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The Benche Webinar   Ukraine presented by Jenny Nordgren, seb
 

The Benche Webinar Ukraine presented by Jenny Nordgren, seb

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This presentation is from a webinar held at the Benche on July 6, 2010. A recorded version of the webinar can be found here

This presentation is from a webinar held at the Benche on July 6, 2010. A recorded version of the webinar can be found here

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    The Benche Webinar   Ukraine presented by Jenny Nordgren, seb The Benche Webinar Ukraine presented by Jenny Nordgren, seb Presentation Transcript

    • WEBINAR: Ukraine – on track again? 6 July 2010 Jenny Nordgren Country Analyst
    • Crisis hit Ukraine hard
      • Large external imbalances before the crisis
      • Weak banking sector
      • Collapsing steel industry – 42 % of exports
      • International finance dried up
      • Chaotic politics
    • IMF loan averted a default
      • Massive capital flight
      • Sharp FX devaluation
      • Substantial IMF loan of USD 16bn in November 2008
    • Recovery under way
      • Stronger external demand
      • Higher commodity prices
      • Low base
      • Domestic demand still weak
    • Political Stalemate Ended
      • Democratic presidential elections
      • New majority government
      • Decisive actions during the first 100 days in power
        • Adopted a budget for 2010
        • Concluded a gas-fleet deal with Russia
        • IMF staff level agreement on USD 15bn aid package
    • Positive momentum
      • Improved investor confidence
      • Upgrade of sovereign rating
      • Sharp reduction of capital outflows
      • Soaring stock market
      • Appreciation pressure on the hryvnia
    • But risks remain - Budget
      • Sharp widening of the fiscal deficit
      • 2010 Budget unrealistic
      • Large corrective measures needed
      Source: World Bank, July 2010
    • But risks remain - Energy
      • Energy sector reform – IMF condition
      • Raise domestic natural gas prices
      • Improve Naftogaz’s financial position
      • Socially and politically challenging
    • Large refinancing needs
      • High external debt
      • Mainly owned by the private sector
      • Large external debt repayments to IMF 2012-2014
      • Resumed IMF lending is key