Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.

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  • 1. LAND USE CLIMATE CHANGE GROUP GRŴ P DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID HINSAWDD
  • 2. WALES AGRICULTURE/FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONSALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 N2O - 2.83 Mt CO2 e [from microbial action in soils and manures, inorganic N application, manure and leaching] CH4 - 2.72 Mt CO2e [from enteric ruminant activity & manure] CO2 - 0.48 Mt CO2 e [on farm emissions] - 2.5-3 Mt CO2 e [from food chain, fertilizer production and other inputs]
  • 3. WALES AGRICULTURE / FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONSALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 Total - 8.5 - 9.0 Mt CO2 eEquivalent to ~ 3t CO2 e/person/annum (20% of Wales emissions)
  • 4. WALES, UK and EUROPEAN TARGE80% REDUCTION IN GHG EMISSIONS BY 2050
  • 5. PRESSURES1. anti meat/vegetarian/vegan lobby2. human health issues [obesity/heartdisease]3. environmental impact of production4. impact of world food animal production ongrain resources etc5. land use/forest clearance1. population growth2. increasing demand for meat and dairyproducts due to improving living standard3. desertification of marginal semi-aridrangelands
  • 6. Principles[a]maintain ecosystem/countrysideservicese.g. food, water, timber, natural beautybiodiversity etc.[b] economic, social and environmentalsustainability
  • 7. INVENTORY METHODS MESURIADAU STOCRESTRAgriculture emissions are estimated from multiplying annualactivity data (ruminant numbers, fertiliser use etc) byemission factors/unit source.Land use emissions are based on the annual changes incarbon content of soils and biomass per unit area,multiplied by estimates of the areas undergoing land usechange.
  • 8. GHG emissions (kt CO2e) by agricultural sector
  • 9. WALES LAND USE AND LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS- 2007ALLYRIADAU DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID YN NEFNYDD TIR CYMRU- 2007 (kt CO2e)iomaBss burning (grass / moors / brush) 32Liming of grassland and cropland 44Land to forest -1,430
  • 10. Wales N2O emissions inventory – agriculture and land use 2007 [kt CO2e]Agricultural soils – total 2,187Fertiliser application 400Manure application 230Grazing – direct depositions 700Crop residues 20
  • 11. Annual abatement impacts (kt CO2e) from 10, 20 and 30 year tree planting programmes at 5,000 ha/year averaged for decadal periods based on FR CARBINE model. Broadleaves Mixed Continuous Total Unmanaged Cover Gley soil Loam soilPlanting 2500 2500 5000programme (ha/yr)Length of 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30programme (years)Total Woodland 25000 50000 75000 25000 50000 75000 50000 100000 150000Creation (ha)2010-2019 7 7 7 23 23 23 30 30 302020-2029 206 211 211 289 310 310 495 522 522
  • 12. Food commodity emissions from LCA study Standardised Consumption Total Welsh Food calories / kg carbon footprint (kg / person / year) footprint (kg CO2e / (kt CO2e / year) kg product)Lamb meat 32.0 2.9 271 2,500Cheese 12.5 4.6 171 3,833Liquid milk 1.7 26.2 131 615Strawberries 1.3 2.6 10 302Potatoes 1.0 26.0 79 1,000
  • 13. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL• a significant hydro power potential of at least 0.3 TWh of electricity in upland Wales• community or personal wind energy could amount to 1 TWh electricity. The solar heat potential on individual homes is substantial but not quantifiable.• biomass such as short rotation coppice willow on the land above 300 m or miscanthus at lower altitudes could generate about 2-3 TWh as heat or 1/3 of this as electricity• 250,000 dairy cattle at 36 kWh/day could generate 330 GWh of heat which could be used in horticultural greenhouse enterprises etc• compared with the total problem the potential contribution of our small-scale rural micro renewables is relatively small – maybe about 3 TWh per year of electricity and a similar amount as heat. In terms of emissions savings this would total about 1,500-2,000 kt CO2e.
  • 14. SCENARIOS 1 AND 2Scenario 1Based on a modified ‘business as usual’ withincremental technical improvements to deliveremission reductions in the range 10-15% by 2020.Scenario 2A market-driven scenario.
  • 15. SCENARIO 3 AND 4Scenario 3Based on major imposed cuts of around 60-70 %in ruminant animal numbersScenario 4A lower intensity scenario which would be basedon mixed farming, reduction of animal products indiet and waste reduction
  • 16. SCENARIO 5• dairy and associated beef production and anaerobic digestion• woodland management and expansion• on farm productivity improvement – sheep• renewable energy – wind, biomass, hydro, solar• increased efficiency, less waste and better focussed management• increased arable, horticultural and greenhouse crop production• reduction of animal products in diet and waste reduction• personal/individual responsibility
  • 17. GHG Source Output in Output in Output with Interventions 2007 GHGI 2020 (BAU) 2020 2030 2040Forest – biomass burning 21Grass – biomass burning 6Settlement – biomass burning 4Grass – liming 37Cropland – liming 7Land to settlement 688 694Land to cropland 1,053 1,082 1334 1235 1174Harvested wood products 68 -806
  • 18. SUMMARY / CrynodebThe preferred scenario would by Pe bai’n cael ei weithredu’n llawn,2040, if fully implemented: byddai’r senario dewisol erbyn• Reduce net emissions of 2040 yn:agriculture and land use from • Lleihau allyriadau net5,200 kt CO2e to around oddiwrth amaethyddiaeth a2,000 kt CO2e. defnydd tir o 5,200 kt CO2e• Produce about 3 TWh of oddeutu 2,000 kt CO2e.renewable heat and 3 TWh of • Cynhyrchu tua 3 TWh o wresrenewable electricity. This would adnewyddadwy a 3 TWh osave a further drydan adnewyddadwy.1,500-2,000kt of CO2 e emissions Byddai hyn yn arbed 1,500-2,000annually. kt CO2e o allyriadau pellach yn flynyddol.
  • 19. 1992 2002