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China Financial Index
 

China Financial Index

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This is a sem-annually questionnaire put forward to north European companies in China, The purpose is to follow how these companies are viewing the future for their companies in China. The answers are ...

This is a sem-annually questionnaire put forward to north European companies in China, The purpose is to follow how these companies are viewing the future for their companies in China. The answers are then analysed and an index is the reult.

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    China Financial Index China Financial Index Document Transcript

    • China Financial Index SEB Shanghai Branch 16 March 2010 Investments up as business climate improves - But profit expectations fall as margins deteriorate = = = pÉåáçê= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~í= kçêíÜÉêå= bìêçéÉ~å= få= pb_Ûë= `Üáå~= cáå~åÅá~ä= pìêîÉóI= ëÉåáçê= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= áå= `Üáå~= ÑçêÉëÉÉ= ~= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= Ñêçã= ~êçìåÇ= RM= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë= çÑ= áãéêçîÉãÉåí= áå= ÄìëáåÉëë= éêçëéÉÅíë= çå= íÜÉ= ã~àçê= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= áå= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉíK= ^äãçëí= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= `Üáå~= ïÉêÉ= ~ëâÉÇ= ~Äçìí= íÜÉáê= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉáê= ÄìëáåÉëë= ëáíì~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉáê= çïå= ÄìëáåÉëë= ~ë= ïÉää= ~ë= íÜÉ= ã~Åêç= íç= áãéêçîÉ= ÑìêíÜÉê= ~åÇ= OMB= ÉñéÉÅí= áí= íç= ~åÇ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÉåîáêçåãÉåíK= lîÉê~ääI= áãéêçîÉ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäóK= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= ïáää= = ÅçåíáåìÉ= íç= áãéêçîÉ= ~åÇ= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã= `çãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= ëí~êíáåÖ= íç= áåîÉëí= áå= íÜÉ= éêÉîáçìë= ““Å~êÉÑìääó= Éñé~åÇÒ= ëíê~íÉÖó= `Üáå~= ~Ö~áå= ïáíÜ= SRB= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí= íÜ~í=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~ÇçéíÉÇ=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê= áåîÉëíãÉåí= ~åÇ= NUB= éä~ååáåÖ= ã~àçê= íçï~êÇë= ~= ãçêÉ= ~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ= Éñé~åëáçå= áå= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëK= `Üáå~K= oÉÅêìáíãÉåí=éä~åë=~äëç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= = = =få= íÜÉ= ãÉ~åíáãÉI= ãçåÉí~êó= éçäáÅáÉë= ~êÉ= eçïÉîÉêI=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=~êÉ=äçïÉê=íÜ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=íáÖÜíÉêK=jçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïç=íÜáêÇë= éêÉîáçìëäóI= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= ã~êÖáåë= ~ë= ÉñéÉÅí= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= ~åÇ= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçëíë= Å~ååçí= ÄÉ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= íç= ÅçãéäÉíÉäó= é~ëëÉÇ= çå= íç= ÅäáÉåíë= ~åÇ= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rpJÇçää~êK= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= = = = Our conclusions pb_Ûë=`Üáå~=cáå~åÅá~ä=fåÇÉñ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=SR=áå= = jìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ä~Åâ= íç= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=ìé=Ñêçã=SO=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêK== = ~å= Éñé~åëáçå= ãçÇÉ= çå=íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ã~êâÉí ~ë= = SEB’s China Financial Index = íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ÅçåíáåìÉë= íç= êÉéçêí= ÜáÖÜ= ÖêçïíÜK= = táíÜ= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= éêáÅÉëI ~åÇ= ~= 90.0 = ëíêçåÖÉê= oj_I= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= 80.0 70.0 = ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ íç= Ñ~ÅÉ= êáëáåÖ= áåéìí= ÅçëíëI= ïÜáäÉ= 60.0 = çîÉêÅ~é~Åáíó= ~åÇ= ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= áå= ~äãçëí= ÉîÉêó= 50.0 = ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=äáãáíë=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=çÑ=Ñáêãë= 40.0 = íç=ê~áëÉ=Ñáå~ä=ÖççÇë=éêáÅÉëK=qÜ~í=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=íÜÉ= 30.0 = ãçëí= äçÖáÅ~ä= êÉ~ëçå= ÄÉÜáåÇ= Ç~ãéÉåÉÇ= éêçÑáí= 20.0 = éêçëéÉÅíë=~ãçåÖ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉóK= 10.0 = Index value Business climate Investment plans Employees Profit cêÉÇêáâ=e®ÜåÉä= pçìêÅÉW=pb_=pÜ~åÖÜ~áK=dêÉó=ëí~Åâë=ëÜçï=êÉëìäíë=áå=j~êÅÜ=~åÇ=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=OMMV= ÑêÉÇêáâKÜ~ÜåÉä]ëÉÄKëÉI=íÉäW=HUS=ON=RPVS=SSUN= This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained herein without notice. Any US person wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact the New York branch of the Bank which has distributed this report in the US. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is a member of London Stock Exchange. It is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 2 ëí~íáëíáÅëW= qÜÉ= j~êâáí= mjf= áåÇÉñ= Ñçê= Confidence High ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåéìí= éêáÅÉë= Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå= China leading growth in 2010 ÅäáãÄáåÖ=ëíÉ~ÇáäóI=íç=SVKV=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=Ñêçã= = QQKP= áå= j~óK= jçêÉ= íÜ~å= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= íÜÉ= `Üáå~Ûë=ÉÅçåçãó=ÖêÉï=Äó=UKTB=áå=OMMV=~åÇ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= áå= çìê= ëìêîÉó= Ü~îÉ= pb_Ûë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= áë= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= ïáää= Öêçï= Äó= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=áå=`Üáå~K== NMKRB=áå=OMNM=~åÇ=Äó=VB=áå=OMNNK=`Üáå~=ïáää= = íÜÉêÉÄó=ëÜçï=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜÉëí=ÖêçïíÜ=é~ÅÉ=çÑ=~ää= The RMB will appreciate vs. the USD ã~àçê=ã~êâÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇK=qÜáë=áë=áå=ëí~êâ= again; interest rates are on their way up Åçåíê~ëí=íç=íÜÉ=rpI=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=g~é~å=ïÜáÅÜ= = ~êÉ= ~ää= ëíáää= ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ï~âÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= çÑÑáÅá~äë= Ü~îÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëK=qÜÉ=âÉó=íç=ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ÉãéÜ~ëáòÉÇ= íÜ~í= ~= ëí~ÄäÉ= EáKÉK= åçí= ÑáëÅ~ä= ëíáãìäìë= Ñáå~åÅÉÇ= Äó= ÜìÖÉ= Ä~åâ= ~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖF= oj_= áë= áå= `Üáå~Ûë= áåíÉêÉëíë= äÉåÇáåÖK= ^í= íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí= k~íáçå~ä= mÉçéäÉÛë= ~åÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó= ïáää= åçí= ÖáîÉ= áå= íç= `çåÖêÉëëI= íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ëëìêÉÇ= ã~êâÉíë= éêÉëëìêÉ= Ñêçã= çíÜÉê= ÅçìåíêáÉë= íç= äÉí= íÜÉ= íÜ~í= áí= ïáää= ã~áåí~áå= áíë= Éñé~åëáçå~êó= ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåI= íÜÉêÉ= ~êÉ= ã~åó= ëáÖåë= ãçåÉí~êó= ~åÇ= ÑáëÅ~ä= éçäáÅáÉëI= ÉîÉå= ~ë= íÜÉ= íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ëí~êí=íç=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ~ííÉãéíë= íç= í~ÅâäÉ= êáëâë= çÑ= ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= oÉÅÉåíäóI= wÜçì= uá~çÅÜì~åI= çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= Äó= ÑáåÉ= íìåáåÖ= ÖçîÉêåçê= çÑ= `Üáå~Ûë= `Éåíê~ä= _~åâI= éçäáÅáÉë= ~åÇ= ÅçåíêçääáåÖ= áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ= ÇÉëÅêáÄÉÇ= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåí= éÉÖ= íç= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= áåîÉëíãÉåí== ~ë= íÉãéçê~êóI= äÉ~ÇáåÖ= íç= ã~êâÉí= = ÅçåÅäìëáçåë=íÜ~í=`Üáå~=ïáää=áå=Ñ~Åí=ÅçåíáåìÉ= = íç= äÉí= íÜÉ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉå= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= = rp=Ççää~ê=~ÑíÉê=~=Ü~äí=áå=~ééêÉÅá~íáçåë=ëáåÅÉ= = ^ìÖìëí=OMMUK=e~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉëéçåÇÉåíë=áå=íÜáë= = ëìêîÉó= ÉñéÉÅí= ~å= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= NO= = ãçåíÜë=éêáÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=kac=ã~êâÉí=áë=~í=SKSPK= = = = China USD/CNY & NDF 12-mth = 8.50 = 8.25 = 8.00 = USD/CNY 7.75 = USD/CNY 7.50 = 7.25 = = 7.00 = = 6.75 pçìêÅÉW=pb_I=kçêÇáÅ=lìíäççâI=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OMNM= 12-mth NDF = 6.50 tÜáäÉ=~ää=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=áå=íÜáë=ëìêîÉó=éçáåí=~í=~= 6.25 ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= áãéêçîáåÖ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= áå= 05 06 07 08 09 10 `Üáå~I= éêçÑáí= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ü~îÉ= Ñ~ääÉå= ëáåÅÉ= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= = ^åÉÅÇçí~ä= ÉîáÇÉåÅÉ= Ñêçã= SUB= çÑ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= áåíÉêÉëí= ÇáëÅìëëáçåë= ïáíÜ= çìê= ÅäáÉåíë= ïáíÜáå= íÜÉ= ê~íÉë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= S= ãçåíÜëK= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= áåÇìëíêó= áåÇáÅ~íÉë= íÜ~í= íÜáë= qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ÑáÖìêÉ=Ñçê=cÉÄêì~êó=Å~ãÉ=áå=~í= áë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ=áåéìí=ÅçëíëK=^ë=ÑáÉêÅÉ= OKTBI= ìé= Ñêçã= NKRB= áå= g~åì~êóK= jçëí= ÅçãéÉíáíáçå= ~åÇ= çîÉêëìééäó= áå= ã~åó= ÉÅçåçãáëíë=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜáë=áå=ÅçãÄáå~íáçå= ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= ëÉÅíçêë= ~êÉ= âÉÉéáåÖ= Ñáå~ä= ïáíÜ= çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ= áå= íÜÉ= éêçéÉêíó= ã~êâÉí= ÖççÇë= éêáÅÉë= ÇçïåI= íÜáë= êÉëìäíë= áå= Ñ~ääáåÖ= ïáää= äÉ~Ç= íç= ëÉîÉê~ä= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= Äó= íÜÉ= ã~êÖáåë=ïÜáÅÜ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=~=êáëáåÖ=ÅçåÅÉêå= mÉçéäÉÛë= _~åâ= çÑ= `Üáå~= ÇìêáåÖ= OMNMK= qÜÉ= Ñçê= Åçãé~åáÉëK= qÜáë= áë= ÑìêíÜÉê= éêçîÉå= Äó= çåÉ=óÉ~ê=äÉåÇáåÖ=ê~íÉ=íçÇ~ó=áë=RKPNBK=
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 3 = Survey Results Subject: Employee Structure = bîÉå= áå= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÅêáëáëI= Information about the Survey íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=ã~àçê=ä~óJçÑÑë=~ãçåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå= The SEB China Financial Survey is based on input Åçãé~åáÉë=áå=`Üáå~K=^ë=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå=kçêíÜ= from CEOs and CFOs at 50 subsidiaries of major Swedish, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and German bìêçéÉ~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÄÉÅçãÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó= companies. Most of the companies have a global ÄìääáëÜI= íÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= éä~ååáåÖ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= turnover of over EUR 500 million. The survey is web- ëí~ÑÑ= ÑìêíÜÉêK= RRB= éä~å= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ëí~ÑÑ= based and confidential and was carried out during the åìãÄÉêë= ~åÇ= SB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= period March 1 – 10, 2010. áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK=qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=QPB=~åÇ= = TB=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK== = EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=Q=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= = = = = Subject: Business Climate / Profit Subject: Fixed Asset Investment Plans Expectations qÜÉ= åìãÄÉê= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= éä~ååáåÖ= kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=ëìÄëáÇá~êó=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= Ü~ë= Ñáå~ääó= ëí~êíÉÇ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉK= `Üáå~=Ü~îÉ=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉï=çÑ= få= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= SRB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí= íÜÉ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= Ñçê= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= RMB= áå= ãçåíÜëI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= QUB= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ= çÑ= EQSB= áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêF= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÉñéÉÅí= Åçãé~åáÉë=éä~ååáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ÄìëáåÉëë=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=íç=ÄÉ=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ= Ü~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç= NUB= Ñêçã= NNB= áå= ÅçãáåÖ=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~åÇ=OMB=ETB=áå=j~êÅÜF= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= qÜáë= áë= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= ~= ëÜáÑí= áå= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=îÉêó=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉK=låäó=UB= `Üáå~= ëíê~íÉÖáÉë= ~ãçåÖ= kçêíÜ= bìêçéÉ~å= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ïáää=ÄÉ=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉK= Åçãé~åáÉë= íÜ~í= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã= qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=NNB=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê= ““Å~êÉÑìääó=Éñé~åÇáåÖÒ=íç=~=ãçêÉ=~ÖÖêÉëëáîÉ= ~åÇ=PRB=çåÉ=óÉ~ê=~ÖçK=kç=Åçãé~åó=ÉñéÉÅíë= ëíê~íÉÖóK= fåîÉëíãÉåí= ÇÉÅáëáçåë= ~êÉ= ãçëíäó= îÉêó=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉ=ÅçåÇáíáçåëK= í~âÉå= çå= ÜÉ~Çèì~êíÉê= äÉîÉä= ~åÇ= ïÜÉå= = ãìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= Åçãé~êÉ= ã~êâÉí= tÜÉå=~ëâÉÇ=~Äçìí=éêçÑáí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëI=ROB= éêçëéÉÅíë= Ñçê= OMNMI= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅí= éêçÑáíë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= ëÜçï= íÜÉ= ÜáÖÜÉëí= ÖêçïíÜ= áå= SNB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI= ~åÇ= åç= Åçãé~åáÉë= OMNMK=`Üáå~=áë=áå=~=Åä~ëë=çÑ=áíë=çïåI=äÉ~ÇáåÖ= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= éêçÑáíë= ïáää= áãéêçîÉ= íÜÉ=êÉÅçîÉêóK= ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó= EÅçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QB= áå= =EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=O=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK= NQB= ÉñéÉÅí= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáíë= EQB= = áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉêFK= = = Subject: Average Outstanding Account dêçïíÜ= áå= OMMV= ÉåÇÉÇ= ~í= UKTB= ~åÇ= ãçëí= Receivables days ÑáÖìêÉë=éçáåí=~í=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå= cçêÉáÖå=Åçãé~åáÉë=çÑíÉå=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜí=é~óãÉåí= `Üáå~K= `ÜáåÉëÉ= Éñéçêíë= EçÑ= ïÜáÅÜ= íÉêãë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= áëëìÉ= çÑ= ~Åíì~ääó= ÄÉáåÖ= é~áÇ= ~ééêçñáã~íÉäó=SMB=~êÉ=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Äó=ÑçêÉáÖå= çå= íáãÉ= ~ë= çåÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~áå= ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë= áå= áåîÉëíÉÇ=Åçãé~åáÉëF=êçëÉ=QRKTB=áå=cÉÄêì~êó= `Üáå~K= _~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= çåäó= ~= ëã~ää= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= ãçåíÜ= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK= ãáåçêáíó= çÑ= kçêÇáÅ= ~åÇ= dÉêã~å= Åçêéçê~íÉë= ^äíÜçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áë= ã~áåäó= Ü~îÉ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= çìíëí~åÇáåÖ= ~ÅÅçìåí= ÇìÉ= íç= Ä~ëÉ= ÉÑÑÉÅíëI= ãçëí= ~å~äóëíë= ÉñéÉÅí= êÉÅÉáî~ÄäÉ= Ç~óë= çÑ= ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= VM= Ç~óëK= qÜÉ= Éñéçêí= ÑáÖìêÉë= íç= Öê~Çì~ääó= êÉÅçîÉê= ÇìêáåÖ= çåäó= ëí~íáëíáÅ~ääó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= áë= íÜ~í= OMNMK= oÉí~áä= ë~äÉë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= OOKNB= áå= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ëÜçêíÉê= íÜ~å= cÉÄêì~êó= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= QB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íÜ~å= ã~êâÉí= éêÉîáçìëäóK= OQB= çÑ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= åçï= Ü~îÉ= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK= mçëëáÄäÉ= êÉ~ëçåë= ÄÉÜáåÇ= PM= Ç~óë= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= Ñ~ääáåÖ= éêçÑáí= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~êÉ= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= çå= íç=NSB=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~ÖçK= é~ÖÉë=N=~åÇ=OK= EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=R=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF E^äëç=ëÉÉ=Öê~éÜë=N=~åÇ=PI=éK=RF=
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 4 Subject: Funding Needs= pÉéíÉãÄÉê= NNI= ìé= ìåíáä= j~êÅÜ= NNI= íÜÉ= oj_= cìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= ~êÉ= çå= íÜÉ= êáëÉK= qçÇ~óI= QOB= Ü~ë= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉÇ= Äó= TKMQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= broI= çÑ=ã~å~ÖÉêë=~êÉ=ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ=ÑìåÇáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=íç= NKVVB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= pbhI= SKTMB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëI= ~ë= ahh= ~åÇ= ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ= MKPQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= PPB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= RSB= çÑ= klhK=qÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=ëç=ã~åó=Åçãé~åáÉë=~êÉ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= êÉã~áå= ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= ãçîáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë= çåäó= çåÉ= ëáåÖäÉ= íÜÉ=rpa=íÜáë=óÉ~ê==ã~ó=ÄÉ=çåÉ=êÉ~ëçå=ïÜó= Åçãé~åó= ÉñéÉÅíë= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= QSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= ëçãÉ= çê= ãçëí= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉK= `çåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= áåîÉëíãÉåí= çÑ= íÜÉáê= cu= Ñäçïë= çå= íÜÉ= çåJëÜçêÉ= Ñçêï~êÇ= éä~åë= ~êÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖI= íÜáë= ëÉÉãë= äçÖáÅ~äK= ^í= ã~êâÉíI= ~åÇ= ~åçíÜÉê= NSB= ~êÉ= ÜÉÇÖáåÖ= îá~= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= íÜÉ= áãéêçîÉÇ= ÄìëáåÉëë= íÜÉáê=ÜÉ~Ç=çÑÑáÅÉë=íÜêçìÖÜ=kacJÅçåíê~Åíë=K= ëáíì~íáçå=ïáíÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ë~äÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=íç= =EmäÉ~ëÉ= ëÉÉ= Öê~éÜë= T= ~åÇ= U= çå= é~ÖÉ= R= éäìë= ~=ÖêÉ~íÉê=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=ïçêâáåÖ=Å~éáí~äK== Öê~éÜ=V=~åÇ=NM=çå=é~ÖÉ=SF= EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=S=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= = = = = Subject: Main Concerns= Subject: FX and Interest Rates= qÜÉ= ã~àçê= ÅçåÅÉêå= Ñçê= äçÅ~ä= ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí= qÜÉ= îáÉï= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= áë== êÉã~áåë= ““ÅìëíçãÉê= ÇÉã~åÇÒI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= Éñé~åÇáåÖ=Ñ~ëí=Å~å=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=ã~å~ÖÉêëÛ= ëäáÖÜíäó=ìé=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ëìêîÉó=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë= îáÉïë= çÑ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= oj_= ~ÖçK= få= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= QUB= ê~íÉÇ= áí= ~ë= íÜÉáê= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉK= kç= Åçãé~åó= ÄÉäáÉîÉë= íÜ~í= ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QRB= áå= j~êÅÜK= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Ñ~ääI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë=SUB= ÄÉäáÉîÉ= qÜÉ= ÄáÖÖÉëí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= Ñêçã= çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉó= áë= íÜ~í= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Öç= ìéK= POB= ÉñéÉÅí= ê~íÉë= íç= íÜ~í= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= NPB= åçï= ëÉÉ= ““ä~Äçê= ëí~ó= ~í= ÅìêêÉåí= äÉîÉäë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ëÜçêí~ÖÉÒ= ~ë= ~= ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Eìé= Ñêçã= RB= ãçåíÜëK= _çíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçFK= qÜáë= ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ= äçÖáÅ~ä= ê~íÉë=~êÉ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=áå=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí= ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= ëç= ã~åó= Åçãé~åáÉë= ~êÉ= äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉ= Ñçê= ~= NOJãçåíÜ= Ä~åâ= äç~å= áë= åçï= áåîÉëíáåÖ= ~åÇ= êÉÅêìáíáåÖI= ïÜáÅÜ= ï~ë= RKPNBK= qÜÉ= NOJãçåíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉ= áë= OKORBK= åçí= ëç= ÅäÉ~êäó= íÜÉ= Å~ëÉ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= dáîÉå= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= Ü~Ç= ~= `mf= çÑ= OKTB= áå= líÜÉê= áëëìÉë= íÜ~í= ïÉêÉ= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ= ïÉêÉ= cÉÄêì~êóI= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= åÉÖ~íáîÉ= ““ÅçãéäÉñ= êìäÉë= ~åÇ= êÉÖìä~íáçåëÒI= ““Åçëí= çÑ= ~Ö~áåK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=ãçîÉ= ê~ï=ã~íÉêá~äÒ=~åÇ=““ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉëÒK= Å~ìíáçìëäóI= ãçëí= ÉÅçåçãáëíë= ÉñéÉÅí= çåÉ= çê= ^ë= ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ= ~ÄçîÉI= ÜáÖÜÉê= ê~ï= ã~íÉêá~ä= ãçêÉ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= Åçëíë= ~åÇ= ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= çÑ= íÜÉ= ãçåíÜëK= oj_=~êÉ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=Ñ~Åíçêë=Ñçê=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ= = Åçãé~åáÉëK=EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=NN=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF= jçêÉ= ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ëí~êí= = ~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= ~ÑíÉê= = çîÉê= ~= óÉ~ê= ~åÇ= ~= Ü~äÑ= çÑ= ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa= ê~íÉëK= RMB= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ= China Financial Index - Composition çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=S=ãçåíÜë=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=PPB= The SEB China Financial Index in March had a value áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~å= Éèì~ääó= ä~êÖÉ= of 65, indicating a positive attitude. A value of 50 would indicate a neutral view. The index is based on éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉÓ=RMB=J=ëíáää=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=oj_= four components with the following ranking in this ïáää= êÉã~áå= ëí~ÄäÉ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= Ççää~êK= ^= survey: General Business Situation – 66, Profit ëí~ÄäÉ= oj_Lrpa= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉ= áë= çåÉ= çÑ= Expectations – 59, Investment Plans – 70, and Employment Plans – 63. (see the graph on page 1) íÜÉ= ã~áå= êÉ~ëçåë= ïÜó= ~ë= ã~åó= ~ë= TQB= çÑ= kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=Åçãé~åáÉë=ìëÉ=íÜÉ=rpa= = ~ë= íÜÉáê= ã~áå= íê~ÇáåÖ= ÅìêêÉåÅó= áå= `Üáå~I= = ïÜáÅÜ= áë= ~Åíì~ääó= ìé= Ñêçã= TMB= áå= çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉóK= OQB= ìëÉ= íÜÉ= bro= ~åÇ= çåäó= OB= ~åëïÉêÉÇ= íÜ~í= íÜÉó= ìëÉ= pÅ~åÇáå~îá~å= ÅìêêÉåÅáÉëK= páåÅÉ= Éñ~Åíäó= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI=
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 5 1. Business Conditions 5. Average Outstanding A/R 60% 50% 45% 50% 40% 40% 35% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% Very Favourable Average Not so Very 0% favourable favourable unfavourable = 0-30 days 30-60 days 60-90 days 90-120 days >120 days = = = 2. Fixed Asset Investment Plans 6. Funding Needs 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Major Modest No Minor Major 0% investments investments investments divestments divestments = Increase Be Unchanged Decrease = 3. Profit Expectations 7. RMB against USD 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Improve Improve Remain Deteriorate Deteriorate 0% Considerably Unchanged Considerably = Weaker RMB Unchanged RMB Stronger RMB = 4. Number of Employees 8. RMB Interest Rates 60% 80% 50% 70% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Increase Increase Remain Decline Decline Interest rates will fall Interest rates will go up Interest rates will be Significantly Unchanged Significantly = unchanged =
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 6 9. Main Trading Currency 11. Main Concerns 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 10% 30% 0% 20% n s y d s ge s ns te te ilit tie an io io rta ra ra tit ab i m od at pe ho st de ge ul t m en om re s g n 10% om er re te ha or ym C m In b l/c d c pa to la an ex ia us d er s n s ille er 0% C le ig at m ru re Sk fm to Fo ex USD EUR Scandinavian us to pl C os om Currencies = = C C = 10. Hedging Strategy 12. Main Index 40% 90.0 35% 80.0 30% 70.0 25% 60.0 20% 50.0 15% 40.0 10% 30.0 5% 20.0 0% 10.0 Hedge most Hedge some Never hedge Hedging is Have no FX flows on-shore flows on-shore done by flows Index value Business Investment Employees Profit climate plans headquarters = = Source: SEB Shanghai. Grey stacks are indicating companies’ answers in March 2009, and September 2009
    • SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010 7 = = Financial Data = = Macro Data (% changes) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7 CPI 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 Industry Output 16.4 16.6 18.5 12.9 11.0 Exports 18.2 24.7 21.7 17.3 -16.0 Imports 22.2 13.9 25.7 18.5 -11.2 On-shore deposit rates, major currencies, below 3m USD equivalent On-shore interest rates (%) Current 3M 6M 9M 12M USD 0.0500 0.1600 0.7500 0.8500 1.0000 EUR 0.1000 1.0000 1.1250 1.1875 1.2500 JPY 0.0001 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100 HKD 0.0100 0.1500 0.5000 0.6250 0.7500 RMB Interest Rates (PBOC Regulated) PBOC Rate 100311 (%) < 6M 6M-1Y 1Y-3Y 3Y-5Y > 5Y Lending Rates 4.86 5.31 5.4 5.76 5.94 PBOC Rate 100311 (%) Current 3M 6M 1Y 2Y Deposit Rates 0.36 1.71 1.98 2.25 2.79 FX Indicative Spot and Forward Rates 11/Jun/10 11/Sep/10 11/Dec/10 11/Mar/11 FX 11/Mar 3M 6M 9M 12M USD/CNY 6.826 6.824 6.812 6.792 6.753 EUR/CNY 9.320 9.323 9.315 9.272 9.224 GBP/CNY 10.226 10.221 10.201 10.168 10.105 JPY/CNY 7.551 7.553 7.544 7.526 7.490 HKD/CNY 0.880 0.879 0.878 0.875 0.870 SEK/CNY 0.957 0.957 10.955 0.953 0.947 DKK/CNY 1.253 1.250 1.250 1.246 1.239 NOK/CNY 1.162 1.163 1.161 1.157 1.150 All indicative rates as per 2010-03-11 For further information please contact SEB Shanghai's Trading Room: stella.peng@seb.se or +86 21 5396 6081