
    17. 17. Challenges, gaps and further development• Not the end of the process• Challenges and gaps – Defining improvement • What is clear improvement? – Data gaps • Lack of available data • Baseline issues• Further development – This year revisiting indicators with policy leads - specifically focusing on data gap. – E.g. Working with Glastir monitoring and evaluation contractors to produce tangible tier 3 data for Agri/LULUCF. High level
    18. 18. Publication and dissemination• Indicators were outlined in the First Annual Progress Report in March 2012• Reporting against progress in Second Annual Progress Report in autumn 2013• Due to high number of indicators and desire to present all underlying data, methods and sources we are currently developing a web platform to host on Welsh Government website .• This will allow users to drill down into data behind indicator traffic light system and graphs.
    19. 19. Thanks you for you attentionThe team welcome the Commission’s input in the continued development of the Emission Reduction Performance Indicators.

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