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HouseholdS: rebalancing the world The Resilient Interface Managing on rebalancing the world $2 a day As households prepare for climate disasters, manage their sustainability transition, and engage i n n o v a t i o n in collaborative Sharing in novat i o n to create zo ne s zo ne s consumption, a new social wealth resilience will rewrite the relayrides.com rules of good housekeeping.basic resources basic resources Money: LAND: TIME: Protecting squatter land rights Banking Banking Decontructed Banking with The Right to Place A New Affluence social your phone contributions New payment platforms, starbucks.com From urban to rural, from As a new generation of timebanks.org new currencies, and new the gobal north to the global rioonwatch.org time economists declare open money strategies will south, demands for the that “time isn’t money,” we deconstruct banks and Right to Place may trigger will invent and advocate Gamifying Fighting money itself—and perhaps a global wave of social new ways to appreciate Building the value foreclosures rewrite the rules of our larger movements focused on our most universal human time of social across affluence political economies. interaction land reform. the U.S. asset: the 24/7/52. timeday.org imhomedia.com ussf2010.org new meaningsnew meanings COMMUNITY: LANGUAGE: Translating LAW: DEATH: Digitizing Making Debating the Beyond Polemics disparities The Multilingual Internet the world on Strategic Personhood bounds of Ghosts in the Machine memorial visible your smart markers personhood phone Already expanding well personalrosettas- Our digital experience IFTF For the first time in en.wikipedia.org Death will remain an tone.com jibbigo.com of reality will make the human history, thousands beyond Homo sapiens, the inescapable fact of life, but connection points between Search of languages that give boundaries of personhood the abundance of self- Ula Kawczynska Top News ‧ Most Recent ‧ Contagion Feed Crowd- communities more visible are likely to grow further Protecting documentation will create Edit My Profile meaning to human Share: Status Photo Link Video Co-Work Seeing sourcing Contagion Feed Messages Whatʼs on your mind? the rights Events Takisha Azzeza and malleable—and new over the next decade, in digital emulations Friends Takisha shares your haplogroup origin. ourselves experience are going translations Emulating Collaborations 17 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore Sponsored Create an Ad of future - PRIVATE NOTICE - Credit Score Improver Network blowback alert: you have been identified as linked to financial credscoreimp.com instability by your friends Marisol Castro, Trixie Jameson, and Stuart Hansen. persuasive technologies will unexpected, disruptive, and of individuals, with Facebook suggests using Credit Score Improver to correct this problem. through with humans the dead Save yourself from the digital—changing the embarrassment of being labeled a financial risk in 19 minutes ago • Credit Score Improver • Ignore • Datashare to debunk persons your network. 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About to venture out into these crazy winds on my motorcycle. I hope I don’t get divisions between us disturbing—accuracy. blown into the Altamont windmills. IFTF culture of global exchange. research. 22 minutes ago • Like • Comment • Share Facebook suggests friendship with Jing Han for improved academic performance Jing Han justice.org microsoft.com Never tried snowshoeing before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything! and them. 25 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore • Recommend Ramakrishna Jing Han “As many faiths, so many CULTIVATIONwords from the famous bhakta saint indicate NETWORK paths.” These Connection with Jing Han has been linked that transideological spirituality is the norm, whether you follow an existing tradition or have fashioned the improved academic performance of to one that is your very own. friends Beth Heard and Tracy Stanton. 27 minutes ago • Like • Comment • Share Friend? • Ignore • Recommend to a friend Reginald Miles Reginald shares your water reservoir. 28 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore Fig. 2 disintegration exposure slow contagion persuasion Signals of climate adaptation CLIMATE: constraint SCALE: adaptive strategies google.com IFTFadaptive strategies Adaptation Strategies integration accountability fast isolation regulation baseline Selection Pressure critical balances critical balances simplicity forecast complexity Even as we work to mitigate With unprecendented pathways In the face of growing demand for In a decade that may require rapid In spite of isolationist sentiments Even as social, economic, and In a decade of instability, climate change, we will adapt biology gives us a strategy for integration across geographic, accountability, public exposure responses to adapt to changing and a focus on all things local, environmental challenges compel in thousands of small and transformation for evolutionary success: local ways to our changing institutional, and even species will emerge as a multi-faceted environmental, social, and eco- strategies that leverage social governments to intervene, highly Applying r/K selective Source: IFTF Applying four models to rapid innovation, rapid pressure theory: environment—leveraging boundaries, disintegrative strategy for disrupting existing nomic realities, slow will become contagion will shape everything refined strategies of persuasion reproduction, and rapid climate adaption: strategies that range strategies will unravel existing power structures, both hidden and a strategic byword as people from self-improvement to market will move beyond advertising failure of small systems— Google leverages experimentation, from simple to complex, • The Light Bulb Model rapid iteration, and willingness to • The Hybrid Car Model institutional strongholds. obvious, both criminal and socially rethink the values of convenience, development to local, national, to shape our actions, moment but with an eye toward fail in service of the big goal of from constraining to large future niches. • The Distributed Energy Model beneficial. productivity, and rapid growth. and global policy. by moment. aggregating detailed user data. transformative. • The Cap & Trade Model
rebalancing the world law: Strategic Personhood new meanings The legal concept of a “person” has implications far beyond the law. IthouSeholdS: The Resilient Interface organizes social, political, and ethical systems. Over time, the concept Community: Beyond Polemics has been defined ever more broadly, opening the door to new and Over the next decade, our digital connectedness, combined with ourAs the interface between individuals and the environments they unexpected definitions of personhood that could include not only ad new understanding of our biological bonds, will make the patternsinhabit, households are critical zones for adaptation to a volatile hoc networks of people but also non-human entities such as animals, of connection and separation more obvious. In the short term, thesedecade. The strategies they adopt, however, will depend not only nature, intelligent machines, and future generations. newly visible patterns will highlight both injustices and the potential foron their income level, but also on their perception of threats from new group identities. Longer term, they could actually change the waycatastrophes, demands for sustainability, and opportunities afforded SignalS our minds function and allow us to re-imagine ourselves as porousby a growing economy of sharing. P o l i T i c A l s T r AT e gie s : entities and our communities as a single living system.SignalS Achieving legal personhood has been a long-standing strategy of SignalS empowerment from slaves to women to corporations. The nextP r e P A r i n g f o r T h e w o r s T: decade is likely to see more focus on legal personhood as a strategy n e w c ATA ly s T s o f e m PAT h y:Across income levels, households use a variety of strategies from for achieving political and social goals. From social contagion theories to new work on group intelligence,stockpiling to backing up to diversifying their assets and options ➜ T r A c k : Foundation for the Rights of Future Generations research is showing us that individual traits are not as important asand outsourcing their security as a way to hedge against all kinds our connections (often to three degrees of separation) in shaping ourof disasters. non-humAn Persons: health, happiness, and even wealth. How will we treat strangers when➜ T r A c k : Strategies that address Portfolios of the Poor (Daryl Already scientists and legislators are showing a willingness to endow we understand that they could be essential to our own well-being?Collins, et al) / Black Umbrella disaster preparedness services non-human entities with legal personhood. Some of these “persons” ➜ T r A c k : Group intelligence research by Thomas W. Malone, director may be individuals of another species, but just as corporations may be of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence / Macon Money game thatB e c o m i n g s u s TA i n A B l e : persons, non-human collectives may also be accorded personhood. tries to build interactions across economic lines in Macon, GeorgiaAll but the poorest households will use a combination of “reduce” ➜ T r A c k : Ecuador’s granting of constitutional rights to nature /and “reinvent” strategies to cope with the demands of shifting from Porous PercePTion: Scientists’ recent calls for dolphins to be treated as “non-human persons”an oil-based economy with abundant water to an electricity-based As our digital experiences map the interconnectedness of our materialeconomy with scarce water. A d h o c n e T w o r k in c o r P o r AT i o n : lives, we will see in some surprising ways that humans operate not➜ T r A c k : Global Village Construction Set / Tiny House Design / Seeking the same rights and protections as corporations, networks only as discrete nodes in networks but also as an integrated biologi-Rising Sun Energy Center’s green energy training services of individuals will likely create entirely new classes of lightweight cal and social system, leading to a more porous perception of who we organizations, distributed cognitive systems, and mind-bot collectives. are. We may begin to evolve entirely new ways of perceiving and ofB u il d in g A c o l l A B o r AT i v e e c o n o m y: responding neurologically to the communities we occupy. ➜ T r A c k : Vermont’s efforts to become the “Delaware of theFrom the poorest to the richest, households will use new social ➜ T r A c k : Tools and systems that connect present-moment Internet” by providing ease of incorporation to network organizationstechnologies to build new value from social exchanges while reducing experiences to those of others around the worldthe friction in mutual support and sharing.➜ T r A c k : NeighborGoods / RelayRides / Woody Tasch’s Slow Money death: Ghosts in the Machine language: The Multilingual Internet As digital technologies continue to infiltrate every aspect of our lives— basic resources and as more of our lives are captured digitally and stored in the cloud— For the first two decades of its existence, English has dominated the web. Now that is poised to change as the architecture of the Internet the social rituals surrounding death are evolving in ways that may allows countries and language groups to set up domain names in non-money: Banking Deconstructed fundamentally alter the lives of the living. As “ghosts in the machine,” Roman scripts and tools support rapid translation in both written and the dead are present in life in new and sometimes disturbing ways. spoken resources on the web.Money—and the practices around it—are being reinvented daily as newmobile payment platforms, new forms of currency, and new platforms for SignalS SignalScreating value from human interactions rewrite the rules of the marketplace.The innovations in our on-the-ground use of money and near-money over d i g i TA l P e r s i s T e n c e : in T e r n AT i o n A l d o m A in n A m e s ( id n s ) :the next decade have the potential to reach well beyond the marketplace to More and more people are building identities and relationships in socialchallenge the very foundations of our governance systems. Activists have convinced the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and networks and virtual environments, and these often persist in the digital Numbers (ICANN), which regulates the core code for the Internet, to enable world even after they die, sometimes causing pain and awkwardness to non-ASCII scripts at the level of .com and .org extensions.SignalS those who come upon these digital ghosts accidentally. ➜ T r A c k : First IDNs introduced in 2010: United Arab Emirates, Russiann e w PAy m e n T P l AT f o r m s : ➜ T r A c k : Professional services that emerge to handle the details of Federation, Saudi Arabia, and EgyptMobile payments got their start in Africa, but they’re spreading shutting down digital personas after deathworldwide, with fierce competition between carriers, device T e x T- T o - s P e e c h c o n v e r s i o n :manufacturers, and retailers to take the friction out of payments virTuAl memoriAls: Innovations in voice recognition, speech synthesis, optical characterand make money from millions of transactions daily. Digital technology is also supporting new ways of memorializing those recognition, and human-assisted or autonomous machine transla-➜ T r A c k : Apple’s iPhone payment strategy / Starbucks’ mobile who have passed on, including webcasts of funerals, tombstones with tion are making oral and written communications more fungible andiPhone payments card / Visa’s acquisition of Playspan embedded digital images of the deceased, and online “obituaries” that thereby the wealth of Internet knowledge available to the illiterate or capture the digital memorabilia. those who speak one of the thousands of languages that have nevero n l in e l o A n P l AT f o r m s : ➜ T r A c k : 1000 Memories / RosettaStone headstones that use Near been committed to text.Robust personal information profiles held by Internet giants like Field Communication (NFC) technology to offer a “living record” at the ➜ T r A c k : Google’s online repository of oral presentations withAmazon and Google streamline risk analysis and make small, quick grave site interactive text transcriptsloans less expensive. v i r T u A l i m m o r TA l i T y: c r o w d s o u r c e d T r A n s l AT i o n :➜ T r A c k : ZestCash online loans by former Google CIO Douglas Merrill As life-caching practices capture more and more of a person’s daily While autonomous machine translation continues to improve, toolsc u r r e n c i e s o f e n g A g e m e n T: life online, the cutting edge of life-after-death will be social platforms that tap crowdsourcing practices to translate rare languages or valu- for memorial avatars—avatars that are built to look, sound, and able documents will increasingly support minority languages andAll kinds of companies are turning to gamification to keep people behave identically to the deceased. usher in an era of linguistic human rights.engaged with their products and services, creating new kinds ofvalue and micro-economies out of human interaction. ➜ T r A c k : Virtual Eternity’s platform for memorial avatars ➜ T r A c k : Wikibhasha, the crowdsourced translation platform from➜ T r A c k : Bunchball’s client list / IMHO’s media player site Microsoft Research India
law: Strategic Personhood adaptive strategiesThe legal concept of a “person” has implications far beyond the law. Itorganizes social, political, and ethical systems. Over time, the concept C limate: Adaptation Strategieshas been defined ever more broadly, opening the door to new andunexpected definitions of personhood that could include not only ad The dialogue about climate change is moving from mitigation andhoc networks of people but also non-human entities such as animals, large-scale geoengineering to adaptation to the changes that globalnature, intelligent machines, and future generations. warming will bring over the coming decades. Taking a systems approach, comparing strategies of simplicity and complexity on oneSignalS hand with conditions of constraint and transformation on the other, we will see a proliferation of strategies using four models of adaptation.P o l i T i c A l s T r AT e gie s : SignalSAchieving legal personhood has been a long-standing strategy ofempowerment from slaves to women to corporations. The next s i m P l i c i T y/ c o n s T r A i n T m o d e l :decade is likely to see more focus on legal personhood as a strategyfor achieving political and social goals. Easy to accomplish and generally inexpensive, these adaptations will become the default expected behavior.➜ T r A c k : Foundation for the Rights of Future Generations ➜ T r A c k : Solutions like fluorescent light bulbsnon-humAn Persons: s i m P l i c i T y/ T r A n s f o r m AT i o n m o d e l :Already scientists and legislators are showing a willingness to endownon-human entities with legal personhood. Some of these “persons” Harder to imagine, these are innovations that reduce the brittlenessmay be individuals of another species, but just as corporations may be of the system. They are disruptive but resilient.persons, non-human collectives may also be accorded personhood. ➜ T r A c k : Adaptations like distributed energy production➜ T r A c k : Ecuador’s granting of constitutional rights to nature / c o m P l e x i T y/ c o n s T r A i n T m o d e l :Scientists’ recent calls for dolphins to be treated as “non-human persons” Also hard to conceptualize and implement, these adaptations require theA d h o c n e T w o r k in c o r P o r AT i o n : formation of densely connected systems to boost efficiency and reduceSeeking the same rights and protections as corporations, networks waste. They create new dependencies but promise sustainable resultsof individuals will likely create entirely new classes of lightweight ➜ T r A c k : “Cap-and-trade” types of systemsorganizations, distributed cognitive systems, and mind-bot collectives. c o m P l e x i T y/ T r A n s f o r m AT i o n m o d e l :➜ T r A c k : Vermont’s efforts to become the “Delaware of theInternet” by providing ease of incorporation to network organizations These adaptations are more substantial, more expensive, and often politically and practically challenging to implement. ➜ T r A c k : Adaptations like hybrid carsdeath: Ghosts in the MachineAs digital technologies continue to infiltrate every aspect of our lives—and as more of our lives are captured digitally and stored in the cloud— SCale: Selection Pressurethe social rituals surrounding death are evolving in ways that may E.O. Wilson’s theory of r/K selection provides some guidelines forfundamentally alter the lives of the living. As “ghosts in the machine,” strategic use of scale in the coming decade. So-called r strategies arethe dead are present in life in new and sometimes disturbing ways. found among species (such as rats and bacteria) that are small, have multiple offspring, and spend little time on any one of them. K strate-SignalS gies are pursued by species like whales and gorillas that are large andd i g i TA l P e r s i s T e n c e : have few offspring that mature only slowly.More and more people are building identities and relationships in social SignalSnetworks and virtual environments, and these often persist in the digitalworld even after they die, sometimes causing pain and awkwardness to r s T r AT e gie s :those who come upon these digital ghosts accidentally. These strategies do best in times of ecosystem volatility, when➜ T r A c k : Professional services that emerge to handle the details of adaptation to rapidly changing conditions provides a strategicshutting down digital personas after death advantage. ➜ T r A c k : Mobile applications, which will provide the textbookvirTuAl memoriAls: exampleDigital technology is also supporting new ways of memorializing thosewho have passed on, including webcasts of funerals, tombstones with K s T r AT e gie s :embedded digital images of the deceased, and online “obituaries” that These strategies do best in stable environments where they can slowlycapture the digital memorabilia. develop a high degree of adaptation to a niche environment.➜ T r A c k : 1000 Memories / RosettaStone headstones that use Near ➜ T r A c k : Large media corporationsField Communication (NFC) technology to offer a “living record” at thegrave site r in The service of K: Perhaps most adaptive over the next few decades, r strategies thatv i r T u A l i m m o r TA l i T y: are all designed to serve a larger K strategy will position organizationsAs life-caching practices capture more and more of a person’s daily and communities for the greatest success.life online, the cutting edge of life-after-death will be social platformsfor memorial avatars—avatars that are built to look, sound, and ➜ T r A c k : Google’s strategy of constant experimentation and rapidbehave identically to the deceased. iteration in service of the overarching goal of linking users to advertisers➜ T r A c k : Virtual Eternity’s platform for memorial avatars