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Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.
LAND USE CLIMATE CHANGE GROUP GRŴ P DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID HINSAWDD
WALES AGRICULTURE/FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONSALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 N2O - 2.83 Mt CO2 e [from microbial action in soils and manures, inorganic N application, manure and leaching] CH4 - 2.72 Mt CO2e [from enteric ruminant activity & manure] CO2 - 0.48 Mt CO2 e [on farm emissions] - 2.5-3 Mt CO2 e [from food chain, fertilizer production and other inputs]
WALES AGRICULTURE / FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONSALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 Total - 8.5 - 9.0 Mt CO2 eEquivalent to ~ 3t CO2 e/person/annum (20% of Wales emissions)
WALES, UK and EUROPEAN TARGE80% REDUCTION IN GHG EMISSIONS BY 2050
PRESSURES1. anti meat/vegetarian/vegan lobby2. human health issues [obesity/heartdisease]3. environmental impact of production4. impact of world food animal production ongrain resources etc5. land use/forest clearance1. population growth2. increasing demand for meat and dairyproducts due to improving living standard3. desertification of marginal semi-aridrangelands
Principles[a]maintain ecosystem/countrysideservicese.g. food, water, timber, natural beautybiodiversity etc.[b] economic, social and environmentalsustainability
INVENTORY METHODS MESURIADAU STOCRESTRAgriculture emissions are estimated from multiplying annualactivity data (ruminant numbers, fertiliser use etc) byemission factors/unit source.Land use emissions are based on the annual changes incarbon content of soils and biomass per unit area,multiplied by estimates of the areas undergoing land usechange.
WALES LAND USE AND LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS- 2007ALLYRIADAU DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID YN NEFNYDD TIR CYMRU- 2007 (kt CO2e)iomaBss burning (grass / moors / brush) 32Liming of grassland and cropland 44Land to forest -1,430
Wales N2O emissions inventory – agriculture and land use 2007 [kt CO2e]Agricultural soils – total 2,187Fertiliser application 400Manure application 230Grazing – direct depositions 700Crop residues 20
Annual abatement impacts (kt CO2e) from 10, 20 and 30 year tree planting programmes at 5,000 ha/year averaged for decadal periods based on FR CARBINE model. Broadleaves Mixed Continuous Total Unmanaged Cover Gley soil Loam soilPlanting 2500 2500 5000programme (ha/yr)Length of 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30programme (years)Total Woodland 25000 50000 75000 25000 50000 75000 50000 100000 150000Creation (ha)2010-2019 7 7 7 23 23 23 30 30 302020-2029 206 211 211 289 310 310 495 522 522
Food commodity emissions from LCA study Standardised Consumption Total Welsh Food calories / kg carbon footprint (kg / person / year) footprint (kg CO2e / (kt CO2e / year) kg product)Lamb meat 32.0 2.9 271 2,500Cheese 12.5 4.6 171 3,833Liquid milk 1.7 26.2 131 615Strawberries 1.3 2.6 10 302Potatoes 1.0 26.0 79 1,000
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL• a significant hydro power potential of at least 0.3 TWh of electricity in upland Wales• community or personal wind energy could amount to 1 TWh electricity. The solar heat potential on individual homes is substantial but not quantifiable.• biomass such as short rotation coppice willow on the land above 300 m or miscanthus at lower altitudes could generate about 2-3 TWh as heat or 1/3 of this as electricity• 250,000 dairy cattle at 36 kWh/day could generate 330 GWh of heat which could be used in horticultural greenhouse enterprises etc• compared with the total problem the potential contribution of our small-scale rural micro renewables is relatively small – maybe about 3 TWh per year of electricity and a similar amount as heat. In terms of emissions savings this would total about 1,500-2,000 kt CO2e.
SCENARIOS 1 AND 2Scenario 1Based on a modified ‘business as usual’ withincremental technical improvements to deliveremission reductions in the range 10-15% by 2020.Scenario 2A market-driven scenario.
SCENARIO 3 AND 4Scenario 3Based on major imposed cuts of around 60-70 %in ruminant animal numbersScenario 4A lower intensity scenario which would be basedon mixed farming, reduction of animal products indiet and waste reduction
SCENARIO 5• dairy and associated beef production and anaerobic digestion• woodland management and expansion• on farm productivity improvement – sheep• renewable energy – wind, biomass, hydro, solar• increased efficiency, less waste and better focussed management• increased arable, horticultural and greenhouse crop production• reduction of animal products in diet and waste reduction• personal/individual responsibility
GHG Source Output in Output in Output with Interventions 2007 GHGI 2020 (BAU) 2020 2030 2040Forest – biomass burning 21Grass – biomass burning 6Settlement – biomass burning 4Grass – liming 37Cropland – liming 7Land to settlement 688 694Land to cropland 1,053 1,082 1334 1235 1174Harvested wood products 68 -806
SUMMARY / CrynodebThe preferred scenario would by Pe bai’n cael ei weithredu’n llawn,2040, if fully implemented: byddai’r senario dewisol erbyn• Reduce net emissions of 2040 yn:agriculture and land use from • Lleihau allyriadau net5,200 kt CO2e to around oddiwrth amaethyddiaeth a2,000 kt CO2e. defnydd tir o 5,200 kt CO2e• Produce about 3 TWh of oddeutu 2,000 kt CO2e.renewable heat and 3 TWh of • Cynhyrchu tua 3 TWh o wresrenewable electricity. This would adnewyddadwy a 3 TWh osave a further drydan adnewyddadwy.1,500-2,000kt of CO2 e emissions Byddai hyn yn arbed 1,500-2,000annually. kt CO2e o allyriadau pellach yn flynyddol.