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Turkey 2009 Webinar

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This is a presentation made by Rolf Danielsen, country analyst at the Swedish bank SEB. The presentation were held at a live webinar on the Benche. A recorded version of the webinar can be seen here: …

This is a presentation made by Rolf Danielsen, country analyst at the Swedish bank SEB. The presentation were held at a live webinar on the Benche. A recorded version of the webinar can be seen here: https://www.thebenche.com/forum/benche/6956-recorded-version-turkey-webinar.html


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  • 1. WEBinar Nov. 25, 2009 Rolf Danielsen Turkey – weathering the crisis
  • 2. Crisis hit Turkey hard
    • Years of strong growth cut short by crisis
    • Domestic demand fell over a cliff
    • Expectation shock
    • Consumption down 10% (Q1)
    • Investments down 27%
  • 3. But the fall was cushioned
    • Domestic stimulus package
      • Reduced taxes, increased soc. sec.
      • Subsidies for new car purchases etc.
      • wage raise in public sector
    • Lower interest rates
    • Softer exchange rate
  • 4. Signs of recovery Leading indicator: Exports prospects New orders Employment situation
  • 5. But not yet buoyant
    • Fiscal stimulus to expire
    • General import softness
    • Balance of payments
      • Profit tax on T-bills!
      • Rising oil price
    • Higher interest rates
    • Higher fiscal deficit
  • 6. Risk: Government budget
    • deficit sharply up -09
    • MEP in Sept. 2009
    • based on robust recovery forecast
    • interest sensitive
    • explosive public health costs
  • 7. Upside: stronger banks
    • Weathered the crisis better than expected
    • No major bank-run: continued deposits growth
    • Credit expansion paused but picking up recently
    • Bad loans rising but still below 6%
    • Less crisis prone
  • 8. Political issues
    • Traditionally high event risk
    • Battle between secularists and traditionalists
    • EU membership
    • Regional opportunities/challenges
      • Kurds
      • Iraq/Iran
      • Armenia
      • Nabucco and gas hub
    Where is Turkey heading – East or West?