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Zpunkt gbn global megatrends

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  • 1. Six Key Trends Shaping Future SocietyCornelia Daheim . Z_punkt GmbH . The Foresight CompanyOECD: TIP Workshop on Future Orientations for STI Policy | 14th Dec. 2009, Paris 1
  • 2. Agenda • Intro • 6 Megatrends for STI Policy • Conclusions 2
  • 3. Z_PUNKT THE FORESIGHT COMPANYFUTURIZE YOUR BUSINESS. Z_punkt is a consulting firm focusing on strategic future issues. We are experts in Corporate Foresight, i.e. in translating trend and future research into the real world of strategic management. We have been supporting leading corporations and institutions with Foresight Research and Foresight Consulting Services since 1997. 3
  • 4. Z_PUNKT THE FORESIGHT COMPANYFUTURIZE YOUR BUSINESS. Foresight Research Knowledge for Businesses. Foresight Consulting Counsel for Decision-Makers and Strategists. Public Foresight Research for Public Authorities. 4
  • 5. CONTENT: 20 MEGATRENDS – SIX KEYTRENDS SOCIETY TECHNOLOGY • Urbanisation & Demographic Change • Digital Lifestyle • Women on the Rise • Convergence of Technologies • Cultural Diversity • Learning from Nature • New Patterns of Mobility • Ubiquitous Intelligence CONSUMERS GLOBALISED WORLD • Next Level of Individualisation • Globalisation 2.0 • New Consumption Patterns • Urbanisation • Thriving Health Sector • New Political World Order • Increasing Security Threats BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT • Knowledge-Based Economy • Energy and Resource Reversal • Change of the world of Work • Climate Change and other • Business-Ecosystems Environmental Impacts 5
  • 6. MEGATREND: CLIMATE CHANGE & ENERGY AND RESOURCEREVERSAL • Rising CO2 Emissions and Temperatures • Environmental Problems in Emerging and Developing Countries a Risk Factor • More Investment in Clean Technology • Increasing Responsibilities for Companies • Strategic Resources Become Scarce • Use of Alternative Energy Sources and Renewable Fuels • Energy Efficiency Revolution Continues • Growing Importance of Decentralised Energy Production 6
  • 7. MEGATREND: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE & URBANISATION • Increase and Ageing of World Population Source: UN 2006b7 7
  • 8. MEGATREND: URBANISATION & DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Growth and Ageing of the World Population • Shrinking Society in the West and High Birth Rates in Developing Countries • Increasing Migration • Impact of Demographic Imbalances • Urbanisation Mainly in Emerging Markets and Developing Countries • Strong Growth of Metropolises and Megacities • Development of Adapted Infrastructure Solutions 8
  • 9. MEGATREND: NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY • Increased Global Mobility • Increasing Barriers to Mobility • Construction of Traffic Infrastructures • New Vehicle Concepts and Drive Technologies China 4,2 3,0 Latin America 4,1 2,8 Former Soviet Union 3,7 2,2 India 3,4 2,1 Middle East 3,1 1,9 Africa 2,8 1,9 Other Asia 2,7 1,7 Total 2,5 1,6 Eastern Europe 2,3 1,6 OECD North America 1,9 1,2 OECD Europe 1,9 1,0 OECD Pacific 1,8 0,7 0 1 2 3 4 5 Personal Transport Freight Transport • Globally Increasing Mobility • Passenger Transportation and Freight Traffic • In 2020 China displaces the USA as Country of the most Car Owners 9
  • 10. MEGATREND: GLOBALISATION 2.0 Globalisation - a Continuous Process From Global Trade to Cultural Globalisation Globalisation of Socio-Culture Globalisation of Firms and Work Globalisation of Politics Globalisation of Trade and Finance t-10 t-5 Today t+5 t+10 t+20 10
  • 11. MEGATREND: GLOBALISATION 2.0 • Shift to Asia • Creation of a Global Middle Class • Global Strategies with Local or Regional Adaptations • Innovation Blowback • New Partner Structures • Increasing Importance of Supra-National Institutions 11
  • 12. MEGATREND: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE • NBIC Convergence • Information and Nanotechnology as Central Convergence Driver • Impetus into many Fields of Application • Questions of “Limits to Innovation” Posed Specifically by Bioengineering “Design of the Human” BANG-DESIGN - Disruptive Technologies & Applications through Convergence 12
  • 13. MEGATREND: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY ANDBUSINESS-ECOSYSTEMS Change of Paradigm towards Open Innovation The End of „Not invented here“-Syndroms? 13
  • 14. MEGATREND: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY & BUSINESSECOSYSTEMS • Education and Training as a Fundament • Innovation as a Central Factor for Competition • The Rise of the Creative Class • Open Business/Innovation Systems & Networks and Business Mash-Ups • More Diverse Work Structures, Patchwork Work Biographies • New Value Added Networks • Platform-Based Economy 14
  • 15. 6 MEGATRENDS: CONCLUSIONS Megatrends Challenges for STI Policy • Climate Change Megatrends /Energy and •New Markets Energy / Resource Reversal Environment; Infrastructure & Mobility; Health • Demographic Change & Urbanisation •New Forms of Innovation • New Patterns of •Sustainability Drive Mobility •Change of Means of • Globalisation 2.0 Communication, Work, Value Creation, Modified Lifestyles, • Technology More Multi-Cultural Convergence Environments • Knowledge-Based Economy & Business- Ecosystems 15
  • 16. ADDENDUM: MEGATRENDSCornelia Daheim: 6 Key Trends Shaping Future SocietyZ_punkt GmbH . The Foresight Company | 14th Dec. 2009 16
  • 17. MEGATREND: HEALTH THRIVES • Rising Health Costs and Increasing Personal Responsibility • From Keeping Well to Health Style • Novel Food on the March • Resulting Converging Markets World Market for Nutraceuticals 2006-2010 16 15 5 , 0 15 14 6 , 0 Billion 14 13 5 ,7 US$ 13 12 96 , 12 3 , 7 12 11 1 0 2 6 00 2 007 2 8 00 2 9 00 2 1 0 0 17
  • 18. MEGATREND: CULTURAL DIVERSITY • Plural Ways of Life • Globally Competing Value Systems • Creation of Hybrid Cultures • Changing Multiple Gender Roles 18
  • 19. MEGATREND: BIOMIMICRY OR LEARNING FROM NATURE • Biology Becomes the Leading Science • Renaissance of Bionics • Sustainability as the Lead Paradigm • Cradle-to-Cradle-Economy as a Vision and Innovation Driver 19
  • 20. MEGATREND: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE • Progressive IT Revolution • Investment in Ambient Intelligence and Cloud Computing • Neuroscience, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics • Towards the Transparent Society 20
  • 21. MEGATREND: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD • Tertiarisation of (Post)-Industrial Economies • Making Work more Dynamic and Flexible • From Permanent Full-Time to Flexible and Self- Organised Work 21
  • 22. MEGATREND: WOMEN ON THE RISE • Greater Integration of Women in Professional Life • Participation as Market Stakeholders • Increasing Importance of Work-Life Balance 22
  • 23. MEGATREND: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER • Balancing of Powers • China and India Become World Powers • A New Dawn in Africa 23
  • 24. MEGATREND: GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY • World Risk Society • Privatisation of Security • Terrorism and Asymmetrical Conflicts 24
  • 25. MEGATREND: NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS • Increased Prosperity in the Third World • Catching-Up on Luxury in China, India and Russia • Sustainable Consumption Grows in the West 25
  • 26. MEGATREND: INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE • Individualism as a Global Phenomenon • Different Biographical Trends & Changing Relationship Networks • From Mass Market to Micro Markets 26
  • 27. MEGATREND: DIGITAL LIFESTYLE • Web 2.0: New Media Conquer Everyday Life • Digital Lifestyle and Virtual Business Worlds • Virtual Business • Augmented Reality 27