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    Sectoral innovation foresight Sectoral innovation foresight Document Transcript

    • Sectoral Innovation ForesightFood and Drinks SectorFinal ReportTask 2December 2010M. Leis, TNOG. Gijsbers,TNOF. van der Zee, TNO
    • Consortium Europe INNOVA SectoralInnovation WatchThis publication has been produced as part of the Europe INNOVA initiative. The views expressed inthis report, as well as the information included in it, do not necessarily reflect the opinion or position ofthe European Commission and in no way commit the institution.This publication is financed under the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme (CIP)which aims to encourage the competitiveness of European enterprises.
    • Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation WatchDetailed insights into sectoral innovation performance are essential for the development of effective innovationpolicy at regional, national and European levels. A fundamental question is to what extent and why innovationperformance differs across sectors. The second SIW project phase (2008-2010) aims to provide policy-makersand innovation professionals with a better understanding of current sectoral innovation dynamics across EuropeSIW Coordination: TNOCarlos Montalvo (carlos.montalvo@tno.nl) Annelieke van der Giessen (annelieke.vandergiessen@tno.nl)Central to the work of the Sectoral Innovation Watch is analysing trends in, and reporting on, innovationperformance in nine sectors (Task 1). For each of the nine sectors, the focus will be on identifying theinnovative agents, innovation performance, necessary skills for innovation, and the relationship betweeninnovation, labour productivity and skills availability.Sector Innovation Performance: Carlos Montalvo (TNO)Automotive: Michael Ploder (Joanneum Research) Knowledge Intensive Business Services: Christiane Hipp (BTU-Cottbus)Biotechnology: Christien Enzing (Technopolis) Space and Aeronautics: Annelieke van der Giessen (TNO)Construction: Hannes Toivanen (VTT) Textiles: Bernhard Dachs (AIT)Electrical and Optical Equipment: Tijs van den Broek Wholesale and Retail Trade: Luis Rubalcaba (Alcala) /(TNO) Hans Schaffers (Dialogic)Food and Drinks: Govert Gijsbers (TNO)The foresight of sectoral innovation challenges and opportunities (Task 2) aims at identifying markets andtechnologies that may have a disruptive effect in the nine sectors in the future, as well as extracting challengesand implications for European companies and public policy.Sector Innovation Foresight: Matthias Weber (Austrian Institute of Technology)Automotive: Karl Heinz Leitner (AIT) Knowledge Intensive Business Services: Bernhard Dachs (AIT)Biotechnology: Govert Gijsbers (TNO) Space and Aeronautics: Felix Brandes (TNO)Construction: Doris Schartinger (AIT) Textiles: Georg Zahradnik (AIT)Electrical and Optical Equipment: Tijs van den Broek Wholesale and Retail Trade: Susanne Giesecke (AIT)(TNO)Food and Drinks: Govert Gijsbers (TNO)Task 3 will identify and analyse current and potential bottlenecks that influence sectoral innovationperformance, paying special attention to the role of markets and regulations. Specifically, the analysis willcover the importance of the different factors in the propensity of firms to innovate.Role of markets and policy/regulation on sectoral patterns of innovation: Carlos Montalvo (TNO)Katrin Pihor (PRAXIS) Klemen Koman (IER)Task 4 concerns five horizontal, cross-cutting, themes related to innovation. The analyses of thesehorizontal themes will be fed by the insights from the sectoral innovation studies performed in the previous tasks.The horizontal reports will also be used for organising five thematic panels (Task 5). The purpose of thesepanels is to provide the Commission services with feedback on current and proposed policy initiatives.Horizontal reportsNational specialisation and innovation performance Fabio Montobbio (KITes) and Kay Mitusch (KIT-IWW)Organisational innovation in services Luis Rubalcaba (Alcala) and Christiane Hipp (BTU- Cottbus)Emerging lead markets Bernhard Dachs (AIT) and Hannes Toivanen (VTT)Potential of eco-innovation Carlos Montalvo and Fernando Diaz Lopez (TNO)High-growth companies Kay Mitusch (KIT-IWW)
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010ContentsExecutive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 31 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 72 Current situation ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Historical evolution of the sector – past and recent trends .............................................. 8 2.2 Sectoral characteristics and current innovation themes ......................................................... 10 2.2.1 Market organisation and market structure ...................................................... 10 2.2.2 Sub-segments................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Evolution, structure and current state of play - implications for future innovations ................. 123 Drivers of innovation and change ........................................................................................... 14 3.1 S&T drivers .................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 Epigenetics, nutrigenomics and neurosciences ............................................. 14 3.1.2 Miniaturisation, biotechnology and nanotechnology....................................... 15 3.1.3 Material sciences and intelligent packaging ................................................... 16 3.1.4 Automation, robotics and ICT ......................................................................... 16 3.2 Demand-side drivers and emerging product markets .................................................... 17 3.2.1 Aliments against ailments - health consciousness, disease and ageing........ 17 3.2.2 Food safety and consumer confidence .......................................................... 19 3.2.3 Ethical concerns and sustainability................................................................. 20 3.2.4 Convenience food and take away food/home delivery ................................... 20 3.2.5 Price consciousness, affordability and value for money................................. 21 3.2.6 Taste ............................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Intersection of S&T and demand-side drivers ................................................................ 23 3.3.1 Knowledge-Bio-Based-Economy (KBBE) ....................................................... 23 3.3.2 Consumer sensitivity as crucial factor ............................................................ 24 3.3.3 Innovation and technology as chance ............................................................ 254 Scenarios ................................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 26 4.2 Scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 28 4.2.1 Scenario 1: Business as usual (base-line scenario) ....................................... 28 4.2.2 Scenario 2: Going natural ............................................................................... 30 4.2.3 Scenario 3: Cheap & convenient .................................................................... 34 4.2.4 Scenario 4: High tech nutrition ....................................................................... 36 4.2.5 Scenario 5: Emergency .................................................................................. 39 4.3 Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................... 415 Emerging innovation themes and their requirements .......................................................... 43 5.1 New products, processes and technological trajectories ............................................... 43 5.1.1 Inputs from biotechnology and life sciences ................................................... 44 5.1.2 Improved functional foods ............................................................................. 47 5.1.3 Personalised diets .......................................................................................... 48 5.1.4 Medicinal food................................................................................................. 49 5.1.5 Cultured meat ................................................................................................. 51 5.1.6 Insect innovation ............................................................................................. 52 5.1.7 Innovations for fast- and convenience food .................................................... 53 5.1.8 Functional natural ingredients ........................................................................ 53 5.1.9 Nano-based food and beverage ingredients .................................................. 54 5.1.10 Smart food packaging with nanotechnology ................................................... 54 5.1.11 New food preservation methods ..................................................................... 55Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 1
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010 5.1.12 High pressure conservation (pascalisation) ................................................... 56 5.1.13 Pulsed electric fields ....................................................................................... 56 5.1.14 Antimicrobial systems for food preservation ................................................... 56 5.1.15 Converging technologies for food safety testing ............................................ 57 5.1.16 Reduction in energy, greenhouse gases and water consumption ................. 57 5.1.17 Miscellaneous: food pills, innovations from space research .......................... 59 5.1.18 Food automation ............................................................................................. 60 5.2 New markets due to societal developments .................................................................. 60 5.2.1 Lifestyle and market diversification................................................................. 60 5.2.2 Demographics – an ageing society ................................................................ 62 5.3 Organisational change and firm strategies .................................................................... 62 5.3.1 Knowledge transfer and open innovation ....................................................... 62 5.4 Establishing trust ............................................................................................................ 63 5.4.1 Flexibility and diversification ........................................................................... 64 5.4.2 Open innovation.............................................................................................. 65 5.4.3 User-driven and user-oriented innovation ...................................................... 65 5.4.4 E-marketing and advertisement (for SMEs) ................................................... 66 5.4.5 SMEs and the future structure of the food and beverage industry ................. 66 5.4.6 Promoting collaboration and a ‘culture of innovation’ ..................................... 66 5.5 Institutional and legal changes ....................................................................................... 67 5.5.1 Food labelling – increasing trust ..................................................................... 67 5.5.2 Global sourcing and standardised safety requirements – legislation and enforcement .................................................................................................... 67 5.5.3 Balance between precaution and innovation .................................................. 68 5.5.4 Establishing more trust in science and perform symmetric assessments ...... 68 5.5.5 Convergence between food and medicine? ................................................... 68 5.5.6 Education and training .................................................................................... 69 5.5.7 More scientific research and development ..................................................... 696 Policy Issues ............................................................................................................................. 71 6.1 Healthy Nutrition............................................................................................................. 71 6.1.1 Making foods and drinks generally more healthier ......................................... 71 6.1.2 Evidence-based assessment of functional food possibilities ......................... 71 6.1.3 Improvement of food safety ............................................................................ 72 6.1.4 Promoting healthy eating and healthy cooking ............................................... 72 6.2 Ecological Sustainability and Ethics............................................................................... 72 6.2.1 Reducing energy and water consumption ...................................................... 72 6.2.2 Ethics .............................................................................................................. 73 6.3 Economy and business .................................................................................................. 73 6.3.1 Affordability and quality .................................................................................. 73 6.3.2 Innovation for SMEs ....................................................................................... 73 6.3.3 Clusters and interdisciplinary cooperation ...................................................... 74References ........................................................................................................................................... 75Annex Workshop participants .......................................................................................................... 80Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 2
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Executive SummaryAlthough food and drinks are essential for human life, the food and beverage industry is generallyperceived as low-to-mid-technology sector as measured on common indicators for innovativeness andsupported by CIS4 data. In principal, however, there exist many innovation possibilities within the foodand beverage manufacturing industry that also include new products and new processing methods,tackling some major challenges like improving health, safety and sustainability. The pleasure andtraditions associated to food can also be a field of innovation.Currently the picture of the food and beverage industry as well as consumer choices seem to bemixed and interests range from preferences for natural and minimally processed foods and drinks over 1 2specialised and fortified and high-tech nutrition to a diversity of convenience and fast foods. Manydifferent factors such as economic prosperity, ecological consciousness, environmental problems,food safety concerns, importance of health, technological progress, acceptance of new technologyand economic prosperity can have an influence on the direction of consumer and industry choices.Built upon different parameters of the factors, different scenarios have been developed in this studythat depict contrasting development lines. Reality will likely not represent such a pure and extremecase as depicted, but these scenarios can represent tendencies of developments and help with theidentification of general chances and challenges. All scenarios are based on elements of current andemerging societal and technological developments that could become pronounced in the future ifcertain directions may be followed. This scientific, technological and societal basis is described inmore detail within the report under the chapter “Emerging Innovation Themes and theirRequirements”. The scenarios also serve as input for the discussion of policy issues andrecommendations.The following five scenarios have been drafted and assessed in regard to plausibility and feasibilitywith experts within the frame of a dedicated workshop.The scenarios will derive from the following assumptions considered as generally fixed within a short-to mid-term timeframe:  Increase in global population  Decline of population in many EU countries due to lower birth rates  Increasing life expectancy in EU countries (aging society)  Increases in scientific and technological knowledge and possibilitiesas well as the following parameters that vary between the different scenarios and make out the core oftheir differences:  Economic prosperity (on world, country and individual basis)1 Food enriched with additional vitamins, minerals and other nutrients2 Which can include “fortified food” (i.e. food enriched with additional vitamins, minerals and other nutrients) butalso special nutritional formulas and compositions e.g. for sports, special diets, emergency rations, military rationsor food substitutes.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 3
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010  Ecological consciousness  Environmental problems (occurrences like draughts, floods, extreme weather that could negatively affect food production)  Food safety concerns (high concerns within society vs. lower concerns)  Importance of health (high interest in healthy living vs. rather low interest, leading to problems like obesity)  Technological progress as function of socio-economic factors that lead to the real application of knowledge and possibilitiesBusiness as usualThis is the reference scenario that depicts the current diversity and huge differences in the food and 3beverage industry ranging from highly fortified and functional food over the trend of natural andorganic products to fast food and food with no considerable nutritional value or even harmfulingredients. This scenario does not score high on overall innovativeness, although some sectors (e.g.functional food) will have great potential while others more or less continue their way of only small and 4incremental improvements in the future. Within society larger gaps may develop between healthy andunhealthy eaters which will also be reflected in individual health. All other scenarios depict situationswhere one of the describe elements may become more prominent.Going naturalThis scenario depicts the growing tendency towards foods products perceived as natural byconsumers and less food processing. Many innovation potentials like the utilisation of geneticallymodified organisms (GMO) or nanoparticles in food production as well as other high-tech experimentsare generally not popular with the consumer. But also conventional “fast food” that is consideredunhealthy will be more and more replaced by other fast alternatives such as salads or fruit. Here,innovations mainly lie in finding ways to process food with healthier ingredients (e.g. natural foodadditives) or improved testing and process automation. A growing consumer concern over theenvironment and ethics (e.g. animal rights, fair trade etc.) are driving factors. This scenario is morelikely under the condition higher economic prosperity and greater concern over health issues. But itcan also become more likely if the perception of ‘’industrial food’’ and industrial food producersbecomes more negative. This can for example be due to food scandals or the uncovering of relationsbetween certain ingredients commonly used in processed food and health risks (e.g. cancer, obesityetc.).Cheap and convenientThis scenario reflects a setting where the general prosperity as well as interest in health, future andinnovation is declining. Contradicting information about nutritional health benefits as well as scientific3 Functional food is defined by the European Commission/JRC as follows: “Functional food (FuFo) is defined asfood that is taken as part of the usual diet and has beneficial effects that go beyond nutritional effects.”http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=17194 Meaning rather slight improvements over time than sudden and large “revolutionary” or “disruptive” changes.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 4
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010fraud combined with higher budget consciousness leads to a growing disinterest of consumers inhealthy nutrition. Budget (for some involuntarily), fastness, convenience and indulgence are majordrivers. Resources for innovation are rather scarce and companies are mostly interested in costreduction. In extreme cases this could lead to very problematic implications for health and theenvironment. “Cheap and convenient” may become a growing trend for low income groups and peoplewho lack sufficient knowledge about nutrition or time for adequate food preparation. Major problemsassociated with this scenario are obesity and environmental problems.High-tech nutritionIn this scenario technological progress is fast and developments from different disciplines frombiotechnology to material science are influencing innovations in food and beverage manufacturing.The consumers tend to increasingly accept novel technologies in the area of food and drinks. Healthimprovement beyond just healthy nutrition stands in the centre of interest, which is considered to beachievable only through advanced technological modifications of food and beverage products thateven result in medicinal food. This scenario requires economic prosperity as well as high interest innovel technologies. It also bears the potential danger of being too optimistic and thus overlookingpotential negative side effects and may face challenges if problems may occur.EmergencyThis scenario depicts a situation where some of the basic requirements of food security (availabilityand accessibility) are in jeopardy where the main goal for solutions and innovations lies in gettingenough food. The “emergency” scenario is certainly a kind of worst case scenario, but if sustainabilitywill be neglected, this could become a realistic outcome. Current trends in desertification and relianceon monocultures in large scale agriculture already seem to point towards this direction and in manycountries around the world the situation for food security and safe drinking water is already bad andstill worsening.ImplicationsFood and drinks are essential for human life and more and more research emphasises the importanceof nutrition for personal and public health. Therefore the food and beverage manufacturing industry (aswell as the up- and downstream industries) holds great responsibility for human health and wellbeingas well sustainability. Solutions for current challenges such as obesity and other food-related illnesses,age-related conditions, contradicting findings in nutritional research, cost pressure and loopholes infood safety should be addressed in the coming years with the help of social, economic andtechnological innovations. To achieve these goals, interdisciplinary research and development isnecessary, e.g. by involving food technologists, biologists, chemists, physicists, health specialists andmedical experts as well as psychologists, sociologists and cultural scientists.In the principal technological possibilities in the area of food and beverage production are high andeven growing. The major challenge, however, lies in bringing these possibilities in line with customerinterests as well as solving current challenges and fostering the developments towards desirableEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 5
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010futures. Although “desirable” could mean different things for different people, it can be said thatimprovements towards the following directions can generally be considered as positive and desirable:  A general trend towards more healthier nutrition and related research and development;  An evidence-based assessment of functional foods on health and wellbeing;  Affordable food with good quality and nutritional value;  Further improvements in food safety;  A reduction of environmental impacts associated with all steps within the food chain (from farm to fork);  A general promotion of and education about healthy eating and healthy cooking;  Making food consumption more enjoyable, fostering culinary diversity and protecting culinary traditions;Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 6
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20101 IntroductionThis report presents the findings of the Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Foresight on the food anddrinks sector.As a Foresight activity, it addresses medium- to long-term strategic issues for the future developmentof European industries. It thus aims at looking beyond time horizons that can be addressed by simplyextrapolating current trends. While for fast-changing sectors this may imply a time horizon of five toten years, for others a much longer time horizon may be a more appropriate orientation. In the case ofthe food and drinks sector, a time horizon of about ten years has been used as orientation.The objectives of the Sectoral Innovation Foresight are to identify the main drivers of change in thenine sectors under study, to identify innovation themes and associated markets that may jointly have asignificant impact on these sectors, and to develop scenario sketches as frames for exploringvariations in innovation themes and emerging markets. In addition, the enabling and hamperingfactors in the respective sectoral innovation systems have been investigated in order to extractchallenges and implications for European companies and public policy.The final report builds on the findings of a critical review of secondary sources as well insightsgenerated at two Sectoral Innovation Foresight Workshops, organised in June and December 2009 inBrussels. We would like to gratefully acknowledge the contributions of the workshop participants (seeAnnex). Their inputs made it possible to gain new insights into different dimensions of future sectoraldevelopments, and we have extensively drawn on these contributions when compiling this report.However, in order to ensure the overall coherence of the report not all the suggestions raised at theworkshops could be taken into account.Based on an analysis of the current situation (chapter 2) drivers of innovation and change arepresented (chapter 3) in this report. These drivers encompass emerging trends and trend-breaks interms of S&T developments and changing needs/demands, both internal and external to the sectorsunder study. Based on the identified main drivers, scenarios for the development of the sectors arepresented (chapter 4). For each scenario, key innovation themes are then discussed which are seenas the results of the interplay of S&T developments and changing needs under a specific context(chapter 5). In addition, emerging markets associated to such key innovation themes are described. Inthis context, requirements and/or impacts in terms of skills requirements, organizational and structuralchanges are discussed. Finally, in chapter 6 issues for policy are discussed against the background ofscenarios and innovation themes.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 7
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20102 Current situationAlthough food and drinks are essential for human life, the food and beverage industry is generallyperceived as low-to-mid-technology sector as measured on common indicators for innovativenesssuch as R&D expenditure, patenting and new product development (cf. e.g., OECD, STAN R&Ddatabase, Hirsch-Kreinsen, 2006) and supported by CIS4 data. In general, innovations in food anddrinks are expected to happen in incremental steps without sudden innovation leaps and majorchanges, especially when it comes to products.2.1 Historical evolution of the sector – past and recent trends5Early examples for food and drinks manufacturing (in the sense of specialised production ofagricultural products outside the context of private homes) can be traced back to over 4000 years ago. 6Indications for early “industrialised” beer brewery can be found in up to 5000 year old Mesopotamian , 7Egyptian and Chinese records. Similar accounts have been found for wine. These records alsorepresent instances of ancient biotechnology by using yeast (a microorganism) for the fermentingprocess. The use of modern biotechnology (genetic engineering) in food processing started in theearly 1980s.Food and drinks processing has also always stood in close relation to advances in agriculture and thedevelopment of cities and division of labour. Therefore it is useful to keep the whole food chain – fromfarm to fork – in mind. Also progressing insights in relation between chemistry, biotechnology andphysics (especially thermal procedures) has been very important for food and drinks manufacturingand preservation, ranging from ancient breweries to the invention of pasteurisation in 1862.Although early forms of food processing date back to ancient times where raw agricultural materialswere modified simple by technical means (e.g. drying, salting, fermenting), the modern, industrialised th thfood and drinks manufacturing of the 19 and 20 century has mainly developed within the military 8context . Nicolas Appert, for example invented the vacuum bottling technique in 1806 for the foodsupply of French troops, an invention that led to the development of tinning and canning by PeterDurand in 1810. A very important factor for large-scale food and drinks manufacturing has been theIndustrial Revolution. Mass production techniques enabled strong changes in retail with the firstsupermarkets being introduced in the mid-1910s, coinciding with considerable innovations in transportand logistics. This in turn engendered changes in the food and drinks industry.The real boom in large-scale manufacturing of foods and drinks appeared during the 1950s and1960s. This time experienced much experimentation and innovation in food and drinks, but also inmany other fields of science and technology. The so-called “TV-dinners” and ready meals were5 http://www.eufic.org/article/en/food-technology/gmos/rid/modern-biotechnology-food-development/ andhttp://www.foodtimeline.org/food1.html6 http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-16035893.html7 http://www.germanbeerinstitute.com/history.html8 http://www.foodinnovation.org.uk/view/Food_and_drink_industry/Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 8
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010introduced in 1953, the artificial sweetener aspartame was discovered in 1965, and the first microwaveovens for home use were introduced in 1967. The soft-drink industry was born in the 1960, slowlyreplacing the traditional soda stores and vendors. This shows how developments in the food anddrinks industry already then closely related to developments in other sectors (retail, restaurants) aswell as new technologies such as TV-sets and microwave ovens, and welfare driven life-style changeslike the rise of fast food and ready meals.But these developments also brought about societal criticism on new food and beverage productionmethods and techniques as well as newly invented ingredients. The case of saccharin, one of theartificial ingredients, serves as an example. After being introduced in the 1960s, ten year later in the1970s the US FDA already considered banning it again because laboratory tests have shown that highdoses of saccharin increased the incidence of urinary bladder cancer in rats. The ban did not gothrough, but a warning label was required. This was also due to the fact that the doses used in thetests were high and it remained controversial if the results of mice were transferable to humanphysiology.Later developments, such as the introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMO) and moregenerally the rise of biotechnology are proof of new and innovative developments, but have also led tosocietal concerns. Genetic modification in crops which started in the early 1980s (the first recordedGMO plant was an experimental tobacco plant in 1983) as well as animal cloning have led tocontroversies and even bans. The latest developments in nanotechnology for food packaging give riseto similar reactions. At the same time, biotechnology – and perhaps even GMO - can provide us withmore predictable processes, better primary production, new inspection methods and healthier, safer 9and sometimes even tastier food.Criticism about the ‘industrial’ image of food and drinks (industrialisation) has grown since the 1980sand has coincided with increasing attention towards the environment (‘green’ movement) andsustainability issues, health and quality over quantity (slow food as a reaction to fast food). It alsosignifies the beginning of the current trend towards organic, natural, fresh and unprocessed foods anddrinks, and an increasing focus on local and fair trade products and ethical concerns by consumers.Whereas at some time the optical appearance of food – symmetric form, beautiful colour andflawlessness – has been highly regarded and thus has been enhanced by food colouring, additivesand even GMO, today too much ‘perfection’ makes many consumers suspicious by indicating non-naturalness.Health concerns, and more particularly current challenges such as obesity, other diet-related illnesses,allergies, chronic diseases and aging have also stimulated the emergence of new generations of 10functional foods and drinks. Thus, consumer preferences in no way point towards the same9 A taste of the future: research’s role in tomorrow’s food development. Presentation Janez Potocnik, Brussels, 17April 200710 A food can be regarded as functional if it is satisfactorily demonstrated to beneficially affect one or more targetfunctions in the body, beyond adequate nutritional effects, in a way which is relevant to either an improved stateof health or well-being, or reduction of risk of disease (ILSI, 2002).Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 9
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010direction. Mainstream trends such as an increasing consumption of convenience foods like pre-packaged and processed foods and drinks, easy to consume products (e.g. “TV dinners”), snacking,fast food, take-away food and out-of-home consumption are likely bound to continue, whereas alsohere health consciousness may get bigger. Fast food chains like McDonalds, for example, areincreasingly advertising with a more health and “natural” image (e.g. no additives in their beef 11products, salads on their menu, providing calorie tables and “going green” ). Other choices,especially in the context of active lifestyles, enjoyment, wellness as well as environmental and socialconcerns have – as a result of steadily rising incomes – also become important consumer trends thatimportantly affect food and beverage sales and consumption.2.2 Sectoral characteristics and current innovation themes2.2.1 Market organisation and market structureThe agro-food sector – i.e. agriculture and the food processing (‘manufacturing’) industry – hastraditionally been characterised by a high degree of governmental intervention, ranging from marketregulation and financial support for farmers to strong safety and health provisions. It also is a sectorthat is critically watched by consumers and consumer advocacy groups. Recent organisationalinnovations such as the introduction of integrated supply chains (‘from farm to fork’), early warningsystems, quality assurance schemes (labelling) and tracking and tracing, together with increased riskmonitoring and assessment by independent food authorities (EFSA, national food authorities) have ledto increased accountability and have added to consumer confidence, although some criticism remains.The food and beverage manufacturing industry is dominated by micro-enterprises with less than 10employees that make up 78.6% of all firms. Yet 0.9% of large companies (250 employees and above)account for more than 50% of the total turnover generated in the food and beverage manufacturingindustry. The largest food and beverage companies are also global players and some of them likeUnilever produce food as well as non-food products. Whether and how this fragmented structure witha large share of micro- and small firms affects innovation and innovation performance is less clear,however. The Community Innovation Survey (CIS), one of the most important sources on innovationtrends and performance in industry, does not collect information at the micro-enterprise level, whichimplies that information on the innovative behaviour of almost 80% of all firms in food and drinksmanufacturing at EU level is not available, at least not in a manner that allows consistent comparisonsacross countries and between sub-sectors.In regard to the employment situation, over 61% of the workforce is employed by SMEs and the foodand beverage manufacturing sector is characterised by a comparatively small share of highereducated and qualified scientific personnel as compared to other sectors. The sector is considered amature industry which is generally perceived conservative and rather inert towards more radicalchanges. This “old fashioned” image, which is however partly outdated in many respects, is stillpresent in the minds of many people and one of the major reasons for the low attractiveness of the11 Cf.: Korea Times 2008: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/11/123_33884.htmlEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 10
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010sector to a higher educated workforce. Many consumers on the other hand display scepticism towardsinnovations that include extensive artificial modification of food products and thus causing theproducers to stick with well-established product lines while performing rather minor improvements anddevelop items with less ‘artificial’ ingredients.Therefore the food and drinks sector includes a wide array of products, some traditional, some newand innovative. Most innovation in food and drinks is of incremental (i.e. small stepwise improvementsover time) nature. Innovation in the food and drinks domain is and has always been closely linked todevelopments in other sectors of the economy. Throughout history, food and drinks manufacturing hasbeen dependent on (innovative) developments in agriculture. In more recent history preservation andconservation, packaging, logistics and transport and wholesale and retail trade have becomeimportant factors in the development of the foods and drinks industry, followed more recently byinformation and communication technologies (ICT) innovations like radio frequency identification(RFID) tracking, biotechnology and nanotechnology. Many innovations in the food and drinks industryincorporate a combination of different innovations that can include the way a product is produced orprocessed (biotech, nanotech), packaged, distributed and sold. Other can result in entirely newproducts such as functional foods. Marketing and advertisement play a very important role in gettingthe consumer’s attention to buy foods and drinks and stay with certain manufacturers, products andlabels. Especially drinks are often advertised in the context of pop-concerts, sports events, youthculture activities, clubs and discotheques.2.2.2 Sub-segmentsAccording to the NACE-code classification (Rev 1.1), the food and drinks sector can be divided intothe following categories or sub-sectors:Table 1.1 Categories of the food and drinks sector 15 Manufacture of food products and beverages 15.1 Production, processing and preserving of meat and meat products 15.2 Processing and preserving of fish and fish products 15.3 Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables 15.4 Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats 15.5 Manufacture of dairy products 15.6 Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products 15.7 Manufacture of prepared animal feeds 15.8 Manufacture of other food products 15.9 Manufacture of beveragesAlthough in each sub-sector both traditional and non-traditional products can be found, certain NACEcategories appear more suitable for certain kinds of innovation than others. Innovations in relation totraditional products are much less oriented towards changing the product itself (since it may then nolonger be the traditional recipe or product anymore) but can involve new processing methods andmarketing strategies. Product innovations on the other hand bring about new products or considerableEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 11
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010changes to existing products. Product innovations tend to be found more within the categories of dairyproducts (e.g. functional yoghurts, ice creams), sweet and savoury spreads, grain and mill products(cereals, sports- and energy bars), instant drinks and drinks, where a wide palette of functional waters, 12‘superfruit’ juices or energy drinks is already available. This also holds for alcoholic drinks as it isseen in the popularity of the recently introduced (and controversially discussed) light alcoholic drinksand mixes (e.g. breezers) and natural and organic alcoholic drinks with both segments being regarded 13as highly innovative and suitable for experimentation .2.3 Evolution, structure and current state of play - implications forfuture innovationsDue to the nature of the industry and the products, and by looking at past innovation performance, itcan be expected that innovation in the food and drinks industry will continue in a gradual, step-by-stepmanner, with sudden radical innovations or “quantum leaps” not likely to be expected over the next 15-20 years. Technological developments that are rather unproblematic in other industrial sectors, like theuse of (advanced) nanotechnology for materials (see the aerospace or textile industry), are likely tocause more problems and concerns from consumers and regulators when it comes to food andbeverage products.In regard to food and beverage products the main hampering factors towards innovation andexperimentation with novel concepts are not expected due to lacking scientific and technologicaldevelopments as such, but rather due to consumer concerns.Food science can actually be regarded as a form of material science. In contrast to most otherproducts, food and drinks are digested by humans and therefore have to comply with highest safetystandards and fulfil a wide range of sensual satisfaction to please the consumer. Often these tworequirements can conflict with each other: what is considered to make foods and drinks tasteful maypose some health concerns. The complexity of foods and drinks often exceeds other materials andend-products can include a diversity of structures such as foams, complex fluids, gels and glasses thatare made of polymers, proteins, crystals and other molecular structures. If one would simply take outthe fat of sausages (certainly a healthier choice), for example, the product would not taste good,because it would be very dry, have an unappealing texture and flavours could not unfold properly.Therefore the creation of new and healthier foods and drinks requires considerable know-how,research and experimentation, because every component has a certain function and may not be leftout without consequences. In this sense, leaving out a substance or finding a suitable naturalsubstitute could be very innovative.At least part of the food and beverage industry is on the brink transformation - or has already beentransformed - from a low-to-medium tech industry to a medium-to-high tech industry. Novel foods and12 “Superfruit” refers to a marketing term used to describe fruits that possess special nutritional value that isconsidered to be beneficial for health and wellbeing like high amounts of antioxidants or vitamins.13 This is also reflected within the Eurostat CIS4 indicators for innovation activities.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 12
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010functional foods are cases in point. At the same time, important parts of the food and beveragemanufacturing industry are still very much based on and rooted in tradition and conventional foodproducts. Some manufacturing processes and recipes are handed over from generation to generationand are still practiced in such a traditional way. It is not unlikely that the apparent divide between high-tech innovative and low-tech tradition within the sector is likely to get bigger. In a similar vein, wemight expect that the segmentation of markets will continue further, driven by different lifestyles,internationalisation and diverging income developments and leading to a broad variety in consumerdemand – ranging from convenience food and functional foods and drinks over alcopops, breezersand ‘lifestyle’ products to ecologically-oriented foods and drinks and ethnic and traditional products. Incontrast to other industries like electronics or automobiles, the absence of innovative products fromfood and beverage manufacturers does not necessarily mean unsuccessful sales and products.In general it could be said that the technological possibilities in food and beverage manufacturing aremuch larger than what may be acceptable and not everything that can be scientifically ortechnologically done in food and beverage manufacturing will also be wanted, legal and successful.Also certain technological solutions for specific demands and consumer wishes may not be accepted.Although there is demand for functional food with additional health benefits, using certainbiotechnologies (such as GMOs), nanotechnologies (e.g. nano-encapsulation for improved bio-availability) or what may be generally considered as “artificiality” for achieving this goal may not bedesirable.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 13
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20103 Drivers of innovation and changeIn regard to the possible differences between technological possibilities and consumer acceptance,some major developments in R&D and science and technology will make the start. Afterwards somemajor demand-side drivers will be outlined that will be brought together in the section about innovationthemes and requirements, where also possible conflicts between technological means and consumergoals are reflected upon.3.1 S&T driversThe food and beverage manufacturing industry profits a lot from research and development that isbeing conducted in (emerging) science and technology (S&T) fields like chemistry and physics (e.g. inregard to separation techniques), molecular bio(techno)logy, medicine, ICT, material sciences,nanotechnology, robotics (for processing and automation) and even neurosciences. A very importantcontribution is the growing interest in and growing understanding of the workings of the human bodyand biological systems in general (e.g. in regard to food spoilage and preservation).A real science-based analysis of food and drinks on a fundamental and molecular basis has only beenmade possible rather recently through improving insights in biotechnology, genetic research and theavailability of the necessary computer power and laboratory equipment. Many technological andscientific challenges for the improvement of food and beverage products still remain, but it is likely thatscience will gradually find solutions to them.Future advances in science and technology coming from areas outside the food and drinks sector,even though some are related to the industry, will most likely have a continuing strong impact on thedevelopment of the sector.3.1.1 Epigenetics, nutrigenomics and neurosciencesImproved understanding about biological systems and the human body matters for the futuredevelopment of the food and drinks industry. As our understanding about genetics is growing, newscientific research is showing that environmental factors like the intake of certain foods and drinks canin fact have influences on gene expression, i.e. influence if certain gene may become active or not.Such insights could lead to new forms of nutrition engineering or even change the way we are thinkingabout the role of food and drinks in our lives.Research going on in genetics, epigenetics, metabolomics (science about metabolism), proteomics(science about the function and structure of proteins) and similar areas have already created theresearch field of nutrigenomics, which studies the effects of nutrition on genes and metabolicfunctions. A very important contribution that makes such research possible comes from advances incomputer sciences that bioinformatics which enable the necessary complex calculations andsimulations (e.g. in regard to protein-protein interactions).Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 14
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010New and cheaper possibilities for gene mapping and molecular biology are already emerging as themost computing-intensive tasks in human history (Forbes, 2009). Dropping prices and speed 14increases in genome sequencing – which might come for 1000 US$ around 2014 – will also be animportant basis for possible personalised foods and drinks that are matched to an individual’s geneticmakeup. However, scientists are currently only at the beginning of understanding the real implicationsand meanings of sequenced genome data. Personalised functional food, although not impossible, islikely to take some time until reality and economic feasibility.Also research in neuroscience could provide the basis for the development of new foods aimed atinducing specific neuronal states like happiness, calmness or improved concentration achieved withthe help of specific ingredients. Researchers are, for example, unravelling the neurochemical effectsof chocolate and try to give a scientific basis to so-called “mood foods”.It has also been suggested in research that different combinations of foods and drinks can influencehow nutrients are being utilised in the human body. This could lead, for example, to science-basedcombinations of items in ready meals, leading to healthier overall compounds. Such insights couldalso lead to new forms of marketing innovations, e.g. by providing consumers with science-basedrecommendations for side dishes, vegetables or spices based on their choices being made whileshopping (e.g. the nutrients of this fish are best digested when eaten together with these vegetablesand spices) or composing ready meals based on science.3.1.2 Miniaturisation, biotechnology and nanotechnologyHumans are able to observe and manipulate matter on an increasingly small scale. They are now 15leaving the micro-level and are entering the even smaller nano-scale .Our increasingly better understanding of molecular biology and modern biotechnology also leads tobetter knowledge about the mechanisms behind food contamination and spoilage and also enablenew ways to improve preservation and food safety. So-called lab-on-a-chip modules, which combinetechnologies from ICT, nanotechnology and biotechnology, allow for fast and mobile food testing for avariety of pathogens, bacteria and contamination.Genetic engineering principally allows for the creation of plants (and animals) with some optimisedcharacteristics like increased vitamin level or higher yields, or enable possibilities to get rid ofallergens. Even totally new or modified organisms could be created that may be used to fight offharmful bacteria or produce functional ingredients.As it is the case in other fields of material sciences, nanotechnology also opens up new possibilitiesfor the food and beverage industry. They range from improvements of texture over targeted nutritionand flavour enhancement through “nano-encapsulation” to smart packaging for more safety.14 http://harvardmagazine.com/2007/03/a-personal-genome-machin.html15 "Nano-scale" refers to objects of a size close to 1 nanometre, i.e. = one-billionth of a meter. The "micro-level"refers to micrometre, which equals one-millionth of a meter or 1000 nanometres.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 15
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Nanotechnology can be used in food processing (e.g. nano-encapsulation of nutrients, nano-emulsions), food packaging (e.g. barrier materials, antibiotic packaging, smart packaging) and sensor 16systems for food safety testing .Although operating on the nanometre-scale is nothing new in food production, many consumers andconsumer advocacy/protection groups are concerned about “nano” in food. Since some elementsreally show different reaction characteristics on the nano-scale in contrast to larger particle andcompound sizes and nano may enter the blood stream and cross the brain-blood barrier more easily,the issue requires careful scientific evaluation.3.1.3 Material sciences and intelligent packagingEspecially the area of food packaging benefits from general advances in material sciences. Anti-bioticmaterials, heat/cold resistant materials, eco-friendly packaging and even edible packaging havealready been developed or are under development. Edible packaging may pose some problems inregard to hygiene if really intended to be eaten, but at least such products will put no harm to theenvironment since they are digestible and biodegradable.Also in line with food sciences being understood as a kind of material science, technologies used inmodern material development and testing like simulations might also be of use for food and drinksmanufacturing. For example, the raw materials coming from farming are always different incomposition, which necessitates changes in processing and ingredients to yield constant andsatisfactory results. Computer simulations could be used to analyse and predict the behaviour ofingredients, physical and chemical properties and even the spread of micro-organisms.3.1.4 Automation, robotics and ICTAs robots are becoming increasingly flexible, versatile and “intelligent” as well as cheaper, they arealso getting much more attention from the food and beverage manufacturing industry. According tostatistics from the World Robotics Report 2008, the food and beverage industry is currently 17responsible for major increases in demands for industrial robots (World Robotics, 2008).Beside the indirect contribution of ICT in regard to calculations in the bio- and nutritional sciences, ICTtechnology is becoming an important part of logistics (e.g. in transports and fast-food-management)and food chain management. RFID-technology allows for consistent traceability and fast productidentification and is also part of smart packaging concepts.16 http://www.foodsafetymagazine.com/article.asp?id=3598&sub=sub217 http://www.worldrobotics.org/downloads/2008_executive_summary.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 16
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20103.2 Demand-side drivers and emerging product marketsThe Strategic Research Agenda 2007-2020 of the European Technology Platform on Food for Life 18addresses three major action points (‘key thrusts’) (ETP, 2008: 5) :  Improve health, wellbeing and longevity  Build consumer trust in the food chain  Support sustainable and ethical production.The key action points reflect the major issues that are being addressed by the European food industryand underline the need for developing new processes, products and tools in order to improvecompetitiveness. They are defined in anticipation of today’s and tomorrow’s consumer and societalpreferences.In the coming years the familiar, more or less predictable body of mass consumers of the present willmore and more turn into smaller, narrowly defined target groups each with their own agenda, interestsand preferences. The future is likely to consist of consumers that will increasingly demand everythingat the same time, but also more tailoring to individual needs (e.g. Martin, 2007).The figure below represents a number of demand ‘attributes’ (dimensions) each of which pose and willcontinue to pose challenges for the food and drinks industry.3.2.1 Aliments against ailments - health consciousness, diseaseand ageingPeople are expecting more from their food and drinks than just satisfying their hunger and thirst. Foodand drinks are seen as an integral part for improving health and wellbeing.Consumers seem to get increasingly health conscious – and at least more concerned - about theirintake of foods and drinks. This can be observed not only in the growing interest in functional foods,but even more in the current trend towards natural and organic foods and scepticism about syntheticingredients.Box 3.1 Functional foodsFunctional foods (i.e. food that has added beneficial effects that go beyond nutritional effects) have a rather longhistory. In some cultures, especially China and India, the distinction between foods, drinks and medicine has notbeen very distinct. Although Japan is generally regarded as the birthplace of functional food, prominent Europeanand US examples can also be named. Coca-Cola, for example was invented in 1886 by the pharmacist JohnPemberton and was advertised as containing cola nuts which were thought to have nerve stimulant properties. In1904 the “fitness drink” Ovomaltine was invented and marketed as having positive effects on fatigue. Over time,these drinks have further developed, but they still exist as “functional drinks”. In 1935 the Japanese physicianShirota invented the lactobacillus casei with the help of (conventional) biotechnology for use in the first probioticyogurt drink “Yakult”. In this sense he can be seen as the forefather of today’s functional and probiotic dairyproducts manufactured with the help of modern biotechnology or classical methods. During the 1980s, theJapanese government has approved so-called “Food for Specified Health Use” (FOSHU) and contributed to thefollowing popularity of such products in Europe, starting in the 1990. In 2007, the European Health Claimregulation has been initiated which regulates and restricts health-related claims on foods and drinks.18 See also the ETP’s “Implementation Action Plan”.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 17
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010As the life expectancy of people increases, so does the probability of age-related diseases andailments. Since the bodily constitution and metabolism of elderly people change, other kinds ofnutrition and nutritional balances are required for this age group. This has already led to theintroduction of a new profession: gerontological nutritionist. Food companies are also already reactingtowards this new and growing set of consumers. The interest is also growing on the “preventative”.Much scientific research is being conducted in the area of identifying foods and ingredients that canslow down aging-effects like cellular damage or physical and mental degeneration. However someclaims being made are not based on sufficient and/or accepted scientific evaluation. The currentstriving for improving “healthy aging” is a big driver for food innovations. Still, the huge problems ofobesity and other diet-related illnesses tend to increase, even to such an extent that according tosome the steady rise in life expectancy may come to an end (e.g. Martin, 2007).Currently, however, especially fast-food chains and fast-food products like pizza as well as snacks areheavily criticised as a reason for obesity, imbalanced nutrition and so-called “civilisation illnesses” liketype-II diabetes. Fast food chains, especially McDonald’s, have started to react and are nowadvertising with being more health conscious, offering salads and presenting themselves as caring forthe environment. Another reason for obesity may also lie in the fact that most people in today’s post-industrialised countries need fewer calories due to their work that requires less physical activity andburning of calories. Besides this, the industry is not responsible for the consumer’s eating and cookinghabits.The interest in healthy eating and drinking is huge and currently there exists a wide variety of partlycontradicting advices concerning this topic. Science-based approaches towards more healthy foodsand drinks could represent a big contribution. To meet this goal, a better understanding about therelationships between nutrition and health effects is necessary. Progress in modern bio(techno)logy isof great importance.Box 3.2 Health aspects of alcoholic drinksHealth issues are getting increasing importance, also with alcoholic drinks. Organic alcoholic drinks gainincreasing popularity. Red wine also got a healthy image, because of its anti-oxidant ingredient resveratrol thatmay help to prevent cancer. By using genetic engineering, students from Rice University (US) have developed abeer that contains resveratrol. In January 2010, however, new scientific findings strongly suggest that resveratroldoes not prevent or slow down age-related cell damage as assumed before.19 This is also an example for theuncertainties that still exist in nutritional research.At the same time, the popularity of the recently introduced light alcoholic drinks and mixes (e.g. breezers) havearisen considerable attention. Increasingly these drinks are being consumed by young adults (below 18 years ofage) and even children, with considerable potential health impacts. This has brought governments to respond andstart awareness campaigns to emphasise the negative side of alcohol consumption, especially for the young. Newproducts, especially in the segment of alcoholic drinks are often first introduced over bars, clubs, restaurants anddiscotheques before entering supermarkets or specialty stores. Ways to reduce the negative effects of alcohol oraccelerate the decomposition of alcohol in the body are welcome and innovative ideas, which however have notyet been achieved reliably.Financial and other incentives that stimulate healthy lifestyles and ditto consumption patterns getincreasing attention. As an example serves VGZ, one of the largest Dutch health insurers, who since19 http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18396-stay-young-on-red-wine-drugs-think-again.htmlEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 18
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20102005 reimburses clients who use Unilever’s cholesterol-lowering Becel pro-active products, becauseof the products’ beneficial health effects (Unilever, 2005). Scientific research and evidence play animportant role in such bonus/reward schemes. This example reveals some underlying and interestingdevelopments that might become even more common in the future: the blurring border betweenfunctional foods and medicine, the scientific trust in functional foods and new alliances between foodand beverage manufacturers and other sectors (e.g. health insurers). Similarly, the German healthsystem reform envisages health insurance bonus systems for adopting a healthy lifestyle, while non-compliance, for example by diabetics refusing doctor’s advice, will be punished by means of 20supplementary payments (e.g. Müller, 2007).Food allergies are on the rise and can have grave limiting effects on quality of life. As more and morecustomers are experiencing food allergies or food intolerance, the food and beverage industry has toreact by adjusting the choice of ingredients, labelling or finding ways to engineer foods and drinks thatdo not contain allergens (if no medical treatment for allergies can be provided).3.2.2 Food safety and consumer confidenceOne of the most important factors for consumers is food safety. Food scandals, the selling of spoiledfood and contaminations are affecting consumers and the food industry alike and lead to consumersloosing trust in the industry and retailers. The call for safe food is loud, due to food scares andscandals of the past. Globalisation and world-wide sourcing increasingly call for better tracking andtracing by the industry as well as improving health and safety monitoring and control. Independentgovernmental agencies (viz. the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and national agencies) playan increasingly important role in securing the safety of food and drinks. This requires the drawing ofclear and transparent roles and responsibilities, alongside with a system of appropriate checks andbalances.Improvements in fast and real-time testing and monitoring “from farm to fork” can be realised with acombination of ICT (e.g. RFID tagging), nanotechnology (smart sensors on packages), biotechnologyand material sciences through improved preservation, better packaging, smart sensing and testingand global traceability (tracking and tracing) and food chain management. Important milestones havealready been set, but even more can be done, especially at a global scale.Safety is very much a matter of organisation within the value chain. Retailers have taken much of a 21lead here and have been very active in setting up integral chain management (e.g. the EurepGAPlabel – European Retailer Produce Good Agricultural Practice, recently transformed into ‘Global GAP’– Global Good Agricultural Practice). Since retailers are the last actors in the food and beverage valuechain, they are very dependent on the input and quality of the food industry, agriculture (especially inregard to raw fruits and vegetables), safety analysis and logistics (e.g. correct storage of products).20 http://www.unilever.nl/onsbedrijf/nieuwsenmedia/persberichten/2005/BecelproactivwordtvergoeddoorZorgverzekeraarVGZ.asp21 EurepGAP is a private sector body that sets voluntary standards for the certification of agricultural productsaround the globe.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 19
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Food scandals or other kinds of consumer dissatisfaction with certain products are affecting retailersto a high degree, since many customers regard them as responsible.Therefore the future might make food safety more challenging, especially in face of globalisation andcomplex food chains, but technology can also help to improve food safety within complexconstellations, e.g. through better tracking, surveillance and testing methods.3.2.3 Ethical concerns and sustainabilityEnvironmental pollution, the unrestricted use of scarce and non-renewable resources such as oil andgas and – hence – sustainability are rising societal and consumer concerns, not only in Europe butworldwide. Ethics and sustainability – the future of mother earth – go hand in hand. Ethical concernsalso apply to animal rights and to the consumption of animal products. The awareness about animalrights is growing, leading to consumer criticism about industrial farming and the use of growthhormones and antibiotics in mass animal production. Many consumers are choosing more “ethical”products like eggs and meat from free-range animals, “organic” and “fair-trade” products. A growingnumber of manufacturers are already advertising with labels that indicate the utilisation of renewable 22energy sources (e.g. wind, solar and biomass/food waste) being used for production , following thegeneral trend of displaying the manufacturer’s environmental and ethical considerations (e.g. in regardto animal keeping or fair trade) in form of labels..Sustainable food production looks like a large innovation area for the industry, which especiallyconcerns production methods and resource management (renewable energy, energy efficiency, foodwaste management, water management, etc.).3.2.4 Convenience food and take away food/home deliveryConvenience and health are probably the two biggest food and drinks trends; they are at the sametime seemingly contradictions. The choice for convenience food is rooted in changing life-styles, busylives and lack of time. The popularity of convenience food also relates to the diminishing size of theaverage household (two and one person household). The term convenience food applies to readymeals, conveniently packaged and processed foods, snacking and snatched meals, and eating out incanteens, catering establishments and restaurants. However, due to the financial crisis, eating out ison the decline because of the higher costs. ‘Grazing’, eating on the move and ease of container-opening for children and the elderly are all demands that, when being met increase the convenience offood consumption. Technologies for convenience foods focus on: easy to handle, time saving, ready-to-eat and heat-to-eat (ETP, 2005).Potential future demand may develop into the direction of high value-added convenience foods – inparticular functional foods that are designed to meet the nutritional and health needs of every22 E.g. Dagoba Chocolate http://www.dagobachocolate.com/Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 20
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010individual. Another future direction is convenience products made from fresh and healthy food.Sustainable and healthy fast food could become an innovation topic.3.2.5 Price consciousness, affordability and value for moneyA considerable share of consumers - and customers in general – acts price conscious in regard tofood and beverage products. The financial crisis has caused at least some customers to turn awayfrom more expensive “natural”, “organic”, “healthy” and “ethical” food as well as high quality foodtowards cheaper conventional products and fast food. The crisis does not only affect the foodconsumption patterns of the lower income strata of society. Even though the food industry is typicallymuch less affected by ups and downs than other sectors (European Commission, 2009), uncertaintyand falling consumer confidence increases the price sensitivity of consumers, with possible demandshifts towards hard discounters (e.g. Aldi, Lidl).Box 3.3 Consumer behaviourThrough the current financial crisis, however, some consumers are tending to cheaper products and thus turningaway from the more expensive ‘natural’, bio, eco, organic and wellness products. As a UK Research and Marketsstudy from 2009 suggests, consumers are already shifting away from some premium market products, whichinclude many ‘natural’ and wellness brands. “Innocent Drinks”, for example, a fast growing and successful Britishmanufacturer of smoothies, experienced 21% drops in sales and the first decline since 1999 in favour of cheaperchilled juices (Research and Markets, 2009). A winner of the financial crisis seems to be McDonalds, whichaccording to the Financial Times is planning to create 12000 new jobs and open 240 new restaurants throughoutEurope in 2009 after a 7.8 % European sales increase in November 2008. Source: Financial Times Online, 2009Discount retailers have already started to adapt towards the consumer wishes of inexpensive qualityand health and even discounters offer “organic” and natural foods, often presented as store brands.More generally, it remains questionable how much additional money consumers, especially those withlower income, would be willing to spend on functional foods and health innovations. Studies alsosuggest people from lower-income strata and less education are more prone to obesity, imbalancednutrition and resulting health problems. A major reason for this is that people with less income tend tobuy foods that are cheap and satiable, but contain more fats, sugars and salt and less valuablenutrients. If the expensive ‘high-tech’ food or ‘organic foods’ show significantly positive health effectsas compared to cheaper products, this could contribute to a divide-like situation between the wealthierand poorer strata of society that effects life expectancy, health and wellbeing.The profit margins of the food and drinks sector are generally low throughout the whole food chain andmarket power within the chain is a serious issue as the example of the recent milk-price drops andmilk-farmer’s protests show. Most food and beverage products are being sold through stores andsupermarkets that seek new ways to attract customers though appealing products, shop designs anda good shopping atmosphere as well as reducing costs. Cost reductions can be achieved throughmore efficient warehousing, supply chain management, automation or through the introduction ofprivate labels (i.e. retailers own store-brands). Retailers and large supermarket discounters haveintroduced private labels as an alternative to the more expensive and established, internationalrenowned brands. Many of these brands relate to quality and ecology-oriented or natural products.Automation, especially in warehousing, can lead to substantial cost savings. The 1 Euro-shops, forEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 21
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010example, can only sell for such cheap price because of large-scale rationalisation and automation inwarehousing and logistics (besides cheap product manufacturing in China and Eastern Europe).3.2.6 TasteTaste can be considered as one of the most relevant properties of food when it comes to consumerchoices. However, since taste sensitiveness and preferences are highly individual but also dependenton culture and habit, this dimension is difficult to objectively quantify. There may also be trade-offsbetween taste and other dimensions of foods and drinks like price and health. Researchers likeHarvard’s Daniel Lieberman are suggesting that people’s preferences for what is nowadaysconsidered unhealthy food like too much (saturated) fats, sugars and crispy foods (which can indicatefreshness as contrasting to less fresh items, e.g. in vegetables) is rooted in human evolution and pre-modern living conditions where a preference for energy rich foods, fat and sugar was an advantage for 23survival, conditions which however do not apply to the lifestyle in (post-)industrialised societies .Thus, from an evolutionary/anthropological perspective, taste preferences are related to assessing thenutritional value and safety of food items found in the wild. Humans prefer sweet food because it 24promises fast energy intake and tend to dislike bitter food because many toxic items are bitter .Looking at it from this perspective and also considering neuroscience, biological, cultural andneurological factors play an important role in regard to taste preference.In modern (post-)industrialised cultures, taste has mostly lost its function for distinguishing betweenedible and non-edible items and as already mentioned, some parts of the human evolutionary heritageare not suitable for modern living anymore. However, taste is still a very important criterion for foodchoices, whereas the cultural dimension of tradition - as well as experimenting with the tastes of othercultures – has become a major factor for gastronomy and the industry. This can be seen through theobservation that century old food traditions (e.g. in confectionary, beer, wine, meat specialities) are stillvalued and surviving with their traditional manufacturing methods and ingredients despite modernity.Also recipes from around the world are entering supermarket shelves dominated by industrialproducts. If taste and preferences are tied to specific production methods and ingredients that are notto be altered due to tradition or intellectual property right/trademarks, innovation is of course not reallypossible, except for indirect areas like preservation, packaging or marketing.However, taste preferences can conflict with health as well as innovation. The problematic relation tohealth does not only stem from the human evolutionary/anthropological heritage but can also lead todisputed (but within the EU well regulated) ingredient choices in the context of industrialised andbudgeted food production like certain artificial flavours and flavour enhancers. Some innovative futureideas like nanotechnology-based “programmable food” (cf. 3.1.9) also deal with experimentation of23 http://harvardmagazine.com/2009/05/dissing-evolution?page=0,1 andhttp://samuelsandassociates.com/samuels/upload/ourlatest/AdolescentObesityTowardsEvidenceBasedPolicy.pdf24http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80632e/80632E02.htm#Overview%20of%20factors%20in%20human%20food%20selectionEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 22
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010taste, whereas such ideas are currently also considered with scepticism and would face problems withapproval.Modern preservation methods, especially non-thermal ones (c.f. 3.1.11) are concerned with keepingthe taste of foods intact. Other preservation methods are exploring the utilisation of spices (e.g.Rosemary, Wasabi, parsley) that add good taste and at the same time serve as natural preservatives(cf. 3.1.8). This is in so far interesting as here innovation can be viewed from a different perspective,i.e. preserving and maintaining the taste of naturalness of food that is also related to the increasinghealth consciousness of some consumer groups.Molecular gastronomy, i.e. focussing on the scientific biochemical and physical dimension of cooking,a trend that has gained interest over the last years, has been inspired by methods of industrial food 25processing but is also being taken up by the industry . Other food “sub-cultures” like the “slow food”movement are intentionally opposing modern trends of fast, mass-produced and uniform food andemphasise taste, indulgence, health as well as traditional and regional specialities. If regarded as acounter trend to the mainstream and thus as something new, “slow food” could be seen as aninnovation, whereas not in a real technical sense but rather from the perspective of lifestyle, economicalternatives (strengthening regional and rural areas) and marketing.Taste, of course, remains central to food but the relation of taste to health and innovation can beambivalent. Humans tend to prefer tastes related to generally less healthy food in modern contexts(e.g. fat, sugar), but also associate taste with health and healthy eating (savouring the taste) as in theslow food movement. “Artificial tastes” in budget food production cause controversies and exotictastes can awake curiosity but also rejection. Innovations can contribute to better taste preservation(e.g. advanced preservation methods) and even create totally new taste experiences as in moleculargastronomy and some envisioned future nanotechnology possibilities.3.3 Intersection of S&T and demand-side drivers3.3.1 Knowledge-Bio-Based-Economy (KBBE)The food and drinks sector is a large and important part of the European bio-economy. Innovations inthis sector can be seen well within the goals and objectives on the European-Bio-Based-Economy(KBBE), which is defined as “transforming life sciences knowledge into new, sustainable, eco-efficientand competitive products” (“Cologne Paper”, 2007). The realisation of the goals requires a strongsupport for promoting science and research and attracting young people to work in these areas.Currently the situation still seems far from optimal and many industries are talking about a lack ofengineers and declining numbers of students in bioscience and engineering. A major necessity thathas been identified at the 2007 conference ‘En Route to the Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy’ hostedby the German Presidency of the Council of the European Union is the improvement of knowledge25 http://spectrum.ieee.org/geek-life/hands-on/molecular-gastronomy-goes-industrialEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 23
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010transfer. “Brain Drain”, i.e. the emigration of European scientist to non-European countries is also aproblem to be addressed (“Cologne Paper”, 2007).3.3.2 Consumer sensitivity as crucial factorThe food and drinks sector is rather unique. Some of the S&T possibilities that could provide solutionsfor demand-side wishes may just not be acceptable to the consumer. For instance, although manyconsumers want allergen-free foods, GMO may not be accepted as a solution. Nanotechnology couldprovide methods for better food safety, but is at the same time regarded as a food-risk itself.High consumer acceptance is however expected from personalised diets and methods for improvedfood testing and food-chain surveillance and management. Already today, one can find innumerablepersonalised-looking advises for healthy eating and nutrition, although many of them do not seem tobe evidence-based. The generally increasing knowledge about the workings of complex bio-systemsand the role of nutrition will very likely contribute positively towards the general goal of producingsafer, healthier and even tastier food based on scientific analysis.Social, cultural and religious aspects are also very important in the area of eating and drinking. Manyreligious or social rules have strict prescriptions about what (and even when) and what not to eat anddrink (e.g. vegan, kosher, halal, ban of alcohol and wine etc.) and how to prepare food and drinks (e.g.in regard to butchering). Eating and taste preferences are also related to culture, e.g. in regard tospices, sweetness and the consumption of certain foods like insects (entomophagy) or specific kindsof meat (e.g. snails, frogs, crocodiles, camels etc.).From past to present, consumer sensitivity and awareness has increased much, whereas the food anbeverage manufacturing industry is currently still defined as low-to-medium technology (Hirsch- 26Kreinsen, 2006, 2008). In regard to expected (future) scientific and technological possibilities, thefood and drinks industry could develop much further towards the characteristics of a high-techindustry, getting more similar to the biotech industry. If one categorises industrial sectors along thedimensions of technology (high technology vs. low technology) and “consumer sensitivity”, i.e. doethical and safety considerations play a great role in regard to products, one could derive the followingsimplified structure:26 http://www.jotmi.org/index.php/GT/article/view/art83/149Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 24
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Figure 3.1 Scientific and technological possibilities of the food and drink industryIn how far especially SMEs can perform this shift, remains very questionable, however. For firms thatproduce traditional foods and drinks which by definition cannot make major alterations in regard toingredients, sourcing and production methods, organisational innovations and networking are and 27remain of major importance (e.g. Kühne et al., 2007).The important question is in how far consumer sensitivity about the safety of food and beverageproducts and new knowledge about nutrition and their health effects can be brought into line with eachother. Is the industry able to take up the consumer interests and the inputs from scientific research todevelop successful new products?3.3.3 Innovation and technology as chanceAlthough some technological developments may not become popular with consumers, there seems tobe much room for innovativeness, although the trajectories may be different of what has been thoughtof in the past about the future, e.g. GMO and food pills. There seems to be much room forimprovement in efficiency and sustainability within food manufacturing, which applies to largeindustries as well as to smaller businesses and organic production. Energy efficiency, a betterunderstanding about how food works in the body, analysing the function of natural ingredients forpreservation, taste, texture and health benefits, improved labelling and packaging to indicate spoilagewhen it occurs (preventing good food from being thrown away and spoiled food from accidentally beconsumed) and ways to establish more trust between consumers and producers can be named assome major issues. There can also be innovation without GMO and adding synthetic nanoparticles,whereas modern biotechnology, genetic science and nano/molecular-sciences can nonetheless playan important role in agriculture, theoretical food science and food control.27 http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/6617/2/sp08ku01.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 25
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20104 Scenarios4.1 IntroductionThe following sections depict five different scenarios for the possible future development of the foodand drinks manufacturing industry in Europe, highlighting different directions in products andproduction processes manufacturing, societal development and consumer preferences and choice.Reality is likely to be a mix of all five scenarios, however with a greater leaning towards one of them.This makes the depiction of ideal typical worlds valuable, because through this one can get a clearerpicture of the single elements of the potential future reality.Basic framework assumptions:The world population is growing and expected to increase from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 7.6 billion by 282020 . This requires higher levels of agricultural production. Therefore the need for increases inproductivity and yields is one general driver for innovation. In most EU countries, the population isdeclining, however, and aging, nutrition-related health as well as environmental issues are generallyconsidered important and represent topics for innovation. Demographic developments represent arather stable framework condition since significant changes in population only occur slowly.If disregarding possible societal, political and legal interventions, the trajectories of technologicalpossibilities is also quite foreseeable with an increasing gain of knowledge, insight and engineeringcapacities in biotechnology, material science, medicine, computer science and related topics.However, societal, legal and economic aspects as well as public opinion play a significant role indetermining whether new technologies and methods may be applied or not. Thus technologicaldevelopment as such can be seen as a constant, whereas societal (political, legal, economic etc.)factors can vary.The scenarios will derive from the following assumptions considered as generally fixed within a short-to mid-term timeframe:  Increase in global population  Decline of population in many EU countries due to lower birth rates  Increasing life expectancy in EU countries (aging society)  Increases in scientific and technological knowledge and possibilitiesas well as the following parameters that vary between the different scenarios and make out the core oftheir differences:  Economic prosperity (on world, country and individual basis)  Ecological consciousness28 UN Population Statistics http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.aspEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 26
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010  Environmental problems (factual occurrences like draughts, floods, extreme weather that could negatively affect food production)  Food safety concerns (high concerns within society vs. lower concerns)  Importance of health (high interest in healthy living vs. rather low interest, leading to problems like obesity)  Innovation as a function of socio-economic factors that lead to the real application of knowledge and possibilities  Acceptance of new technologies (from a legal as well as individual consumer perspective)The first scenario, labelled ‘business as usual’ serves as a baseline and actually depicts the currentsituation of food and beverage production with the scores for the different dimensions (cf. graph-diagrams) set to an intermediate position. The diagrams of the other scenarios should be read relativeto the baseline (‘business as usual’). Also the developments of the different scenarios are based oncurrent trends in the sector, whereas in each scenario different dimensions are being highlighted.The scoring of the major dimensions: economic prosperity, ecological consciousness, environmentalproblems, food safety concerns, importance of health, technological progress and acceptance oftechnology have not been derived from an extended survey, but estimated by the researchersinvolved in this report and sector workshops during a workshop. They are not to be interpreted in aquantitative way but rather as an orientation to depict the differences of the scenarios.A list of references for the scenarios is provided in a special section in the reference list. This report 29itself has also served as a basis for the scenario-drafting .The first scenario “business as usual” reflects the status quo of the food and beverage production andmarket as a very heterogeneous construct. The other scenarios are measured relative to thisreference scenario depicting relative growth or declines in some of the dimensions.All scenarios can also be related to some of the emerging innovation themes that will be described inmore detail in chapter 5.29 The scenarios have been discussed with experts in the context of a workshop. The attendance rate of expertswas very low (3), however, that actually only in regard to the technological aspects and factual informationvalidation has been achieved, but in regard to implications or the assessment of more or less favourablescenarios the workshop only yielded very limited results from a methodological perspective.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 27
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20104.2 Scenarios4.2.1 Scenario 1: Business as usual (base-line scenario) Economic prosperity 4 3 Acceptance of new technology Ecological consciousness 2 1 0 Technological progress Environmental problems Importance of health Food safety concerns 0 = very low / 4 = very highDriving factors and framework conditions: In this scenario, different drivers are relevant andcompeting with each other, whereas none of them will be really dominant. New developments inscience and technology are bringing about new possibilities, whereas safety concerns, scepticism ofsome consumers about novelties in foods and drinks, legal and regulatory issues as well as high costsfor innovation and budgetary constraints of consumers are countering some forms of “radicalinnovation”. Food and beverage products thought to be healthy and sustainable are still moreexpensive than average products. Thus two directions are co-existing: cheap food produced en massewith the help of further efficiency strategies still represents a less healthy alternative, while on theopposite end of the market more expensive organic and functional foods and drinks are being offered,which are considered healthier but also more expensive. In general, this scenario is also rathercharacterised by control, i.e. good practices in food safety are mostly due to legal obligations andcontrols. Innovation strategies are varying where some are putting more emphasis on efficiency andcost reductions, others focus on health, ecological factors or producing novelties.In this scenario the gap between population groups with higher incomes and higher education vs.lower income and lower education will remain and will also be reflected in food choices, supportinghigh-end as well as budget products. The overall economic situation is characterised by moderategrowth thus leaving only limited resources for food and beverage innovations and only limited supportfor overall research, development and innovation thus leading to only moderately-paced technologicalprogress.Characteristics of the industry and products: In this scenario the food and beverage manufacturingindustry is characterised by a rather high degree of inertia and there will not be many significantEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 28
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010changes in the future. The industry will remain a mix of inexpensive conventional production(“industrial food”), more expensive organic products and a segment of more innovative functionalfoods and drinks, especially aimed at sports people, young adults (energy drinks) and elderly.Although healthy eating is promoted, the ideal and reality look quite different. Whereas some peopleare quite concerned over healthy nutrition, another large share of the population either can not affordhealthier choices or does not care enough due to various reasons (e.g. lacking knowledge, lack oftime). Even within the segment of people who care much about healthy eating, approaches differmuch and range from preferring organic and natural choices over vegetarian diets to opting forfunctional food or compensating unfavourable eating habits through supplements.Whereas the product palette and the production methods do not change much, food safety getsincreasingly important as many research and development efforts are put into this goal and legalrequirements are getting stricter. Modern technology and innovations in biotechnology (e.g. LOC-technology), nanotechnology (smart labels) and ICT (e.g. RFID-based food chain management) arevery important and are being constantly improved, but nonetheless mostly aim at the non-food parts ofthe food chain (e.g. packaging, testing and control). There will be a co-existence with more traditionalfood and drinks manufacturers alongside some functional food innovators. Consumers, the foodindustry and retailers are the drivers for the development of better and more reliable testing and firmsas well as retailers will experience high losses if food scandals occur.In general, many producers are striving to make currently unhealthy food (e.g. fast and ‘junk food’)healthier and fight obesity and other “civilisation illnesses”, partially driven by regulations. Majorscepticism about highly modified and “technologised” foods and drinks remain and there exists atendency towards thinking that organic and natural foods and drinks are a generally healthier choice.Also many traditional foods remain highly popular, unchanged products still generate high turnoversand many new introductions will not become popular. In general, the industry and products arecharacterised by a wide diversity of choices. Some products however remain quite short-lived whileothers become well established. This scenario opens the possibility for greater fragmentation of theindustry and the birth of new SMEs, while on the other hand, acquisitions by large multinationals canalso become more common.Possible innovations based on chapter 3.1:  New lifestyle products  Functional foods (mood, cosmetic, anti-aging)  New international and exotic products or “domesticated” foreign products  Growing share of organic foods  Growing share of “light” and calorie-conscious products  Food for the elderly  Food for allergic consumers  Healthier fast and “junk food”  New convenience food, snacks etc.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 29
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010  Opportunities for experimentsWinners: ICT and testing, innovative biotech and nanotech companies, regulators, no real winnersLosers : No real losersPotential risks, barriers and challenges of this scenarioThis scenario leaves us with a highly fragmented market where some innovation takes placealongside consumer choices for traditional and unchanged products. There is no clear directiontowards a specific tendency which makes planning and innovation strategies for the industries difficult.One major driver for innovation can be regulations that prohibit certain practices and ingredients or setlimitations and standards. Consumers will likely rather stick to their habits which also causes industriesto rather refrain from experiments. The food and drinks sector will only slowly change and significantimprovements can not be expected fast. On the positive side, the different interests cause some kindof balance between different forces where opposing practices like highly rationalised factory-style foodand beverage production co-exist alongside production methods that strongly focus on ecologicalsustainability and fair trade. The large diversity of products and approaches does not lead to“monocultures” and thus may contribute to a broad affordability of food products and high flexibilitytowards changes.4.2.2 Scenario 2: Going natural Economic prosperity 4 3Acceptance of new technology Ecological consciousness 2 1 0 Technological progress Environmental problems Importance of health Food safety concerns 0 = very low / 4 = very highDriving factors and framework conditions: This scenario is especially shaped by drivers related toconsumer interest which shape the trajectories of research and technology. Although technologicaland scientific knowledge about genetic technologies, nanotechnology-related possibilities, cheap foodEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 30
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010production etc. exists, consumers are very sceptical about their benefits and prefer not to choosethem. The current trend of increasing customer interest in organic and natural food is continuing andmore and more people prefer products that have been grown and processed with natural/organicingredients (as legally defined) or that have been only minimally processed. On the other hand,consumer trust in large industries and large-scale food processing and factory farming declines. Thereis a general belief that organic/natural products are also safer and healthier and a more ethical choicethat is shared by many consumers ranging from environmentally active persons to people very muchconcerned over a healthy extension of their life span. Organic and natural food has become the majorstandard in EU countries with comparatively low populations and even discounters have adapted tothis trend and offer more inexpensive products.The general economic situation is rather positive in this scenario and is also reflected at individualfinancial prosperity and a large number of people is able to afford more expensive foods and drinks. Ingeneral it is also more quality than quantity that counts in regard to consumption.There is a wide spectrum of technological innovations in food processing that is compatible with thisscenario like increasing efficiency in organic farming with the help of GPS and soil analysis-basedprecision farming and advanced indoor farming. Also natural and non-chemical (e.g. physical like highpressure) preservation methods are gaining interest and support.Characteristics of the industry and products: As smaller companies and local producers are beingfavoured by a considerable number of customers, large companies are also adapting to this situationand begin to advertise their efforts to substitute (what is considered) synthetic ingredients throughnatural ones. Such efforts are also getting much support from R&D projects (e.g. in regard to naturalpreservatives). Much knowledge from life-sciences and biotechnology is invested in analysis of betterutilizing the products of nature than modifying them. SMEs and small companies are profiting much,because many of them are able to gain the trust of customers and co-operate with local organicfarmers. Even large companies are co-operating with smaller ones in order to get more insight intonatural and traditional recipes and for product sourcing.Personalised diets and healthy eating are a very important aspect in this scenario, although therealisation is much more based on a trust in nature and the rediscovery of traditional solutions.Traditional Chinese and Indian diets and health recipes are being revitalised, scientifically assessedand even taken up by large manufacturers that are also beginning to sell traditional Chinese “Qi 30 31Food ” and Indian Aryurveda-products based on traditional knowledge. Functional food may bebased on the Indian concept of “sattvas” (harmony), “rajas” (energy) and “tamas” (negative elementsthat should be avoided). In Ayurvedic food theory, items such as fresh fruits, vegetables and milk areconsidered positive (sattva), rajvaic foods like coffee and “energy food” are considered somewhat 32risky and heavy foods like fat, meat, starches and alcohol are considered bad (tama) , which30 http://tcmonline.co.cc/qxjy/index.html31 http://ayurveda.iloveindia.com/ahar-vihar/index.html32 http://www.gunafood.com/Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 31
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010somewhat reflects contemporary “Western” guidelines for healthy eating. Natural/organic food andfast food also do not have to contradict each other as examples of raw foods suggest.GMO and food nanotechnology are nearly absent in Europe. Although some of it is principally allowedand has passed safety evaluation, the majority of customers neither wants nor needs it. On the otherside, insects may be accepted as new food source for ethical and ecological reasons. Majorinnovations will be in the area of improved and more efficient and sustainable processing and newforms of natural preservation and refinement methods.The problem of fraud and “greenwashing” remains a problem that puts a great challenge on trust.However customers are quite well informed to uncover frauds and false advertisement and suchrevealing can ruin a company. The general trust in food and drinks is rather high, making it lesspressing to develop high-tech testing methods.Technological progress is viewed from different perspectives than rationality, high-tech, speed,machines and competition and the goals for innovation have generally become more focused on theenvironment, humans, society and the improvement of living quality. Also the attitudes towardseconomic goals have changed towards some extent and earning even more money is not the majorgoal of large parts of the society.Possible innovations based on chapter 3.1:  Regional and small producers  Innovations in the utilisation of organic preservatives and ingredients  Natural functional food  Functional food based on Chinese, Indian or other (ancient) traditions  “Ethical” food  Fair trade  Food-mileage becomes important  More balanced vegetarian and vegan products  Labels depicting the ecological footprint of the product  Insect proteins  Many service and process innovations (e.g. food advise)  “Organic discounter”Winners: SMEs, small local industries, organic producers, traditional firms, eco, fair tradeLosers : Large firms, companies that want to use GMO, nanotechnology, synthetic ingredients, conventional/”industrial” agriculture and productionEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 32
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Potential risks, barriers and challenges of this scenarioA decline in income, diminishing trust in the “organic” industry (“green washing”) and declining interestin ecological and sustainability issues (e.g. because no real improvements are being perceived orpeople may not see enough evidence of environmental problems) may also negatively effect thecurrent popularity of eco-oriented lifestyle and consumption patterns.The scenario is only possible and sustainable for societies with comparatively small populations, awell organised agricultural infrastructure and sophisticated agricultural technologies. In many parts ofAsia, for example, where the populations are large and even growing, organic farming could not yieldenough output to ensure food security. If organic food production reaches a certain growth rate, thiscould also have adverse effects on land area, food prices, food security and obtaining a sufficientworkforce in agriculture and thus be unfavourable for sustainability.If Europe decides to opt for going further towards the direction of this scenario, importing foodproducts from abroad, especially from Asia and the US could become problematic and food exportsmay become too expensive to be really profitable. Agricultural and food trade will thus mostly remainwithin countries that opt for similar trajectories. Extreme cases of this scenario also create a veryfragile “monoculture” situation where disturbances and changes could even lead to challenges for foodsecurity and prices. Pressing problems, e.g. through climate change or other ecological occurrenceswhich can also occur due to practices on the global scale, could even make GMO and currentlydisputed preservation methods into an acceptable option given the lack of viable alternatives (cf.scenario 5).In general rather unlikely that thus scenario will be realised in it pure form, but a further shift towardsthis direction relative to the reference scenario could lead to improvements in health as well asecological sustainability.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 33
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20104.2.3 Scenario 3: Cheap & convenient Economic prosperity 4 3Acceptance of new technology Ecological consciousness 2 1 0 Technological progress Environmental problems Importance of health Food safety concerns 0 = very low / 4 = very highDriving factors and framework conditions: Within this scenario which is characterised by a ratherunfavourable financial situation for advanced research and development, many of the scientific andtechnological possibilities cannot be practically realised because industries and institutes cannot affordthem. Due to decreasing capabilities in controls, quality standards are less good than they could be.Cheap production, rationalisation and automation are main drivers for innovation that is mostlyfocussed on process innovations and smart methods to further decrease production costs. Thegeneral trust in science and research is rather low.The income situation of a substantial part of the consumers is not that good causing them to makeaffordable prices of products a major factor for their choice. Many people who were forced during thefinancial crisis to opt for cheaper products remain with this habit even after their financial situationimproves. Additionally to this, consumers are getting increasingly confused about contradicting healthadvises and have become increasingly sceptical about the stated benefits of more expensive foods,“organic” products and health benefits of functional foods. People generally have less time (e.g.needing to take more than one job) and money (low paying jobs) and hence choose products that arecheap and convenient or indulging (or both), e.g. to counter stress. The food and beveragemanufacturing industry as well as agricultural producers are also forced to lower prices, which leavesnot much room for higher quality or innovative products. In the first place food should be affordableand taste sufficiently well. Since low cost is the major competition factors for retailers, a downwardspiral towards low cost is being initiated that effects the whole food chain. For most consumers,inexpensiveness, convenience and to a certain degree fun are most important. This also goes inEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 34
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010parallel to a general social attitude of a present centred “living today”, which puts less emphasis onfuture developments, long-term considerations and future plans.Characteristics of the industry and products: Health foods and organic products are loosingground with mass consumers and are rather considered as high-end products for the economic elites.Also the interest in science-based nutritional recommendations is fading due to contradictions (like thecontradicting findings over Ginkgo, resveratrol, calorie restriction, vegan diets etc.) and lacking trust.The increase in labels on products had the opposite effect as intended: people lost interest in readingall the information and rather buy on basis of past experience, emotional reactions and especiallyprice.The general wealth of elderly people is also lower than expected, so that many cannot afford the muchmore expensive science-based health foods and drinks, thus leading to less interest in theirdevelopment and the issue of healthy aging in general.For large food and beverage companies and warehousing robotics gets increasingly important since itenables cheaper production. Also conventional and industrial farming will remain the norm and drivesfurther innovations, also in regard to “feeding a growing world population”. Food is being importedfrom where it can be grown and manufactured in cheaper ways, which also becomes easier since theprecaution-based concern over safety and ingredients is fading and controls can not be held upsufficiently.Possible innovations based on chapter 3.1:  Advances in food processing automation, logistics and warehousing  Variety of fast and convenience food (with some healthier and less healthier varieties)  “Fashionable” foods and drinks – goods, often associated with “youth culture” and franchise  Indulging foods where taste and experience and not necessarily health are in the main focus  Snacks, microwavable products etc.  Alcoholic drinks, energy drinks at reduced prices  Value chain integrationWinners : Large companies, cheap manufacturers and retailers, private labels, fast food, conveniencefood, “industrial” agriculture and processing, automationLosers : Expensive producers, organic foods, luxury foods, expensive health food, scientific approachesPotential risks, barriers and challenges of this scenarioHighly industrialised and rationalised farming and food (and beverage) production are especiallycriticised in regard to environmental and health problems (e.g. obesity related illnesses). Althoughhighly industrialised food production could enable better food safety controls, the objective of pricereduction could lead to declining quality and lacking resources for innovation, research andEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 35
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010development. This scenario also goes together with other factors like a rather bad economic situationand a general declining interest in the future, innovations and long-term considerations, which alsonegatively affects the concern over sustainability. Generally this scenario leads to a downward spiralin sustainability as well as quality and a further shift of this scenario relative to the status quo wouldquite likely lead no negative implications for health, wellbeing and the environment. This scenariocould become more likely if the driving forces behind the “Going Natural” scenario decline and if theeconomic situation and public attitude towards health, innovation and longer-term goals also fadeaway.4.2.4 Scenario 4: High tech nutrition Economic prosperity 4 3 Acceptance of new technology Ecological consciousness 2 1 0 Technological progress Environmental problems Importance of health Food safety concerns 0 = very low / 5 = very highDriving factors and framework conditions: The advances in bio(techno)logy, ICT, nanotechnologyand other related scientific areas as well as the interest of the public and policy makers is growing fastand there are many spill-over effects to the food and beverage industry. In this scenario, scientificresearch has shown that some forms of GMOs, certain types of nanotechnology-based ingredientsand medicinal functional food are sufficiently safe and show no adverse side effects. A substantial partof the population has high trust in science and research and therefore also trusts these findings andderived products. What has started within circles of technological experimenters (and prominentfigures, e.g. from sports and business) that have tried out food and beverage innovations in the areasof functional and medicinal foods to improve health, prevent diseases and improve fitness andwellbeing, is soon being followed by the masses. The general economic situation is rather good andpeople are willing to invest much into their health.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 36
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Customers are becoming increasingly interested in quick and technology-based solutions forimproving their health as well as physical and mental potentials. Governments as well as healthinsurers discover the cost-effective value of functional nutrition and even medicinal food for publichealth. These expectations have also been the driving force behind governmental support forfunctional food research and advertisement through medical professionals, nutritionists and healthinsurers. The market expands rapidly as scientific and technological insights grow. Although sometechnology applications are still rejected by some consumers, their perception gets moredifferentiated. Consumer decisions are generally very much based on what science and research aresaying, a fact that is also being capitalised by advertisement.Characteristics of the industry and products: New discoveries in genetics, epigenetics andnutrigenomics as well as medicine and other areas of life science are constantly leading to newinnovations in food and beverage products and improvements, whereas the dimension of science andtechnology plays the major role. Even products that may taste not that good are being bought if someresearch states that the benefits for health and fitness are high.Some examples are improved bioavailability of ingredients based on nutritional science analysing theinteraction of different nutrients as well as methods borrowed from medicine like drug targeting,personalised diets, smart labels, science-based functional foods and the development of so-called“mood food”, “brain food” and “fitness food” that positively influences wellbeing, physical propertiesand cognition.Computer technology is also of great help, e.g. in regard to food development, nutritional calculationand simulation and the development of personal diets (e.g. genetic analysis).Researchers and customers have also discovered the important role that food can play in theprevention of diseases. Therefore according developments are supported by governments and healthinsurers in the context of public health improvement.Although GMO and nanotechnology etc. is still rejected in some areas where the scientific concernsover profound health risks exist, it is supported in others, e.g. for the creation of allergen-free products,the creation of more nutrition-enriched crops and plants, for increasing (not decreasing) the number ofdifferent crop varieties or reconstructing older crop species, as a method for faster “cross breeding”and for designing animals with improved immunity thus necessitating less antibiotics. Also culturedmeat is gaining popularity and products are improving fast due to increasing demand and support,also from animal-rights groups and environmentalists.Especially large companies have an advantage in this scenario since they have the best financial andscientific means to achieve the goals. But also smaller companies play an important role because theyoften focus on specific issues and challenges and occupy profitable niches or are able to serve asspecialists within consortia and collaborations.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 37
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Although traditional food and recipes still exist, they are also being improved in regard to healthaspects and the traditional producers need to keep up with “upgrading” their products. Many SMEs getgovernmental funds to help them improve traditional foods while still preserving the cultural heritage.Traditional foods and drinks that are e.g. based on ancient Chinese traditions are also being assessedin regard to their scientific credibility. The products that are science-based are being acceptedwhereas others are soon disregarded as fraud and nonsense.In general this scenario is the most technologically sophisticated and most expensive one andrequires considerable investments in R&D and innovation activities as well as support from the publicand policy-making (e.g. in regard to laws and regulations). Since the general importance of the foodand beverage manufacturing sector has grown rapidly, more and more students are getting interestedin the subject and the industries are able to easily find appropriate personnel.Possible innovations based on chapter 3.1:  Science-based functional food (e.g. on basis of nutrigenomics)  Selected applications of GMO for innovative products like allergen-free nuts (“knock-out nuts”)  Non-prescription nutraceuticals and medicinal food  Cultured animal protein  Functional food (mood, cognition, beauty/cosmetic)  Healthy convenience food  Improved traditional foods  Service innovations like science-based recommendations for optimal food combinations  Combinations of traditional knowledge (e.g. Ayurveda) and high-tech (e.g. nano encapsulation of nutrients to improve bio-availability)  Adjustable food, e.g. the possibility to regulate spiciness or other taste characteristics according to microwave settingsWinners: Large companies, innovative start-ups (especially in close relation to biotech, nanotech,ICT), scientists, interdisciplinary R&D, functional food companiesLosers : Non-innovative SMEs, traditional firms, unhealthy fast food.Potential risks, barriers and challenges of this scenarioMany of the innovations being mentioned are costly in their development and need many human andfinancial resources. Some of them are also dependent on general scientific discoveries, e.g. in geneticand molecular research. So a lack of human resources or scientific means and backing could makethe realisation of this scenario difficult. Above this, some consumers may generally object to some ofthe mentioned methods and technologies. This scenario also rests very highly on technologicalsolutions and thus also represents a “monoculture” that bears dangers if either some assumptions(e.g. about safety) are wrong, the products do not yield the expected results as assumed (e.g. withfunctional and medicinal food) and food security could be endangered if financial and humanEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 38
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010resources may decline. Humans may also become alienated from real food and real agriculture. Thiscould make an overemphasis on technological solutions dangerous in times of crisis and decline.Especially small traditional manufacturers are threatened in this scenario and the dependency on R&Dand other sectors and developments is very high. Judging from current trends, a pure version of thisscenario is also quite unlikely, but a further shift towards this scenario could also improve the overallquality of food and beverage products and certainly stimulate innovation. If balanced by the “GoingNatural” scenario both could improve each other through complements if they do not remain tooopposing.4.2.5 Scenario 5: Emergency Economic prosperity 4 3 Acceptance of new technology Ecological consciousness 2 1 0 Technological progress Environmental problems Importance of health Food safety concerns 0 = very low / 4 = very highDriving factors and framework conditions: The “Emergency” scenario will depict a very gravesituation, where innovation is not merely a means for staying competitive, but for staying alive. Climatechange and environmental destruction will lead to drastic decreases in arable land while the globalpopulation is still rising with many environmental refugees coming to Europe. Many countries, even inEurope, will face systemic food shortages, e.g. due to lacking arable land and crop failures, e.g. due toextreme weather conditions and the results of overfishing and animal diseases. The only way out ofthe crisis lies in innovations that drastically increases yields and arable areas or create crops that cangrow under harsh conditions (extreme draught, extreme rainfalls), find new protein sources andimprove food preservation.The general economic situation is not good, but due to the importance of the issue, significantamounts are being invested into nutrition-related research and development. New technologies areaccepted quickly if they show promises to solve rather immediate problems.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 39
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010The situation in many non-European developing countries is even far worse, leading to socio-politicaltensions and environmental refugees to Europe. In this sense, Europe also assumes and obligation tofind quick solutions for de-escalating the problem.Characteristics of the industry and products: Under these conditions, a variety of alternatives arebeing tried out and all are welcome and get implemented quickly. Such innovations may includegenetically modified crops and fungi to resist harsh conditions, improve yields or diversity (i.e. to havesome ‘backup’ crops if external conditions change or some plague will hit), genetically modifiedanimals optimised for food consumption, indoor farming and lab-grown meat as well as the utilisationof (perhaps also genetically modified) insects as fast-reproducing food source. The roofs of buildingsare being transformed into agricultural spaces and gardens are mostly serving food production thanplanting flowers. New food preservation methods are being thought of to maximise the reserves.Research and technologies that have initially been developed within the context of the spaceprograms are now re-initiated and deployed on earth. Major examples include technologies for waterfiltering and recycling (e.g. rainwater and even urine), large scale algae production, farming in large‘terrariums’ like Biosphere 2 and greenhouses designed for the Mars mission as well as food pills and‘field rations’.Possible innovations based on chapter 3.1:  GMO food to be grown under extreme environmental conditions  GMO to enhance crop yields and the utilisation of animal proteins  Indoor farming, alternative farming methods  Alternative protein sources (e.g. insects)  Development of new food sources  Improving the efficiency of food usage, reducing food waste  Food pills  Optimised nutritional intake (e.g. nano-encapsulation)Winners : All those that come with working ideas to produce and preserve foodLosers : All those who do not come up with suitable ideasPotential risks, barriers and challenges of this scenarioBesides everybody hoping that this scenario will not become reality, it nonetheless shows that ageneral lack on innovative ideas (regardless of current acceptance) could pose grave problems undercertain conditions. This scenario also shows that some of today’s rejections about certain technologiesand ideas are embedded within current socio-economic conditions that do not require drasticmeasures. If external conditions change, GMO, disputed food preservation techniques (e.g.irradiation), entomophagy (insect eating) and food pills may become acceptable given the alternativeof insufficient food and water. However this scenario certainly leads to general declines in health andwellbeing and is, in contrast to the “High Tech Nutrition Scenario”, seen as a last resort rather than aEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 40
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010choice. The scenario also shows possible developments that can occur due to lacking concerns overthe environment and sustainability and could even represent and extreme result coming out of the“Affordable & Convenient” scenario. It depicts a situation where everything goes wrong and is gettingout of balance, but it also depicts the reality in some countries stricken by environmental catastrophes,draughts and poverty, which not even have the sufficient means to apply undesired technologies aslast resort.4.3 Concluding remarksIf deriving from the assumption that affordable improvements in health, safety and sustainability arethe main goals of innovation activities, then the scenarios “cheap and convenient” as well as“emergency” are definitely not favourable. Nonetheless “cheap and convenient” may become agrowing trend for low income groups and people who lack sufficient knowledge about nutrition or timefor adequate food preparation. Especially obesity is a major health concern that is also associated to“junk food” and unhealthy eating and lifestyle habits. Also many food safety and quality problems areattributed to the drive for more cost reductions and thus cost efficiency and quality are currently in away antagonistic. Therefore innovations should also keep the cost factor in mind and look for solutionsthat improve quality in an affordable way. If new technologies for healthier ingredients, improvedpreservation methods and faster and real-time safety assessments are getting cheaper, improvementscould also reach the lower budget sector.The “emergency” scenario is certainly a kind of worst case scenario where even food security (enoughfood) is in jeopardy, but if sustainability will be neglected, this could become a realistic outcome.Current trends in desertification and reliance on monocultures in large scale agriculture already seemto point towards this direction and in many countries around the world the situation for food securityand safe drinking water is already bad and still worsening.The “business as usual” scenario is not a very innovative one, but since it is very diverse and differentfactors like factory farming on the one side and ethical and sustainable food production on the otherkeep each other in balance in regard to cost reductions, sustainability and health. Nonetheless, thisscenario could lead to an even greater gap in regard to nutrition-related health in the future withexpensive health and natural food on the one side and cheap and unhealthy “junk food” on the other.Also innovativeness may become quite selective, dividing the industry into highly innovative sectionsand non-innovative less healthy low budget areas.On first glance the “going natural” and “high-tech nutrition” scenarios look like contradictions whichmay even be the case if taking their extreme forms. But both can also be combined by leaving outdevelopments that are considered risky or insufficiently assessed and focusing on the deployment ofnew technologies (as they are also being mentioned in the section about innovation themes) toimprove health, sustainability as well as affordability. Some of these cross-cutting innovation areasmay be:  Assessment of functional (natural) ingredients as replacements for less healthier onesEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 41
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010  Personalised diets  Evidence-based functional food  Reduction in fat, salt, sugar and other problematic ingredients  Alternative proteins  Improved preservation methods  Advanced and continuous food testing  Sustainable production (energy efficiency, waste and water reduction)  Automation in processing (could improve hygiene)Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 42
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105 Emerging innovation themes and theirrequirementsGenerally it could be stated that many innovations in the food and drinks sector depend on furtherdevelopments being achieved outside the sector like in biotechnology, ICT, automation,nanotechnology, neurosciences and material sciences. They are very likely to bring about new ideasand solutions for healthier foods, improved food safety, cost reductions, innovations in food chainmanagement and warehousing and a generally better understanding about nutrition and the relationbetween food and beverage consumption and human health.The research areas mentioned above are constantly progressing and will continue to do so in thefuture. It is even expected by some that the progress in these areas might become moreinterdisciplinary and through “intellectual cross fertilisation” even accelerate, which could generallylead to radical changes or disruptive effect in some areas. New scientific and technological potentialsare not only affecting products but also regulations, laws and societal issues. In this respect the mainissue to be taken into account in respect to food and drinks rather relate to societal, political, legal andeconomic factors that could hamper fast progress. It has to be said, however, that the technologicalprogress within the next 20 years could also easily get overestimated since many emerging scienceand technology fields are quite new and complex and their real impact – also in terms of consumertake-up and trustworthiness - is currently hard to assess. Whereas the previous section has describedmore general drivers, the following will provide an overview of some specific technologies and drivingfactors as well as barriers.5.1 New products, processes and technological trajectoriesThe spectrum of technological possibilities for innovations in food and beverage products andproduction is large, but not all suggestions are being perceived with the same acceptance byconsumers, interest groups and policy-makers. Some innovations like the production of healthier foodsand drinks, fat reduction, the usage of less conservatives and additives that are considered harmful aswell as environmental concerns are challenge and problem-driven. Other innovations, however, arerather driven by technological possibilities as it is for example the case with the application ofnanotechnology or genetically modified ingredients in food and beverage processing. Here demandsare assumed since the technologies are expected to solve certain problems or improve certainaspects of foods, drinks and their production (e.g. improve taste, consistency or shelf-life), but expertand consumer concerns over potential health risks make such innovation ideas uncertain in regard tosuccessful future market introduction. Another example is medicinal food that goes beyond functionalfood, which is likely to become technologically possible by under current conditions would lead to legalproblems. Additionally there are also innovation proposals that are suggested as solution to certainchallenges and problems like utilising abundant insect proteins or developing cultured meat thatcurrently do not seem to be too popular with European customers. Thus section 3.1 will focus onfuture innovation possibilities based on currently emerging developments, section 3.2 will focus onEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 43
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010market factors and 3.3 on organisational issues. Section 3.1 will also include challenges and barriersthat are based on current legal and societal situations and reactions as well as scientific andtechnological needs that still exist for their full realisation.Later, chapter 6 will connect the innovation themes from 3.1 to challenges, problems and socio-economic developments that have also served as building blocks for the scenarios described inchapter 5 as well as bringing them into connection to policy issues.5.1.1 Inputs from biotechnology and life sciencesBio- and life-sciences will substantially shape the future food and beverage industry and theirproducts. One currently still emerging area of science which could profoundly influence food andbeverage products is epigenomics (sometimes also called epigenetics). In contrast – or as addition –to “classical” genetics, epigenomics is concerned with the changes of gene expression and theregulation of gene activity that are influenced by external factors like food intake or exposure tosubstances found in the environment. In short, these new scientific findings strongly suggest thatthere exist a so-called epigenome that controls in how far specific genes are “switched on or off”, i.e.being active or inactive (through influencing DNA or protein methylation). Influences affecting theepigenome may even be inherited to offspring. Since the intake of food and drinks is regarded as animportant influencing factor for the epigenome and thus affecting genetic expression and determiningcertain characteristics in the organism, e.g. their health state, it is very likely that the food and drinks ofthe future will take these findings into account. These findings may also put new responsibilities ontothe food and beverage industry and agriculture.There already exists a specialised research field based on epigenomic theory, called nutrigenomics. 33The European Nutrigenomics Organisation (NuGo) , for example is a Network of Excellence in theEU Sixth Framework Programme for Research and Technology. The main goal of this organisationwhich has 23 partner organisations within 10 European countries is the improvement of the Europeannutrigenomics research. (NuGo, 2009). It studies the relationship between nutrition and the genome,epigenome, metabolome (molecules involved in metabolism) and proteomics (expressed proteins).Related research has also shown that individual persons can possess a different enzymatic makeup(polymorphism) that makes their metabolism work differently, leading to differences in the utilisation ofnutrients (and medication). This could lead to new services offering personalised recommendations forfood and beverage intake and combinations.Already today, some biotech firms are offering personalised nutritional consultation on the basis ofgenetic analysis, but science is currently still not able to understand all the complex underlyingmechanisms to provide meaningful and evidence-based advice. However, scientists around the worldare researching in this area, trying to uncover the complex interlinkages. Progress in computer33 NuGO is a Network of Excellence in the EU Sixth Framework Programme for Research and Technology.Funded for six years, the primary aim of NuGO is integration, making European nutrigenomics research easier.See http://www.nugo.org/everyoneEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 44
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010technology is of great assistance for enabling the necessary complex calculations. Also the enormousprogress that has been made in DNA analysis – in regard to speed and cost reduction - is also acontributing factor that genetic and epigenetic findings might be integrated into tomorrow’s food anddrinks.Out of these developments, the following trajectories are likely to evolve within the next 15 to 20 years:  New and improved functional foods and drinks, in combination with possibilities of personalised diets (at least to a certain degree) will be a likely development within the next 15- 20 years. Especially natural functional ingredients will get increasing positive attention through consumers, the industry and research. New categories like foods and drinks with mood and memory-enhancing effects could also be developed and may attract a large share of customers. The regulatory framework in this regard is uncertain at present. If there will be drafted a regulatory framework on so-called “Human Enhancement Technologies” as it is 34 currently being discussed at STOA (FIH, 2009) , foods and drinks on the blurry line between foods, medicine and “drugs” will certainly become an issue.  Medicinal food and GMOs for pharmaceutical purposes (although it might become technically feasible within this time frame, it will encounter much more regulatory hurdles and costs.)  Cultured meat, i.e. meat produced from cell cultivation in the laboratory without the need of growing and slaughtering a whole animal, could also become feasible for industrial-scale use to a certain degree within the next 20 years. The progress is likely to be faster if sufficient financial support and research-co-operation are being provided.  Food testing methods and food chain management will certainly improve very much due to new technological possibilities like instant testing, improved lab-on-a-chip systems, smart sensors and smart labelling, improved preservation methods and a better scientific understanding about the reasons for food contamination, spoilage and the behaviour of harmful micro-organisms. Molecular biotechnology and nanotechnology are also likely to be welcome in the area of food testing and surveillance, perhaps in contrast to their usage in the food and drinks themselves.  The principal possibilities for food nanotechnology are likely to grow within the next 20 years; the trajectories will depend much on further safety evaluations and consumer acceptance.Challenges and barriersMore research needed: Especially in the areas of functional foods and drinks, nutraceuticals, healthfoods and personalized diets, more scientific research is needed to develop advanced and reliableproducts. Although much progress is being made in modern bio(techno)logy, health sciences andmedicine as well as in related areas like ICT and computer-based analysis (e.g. in-silico analysis),innovation is likely to process rather gradually and necessitates profound testing and safety analysis.With a growing number of dedicated research institutes and medical centres like the Institute of FoodResearch, Norwich Research Park, the School of Food Biosciences at the University of Reading, the34 http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/archive/2009/human_enhancement_workshop_in_brussels.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 45
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Nutrition and Toxicology Research Institute Maastricht (NUTRIM), the newly founded Top InstituteFood & Nutrition Wageningen, VTT Biotechnology, the Unilever Health Institute in Vlaardingen and 35many others, the scientific foundation is getting stronger (e.g. IPTS, 2008).The High Level Group on Competitiveness of the Agro-Food Industry put forward a number ofrecommendations on more research, including very specifically 1) to support the development of newfood technologies, but also to 2) simplify access to funding research programmes, 3) enhance theresearch and innovation efforts; and 4) make better use of the instruments available in the context ofthe European research and innovation policy (HLG, 2009).The substitution of unhealthy ingredients: Nearly every ingredient in foods and drinks serves a specificpurpose necessary for providing the desired taste, texture, smell or shelf-life. Because of this, eventhe reduction of “unhealthy” ingredients like fat, sugar or salt and the substitution of synthetic throughnatural ones in foods and drinks can be very challenging and necessitate much scientific research,experimentation, know-how and high-level skills in areas like physics, chemistry and biology. In somecases a substitution of ingredients could even be comparable to re-inventing a whole product. Onlylarge companies currently have the financial means and human resources to tackle such issues, andeven they complain about a lack of sufficiently skilled personnel.Lacking skills and human resources: The food and beverage manufacturing of the future is likely tobecome increasingly multi-disciplinary, where insights from many different areas, e.g. bio-sciencesand bio technology, physics, chemistry, nano sciences, ICT, health sciences, neuro sciences andpsychology, ICT, marketing, ecology and others could contribute to improved foods and drinks. 36Currently, however, many European food and beverage manufacturing industries , perhaps as manyas half of them (IFST, 2006), are experiencing a shortage in scientific and high skilled personnel 37(CIAA, 2008) .This problem is even observed globally. Therefore innovativeness could become a realproblem for the sector and many potential improvements might just not be possible due to lackinghuman resources.Regulation: Regulation as such is not to be viewed as negative by definition. Regulation can be adriver for innovation. Ex ante impact assessments of regulatory (and other) policy initiatives could helpensure innovation. This is in line with one of the recommendations of the High Level Group onCompetitiveness of the Agro-Food Industry which is to “promote high quality and comprehensiveimpact assessments for the European policy and legislative measures.”Need for efficient authorisation procedures for novel and functional foods: firms have frequentlyaddressed the need for more efficient and rapid authorisation procedures. Currently such procedurescan be very lengthy; Europe’s competitors, such as the US but also various other countries currently35 ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC43851.pdf36 http://www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/medicine_health/report-55872.html37 http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/food/high_level_group_2008/contributions/cia_human_capital.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 46
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010outcompete Europe on this aspect. This efficient authorisation point has also been advanced at therecent HLG (HLG, 2009).5.1.2 Improved functional foodsWhereas today’s functional food relies on (assumed) knowledge about specific ingredients that couldyield specific effects in humans (e.g. better digestion, lowering cholesterol, binding of free radicals,improve wakefulness), future functional foods could be designed on the basis on findings fromepigenetics and epigenomics as well as medical research, i.e. being evidence-based. If it will beknown how specific ingredients in foods and drinks influence DNA methylation (determining whichgenes become active and inactive), leading to certain positive or negative effects (e.g. affecting theprobability of cancer, overweight, life expectancy), future food might be engineered in a way topurposefully remove or insert certain substances. Also the bioavailability of nutrients could beimproved if our understanding about metabolic and proteomic mechanisms will grow. The design offuture functional food may go beyond the supply of nutrients as such and will be based on a holisticmolecular approach to nutrition.Functional food for the brain and nervous system. Research suggests that there is a connectionbetween specific nutrients and mood, memory, cognition and the nervous system. Neuroscientists andneurobiologists are currently analysing these complex mechanisms between brain chemistry andnutrition. The findings may lead to science/evidence-based nutrition that specifically affects mood,cognition or other neural functions, e.g. by adjusting the serotonin-level in the brain as well as that ofother neurotransmitters. (Serotonin is a neurotransmitter responsible for regulating mood, aggressionand appetite and can be responsible for depressions. The production level of serotonin can beinfluenced by foods, e.g. raised by carbon hydrates).“Anti-ageing” food/drinks and products for the elderly. Customised diets for the elderly are gettingincreased interest in the context of rising life-expectancy. Weight loss and malnutrition are quitecommon in elderly and can also be attributed to changes in biological and biochemical bodilyprocesses due to ageing. Nutrition for the elderly also stands in the intersection of geriatrics (study ofthe diseases commonly found in elderly), gerontology (the interdisciplinary study of aging) and theemerging field of bio(medical) gerontology (investigating the biological process and causes of aging)together with scientific disciplines dedicated to genetics and nutrition. But nutrition for the elderly is notonly a medical problem. Elderly people are often less sensitive to taste and smell and might haveproblems with moving or chewing, thus negatively influencing their eating habits, perhapsnecessitating other forms of innovations that can compensate for these circumstances (cf.Fillion/Kilcast, 2001).Future food and drinks could be engineered to counter certain negative age-related effects and thushaving preventative function and supporting quality of life and healthy aging. Ways to counter andprevent age-related diseases are currently very high on the research agenda in food research,biotechnology and medicine.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 47
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105.1.3 Personalised dietsAs mentioned above, humans have different metabolisms; hence a certain nutrient can have differenteffects in different persons. With science progressing, it will be possible to compose individualised dietplans based on genetic information and epigenetic findings, optimised for the individual person’sbiological makeup. This could be performed in form of composing personalised functional foods or injust making recommendations in regard food choices (e.g. for some individuals it may be better to eatmore meat, whereas for others a vegetarian diet might be preferable). The tendency towards cheaperand faster genome analysis are also an important factor for the realisation of personalised genetically-based nutrition(al advises).The customer interest in the concept of personalised nutrition is already quite high, although the topicis still a scientifically emerging issue, and far from usable industrial results yet. The customer interestmay also be the result from the general current trend towards customisation and individuality,independent from the issue of nutrition. Researchers and public health specialists are also veryinterested in these new areas of research, because of the prospective of providing new and rathereasy ways for disease prevention (especially in regard to so-called life-style diseases, but alsoconcerning cancer or dementia). Currently, research in the fields of epigenetics, nutrigenomics,proteomics, metabolomics and related areas is well supported and advances in analysis methods andcomputer technology provide positive contributions. A general trend towards a nutrition approachbased on these new research areas is very likely to be realised.Challenges and barriers:Complex research: Since the analysis of biological systems and the interaction of different proteinsand other substances is a very complex field, it may take some time to yield usable results.Innovations and the integration of according knowledge are likely to occur step-by-step as newinsights and discoveries are being made and can be transformed into workable products. Currentlythere already exist many claims, offers and advises for personalised diets, which however still lack asolid scientific basis. Epigenetics is still an emerging research field and normal genetics is sill far fromfull understanding. However the interest of customers, researchers, food producers and policy makersis currently high so that such research areas are getting quite good support.Regulation: Regulation as such is not viewed as negative by definition by the food and drinks industry.Regulation can also be a driver for innovation. E.g. if specific substances are not allowed in foodproduction, companies have to think of methods to substitute for these ingredients and thus innovate.In regard to novel foods (foods and drinks generally new to the European market), the regulatoryprocess currently takes a lot of time compared to other countries (e.g. the US) and hence can causeturnover and profit losses. Also the new strict calls for science-based evidence in relation to health-claims necessitates much research and testing, which is likely to be too expensive for mostcompanies, especially SMEs.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 48
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Box 5.1 Novel foodsAccording to EU legislation novel foods are defined as foods and food ingredients that have not been used forhuman consumption to a significant degree within the Community before 15 May 1997. They have to undergo toundergo rigorous safety assessment before being brought to market.In December 2006, a new Regulation on the use of nutrition and health claims for foods was adoptedby the Council and Parliament; the Regulation went into force by 1 January 2008. This new obligatoryEU-regulation includes a EU-wide harmonisation of standards and makes the assessment of everyhealth claim by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and there are transition regulations foralready existing products and health claims. Health claims as well as products are being assessedand when the transition period is over, only approved health claims will be allowed to be used. If theproducts will not meet the (scientific) standards of the health claim, it will not be allowed on the marketbearing this claim after the respective transition period is over (e.g. Van Zoest, 2009). Only if theproduct complies with certain guidelines and limits (e.g. percentage of fats and vitamins), it is allowedto be (explicitly) advertised as healthy. Statements like “calcium is good for your bones” are onlyallowed if approved on a so-called “positive list”. Claims about the prevention of illnesses, i.e. “thisproduct prevents the risk for heart disease” or “this product improves your memory” are not allowed,except if scientifically proven, which necessitates medical testing procedures.Although health claim regulation has been criticised for setting restrictions to advertisement, theintention behind it can be regarded as positive since it encourages producers to compete inestablishing real improvements and innovations and prevent fraud. The health claim regulation is alsoseen as a reaction to customers’ wishes to get a clearer differentiation between objective informationand advertising claims, and hence improve the consumer choice process.Costs: The development of new functional foods and drinks will be very costly, especially in face of thecurrent regulatory frameworks. It is unclear in how far consumers will be willing to pay more for suchinnovative but unknown products lacking long-term experience.5.1.4 Medicinal foodIn ancient traditional China and India, as well as in other cultures, food and medicine have beenclosely related, with specific foods used in therapeutic applications and functions. This ancient ideahas been taken up by modern biotechnology and medicine. One direction in which this research hasdeveloped is the creation of foods that can have the same effect as vaccinations, e.g. against polio,measles or diphtheria. The positive side of it would be that one could actually use nature’s ownmethods to produce specific medicinal substances and that the “vaccination” could occur just througheating. In principal – although not yet in (approved) practice -, genetic engineering technology can beused to create plants (e.g. banana) that contain the specific vaccines. However, these suggestionshave come under some criticism concerning their effect and safety (and the safety of geneticallymodified organisms (GMOs) in general) as well as legal problems (different regulations apply for foodand medicine) and the scientific and technological progress has been limited so far. For this reason,related research is slowing down. A similar method, called (molecular or gene) pharming, however isEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 49
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010experiencing growing applications. In pharming, genetically modified plants and animals are used toproduce specific medicinal active components for applications in the pharmaceutical industry or otherbiological components that are utilised for industrial purposes, including food ingredients.Future GMOs for pharmaceutical use. Although it would be technically possible to create geneticallyengineered plants that produce pharmaceutically usable components, current political, legal andethical problems as well as unclear safety issues can be named as hindering factors. Principally thiscurrently still applies to all GMOs in food and agriculture.Challenges and barriersScepticism about GMO: However, the criticism and scepticism is especially a European problem,although not uniquely so; even in generally technology-friendly Japan. The Japanese “NO! GMO”activist group has joined forces with international like-minded organisations and the Japaneseopposition to GMOs is very strong for an Asian country. At the same time, the popularity of organicfood is steadily increasing in Japan. However, Japan is currently developing an anti-hay-fever rice,which could build up the acceptance of GMOs in this country where large portions of the populationsuffer from pollen allergies. Also the development of genetically modified non-allergenic foods –“knock-out nuts” – is a possibility. Although it is assumed that GMOs might get more acceptanceglobally in the long run, it is currently unclear how long this may be.Even the so-called “golden rice”, a genetically modified rice species developed by scientists from ETHZurich and University Freiburg/Germany that produces and contains Beta-Carotene (pro-vitamin A)has led to heavy controversies, especially in Europe (Mayer, 2005). However, GMO research iscontinuing with the goals of producing plants that contain (more of) specific ingredients attributed to 38positive health effects (e.g. vitamins, calcium etc.) , or as already mentioned, even inhibiting orreducing the production of proteins that cause allergies. The prospects of future GMOs in agro-foodproducts will mainly be dependent on consumer perception and regulatory issues.Since different countries have different attitudes towards GMO, global sourcing may pose a challenge.The GMO issue also provides a good example for the interlinkages and dependencies throughout thefood chain and the importance of choosing suppliers and trusting them.Regulatory distinction between medicine and food: In policy and legislation as well as in the minds ofpeople there is still a demarcation line between food and medicine. “Nutraceuticals”, i.e. food andbeverage products that ought to have a (proven) therapeutically effect fall into a kind of “legal hole”,since they either have to be defined as medicine and have to undergo pharmaceutical testing or asfood or beverage, which are not allowed to be marketed as medicine (OJEU, 2006). and/or underlie 39the novel food regulation. The new health claims regulation will make it very difficult for smallcompanies to produce and sell functional foods or products with a health claim, because of the38 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7188969.stm39 http://ec.europa.eu/food/food/labellingnutrition/claims/index_en.htmEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 50
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010necessary amounts of scientific research and evaluation that have to be conducted. On the otherhand, the new regulation will make sure that products bearing health claims are really effective andcould contribute to the further development of scientifically proven functional foods. This is to thebenefit of consumers, both in choosing and in consuming functional foods.Box .5.2 Food definitionFor the purposes of this Regulation, ‘food’ (or ‘foodstuff’) means any substance or product, whether processed,partially processed or unprocessed, intended to be, or reasonably expected to be ingested by humans. […].‘Food’ shall not include:[…] medicinal products within the meaning of Council Directives 65/65/EEC and 92/73/EEC […]Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002Functional foods and drinks which rather provide a preventative than medicinal function get muchgreater acceptance with consumers and regulations if the effect can be scientifically substantiated 40(IPTS, 2008).5.1.5 Cultured meat”Fifty years hence we shall escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breastor wing by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium.” [Winston Churchill, 1932]As scientific and advances are being made in stem-cell technology, cloning and tissue engineering,researchers have asked the question why not growing meat in the laboratory using the sametechniques. Instead of breeding and raising chicken, for example, in order to slaughter them to gettheir meat for food, not the whole chicken, but only the meat (the meat cells) might be grown in thelaboratory. The requirements for cultured meat are even below those of medical tissue engineeringwhich has to be functional for therapeutic purposes.The environmental group PETA has offered a 1 million USD prize to the contestant who successfullyproduces and sells the first cultured (in-vitro or lab-grown) chicken meat until 2012 (mongabay, 412008) . The Dutch researcher Henk Haagsman from University Utrecht is leading a research projectabout cultured meat in co-operation with scientists from University Amsterdam, Utrecht University andEindhoven University of Technology, partially funded by the Dutch government. Also the non-profitresearch organisation “New Harvest” is working on the development of meat substitutes.In general, it can be assumed that scientific and technological advances in tissue engineering willmake the development of cultured meat easier in the coming time, especially since it is much easier tocreate tissue for food than for medical purposes (e.g. organ transplants in humans). Here biomedicalscience and food science can profit from each other in a rather unconventional way. However, thefactors of quantity and time (to produce large amounts of sufficiently textured cultured meat in a shorttime) as well as the provision of nutrients to the tissue still remain a challenge.40 ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC43851.pdf41 http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0423-peta.htmlEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 51
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Challenges and barriersCosts and consumer perception: In technological terms, currently known methods for cultured meatare still too inefficient for industrial usage. But this may change as the technology will be conductedmore routinely and in larger scales and when tissue and stem cell technologies will mature in general.However, even if the technology matures, it is very likely to be far more expensive than conventionalproduction at least in the beginning.Although cultured meat comes with many advantages that include the cultivation in controlled andclean laboratory conditions which eliminates the risk of disease and use of antibiotics and growthhormones, the possibility of engineering the fat amount, no need to kill animals for food and areduction of environmental pollution caused by animal farming (which according to the UN FAO is 42higher than that produced by the transport sector (FAO, 2006 ), many current customers howevershow negative (emotional) reactions towards the idea. Even the moderator of a German ZDF sciencedocumentary (“Abenteuer Wissen” from July 8, 2009) has voiced his scepticism about artificial(cultured) meat and his preference for the natural product. But it is likely that the reaction of customerschanges when they are really beginning to rationally compare current meat production with theenvisioned future method. Therefore the question remains how to convince consumers about theadvantages of cultured meat and to pay higher prices for potential products.5.1.6 Insect innovationInsects (and a variety of worms) are actually a very efficient food source and display a betternutritional and ecological efficiency than other animals that are commonly consumed in Europeancountries (especially pork and beef). The issue of making more use of insect sources for nutrition hasalso been evaluated at a FAO conference in Chiang Mai, Thailand in 2008. Around 1400 insectspecies are already being consumed, especially in countries on the Southern hemisphere and newprocessing methods could actually make their use more attractive, even to Westerners. Also newstandards and testing have to be established if broader insect consumption would be established to 43avoid harms from insecticide residues (FAO, 2008) . Since insects are nutritious, available in largeamounts, reproduce fast, necessitate little space for keeping and can be produced cheaply, they couldbecome economically and ecologically relevant. Entomophagy (insect eating) is already quite 44widespread in South Asia, Africa, Latin America and Japan , but not in Europe and North America.Challenges and barriersConsumer perception: Eating algae, worms and insects represents a very uncommon situation formost Westerners and the highest barriers may be psychological in nature. However, algae is alreadybeing eaten as Japanese culinary in sushi and processed worms and insects that do not look like42 http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000448/index.html43 http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000791/index.html44 http://www.ca.uky.edu/entomology/dept/bugfood2.aspEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 52
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010insects and worms anymore may even get accepted if one considers that most people also do notthink about the chicken, cow or pig when eating ham and sausages.5.1.7 Innovations for fast- and convenience foodAs is seems that some people are having less and less time for cooking and lengthy food preparation,innovations in fast and convenience foods are also being thought of. One major issue is the productionof healthier fast food, e.g. by reducing trans-fats, sugar, salt and preservatives that are consideredunhealthy. The other issue is increasing convenience, e.g. making preparation even faster or evenmobile, e.g. by using self-heating or self-chilling (e.g. for drinks) packaging. However, concepts forself-heating and cooling have already existed for quite a while, but never became really popular so far.However, fast food is currently often also associated with low budget and unhealthy choices, but bothaspects could be changed. Healthy and higher quality (and higher priced) fast and convenience foodare well conceivable and could especially address working professionals. Fast food producers canalso serve as trendsetters to respond quickly to legal requirements (e.g. in regard to ingredients and 45trans- fats) or customer wishes (e.g. ecological sustainability or fair trade) , whereas it can not alwaysassessed if some measures are only superficial or real innovations. Fast food producers may alsoneed to adapt to customer’s wishes and changes in trends in an early manner and thus could alsoserve as early indicator for other branches in food and beverage production.Challenges and barriersCost pressure may be named as one of the major barriers for quality-related innovations in fast andconvenience food, but as mentioned above, fast food and low budget do not necessarily have to berelated. As customer concerns over healthy nutrition, environmental considerations as well as fairtrade and animal rights rise, fast and convenience food producers may get increasingly criticised oversome of their practices and some measures like their advertisement with healthy choices orenvironmental consciousness may not be really believed by the customer. However as also mentionedabove, regulations and legal pressure could especially lead to innovations and changes in the fast andconvenience food industry due their already fragile image.5.1.8 Functional natural ingredientsResearch advances in biosciences not only lead to trajectories of greater modification but also providebetter insights into the mechanisms of natural ingredients that can possess valuable properties forpreservation (e.g. wasabi, rosemary) or other beneficial functional properties (e.g. for health but alsofor enhancing properties during processing). Although natural ingredients have already been utilisedfor quite a while in Western as well as Eastern diets, scientific analysis can help to assess theirworkings in an evidence-based way and enable more specific utilisation. Also advancedmicroencapsulation techniques that represent an emerging method for improving food processing andnutritional value of food can be based on natural materials such as starch, proteins or lipids.45 http://www.foodproductdesign.com/articles/2007/08/fast-food-innovation.aspxEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 53
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105.1.9 Nano-based food and beverage ingredients46Nanotechnology (in combination with methods from biotechnology) is not only considered forpackaging, but also as food ingredient. Despite consumer concerns, nanotechnology has alreadyreached the supermarket shelves, e.g. for improving the texture and viscosity of products like tomatoketchup and chocolate. Nanotechnology (i.e. nanoparticles and nano-capsules) are currently beingevaluated for use in targeted drug delivery, e.g. for methods to enable the release of medication onlyin the area where it is needed. Similar techniques could also be applied in the food and beverageindustry for improving the release of nutrients, vitamins or flavour and for enhancing their bioavailability. In general, nano-encapsulation, nano-emulsions and similar nano-based techniques seemto show advantages over “classical” non-nano methods in regard to controlled delivery, better food-matrix integration and avoiding undesired tastes.Another thinkable, but more far away innovation could be the creation of “customer taste adjustablefoods” or “programmable foods”. Flavours or colours could be contained in nano-capsules that releasetheir content only upon a certain temperature, microwave setting or other triggering effects. Thecustomer could therefore choose the flavour or colour through different heating times or microwave-oven settings. Although such innovations are within technological possibilities, it is currently quitequestionable if they will be accepted by the customer. (cf. EC, 2006; WDR, 2008; Nanowerk, 2009).Table 5.1 Examples of food/beverage nanotechnology: 47Source: nanowerk.com, 20095.1.10 Smart food packaging with nanotechnologyThe combination of nano- and biotechnology may also open up new ways for improved food safetycontrol and surveillance. Nanotechnology enables the creation of ultra-small thermo-sensors that can46 http://www.swr.de/swr1/rp/tipps/essen/-/id=446830/nid=446830/did=3268588/axyyx4/index.html47 http://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=8960.phpEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 54
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010cause colour changes depending on temperature. This allows for visual indications of broken cooling-chains, for example. Such labels are already being marketed but still rather expensive. In the future itis expected that the technology will get cheaper and with this more wide-spread. Future sensortechnology will be able to react towards a broader variety of substances and smaller amount in real-time with improved accuracy.Nanotechnology in packaging is also used for the development of packaging films that absorb UVradiation for better protection of light sensitive food ingredients. Other research areas are protectivefilms that have anti-bacterial/anti-microbial properties (“active packaging”) or block moisture, oxygenand other gases and substances from reaching the food and beverage, or to create packaging that ismore heat or cold resistant.But also inspirations from medicine might someday enter food packaging. Targeted drug releasetechnology, which makes use of specifically engineered polymers that release medication over time at 48a controlled rate, are under development . Applied to food or food packaging, a similar technologycould be used to release preservatives, flavours or other substance on an interval level (cf. AZoNanotechnology, 2009).Challenges and barriersConsumer perception and risks: Consumer protection and advocacy groups are already raisingconcerns over possible negative side effects of nano-particles in food. Since the technology is novel,there exist insufficient long-term data about potential problems. Food regulations also have notintegrated the importance of size (e.g. nano-scale vs. non nano-scale) into their assessment ofsubstances, although the major aspect of nanotechnology is that substances of a specific kind showdifferent properties and reaction capabilities in form of nano-particles than they show if occurring in“large scale”. Another important issue that is seen as an advantage in medicine for treating braindiseases is that nano-particles can cross the blood-brain-barrier. In other situations, i.e. food anddrinks, this property could increase the occurrence of dangerous and unintended effects. On the oneside the food and beverage industry is quite interested in the new possibilities of nanotechnology, buton the other hand it acts quite cautions on this, because of uncertainties about perceptions and(future) regulations.5.1.11 New food preservation methods49New preservation methods for foods and drinks are not only about preventing spoilage, but aim atmaintaining as many vitamins and nutrients intact as well as achieving better results at keeping tasteand texture. Since heating (and freezing) tends to destroy vitamins and nutrients or has negativeeffects on taste and texture, non-thermal preservation methods are getting increasingly attractive.Many new methods are currently being tried out or under development, and some of them are likely to48 http://www.azonano.com/Details.asp?ArticleID=170249 http://www.atp.or.at/Docs/agro1.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 55
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010be cost efficient enough to be used commercially in the near future. Because most food and drinks aregenerally products prone to spoilage, innovations in preservation are very important to the foodindustry by minimizing the necessity to throw away products which leads to losses for the industry andretailers.5.1.12 High pressure conservation (pascalisation)If food products are exposed to high pressure (500 – 10000 bars) over a period of several minutes tohours, the same reaction effects can occur that would also happen under great heat. This leads to akind of “heatless cooking effect” in regard to texture and more importantly, micro-organisms will bedestroyed without negatively effecting important nutrients, aroma and colour. Since the proteins beingchanged through such pascalisation have better properties than those being exposed to heat, highpressure conservation could also lead to improved meat, fish and milk products. High pressure,together with supercritical carbon dioxide is also applied for extraction (e.g. of oils, lipids etc.) insteadof using solvents like alcohol or hexane, yielding more gentle and environmentally friendly results.Currently the pascalisation still necessitates new equipment and high investment costs. Currently thetechnology is mostly used for high-end products.5.1.13 Pulsed electric fields50The use of pulsed electric and magnetic fields (and ultra sound) is a novel form of food preservationwhich is already used on the industrial scale. The method destroys harmful micro-organisms andpromises long shelf-life preservation by maintaining a very good quality in flavour, nutritional value andfreshness.With this method, micro-organisms are killed by breaking their cell membranes when the food isplaced within a high electric field induced by a high voltage. It is especially suitable for liquid foods likejuices, milk products, soups and liquid eggs (cf. Ohio State University, 2005).5.1.14 Antimicrobial systems for food preservation51Protective bacterial culture can also provide anti-microbial functions, prevent spoilage and theproduction of toxins and thus serve as substitutes to chemical or heat preservation. Finding suitablebacterial cultures necessitates research in molecular biology and interdisciplinary co-operation (cf.ETHZ, 2007). 52Current research is also aiming at identifying natural antimicrobials like Wasabi or Rosemary andfiguring which types are most suitable for which kind of food and beverage. The further progress in thisarea will depend on new insights and research in molecular biology / micro-biology and the interaction50 http://ohioline.osu.edu/fse-fact/0002.html51 http://www.bt.ilw.agrl.ethz.ch/research/amcprotc.html52 http://www.dweckdata.com/Published_papers/Natural_Preservatives_update.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 56
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010between different components. Here effectiveness and toxicity of potential antimicrobial agents haveto be evaluated. Genetic engineering could also be used to create specific antimicrobial systems.Challenges and barriersConsumer perception: Many customers are still reluctant to accept the use of genetic technology,ionised (radioactive) radiation, other technological forms of improved conservation and new kinds ofadditives for food conservation. Natural preservatives, however, seem to be very popular and alsoattract growing attention by the industry.5.1.15 Converging technologies for food safety testing53Currently, it takes rather long until dangerous bacteria can be discovered in the food chain. Samplesof the products have to be taken and sent to a lab for analysis, which could take days in the worstcase. MEMS-technology (micro-electromechanical systems) has made it possible to put sensors,optical components, so-called fluid channels and microscopic pumps on a microchip-like device to runcomplex laboratory tests. These small devices have the advantage to be mobile and run analysis inmuch shorter time. Improvements in micro- and even nano-scaled sensor technology and the system-integration of nano-bio-sensors (containing biological elements that serve as sensors andphysicochemical components that transform the detected biosignal into a machine/human readableform) is making LOCs increasingly attractive for the food industry. This technology enables fast andon-the-spot analysis for the detection of various contaminations (cf. Sozer/Kokini, 2008). LOCs arealready being used in medicine (e.g. for detecting cancers, bacteria, blood analysis), public health(e.g. disease control) and water testing. They are generally getting more versatile (detecting anincreasing variety of substances) and precise. Further price reductions may in the more far awayfuture even lead to throwaway sensor systems that could be integrated into food packaging or do-it-yourself food testing kits.Challenges and barriersHigh costs: Current barriers still lie in the relatively high costs of LOC systems, but prices are alreadybeing reduced and the systems are getting better and more robust. Further technological progress islikely to make LOC technology more ubiquitous in the food industry.5.1.16 Reduction in energy, greenhouse gases and waterconsumptionThe energy consumption of the food and drinks manufacturing industry ranges in the mid field of themost important industries. With a 10.87% share in energy consumption of the most importantindustries within the EU-25, food and drinks (and tobacco) manufacturing is ranked behind iron andsteel, chemicals and petrochemicals, non-metallic minerals and paper and pulp production (IEA, 2007;data availability for 2004). However, agriculture, packaging, transport and retail also contribute to the53 http://www.atp.or.at/Docs/agro1.pdf and http://www.atp.or.at/Docs/agro1.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 57
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010final energy and environmental balance of food and beverage products. According to the FAO, cattlefarming produces more greenhouse emissions than transport (FAO, 2006) and the water usage forfoods and drinks manufacturing is substantial. According to data from the Global DevelopmentResearch Center, the amount of “virtual water” in food products can be very great and goes mostlyunnoticed.The following example the amount of “virtual water” – i.e. water that is needed to grow and process 54the product :Box 5.3 Virtual water1 cup of coffee needs 140 litres of water1 kg maize needs 900 litres of water1 litre milk needs 1000 litres of water1 kg of wheat needs 1350 litres of water1 kg of rice needs 3000 litres of water1 kg beef needs 15500 litres of waterThe food and drinks industry also accounts for considerable amounts of waste due to overproduction 55with the ready-meal and convenience sector as a main contributor (cf. T. Staikos, 2008). Food andbeverage manufacturers as well as retailers and fast food chains are already addressing this problemand seek put innovative ideas. Researchers at University of Birmingham, for example are developingways to use chocolate waste for energy production (University of Birmingham, 2008) and Japan ispromoting the use of food leftovers and residues from industrial processing for animal feeding andfertilisers. The use of leftovers as animal feed also comes with downsides in regard to hygiene and 56safety (IHT, 2008). Using leftovers as energy source, however, looks like a positive idea, especiallyin view of the growing popularity of regenerative energy sources. Bio-energy and renewable rawmaterials currently are popular new forms of income to farmers. However, the planting of crops thatare exclusively used for fuel production directly competes with arable land use for growing food meantfor human and animal consumption, and may hence lead to a substantial increase in relative prices offood and feed, if not to conflicts in the near future.Challenges and barriersEco-packaging: The call for environmental sustainability has made the idea of bio-degradablepackaging (e.g. biopolymers, bioplastics etc.) increasingly attractive. However, their use for the foodindustry is only limited, because these materials which are derived from living organisms (that oncehad pores), cannot be sealed air-tight. Above this, they are not very heat resistant and decomposerather quickly. This does make (non-synthetically enhanced) biopolymers unsuitable for liquids andproducts with a long shelf life.54 Sources: http://www.gdrc.org/uem/footprints/water-footprint.htmlhttp://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/productgallery&product=beef (beef)55 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFR-4TY8W65-1&_user=603085&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000031079&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=603085&md5=d8a1269a4ab71014ec6e91ee5eca1fe356 http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/23/business/food.php?page=1Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 58
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Conscious use of natural resources: this challenge holds for most industrial (manufacturing) activity,yet might gain importance, also from the consumer (selling) perspective in the future. Energyefficiency, promoted in one of the recommendations of the High Level Group on the Competitivenessof the Agro-Food Industry, is only one of the challenges towards a more conscious use of naturalresources. Other problems deal with general issues like the still growing amount of malnourished andstarving people, especially in Africa and some parts of Asia, huge gaps between overproduction andinsufficient food and clean water and food security in face of a growing world population.5.1.17 Miscellaneous: food pills, innovations from space researchFood pills: The idea of food pills goes back to 1930s science fiction. Although there are a lot of foodsupplements being sold today, their effectiveness is much disputed and none of them is intended as acomplete long-term replacement for food. This is due to the fact that the nutrients work in differentways if they are consumed within real food or just taken separately in form of pills. Real foods containmany other substances that for example help vitamins to work in the body in the desired way. Furtherscientific knowledge about metabolism, the workings of the human body and the interplay betweendifferent food ingredients could, however, make possible new forms of food pills and mealreplacement drinks that take into account this complexity of different ingredients. Although they mightnot become popular with the mainstream, for the military, astronauts and emergencies the idea ofinnovative food pills could become a useful idea. Especially the military (e.g. DARPA) does extendedresearch on “food pills”.Challenges and barriersNutritional value and social factors: As research about food supplements suggests, there seems to bea big difference between foods/drinks and pills in regard to their nutritional utilisation in the humanbody. Since eating is to a great deal a social activity, food pills may not become popular with the greatpart of the population out of cultural reasons.Innovations from space research: Feeding future astronauts on long space journeys is a challengeand could bring about food innovations from other perspectives. Besides challenges for foodpreservation, weight reduction, textures suitable for zero/micro-gravity and hygiene, also new foodsources are taken into consideration. The ESA is already thinking about healthy food sources thatcould be grown on Mars or during extended space flights. One of their envisioned ingredients is 57Spirula, a blue-green algae which is very rich in essential nutrients (ESA, 2005) and is already soldas nutritional supplement. Besides for food consumption, Spirula can also be used for energyproduction.57 http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMQTE1DU8E_index_0.htmlEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 59
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Another proposal being made to the space agencies is the use of silk worms as food source. They arealso rich in proteins, amino acids and nutrients – about twice the amounts found in pork - and can be 58raised in a space- and energy-efficient manner (Horizons, 2009) .5.1.18 Food automationThe food industry is currently a major growth factor for the robotics industry (World Robotics, 2008).As robots are becoming more “intelligent”, especially in regard to pattern recognition, more sensitive(being able to handle fragile objects and being fitted with improved sensors) and cheaper, the growthis likely to continue.ICT solutions are also getting increasing attention in the food and beverage manufacturing industryand logistics, especially in food chain management and traceability. If the trend is also going moretowards the direction of personalised foods and drinks and the customised engineering on bio-scientific bases, computer assistance will become necessary for food development. According to aFrost and Sullivan report from 2009, the food and beverage industry is increasingly becoming a major 59purchaser of wireless technology and robotics (cf. Control Engineering Europe, 2009) . A fullyautomated food factory is generally thinkable, but has its downsides (e.g. unemployment).Challenges and barriers“Intelligence”: It is currently difficult to predict the future path and speed of developments in ArtificialIntelligence (AI) and robotics. Processing power is expected to increase throughout the next decadeaccording to Moore’s assumptions (“Moore’s law”), which will be essential for progresses inbiosciences and neurosciences that could contribute to future food developments. Processing poweralone does not necessarily say anything about the level of “machine intelligence”, whereas anincrease in processing power is regarded as a precondition for further AI developments.Consequences for the workforce: If robots and computer technology progresses, fully automated foodand beverage factories may not be that difficult to implement within the next 20 years (there alreadyexisted (nearly) fully automated car factories in Japan). At the same time this would imply a majorchange, since currently the food and drinks manufacturing industry is the largest employer inEuropean manufacturing. A declining active workforce because of ageing, on the other hand, couldmake further automation in the food and drinks industry a more acceptable solution.5.2 New markets due to societal developments5.2.1 Lifestyle and market diversificationFoods and drinks can be necessities (basic foodstuffs having very inelastic demand curves) but alsoluxury goods (think of champagne, caviar, or luxury restaurant meals, all having rather elastic demand58 http://media.www.eraunews.com/media/storage/paper917/news/2009/03/11/SpaceNews/Researchers.Propose.Using.Silk.Worms.For.Astronaut.Food-3667018.shtml59 http://www.controlengeurope.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=22158Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 60
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010curves and higher income elasticities). Food and beverage consumption in today’s modern society arevery much linked to lifestyles.A very plausible future development would be the continuation or even further increase in existingmarket segmentation and diversification, with an even greater variety in consumption patterns anddifferent lifestyles ‘co-existing’: traditional food and drinks alongside with convenience-oriented and‘alternative’ natural and organic products, and niche markets such as ethnic and exotic, low carb, anti-fat, anti-aging and best-aging foods and drinks (e.g. Trendstudie Food by ZMP/CMA, 2007; see alsoMüller, 2007). Chilled food (high quality, cooled products with a short lifetime), regional food, healthand convenience foods are the big trends, also for the future (ZMP/CMA, 2007).Another driving force on the consumer-side is the so-called LOHAS-movement, shirt for Lifestyle ofhealth and Sustainability that gains international popularity within Europe, Japan and the US. Although 60no official statistical material is available, estimations talk about 20% of the US population , up to 44% 61 62of Germans and around 29% of Japanese identifying themselves as LOHAS. The movement iscurrently growing and spreading and encompasses many of today’s popular concerns and lifestylechoices about health, human and animal rights, the environment and spirituality. Since it is a ratheryoung phenomenon, around 10 years old, it is currently difficult to predict if it will last, disappear (e.g.just being a hype) or merge with or transform into something different.With the current trend of lifestyle diversification continuing, the range of products is likely to broaden.The large food and beverage manufacturers will very likely try to aim at the mainstream life-stylesegments and concentrate on general health and wellbeing and convenience with a greater attentionpaid towards natural ingredients and allergy concerns if the current trends continue. Traditional,regional and “ethnic” foods are currently mostly provided by smaller companies and specialtyproducers. If the mainstream interest in such products will grow, possibly strengthened by immigration,larger companies are also likely to offer according products. This observation can already be madewith Chinese, Indonesian and Indian food in, for instance, the Netherlands. Vegetarian products, halalfood (suitable for Muslims) and products fitted towards different life-style groups – from ‘naturalists’ to‘emerging-technology advocates’ – are likely to further evolve and grow as niche markets.Challenges and barriersDiversification and market transparency (information) do not naturally go together. Especially wheresafety and health are at stake, comprehensive, clear, legible and coherent information should beprovided. As is also recommended by the High Level Group on the Competitiveness of the Agro-FoodIndustry (HLG, 2009), there is a role for the European Commission and the Member States to enableconsumers to make (better) informed and healthy choices. Labelling provisions are one of the meansto better organise the provision of information to consumers. Labelling should also take into account60 http://www.lohas.com/about.html61 http://www.lohas.de/component/option,com_mkpostman/task,view/Itemid,44/id,35/62 http://lohas.groupsite.com/main/summaryEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 61
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010the needs of the elderly. If diversification grows, niche segments may become smaller, thus makingunprofitable.5.2.2 Demographics – an ageing societyThe share of Europeans being older than 65 will rise from 16.3% in 2010 to 20.8% in 2025 and theshare of people being older than 80 will rise by 1.1% within this time. At the same time, the share ofchildren from 0 to 4 years of age will decrease by 0.4% during this period in Europe. Above this, therewill be a slight population decline in Europe from 2010 to 2025 (UN population statistics). Thesedemographic developments will lead to changes in consumer structure with a greater proportion ofelderly and a declining number of babies and toddlers. Food producers need to adapt towards thesetrends that will become even more pronounced as time progresses. Since elderly need differentnutrition than younger people due to changes in metabolism and physical characteristics, it is likelythat the industry will also adapt and offer tailored, more customised solutions to elderly. Greaterconcerns about aging could also lead to changes in habits like healthy eating, dieting or caloricrestriction.Challenges and barriersThe relationship between ageing, food, health and longevity is something that stands only at thebeginning of its potential. Scientific achievement (food and medicine) and better communicationshould go hand in hand to deliver this potential.5.3 Organisational change and firm strategies5.3.1 Knowledge transfer and open innovationMany developments that could support the food and beverage industry to innovate are beinggenerated outside the sector, e.g. in ICT, bio(techno)logy, health sciences, nanotechnology and evenpsychology and cognitive science. Therefore the open innovation concept, i.e. the strategic usagefrom knowledge outside the sector, can be very relevant for the food and beverage manufacturingindustry. Open innovation could help the rather “conservative” food and beverage manufacturingindustry to better integrate new knowledge and developments and to cope with the often mentionedproblem of shortages in highly qualified (scientific) personnel. Positive experiences can be observed inclusters like Bretagne (France) or Øresund (Sweden), where actors from the whole value chain andrelated complementary areas like biotechnology, health and ICT as well as research institutes, largefirms and innovative SMEs (e.g. university spin-offs) are located in close proximity to each other.These constellations have been especially fruitful for the development of innovative functional andhealthier foods and drinks.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 62
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Challenges and barriersBest practices and learning from open innovation experiences in other sectors (e.g. the High Tech(Philips) campus in Eindhoven, the Netherlands; IBM, but also DSM, a chemical manufacturer andactive in the novel and functional foods segment.5.4 Establishing trustAlthough large food companies are apparently already using nano-particles in food, use geneticallymodified micro-organisms to produce certain enzymes and components for food processing and aredoing active research in food nanotechnology, they are keeping a very low public profile about it (cf. 63nanowerk, 2008) .Challenges and barriersThis is mainly due to uncertainty and fear about consumer reactions, which even looks justifiable iftaking into account that actually very little scientific evaluation is being performed in regard to foodnanotechnology.Currently there seems to be a trust problem between the major actors involved in the food andbeverage complex: the industry, regulators and consumers. Regulators often stand in a difficultposition between consumer interests and the industry as the following examples are indicating. Thehealth claim regulations that went into force in January 2008, for example, are meant to protectconsumers from false promises and misleading advertisement on food and beverage products. For theindustry, however, this means that only health claims are allowed which are scientifically proven andassessed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This comes with high costs for research,development and evaluation for the industry and only large firms are likely to be able to conduct suchactivities. Similar problems apply to novel foods, because in view of the industry it often takes too longuntil a new product gets approved. The latest proposal from 2008 for amending the novel food63 http://www.nanowerk.com/spotlight/spotid=5305.phpEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 63
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010 64regulation aims at simplifying the bureaucratic process (EC, 2008) , but it will not affect the criteria forassessment. The trust-relation between the consumer and the industry (especially large companies)on the one hand and the consumer and the regulators on the other do not seem to be very goodeither. Consumers and consumer advocacy groups generally seem sceptical about large food andbeverage manufacturers, but also often distrust regulators, which in their view allow products to enterthe market prematurely. Some even voice criticism about the scientific testing performed by the EFSA(e.g. in regard to GMO safety). The winners of the current apparent deadlock may be SMEs and smallcompanies that can establish a rather personal trust relation with the customer, the looser may beinnovativeness. Therefore it is necessary for the food and drinks manufacturing industry (especiallylarge companies) but also agro-food in general, to build up a better trust relation with the customer.Improved transparency and involvement of the customers, including final consumers, within theinnovation process are important strategies to improve credibility and trust. Even though theintroduction of new ingredients and food and beverage processing agents, e.g. based on GMO ornanotechnology, may provide advantages and cost reductions, insufficient customer communicationabout it could easily lead to distrust and a general negative perception about the industry andinnovation. Trust in scientific analysis and public food-testing institutions should be improved as well.Current mistrust, where existing, however, might rather be rooted in societal attitude and perceptionthan in objective insufficient scientific analysis. An increased and better involvement of consumers indeveloping innovation concepts and activities could have positive effects by sharing responsibility overthe results with consumers. The role of government as an independent neutral supplier of informationcould help to improve trust and credibility.5.4.1 Flexibility and diversificationAs has been shown in the previous sections, consumers represent a very wide spectrum of interest inregard to choices for food and drinks. It is also difficult to predict which information customers willbelieve and which trend they will follow. Also advances in science, especially within new and emergingareas, could lead to fast revisions and updates of findings and information. If taken together, thissituation necessitates an agile and flexible industry and ditto diversification strategies in order to beable to react fast towards consumer interests and new scientific discoveries. This especially holds forthose producers that focus on novel and innovative products, not yet unexplored.Challenges and barriers: enhancing the entrepreneurial capabilities of especially SMEs, includingmicro-enterprises, providing them with adequate financial support (private equity, loans) andfacilitating access of SMEs to global markets belong to the challenges that need to be taken up in thecoming years. See also the recommendations of the High Level Group on the Competitiveness of theAgro-Food Industry (HLG, 2009).64 http://ec.europa.eu/food/food/biotechnology/novelfood/COM872_novel_food_proposal_en.pdfEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 64
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105.4.2 Open innovationThe strategic co-operation with firms and institutions that can provide complementary skills and theintegration of outside knowledge could help the food and beverage manufacturing industry to innovateand solve the prevailing problem of lacking highly qualified personnel. Experiences withinterdisciplinary clusters where food and beverage companies operate in close proximity touniversities, research institutes and other areas like biotechnology, health and ICT have gainedpositive results. (More information about clusters and networks can be found in the report on “Patternsand Performance of Sectoral Innovation”).Intellectual property right however seem to remain a challenge for the food and beverage industrybecause recipes that for example only effect taste but have no other functional property (i.e. beinguseful, novel or non-obvious) but are nonetheless crucial for the distinction and economic success offoods and beverage products are not patentable in many cases and obtaining other forms ofintellectual property rights protection (e.g. copyrights) for food/beverage products proofs difficult. Manyfood/beverage recipes do not fulfill the criteria of being useful, novel and non-obvious which are the 65necessary criteria for being patentable .Because of this, as one food expert based in Japan and Germany acknowledged, the food andbeverage industry tends to be hesitant about exchanging ideas with potential competitors and otherfirms. While outside knowledge is often very welcome, firms try to avoid knowledge leakages to theoutside and other firms.5.4.3 User-driven and user-oriented innovationUser-driven and user-oriented innovation, i.e. the integration of suppliers and customers into theinnovation process is also a new strategy that is being taken up by an increasing number of firms.Although the food and beverage industry has adapted the concept of “farm-to-fork” where everymember of the food value chain gets integrated into the process, the food and beverage industrynonetheless seems to lag behind in applying consumer-driven or consumer-oriented innovations. Thereasons for this are still unclear since food-and beverage-related research on this topic has only beentaken up rather recently (Grunert et al.; 2008). Grunert et al. have also noted in this context that the“food and beverage area […] is characterised by both many new products coming onto the market anda relatively slow change in eating habits and consumer preferences”, which has brought up the stillunsolved question about the interrelation between user needs and innovation (ibidem). Furtherelaboration could deal with the question about what kind of innovations and new products theconsumer wishes and if it is possible in the area of food and drinks to actually create new needs like itis done with ICT and entertainment products, for example?65 http://store.inventorprise.com/content_articles.php?id=1049Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 65
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105.4.4 E-marketing and advertisement (for SMEs)The selling of foods and drinks over the internet has it limits, which is partly due to the specific natureof the products that often require customer “inspection”. However, the internet can be an importanttool for advertising food and beverage products, to make them known to the public and get intocontact with customers. This strategy could especially be useful for SMEs. One company that makesmuch use of modern web-technology is the UK-based hugely successful SME “Innocent Drinks” (from 663 employees in 1999 to 220 in 2009) that specialises in smoothies . On their website “InnocentDrinks” offers news, newsletters, blogs, videos and networking opportunities besides productinformation. In this sense it looks like “reversed advertisement”, i.e. instead of having anadvertisement banner on a “general information website”, the company has created the web-service.5.4.5 SMEs and the future structure of the food and beverageindustryThe food and beverage industry is highly competitive with a few very large global players and only0.9% with more than 250 employees, comparatively few medium-sized enterprises (3.6%) and a verylarge amount of small and micro enterprises (95.5% of which 78.6% have less than 10 employees).The ten largest European food and beverage companies are sourcing, producing and sellingworldwide. Global sourcing is an important strategy, especially for large firms, but it also bears risks inregard to safety and standards in regulations. Small firms are often much more regional and evenregard locality and traditional production and products as an advantage. At the same time, small firmsappear also to function as a pool of promising, innovative ideas and products for large firms. This isespecially noticeable in the novel and functional foods segment, with strategic acquisitions (takeovers)being made by the latter comparable to what is observed in biotechnology.As long as consumers value small producers and their produce - which they apparently do – thefragmented structural of the food and beverage industry may not change substantially in the future.Some mergers and acquisitions especially between larger or large and mid-sized companies arethinkable as well as the emergence of highly innovative and perhaps specialised small companies withhigh growth potential, maybe out of university spin-offs or co-operations with biotechnology. Ingeneral, the food and beverage landscape is likely to remain diversified or perhaps become evenmore diversified in terms of number of firms.5.4.6 Promoting collaboration and a ‘culture of innovation’Innovation by the food and drinks industry is to a large degree dependent on developments outsidethe sector itself, e.g. in ICT, biotech, medicine, packaging, etc. Collaboration between food andbeverage players and those outside the sector, as well as with science could further enhance a morepro-active culture of innovation in the sector.66 http://www.innocentdrinks.co.uk/bored/Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 66
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20105.5 Institutional and legal changes5.5.1 Food labelling – increasing trustFood labelling gets mixed reactions from the food and beverage manufacturing industry. Somecompanies are using food labels as a form of advertisement (e.g. indicating “organic” food), whereasothers are signalling vital product information. The stricter new nutrition labelling rules proposed by theEuropean Commission in 2008 which includes front labelling, a minimum font size and mandatoryguideline daily amounts (GDA) has been criticised by consumer organisations of not going far enoughand by industry representatives (e.g. CIAA) for causing additional costs, practical problems (e.g. inregard to limited size of packaging) and having a bias towards processed foods in contrast to 67unprocessed products (euractiv, 2008).Above this, food labels that indicate genetically modified (and in the future maybe nanotechnology-based) ingredients are perceived by customers rather as warning signs than as conveyors of objectiveinformation.5.5.2 Global sourcing and standardised safety requirements –legislation and enforcement68The food chain and drinks is becoming more and more global with components used for food andbeverage production coming from all over the world. This holds for animal and arable/vegetableingredients, industrial ingredients (e.g. active ingredients and co-formulants from the chemicalsindustry) as well as final products. The emergence of regional and global supply networks representsa major challenge for food safety and requires substantial effort to maintain and improve consumertrust, especially because food laws and requirements are not internationally standardised.Implementation and enforcement of existing rules and regulations (policing) is an increasinglyimportant issue therefore. The International Organization for Standards (ISO) has already drafted aproposal (ISO 22000) for global food safety management, which is now under evaluation (ISO, 2006;ISO Focus, 2008). Within the European Union, the coordination between EU and national food safetyagencies is growing in importance, especially where implementation is concerned.Legislative initiatives also apply to novel emerging foods, and the more so given the global characterof the food and drinks markets. For instance, if nutraceuticals, i.e. foods with proven medicaltherapeutic effects, will be considered as a potential innovation trajectory, an adjustment of the currentlegal situation in the EU concerning the definition of food, medical devices and novel foods is likely tobe necessary.International difference in regulations and approval could become difficult for companies that produceand operate globally. Nestlé, for example, has taken its “Butterfinger” bar from European markets67 http://www.euractiv.com/en/health/industry-bashes-commission-proposals-food-labelling/article-16997368 http://www.iso.org/iso/22000_implementation_ims_06_03.pdf, andhttp://www.iso.org/iso/iso-focus_2008-12Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 67
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010because it contained GMO-maize and Coca-Cola (and others) would currently not be allowed to sellproducts that contain Stevia in EU-countries. Switzerland, however, has already allowed Stevia-products on the market in 2008 (idw, 2008).5.5.3 Balance between precaution and innovationMany regulatory frameworks like the novel-food regulation or the health-claim regulation are importantfor ensuring safety and preventing fraud. But too precautionary approaches can also hinder innovativeprocesses. If the assessment phase to new food and beverage products is too long or the uncertaintyabout the success of innovations in regard to legal issues and consumer acceptance are too high,innovation activities may just not pay off in an industry with low profit margins as it is the case withfoods and drinks. Here the general problem with long-term risk assessment shows, since innovationsare new by default potential long-term effects just cannot be known. On the other hand it does notmake much sense to run tests for 10 or 15 years before introducing a novel product. But these areexactly the points that make GMO or food nanotechnology so controversial and so difficult to assess.But although GMO foods are being consumed (by some) for 15 years (the Flavr Savr tomato was soldin 1994) without causing noticeable health problems, environmentalists and most consumer advocacygroups are still saying that it is too early for such products to be consumed because long-term riskshave not been assessed. Also a better quality control of consumer advocacy groups and theirscientific basis could also be taken into consideration.5.5.4 Establishing more trust in science and perform symmetricassessmentsPart of the problem and criticism may stem from a general distrust in science and technology that iscurrently still observable. This is a general societal problem in many countries and an analysis of thereasons for this should get more attention. This critical view about science, new technologies andnovelties leads to a positive bias amongst consumers towards the well-known, the natural and thetraditional, whereas these products are often even less well tested than new products. New foods anddrinks have to be assessed in view of the novel food regulation, whereas common foods likeraspberries or peanuts would very likely not get approved as food if they were novel or syntheticproducts. Innovative products should be rather assessed relative to the characteristics of establishedones, instead of the basis of novelty as such.5.5.5 Convergence between food and medicine?The further development of functional foods and drinks, advances in biotechnology and healthsciences as well as an increased emphasis on prevention in (public) health are likely to lead to anincreasing blur between normal nutrition, preventative or functional nutrition and medicine – at least intheory. Currently, the regulatory frameworks draw rather clear legal distinctions between food/drinksand medicine (Council Directives 65/65/EEC and 92/73/EEC) as well as between prevention, therapyEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 68
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010 69and “enhancement” . These legal distinction, however, are not in line with scientific and technologicalreality and might necessitate a revision in the foreseeable future.5.5.6 Education and trainingThe food and drinks manufacturing industry of the future will need a wide variety of different skills andcompetences as well as flexibility in order to flourish and keep up with latest scientific, technologicaland societal developments. The palette of necessary skills and educational backgrounds can rangefrom nutrition specialist, physicists, chemical engineers, modern biotechnology- and even medicalexperts over marketing and public relations professionals, environmental consultants, neuroscientistsand food designers to ICT and robotics experts. The current situation characterised by a shortage ofhigh skilled labour and recruitment difficulties does not look favourable for achieving the (future) goaland innovations. This situation could worsen even in those areas where competition between sectorsfor high skilled labour is likely to arise (e.g. chemists, ICT professionals).One solution to counter these shortages could be the creation of co-operations, joint ventures or open-innovation strategies. The most important aspect, however, might just be the realisation that newpossibilities for innovations in the food and beverage sector are opening up. Education policy couldcontribute by communicating the great importance of the food and beverage/agro-food industry forsociety and even (public) health, thus helping to generate more interest in the subject.In general, the food and drinks manufacturing sector has to be made more attractive for universitystudents in order to counter the current shortages of qualified personnel: improving image is essential.By focusing on the challenging character and the responsibility of the food and drinks sector, theinterest could be promoted. This may also be in line with the better integration of the customer asactor of responsibility as proposed earlier in the text.5.5.7 More scientific research and developmentIn all areas, spanning processed foods and drinks, organic foods as well as natural and syntheticingredients, more scientific and objective research is necessary in regard to effects, side effects andsafety. The consumer trust into governmental and EU scientific testing institutions also has to bestrengthened.Also it might be helpful if research, e.g. in regard to the reasons for obesity and civilisation illnesses, isperformed in a broader context that also takes into account societal factors like cooking habits insteadof primarily focusing on the industry and ingredients. A symmetric safety evaluation of “organic” foodsand drinks and “conventional” products could also be of advantage.Since nanotechnology has already entered the food industry, safety evaluations and regulationsshould also focus more on the aspect of particle size and not only on the kind of chemical elements or69 e.g. in regard to the “Human Enhancemet Debate” (http://www.itas.fzk.de/tatup/083/stoa-news.htm)Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 69
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010substances being used. This would mean that even the use of an already approved substance has to 70be re-evaluated when used on the nano-scale (cf. Europa NU, 2008).The following table provides an overview about major innovation themes featured within differentscenarios.70 http://www.europa-nu.nl/9353000/1/j9vvh6nf08temv0/vhwfke66kuyy?ctx=vhwbck0vhlt0Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 70
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks December 2010 Table 5.2 Overview of major innovation themes in different scenarios Innovation Themes Main Drivers Health/Safety Sustainability/Ethics Convenience/Efficiency Technological Socio-economics Business as usual Functional food Natural functional Smart testing Moderate application of new Mixed income situationc (consumer diversity) ingredients Automation and emerging science and Incoherent consumer preferencese technology Consumer scepticism and strictn regulation balances “radicala innovations”r Affordable and convenient Less relevancy in this Less relevancy in this Insect protein Automation and general Low economic prosperityi (large share of budget scenario scenario New fast food concepts technologies for efficiencies People have less timeo and convenience Automation in food/ beverage production, Health and long-term social and consumers) Food pills processing, distribution and environmental considerations are low marketing Controls and regulations only cover RFID minimum standards Advanced preservation technologies Going natural Inputs from Insect protein Insect protein Improved possibilities in basic Trust in “nature” and distrust in “big (large share of biotechnology and life Energy, water and Natural fast food food and nutritional research industries” ecologically responsible sciences greenhouse gas Natural functional Technologies like GPS and Association of “natural” and “organic” consumers) Natural functional reduction ingredients soil assessment that improve with health benefits ingredients and the efficiency of organic preservatives farming Medicinal food Indoor farming, high-rise (traditional) farming Natural and non-chemical preservation methods Smart labelling and smart packaging Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 61
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks December 2010High-tech nutrition Inputs from Use of renewable energy High tech fast food Sufficient funding and support Regulations that are favourable(large share of high-tech biotechnology and life sources Food pills for new and emerging towards medicinal and functional foodconsumers) sciences GMO science and technologies High trust in science Improved functional Adjustable food Biotech, medicine, health, Great interest in health and fitness foods Smart packaging nutrigenomics, nanoscience improvement Medicinal foods (high Smart testing Smart food packaging The masses follow “early adaptors” in tech) Automation new, innovative and functional foods Nano-based and drinks ingredients Marketing innovations (incl. Personalised nutrition neuromarketing) Advanced preservation Smart packagingEmergency Less relevancy in this Less relevancy in this Insect protein Everything that can increase Concerns over food security (enough(desperate consumers) scenario scenario GMO yields, production and food) and related problems nutritional value Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 62
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 20106 Policy IssuesAs already mentioned before, the principal technological possibilities in the area of food and beverageproduction are high and even growing. The major challenge, however, lies in bringing these possibilities inline with solving current challenges and fostering the developments towards desirable futures. Although‘desirable’ may mean different things to different people, some major aspects have been identified asbeing rather undisputable:6.1 Healthy Nutrition6.1.1 Making foods and drinks generally more healthierAs it has also been mentioned within the “Food for Life” reports (ETP 2007 and ETP 2005), healthy and ofcourse safe nutrition are key desires for society as well as the industry. This already starts with rathersmall improvements in common products. The reduction of ingredients considered as harmful to healthand wellbeing like trans-fats, cholesterol, too much salt and sugar as well as food ingredients that mayheighten the proneness to cancer should stand in the centre of attention and support. There exist twofactors that may counter these efforts which are costs and possibly consumer preferences. As food andbeverage processing is a very complex process and leaving out some ingredients may significantly affectthe end product even in important properties such as shelf life (e.g. in case of salt and sugar) as well asother properties like taste and consistency (e.g. fat), substitutions or reductions require the developmentof new production methods, recipes and thus innovation which requires investments. Here governmentsand policy-makers could provide support since healthier nutrition has a preventative effect that alsobenefits public health and can reduce costs there. As in regard to prices, ways should be found how tomake healthy nutrition affordable for all and here also information programs, training and education inschools could be good starting points.6.1.2 Evidence-based assessment of functional food possibilitiesMore and more attention is paid to functional food and the technological possibilities for furtherdevelopments exist and often come from other domains like biotechnology and medicine. However, someclaims about functionality are still more speculation than science and some benefits (e.g. of Ginkgo inregard to mental health) are disputes. Thus efforts in research should also be dedicated to sound andevidence-based assessment of functional ingredients and their real workings, benefits or even dangers forthe human body. The health claim regulations for functional foods and drinks and their advertisementalready seem to point towards the right direction of evidence-based functional food and drinks. This is alsoin line with the overarching goal of achieving healthier nutrition.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 71
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Also research in natural functional ingredients – ranging from health benefits to preservation methods –seems to get increasing interest also from the consumer side and should get supported since especiallymany artificial preservatives are considered having negative health effects.Such assessments should also be conducted in regard to the usage of GMOs or nanotechnologies in foodprocessing by improving risk-benefit analysis.6.1.3 Improvement of food safetyImproving food safety is another important aspect of healthy nutrition which can be achieved in differentways and needs to be considered throughout the whole food chain from farm to fork. It not only includesaspects like improved conservation methods (especially the development of conservation methods that donot compromise nutritional value and taste) and better and faster testing methods (e.g. based ondevelopments in biotechnology like lab-on-a-chip technologies) and innovations in packaging (smartpackaging that constantly measures and displays the real food quality) but also training programs inhygiene (e.g. Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points - HACCP) and stricter controls to uncoverhygiene problems and frauds.6.1.4 Promoting healthy eating and healthy cookingNot only industrial food and beverage processing can be a cause for health issues but also consumerchoices and improper food preparation and cooking at home. Schools could be a place where nutritionaleducation, healthy eating as well as cooking could be taught. Such curricula could be supported by policy-makers and ministries. It would also serve two positive purposes: a general improvement of personal andpublic health (e.g. by preventing food-related diseases such as obesity) as well as encouraging morepeople to get interested in nutrition-related work areas since many food and beverage companiescurrently are concerned about a lack of qualified personnel.6.2 Ecological Sustainability and Ethics6.2.1 Reducing energy and water consumptionThe energy consumption in food and beverage processing is mid-range as compared to other majorindustries, but especially water consumption and water contamination is high within conventionalagriculture and food/beverage processing. Some food and beverage companies are already developingstrategies for utilising renewable energy resources in food/beverage production or feeding food waste intothe energy cycle. Such ideas should get more support from industries, consultancies, governments,financial institutions and consumers.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 72
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010As in regard to waste, a potential conflict could occur between convenience and reduction in packaging(fast food), but also here solutions can be found like the usage of bio-degradable packaging or the use ofnatural packaging materials (e.g. leafs). However the usage of organic packaging materials could comewith trade-offs in regard to preservation (difficulty of air-tight packaging by using organic materials) andpossibly hygiene. But innovation support in material science and development could also yield moresuitable solutions in the future.6.2.2 EthicsEthical aspects in food consumption are also getting more important to a growing number of consumersand include issues like animal treatment and fair trade. Industrial/factory is considered as cruel for animalsand an increasing number of customers are becoming aware of this situation and choose products fromalternative methods in cattle farming and animal production. Meat in general is getting under growingcriticism from the perspective of health as well as ethics and animal wellbeing, and some innovative ideasfor producing meat without the need for whole animals from cultured cells are already under developmentand get support from animal rights and environmental groups (e.g. PETA).On the other side, meat consumption is also a matter of culture and habit. Therefore finding solutions for amore sustainable and ethical production should also be supported by policy from the perspective of healthand food safety (diseases and the use of growth hormones) as well as environmental sustainability andanimal protection (laws in regard to animal protection and slaughter).Although food security (getting enough food and drinking water) may not be a problem for the EU, there isalso a global responsibility and activities in other parts of the world can be related to the European foodchain and European activities can affect sustainability in other countries.6.3 Economy and business6.3.1 Affordability and qualityThe seemingly growing needs for efficiency in food/beverage processing and price reduction of productsseem to conflict with the calls for improvements in health, sustainability and safety. Many current practicesapplying less healthy ingredients or factory farming, for example, are said to be done due to pricecompetition. Thus, price policies as well as issues of overproduction and food waste may also be reflectedupon. Finding solutions for affordable quality and healthy choices seem to be an important issue.6.3.2 Innovation for SMEsThe food and beverage manufacturing industry is dominated by micro-enterprises with less than 10employees that make up 78.6% of all firms. In contrast SMEs and even micro-companies in niche areas ofEurope INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 73
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010new technologies that may be able to generate innovative goods and services, it may be more difficult forfood and beverage SMEs to innovate due to limited financial and human resources and higher labourintensity. Thus ways may be considered to better support food and beverage SMEs to improve theirproducts and obtain necessary know-how.6.3.3 Clusters and interdisciplinary cooperationAs it has been outlined within this report, the necessity of interdisciplinarity, e.g. between biotechnology,medicine, life sciences, material sciences, ICT and food and beverage production (through the whole foodchain) is getting increasingly important for improving parameters like healthy nutrition, safety andsustainability. Life sciences and biotechnology, for example, can help with improved testing as well asevidence-based assessment of health claims, functional food and healthy eating in general (e.g. based onfindings of nutrigenomics and metabolomics). Material sciences and ICT can improve packaging, shelf lifeand safety (e.g. through smart labels) as well as providing technologies for tracking, tracing and assessingecological footprints (e.g. through RFID tagging). But also societal, behavioural and psychological studiesare of value for analysing eating habits and consumer reactions towards products and marketing. Thus,the embedding of food and beverage companies into multidisciplinary clusters could provide fruitful inputsfor the generation of innovations.Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 74
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    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz: Bio-Siegel http://www.bio- siegel.de/CNN: Organic food sales growth slows http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/28/news/economy/organic_food.reut/European Technology Platform on Food for Life: Implementation Action Plan. http://ciaa.2bcom.net/documents/brochures/Broch%20ETP_IAPlan_1.pdfFinancial Times: McDonalds bucks trend by creating jobs http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c3d45e7c-e9b9- 11dd-9535-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1Fraunhofer IME (2008). Was will der Konsument der Zukunft (2025). Presentation: http://www.expoalemania.cl/docs/presentaciones/GlobalFood/PresentacionBjornSeidel.pdfIPTS: Functional Food in the European Union ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC43851.pdfLOHAS: http://www.lohas.com/Martin, J.: The Food Industry of 2030: From Food to Well-being. (Jean Martin, President CIAA). Presentation at the Conference Perspectives for Food 2030. European Commission, DG Research, 17-18 April 2007NASA (2004) Farming for the Future (http://www.nasa.gov/missions/science/biofarming.html)NASA (2004) Greenhouses for Mars (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/25feb_greenhouses.htm)Reuters: How green is my wallet? Organic food growth slows http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50R01C20090128Telepolis (2007). Das Essen der Zukunft. (http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/24/24245/1.html)WDR: Multi-Pizza mit wechselndem Geschmack. Nanotechnologie in Lebensmitteln. http://www.swr.de/swr1/rp/tipps/essen/-/id=446830/nid=446830/did=3268588/axyyx4/index.htmlInnovation and technology databases: www.quemot.wordpress.com and http://delicious.com/Innovation2030Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 79
    • Sectoral Innovation Foresight – Food and Drinks Sector December 2010Annex Workshop participantsJulio Carreras (AINIA, EE Network SEIMED Food&Drink)Henk Haagsman (Department of Infectious Diseases and Immunology, Utrecht University)Govert Gijsbers (TNO)Miriam Leis (TNO)Tine Anderson (Danish Technological Institute)Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch 80