5 - PREDICTIONS FOR WALES TO 2080 The best predictions we have for Wales’ Climate up to 2080. These are: While you are reading these I’d like to ask some questions can our institutions and the economy cope with the scale and pace of change as a result of these predictions? can our transport, energy, waste and built infrastructure cope with the physical changes to the environment as a result of climate change and increased temperature? are our health and social services seeing climate change as a long term strategic management issue? A futures approach - horizon scanning- backcasting are techniques which can help decision makers in Wales develop their thinking, base there response on available science and develop policy which is resilient to future change. UKCIP08 data is going to help us a lot in making these impacts more tangible for decision makers at the strategic level - but also the politicians and the middle managers in our organisations, who often make decisions that leave a very long legacy in terms of development.
Increasing levels of globalisation making national (and local) economies vulnerable and heightening inequalities. Increasing scarcity of resources that we rely on (oil, water, land and food) as demand increases from a growing population, fossil fuels run out and climate change impacts are felt. Increased competition and conflict. Technological change and innovation influencing how communities, networks, individuals and organisations interact. Increasingly powerful role of the individual on public attitudes, values, expectations and behaviours enhanced by IT. Higher expectations for quality of life, goods and services. Secularism, materialism, capitalism will be dominant with a decline in civic values , with the individuals relationship with the state consumerist.
Climate Change Adaptationin Local GovernmentA question of leadership?NETHERWOODSUSTAINABLE FUTURESSustainable Development &Climate Change Consultancyalan.firstname.lastname@example.orgDr. Alan NetherwoodNetherwood Sustainable FuturesHonorary Research FellowSchool of Planning & Geographyalan.email@example.com
What we are going to cover• WLGA Climate Adaptation work since2008 - outcomes• the current ‘climate’ in local government• case studies – where has the leadershipcome from?• toolkit• observations on ‘landscape’• good leadership on climate adaptation• bad leadership on climate adaptation• learning from civic leadership onadaptation elsewhere
Changing Climate: Changing Places Project – 2008-11AIM - Climate Adaptation Planning and ResiliencePARTNERS - Welsh Local Government Association, EnvironmentAgency Wales, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Countryside Councilfor Wales, University of Glamorgan, Welsh Assembly Government.4 Unitary Authorities: Cardiff, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Rhondda CynonTaffConsultancy support from Netherwood Sustainable Futures.OUTPUTS1.Local Climate Impacts Profiles (LCLIPS) x42.BACLIAT (Business Areas Impacts)x 43.Risk Management in Council’s and LSBs4.Action Planning for Adaptation - mainstreaming – no separateplans5.Learningfor 22 Authorities, 3 National Parks and Police and FireServices6.Inform WAG requirements under Climate Change Act 2008
2008-11 Changing Climate Changing Places PilotCardiffFlintshireGwyneddRhondda Cynon Taff& training in Brecon Beacons, Powys2010-12Denbighshire LSBTorfaen Local Service BoardSwansea Economic Regeneration Partnership2012-13 ‘fast track’ authorities on Parts 1& 2CaerphillyCarmarthenshire LSBMonmouthshire LSBPowysContinued Support 2012-13 on Parts 1 & 2 & 3CardiffFlintshireTorfaenWrexhamSwanseaBridgendVale of GlamorganNorth East and South East Wales Regional PilotsWLGA Learning onClimate Adaptation
Engaging with leaders at all levels?Local AuthorityBrecon Beacons NPABridgend CBCCaerphilly CBCCarmarthenshire CouncilCardiff CCDenbighshireFlintshire CBCGwynedd CCMonmouthshire CBCPowys CCRhondda Cynon TaffCity & County SwanseaTorfaen CBCVale of GlamorganWrexhamN, Wales Internal AuditInvolving….Senior Management and MembersSenior ManagementEnvironment PartnershipLocal Service BoardRisk ManagersLocal Service BoardLSB Asset and Transport Managers CCRA forTransport Partners, Social Services & Scrutiny CommitteeLocal Service BoardMember and Senior ManagementHeatwave Action Plan PartnersAsset Managers, Economic Regeneration PartnersLocal Service BoardMembersSenior Management and Member TrainingInternal AuditorsBut the capacity building task is hugebecause………
…..Local Authorities are incredibly complexand the potential risks and adaptations are tooRegeneration & Economy Planning & Regulatory Leisure & Recreation Education & Libraries Social Services Transport PropertyEconomic Development Development Control Recreation Facilities Schools organisation Elderly Highways Infrastructure Estates /Land StrategyRural Development Plan Building Control Culture Lifelong learning Mental Health Maintenance Asset ManagementInfrastructure Design Local Develop Plan Events Outdoor Education Residential Care Engineering Housing unitsCity Centre Management Minerals Tourism Schools Catering Day Care Traffic Management Industrial unitsLocal Training & Enterprise Biodiversity Country Parks School Transport Indpendent Living Bridges Commercial unitsBusiness Support Woodland Sports Development Libraries Learning Disability Sewers FarmsTourism Tree Pres Orders Venues Archives Asylum Parking Day centresCommunity Regeneration Coed Cymru Arts & Theatre Registrars Youth Service Hydrological modelling Community CentresAgriculture & Food Emergency Planning Grounds Maintenance Health Promotion Early Years Travel Plan Leisure CentresVoluntary Sector Trading Standards Facilities Management Child Protection Reg.Transport Strategy VenuesTowns & Villages Consumer Protection Adoption Public Transport LibrariesStrategic Sites Environmental Health Child Disability School Transport Design & MaintainEU Structural Funds Food Safety Bereavement Services Community Transport FacilitiesFleet Management One-stop shopsCountry ParksWaste SitesCemeteriesFinance Housing Environment Legal, Scrutiny, Democratic Corporate Services Corporate PlanningRisk & Audit Strategy Biodiversity Legal (Prop, Comm, Proc) ICT Infrastructure CEORevenue Benefits Shoreline Management Democratic Services Human Resources Local Service BoardProcurement Assisted Living Waste Sites Improvement Training PartnershipsContracts Maintenance Recycling Scrutiny Health & Safety ImprovementSchools Private Sector Public Protection Electoral Services Communications Emergency planningMajor Projects Public Sector Pollution Control Strategy Media Corporate PlanPensions Energy Efficiency Cleaning Services Member Services Customer Contact Risk ManagementCouncil Tax Homelessness Environmental Health Business Contact Voluntary SectorTreasury Report Travellers Waste TreatmentMajor Projects Affordable CountrysideInvestment Empty Homes DrainageHousing Benefit Food Waste
…..airtime for Climate Adaptation is limitedas the local government agenda deals with‘proximate’ issues:Public sectors age ofausterity could last 20yearsThehead of theLocalGovernment Associationwarnsthat economic pressuresmean public services, andthoseusing them, arelikely tofacetough timesfor thenexttwo decades20 years of austerityWelfare ReformSocial ServicesHousingLocal economic downturnTransport InfrastructurePublic service reviewBudget squeeze
A reminder of the business case forworking on climate leadership in localgovernment?local government responsible for £8.6billion (Capital 1.1 Revenue 7.5) spend in2011 ( of £18 Billion Total)1 in 8 jobs in Wales is in localgovernment (150,000)Delivers services to 3 million peopleHelps deliver £3.8 billion EU fundingInfrastructureHealthEmploymentHousingLandscape1254 democratically elected membersrepresenting communities which will beimpacted by climate change.
Flintshire – Assets & Transport InfrastructureProcess:LCLIPRisk AssessmentLSB Workshops: Assets, Transport,Business, Health (3 years)Adaptation:Adaptation highlighted meaningfully incorporate plan.Asset and Transport Managers in continuingworking groups.Interventions identified:•Monitoring, processes and systems•Discourse•Role of Local Resilience ForaLeadership: Head of Transport & Assets
Cardiff – Risk Management & PerformanceProcess:LCLIPRisk AssessmentLSB Workshops: Risk Managers (3years)Adaptation:Climate adaptation on its corporate andcommunity risk registers which requiresrisk reduction actions to be identified byServices.Cardiff now has Key PerformanceIndicator for climate resilience in theirCorporate Plan. Three year cycle –Infrastructure – Service Continuity –Strategy.Leadership – Head of PerformanceManagement
Torfaen LSB – Public SectorClimate Adaptation FrameworkProcess:LSB Workshops: Awareness: Risk: Systems:Adaptation Planning (3 years)Adaptation:A Public Sector Climate Adaptation Frameworkfor collaborative working•Evidence Base•Business Case•Engagement•Decision Making•ImplementationLeadership – Assistant CEO and LSBExecutive
Swansea– Climate Adaptation as part ofForesightingProcess:Adaptation explored as part of EconomicRegeneration; Finance; Social Services;Single Integrated Plan discourse on futuretrends.2040 scenarios at Ward LevelAdaptation:Informing discourse at local and regionallevelRecommendations on longer termapproach to financeExternalities to be considered in SingleIntegrated PlanSenior Training and leadership programmeto include 2040 scenariosLeadership – CEO and Lead Member
Caerphilly – Climate Adaptation& Rural EconomyProcess:•Desk based review of key impacts onCaerphilly’s rural economy•Interviews with farmers, landowners,businesses.•Recommendations on interventions andtraining.•Autumn ‘workshop’ to disseminateAdaptation:Recommendations on capacity building to bedeveloped:•Land management•Crop production•Livestock management•Farm risk assessmentsLeadership – RDP and SD Team
Carmarthenshire – County Wide RiskAssessmentProcess:Risk seminars to prime LSB partnersTemplate to engage partners and Councilservices to ID RisksCollationRegular reports to LSBAdaptation:Shared knowledge portalPriorities – assets, accessibilityRisk registersCommunity ProfilesEngagement – councillors and communitiesLeadership – CEO, Leader, Chair of LSB
Toolkit – transferable and need disseminatingLocal Climate Impact ProfilesRisk Assessment TemplatesRisk ‘registers’Corporate Plan ReviewCorporate KPI GuidanceAsset Management GuidanceEconomic Regeneration Partnership ReviewTraining Presentations to engage – members,services, officers and partnersCCETK – finance toolGreen Economy Matrix2040 Ward ScenariosPublic Sector Climate Adaptation FrameworkSingle Needs Assessment Review
The regional question…..where is the leadership going to come from?Climate Adaptation has no home regionally despiteregional working in other policy areas.CAG Consultants (and NSF) explored how best toapproach this in 2012/13.Engaged in NW and SE Wales.Time and capacity is limited.Information sharing is the easy part.LSB partners (Fire, Police, Health) need regionalapproach.Can LRF have a role here? – Potential 2013/14project.Potential for vulnerable land database.EU funding to build capacity through RDP/SDF?
Whole System Climate AdaptationStrategic Partnership Process Development GovernanceSingle IntegratedPlanLocal DevelopmentPlanEconomicRegenerationWales Spatial Plan?Local FoodStrategy?and othersLSBCommunityEconomySocialEnvironmentalRegionalWales-wideTrade UnionsBusiness PlanningFinancial PlanningRisk ManagementAsset ManagementCorporate PlanningCycleInsuranceEmergency PlanningFundingMajor DevelopmentsTransportInfrastructureEnergyInfrastructureCommunityInfrastructureDevelopmentprocessAsset ManagementExecutiveCouncilScrutinyCommitteesInternal AuditReportingFuture GenerationsCommittee?If we were doing adaptation right we would have evidenceof change in each of these columns.
We need to communicateevidenceDevelop local narrative ofimpact andconsequencesSell Business Case forChangeBlinkers or irresponsibility in publicservice?“Are we really spending 2 hours on climateadaptation – I’ve got work to do…..”“All of this seems to big…what can we do…….?”“This should all be dealt with at a UK or WG level –not us…..”“We’re making ends meet now every four years…we can’t think about the future……”“I don’t care – I’m not going to be around…..”“My service is too busy thinking about cuts to thinkdecades ahead…..”“ I don’t believe in climate change”“It’s a conspiracy to increase taxes”
Good Leadership on Climate Adaptation?“ which risks are most important to deal with….?”“why haven’t we been considering this before?”“ we need to involve…..”“ this needs to inform everything we are planning”“ I need to take this to Corporate Management Team…..“ How might this inform our work on….”“ Can we explore this in our work with….?”“ Tell me how to best communicate this….?”“ Tell me what we can do differently…..”“ What can I do to progress this…….?”“ How have you accounted for climate adaptation?
Learning from Foresighting workwe do stuff that helps to build resilience but itis not focused on medium and long termconditionsAbsence of discussion about externalitiesover the long term in key strategyLeaders validating staff to think about thefuture is vital – culture is oppositeCapacity and enthusiasm needs ‘freeing up’– won’t happen by accidentBut it is there – staff welcome being askedabout interventions and see relevance oflonger term planningCultural shift needed – its OK to think aboutthe long term
We need to build the business case moreeffectively to engage leaders…….CLIMATE RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE London – energy and transportNew York – cross sectoral expertiseDEFRA 2011 Guidance
Seattle, Washington StateClimate North EastNorth West Visitor Economy We need to build the business case moreeffectively to engage leaders….CLIMATE AND THE ECONOMYICLEI Canadahttp://www.icleicanada.org/resources/item/46-leadershipandlegacy
Where should we build capacity for leadership in local governmenton Climate Adaptation?PolOrganisational arena Political arenaChief ExecutivesSOLACECorporate ManagementSenior ManagersDirectorsOfficer GroupsDelivery PartnershipsFinanceLegalRegional GroupsEngagement with WGManagersEU fundingCabinetExecutivePlanning CommitteeScrutiny:•Economic•Finance•Environmental•SocialFinance CommitteeRegional GroupsLocal Service BoardEngagement with WGExperience so far has developed tools, and narrative to engage leaders…. this needs to continue
Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather experienced in New York City and around the world might not be the result of it, the risk that it may be- given the devastation it is wreaking – should be enough to compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.Former Republican, NYC Mayor Bloomberg’s statement in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires we have ever seen were all just freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgement of science – and act before it is too late – President Barack Obama 17th February 2013We need leaders inWales who can make thelink and speak out onclimate adaptation…
NETHERWOODSUSTAINABLE FUTURESSustainable Development &Climate Change ConsultancynDr. Alan NetherwoodNetherwood Sustainable FuturesHonorary Research FellowSchool of Planning & Geographyalan.firstname.lastname@example.orgThankyou for listeningDiolch yn fawr iawn.Any questions?