Iftf sr1379 2011_tyf_motd_rdr

  • 267 views
Uploaded on

 

More in: Technology
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
267
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. the future is a rebalancing the world:balancing act the 2011 map of the decade This map is all about balancing acts. From the strategicAs we step into the next decade, we balances at the bottom to the resilient households atsee a world that is out of balance. the top, it is both a snapshot of the decade ahead andWealth is skewed across nations, a guide to the task of rebalancing the world. It’s aacross communities, starting place for exploring the social innovationsand across households. that will create an entirely new strategic toolkit forYouth and aging is similarly skewed. addressing the world’s imbalances while securing theCities and rural areas depend on daily lives of individuals, households, corporations,one another, but their interests are and communities.often at odds. If we map access toeducation, health, and technologyaround the globe, we see surprising how to use this mappatterns of abundance, excess, and S ta r t w i t h t h e C r i t i C a l B a l a n C e Sscarcity. Citizen rights are non-existent in some areas while the verymeaning of citizen rights is hotly debated in others. The planet itself At the base of the global balancing act will beis struggling to balance the basic elements of life. five critical balances—five tensions that will give the decade its distinctive character. TheseThese imbalances will drive the next decade. Money, land, and are the strategies we will debate worldwide. Buttime—the basic resources of our daily lives—will demand new ways they are also the values we will use to measure ourof organizing ourselves to create new kinds of wealth. Innovations in progress toward our goals for a more liveable world.language and law, in our communities and even our deaths, will lendnew meanings to our shared realities. Climate change will demand Think of each balance as a dial that you can set for all youradaptations that are both simple and complex, constraining and major undertakings. How will you balance slow with fast, or thetransformative. risk of exposure with the rigor of accountability? Explore the signals on the map and in your own world to see how they might changeAtop this balancing act sits the household—the interface between each balance in the larger world—or serve as tools for adjusting theus, as individual humans, and the complex world we inhabit. Here balance to support your goals.is where we will perform our balancing acts on a daily basis. This iswhere we will confront a million small failures and create fresh, new t h e n e x p l o r e t h e i n n o vat i o n Z o n e Stemplates for success. new meanings From the adaptive strategies at theOur tools? Five critical balances will give us our strategic toolkit. bottom of map, work your way up theDisintegration will lead to new kinds of integration. Exposure will pair pyramid of new meanings and basic resources that will be keywith accountability. Slow movements will be matched with a new zones of innovation in the coming decade. Which zones offercapacity for fast response. Social contagion will mobilize change, the best win/win opportunities for balancing your own goals witheven as isolation rebuilds local stability. And powerful new forms of the goal of social resilience? How will you use these trends andpersuasion will reshape our approaches to regulation and control. transformations to hone your own adaptive strategies?In the decade ahead, we will work as individuals and households,as corporations and communities to turn these dials to find the F i n a l ly, B u i l d S o m e S o C i a l r e S i l i e n C eright balance. As in all balancing acts, the threat is collapse. For an hour or a year or a decade, focus on the household.The alternative, in this decade, is to use these balances toachieve what we might call a “social soft landing.” The 2011 Map household: A s k : How can I or my team, my social resilienceof the Decade is a guide to a decade in search of this kind of As households prepare project, my company, or my com- Managing $2 a daysocial resilience. munity increase household resilience for climate diasters, manage their sustainability transition, and engage collaborative consumption, while achieving all my other objectives? Sharing a new social resilience will to control rewrite the rules of good wealth housekeeping. If you’re a company, consider how your products or services could help households prepare for disasters, make the transition to a more sustainable lifestyle, or participate in a more collaborative economy.www.iftf.org T h i n k about households all around the world and in all124 University Avenue, Second floor income brackets. If you need help picturing the realities of thesePalo Alto, CA 94301 | 650-854-6322 households, go to globallives.org and watch the short videos of 10 households. Then play our new Ten-Year Forecast game. It’s© 2011 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks remainthe property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written called Stack-It! The Household Resilience Game, and a version isconsent. SR-1379 included in the 2011 Ten-Year Forecast.
  • 2. HouseholdS: rebalancing the world The Resilient Interface Managing on rebalancing the world $2 a day As households prepare for climate disasters, manage their sustainability transition, and engage i n n o v a t i o n in collaborative Sharing in novat i o n to create zo ne s zo ne s consumption, a new social wealth resilience will rewrite the relayrides.com rules of good housekeeping.basic resources basic resources Money: LAND: TIME: Protecting squatter land rights Banking Banking Decontructed Banking with The Right to Place A New Affluence social your phone contributions New payment platforms, starbucks.com From urban to rural, from As a new generation of timebanks.org new currencies, and new the gobal north to the global rioonwatch.org time economists declare open money strategies will south, demands for the that “time isn’t money,” we deconstruct banks and Right to Place may trigger will invent and advocate Gamifying Fighting money itself—and perhaps a global wave of social new ways to appreciate Building the value foreclosures rewrite the rules of our larger movements focused on our most universal human time of social across affluence political economies. interaction land reform. the U.S. asset: the 24/7/52. timeday.org imhomedia.com ussf2010.org new meaningsnew meanings COMMUNITY: LANGUAGE: Translating LAW: DEATH: Digitizing Making Debating the Beyond Polemics disparities The Multilingual Internet the world on Strategic Personhood bounds of Ghosts in the Machine memorial visible your smart markers personhood phone Already expanding well personalrosettas- Our digital experience IFTF For the first time in en.wikipedia.org Death will remain an tone.com jibbigo.com of reality will make the human history, thousands beyond Homo sapiens, the inescapable fact of life, but connection points between Search of languages that give boundaries of personhood the abundance of self- Ula Kawczynska Top News  ‧  Most Recent  ‧  Contagion Feed Crowd- communities more visible are likely to grow further Protecting documentation will create Edit My Profile meaning to human Share:          Status          Photo          Link         Video         Co-Work Seeing sourcing Contagion Feed Messages Whatʼs on your mind? the rights Events Takisha Azzeza and malleable—and new over the next decade, in digital emulations Friends Takisha shares your haplogroup origin. ourselves experience are going translations Emulating Collaborations 17 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore Sponsored Create an Ad of future - PRIVATE NOTICE - Credit Score Improver Network blowback alert: you have been identified as linked to financial  credscoreimp.com instability by your friends Marisol Castro, Trixie Jameson, and Stuart Hansen.  persuasive technologies will unexpected, disruptive, and of individuals, with Facebook suggests using Credit Score Improver to correct this problem. through with humans the dead Save yourself from the digital—changing the embarrassment of being labeled a financial risk in 19 minutes ago • Credit Score Improver • Ignore • Datashare to debunk persons your network. CSI gets results in 3 days or your Fred Sundar Tomek Kinsinski money back. HEALTH CONTAGION ALERT Being a dad has been very easy. Never has my insomnia been so convenient. The network eyes and machines grating sounds of the singing mockingbird have beentend Members of Tomek Kinsinski’s network transformed into a joyous chorus challenge the long-standing increasingly strategic ways. growing—and potentially Augmented Empathy to be overweight. This correlates to a 30% and accompaniment to Lulu’s screams, which become coos when I lift her to embrace. economics, politics, and google2empathize.com chance of gaining 10 lbs. within the year. Feeling joy? Frustration? 20 minutes ago • Like • Comment Connect him with support Unfriend? • Ignore • virtualeternity.com Connect with others and augment your own Facebook cautions about friendship with Tomek Kinsinski for increased body weight empathy by sensing Tomek Kinsinski intergenerational Unknown Buddies worldwide. About to venture out into these crazy winds on my motorcycle. I hope I don’t get divisions between us disturbing—accuracy. blown into the Altamont windmills. IFTF culture of global exchange. research. 22 minutes ago • Like • Comment • Share Facebook suggests friendship with Jing Han for improved academic performance Jing Han  justice.org microsoft.com Never tried snowshoeing before, but I guess there’s a first time for everything! and them. 25 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore • Recommend Ramakrishna Jing Han “As many faiths, so many CULTIVATIONwords from the famous bhakta saint indicate NETWORK paths.” These Connection with Jing Han has been linked that transideological spirituality is the norm, whether you follow an existing tradition or have fashioned the improved academic performance of to one that is your very own. friends Beth Heard and Tracy Stanton. 27 minutes ago • Like • Comment • Share Friend? • Ignore • Recommend to a friend Reginald Miles Reginald shares your water reservoir. 28 minutes ago • Friend? • Ignore Fig. 2 disintegration exposure slow contagion persuasion Signals of climate adaptation CLIMATE: constraint SCALE: adaptive strategies google.com IFTFadaptive strategies Adaptation Strategies integration accountability fast isolation regulation baseline Selection Pressure critical balances critical balances simplicity forecast complexity Even as we work to mitigate With unprecendented pathways In the face of growing demand for In a decade that may require rapid In spite of isolationist sentiments Even as social, economic, and In a decade of instability, climate change, we will adapt biology gives us a strategy for integration across geographic, accountability, public exposure responses to adapt to changing and a focus on all things local, environmental challenges compel in thousands of small and transformation for evolutionary success: local ways to our changing institutional, and even species will emerge as a multi-faceted environmental, social, and eco- strategies that leverage social governments to intervene, highly Applying r/K selective Source: IFTF Applying four models to rapid innovation, rapid pressure theory: environment—leveraging boundaries, disintegrative strategy for disrupting existing nomic realities, slow will become contagion will shape everything refined strategies of persuasion reproduction, and rapid climate adaption: strategies that range strategies will unravel existing power structures, both hidden and a strategic byword as people from self-improvement to market will move beyond advertising failure of small systems— Google leverages experimentation, from simple to complex, • The Light Bulb Model rapid iteration, and willingness to • The Hybrid Car Model institutional strongholds. obvious, both criminal and socially rethink the values of convenience, development to local, national, to shape our actions, moment but with an eye toward fail in service of the big goal of from constraining to large future niches. • The Distributed Energy Model beneficial. productivity, and rapid growth. and global policy. by moment. aggregating detailed user data. transformative. • The Cap & Trade Model
  • 3. rebalancing the world law: Strategic Personhood new meanings The legal concept of a “person” has implications far beyond the law. IthouSeholdS: The Resilient Interface organizes social, political, and ethical systems. Over time, the concept Community: Beyond Polemics has been defined ever more broadly, opening the door to new and Over the next decade, our digital connectedness, combined with ourAs the interface between individuals and the environments they unexpected definitions of personhood that could include not only ad new understanding of our biological bonds, will make the patternsinhabit, households are critical zones for adaptation to a volatile hoc networks of people but also non-human entities such as animals, of connection and separation more obvious. In the short term, thesedecade. The strategies they adopt, however, will depend not only nature, intelligent machines, and future generations. newly visible patterns will highlight both injustices and the potential foron their income level, but also on their perception of threats from new group identities. Longer term, they could actually change the waycatastrophes, demands for sustainability, and opportunities afforded SignalS our minds function and allow us to re-imagine ourselves as porousby a growing economy of sharing. P o l i T i c A l s T r AT e gie s : entities and our communities as a single living system.SignalS Achieving legal personhood has been a long-standing strategy of SignalS empowerment from slaves to women to corporations. The nextP r e P A r i n g f o r T h e w o r s T: decade is likely to see more focus on legal personhood as a strategy n e w c ATA ly s T s o f e m PAT h y:Across income levels, households use a variety of strategies from for achieving political and social goals. From social contagion theories to new work on group intelligence,stockpiling to backing up to diversifying their assets and options ➜ T r A c k : Foundation for the Rights of Future Generations research is showing us that individual traits are not as important asand outsourcing their security as a way to hedge against all kinds our connections (often to three degrees of separation) in shaping ourof disasters. non-humAn Persons: health, happiness, and even wealth. How will we treat strangers when➜ T r A c k : Strategies that address Portfolios of the Poor (Daryl Already scientists and legislators are showing a willingness to endow we understand that they could be essential to our own well-being?Collins, et al) / Black Umbrella disaster preparedness services non-human entities with legal personhood. Some of these “persons” ➜ T r A c k : Group intelligence research by Thomas W. Malone, director may be individuals of another species, but just as corporations may be of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence / Macon Money game thatB e c o m i n g s u s TA i n A B l e : persons, non-human collectives may also be accorded personhood. tries to build interactions across economic lines in Macon, GeorgiaAll but the poorest households will use a combination of “reduce” ➜ T r A c k : Ecuador’s granting of constitutional rights to nature /and “reinvent” strategies to cope with the demands of shifting from Porous PercePTion: Scientists’ recent calls for dolphins to be treated as “non-human persons”an oil-based economy with abundant water to an electricity-based As our digital experiences map the interconnectedness of our materialeconomy with scarce water. A d h o c n e T w o r k in c o r P o r AT i o n : lives, we will see in some surprising ways that humans operate not➜ T r A c k : Global Village Construction Set / Tiny House Design / Seeking the same rights and protections as corporations, networks only as discrete nodes in networks but also as an integrated biologi-Rising Sun Energy Center’s green energy training services of individuals will likely create entirely new classes of lightweight cal and social system, leading to a more porous perception of who we organizations, distributed cognitive systems, and mind-bot collectives. are. We may begin to evolve entirely new ways of perceiving and ofB u il d in g A c o l l A B o r AT i v e e c o n o m y: responding neurologically to the communities we occupy. ➜ T r A c k : Vermont’s efforts to become the “Delaware of theFrom the poorest to the richest, households will use new social ➜ T r A c k : Tools and systems that connect present-moment Internet” by providing ease of incorporation to network organizationstechnologies to build new value from social exchanges while reducing experiences to those of others around the worldthe friction in mutual support and sharing.➜ T r A c k : NeighborGoods / RelayRides / Woody Tasch’s Slow Money death: Ghosts in the Machine language: The Multilingual Internet As digital technologies continue to infiltrate every aspect of our lives— basic resources and as more of our lives are captured digitally and stored in the cloud— For the first two decades of its existence, English has dominated the web. Now that is poised to change as the architecture of the Internet the social rituals surrounding death are evolving in ways that may allows countries and language groups to set up domain names in non-money: Banking Deconstructed fundamentally alter the lives of the living. As “ghosts in the machine,” Roman scripts and tools support rapid translation in both written and the dead are present in life in new and sometimes disturbing ways. spoken resources on the web.Money—and the practices around it—are being reinvented daily as newmobile payment platforms, new forms of currency, and new platforms for SignalS SignalScreating value from human interactions rewrite the rules of the marketplace.The innovations in our on-the-ground use of money and near-money over d i g i TA l P e r s i s T e n c e : in T e r n AT i o n A l d o m A in n A m e s ( id n s ) :the next decade have the potential to reach well beyond the marketplace to More and more people are building identities and relationships in socialchallenge the very foundations of our governance systems. Activists have convinced the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and networks and virtual environments, and these often persist in the digital Numbers (ICANN), which regulates the core code for the Internet, to enable world even after they die, sometimes causing pain and awkwardness to non-ASCII scripts at the level of .com and .org extensions.SignalS those who come upon these digital ghosts accidentally. ➜ T r A c k : First IDNs introduced in 2010: United Arab Emirates, Russiann e w PAy m e n T P l AT f o r m s : ➜ T r A c k : Professional services that emerge to handle the details of Federation, Saudi Arabia, and EgyptMobile payments got their start in Africa, but they’re spreading shutting down digital personas after deathworldwide, with fierce competition between carriers, device T e x T- T o - s P e e c h c o n v e r s i o n :manufacturers, and retailers to take the friction out of payments virTuAl memoriAls: Innovations in voice recognition, speech synthesis, optical characterand make money from millions of transactions daily. Digital technology is also supporting new ways of memorializing those recognition, and human-assisted or autonomous machine transla-➜ T r A c k : Apple’s iPhone payment strategy / Starbucks’ mobile who have passed on, including webcasts of funerals, tombstones with tion are making oral and written communications more fungible andiPhone payments card / Visa’s acquisition of Playspan embedded digital images of the deceased, and online “obituaries” that thereby the wealth of Internet knowledge available to the illiterate or capture the digital memorabilia. those who speak one of the thousands of languages that have nevero n l in e l o A n P l AT f o r m s : ➜ T r A c k : 1000 Memories / RosettaStone headstones that use Near been committed to text.Robust personal information profiles held by Internet giants like Field Communication (NFC) technology to offer a “living record” at the ➜ T r A c k : Google’s online repository of oral presentations withAmazon and Google streamline risk analysis and make small, quick grave site interactive text transcriptsloans less expensive. v i r T u A l i m m o r TA l i T y: c r o w d s o u r c e d T r A n s l AT i o n :➜ T r A c k : ZestCash online loans by former Google CIO Douglas Merrill As life-caching practices capture more and more of a person’s daily While autonomous machine translation continues to improve, toolsc u r r e n c i e s o f e n g A g e m e n T: life online, the cutting edge of life-after-death will be social platforms that tap crowdsourcing practices to translate rare languages or valu- for memorial avatars—avatars that are built to look, sound, and able documents will increasingly support minority languages andAll kinds of companies are turning to gamification to keep people behave identically to the deceased. usher in an era of linguistic human rights.engaged with their products and services, creating new kinds ofvalue and micro-economies out of human interaction. ➜ T r A c k : Virtual Eternity’s platform for memorial avatars ➜ T r A c k : Wikibhasha, the crowdsourced translation platform from➜ T r A c k : Bunchball’s client list / IMHO’s media player site Microsoft Research India
  • 4. law: Strategic Personhood adaptive strategiesThe legal concept of a “person” has implications far beyond the law. Itorganizes social, political, and ethical systems. Over time, the concept C limate: Adaptation Strategieshas been defined ever more broadly, opening the door to new andunexpected definitions of personhood that could include not only ad The dialogue about climate change is moving from mitigation andhoc networks of people but also non-human entities such as animals, large-scale geoengineering to adaptation to the changes that globalnature, intelligent machines, and future generations. warming will bring over the coming decades. Taking a systems approach, comparing strategies of simplicity and complexity on oneSignalS hand with conditions of constraint and transformation on the other, we will see a proliferation of strategies using four models of adaptation.P o l i T i c A l s T r AT e gie s : SignalSAchieving legal personhood has been a long-standing strategy ofempowerment from slaves to women to corporations. The next s i m P l i c i T y/ c o n s T r A i n T m o d e l :decade is likely to see more focus on legal personhood as a strategyfor achieving political and social goals. Easy to accomplish and generally inexpensive, these adaptations will become the default expected behavior.➜ T r A c k : Foundation for the Rights of Future Generations ➜ T r A c k : Solutions like fluorescent light bulbsnon-humAn Persons: s i m P l i c i T y/ T r A n s f o r m AT i o n m o d e l :Already scientists and legislators are showing a willingness to endownon-human entities with legal personhood. Some of these “persons” Harder to imagine, these are innovations that reduce the brittlenessmay be individuals of another species, but just as corporations may be of the system. They are disruptive but resilient.persons, non-human collectives may also be accorded personhood. ➜ T r A c k : Adaptations like distributed energy production➜ T r A c k : Ecuador’s granting of constitutional rights to nature / c o m P l e x i T y/ c o n s T r A i n T m o d e l :Scientists’ recent calls for dolphins to be treated as “non-human persons” Also hard to conceptualize and implement, these adaptations require theA d h o c n e T w o r k in c o r P o r AT i o n : formation of densely connected systems to boost efficiency and reduceSeeking the same rights and protections as corporations, networks waste. They create new dependencies but promise sustainable resultsof individuals will likely create entirely new classes of lightweight ➜ T r A c k : “Cap-and-trade” types of systemsorganizations, distributed cognitive systems, and mind-bot collectives. c o m P l e x i T y/ T r A n s f o r m AT i o n m o d e l :➜ T r A c k : Vermont’s efforts to become the “Delaware of theInternet” by providing ease of incorporation to network organizations These adaptations are more substantial, more expensive, and often politically and practically challenging to implement. ➜ T r A c k : Adaptations like hybrid carsdeath: Ghosts in the MachineAs digital technologies continue to infiltrate every aspect of our lives—and as more of our lives are captured digitally and stored in the cloud— SCale: Selection Pressurethe social rituals surrounding death are evolving in ways that may E.O. Wilson’s theory of r/K selection provides some guidelines forfundamentally alter the lives of the living. As “ghosts in the machine,” strategic use of scale in the coming decade. So-called r strategies arethe dead are present in life in new and sometimes disturbing ways. found among species (such as rats and bacteria) that are small, have multiple offspring, and spend little time on any one of them. K strate-SignalS gies are pursued by species like whales and gorillas that are large andd i g i TA l P e r s i s T e n c e : have few offspring that mature only slowly.More and more people are building identities and relationships in social SignalSnetworks and virtual environments, and these often persist in the digitalworld even after they die, sometimes causing pain and awkwardness to r s T r AT e gie s :those who come upon these digital ghosts accidentally. These strategies do best in times of ecosystem volatility, when➜ T r A c k : Professional services that emerge to handle the details of adaptation to rapidly changing conditions provides a strategicshutting down digital personas after death advantage. ➜ T r A c k : Mobile applications, which will provide the textbookvirTuAl memoriAls: exampleDigital technology is also supporting new ways of memorializing thosewho have passed on, including webcasts of funerals, tombstones with K s T r AT e gie s :embedded digital images of the deceased, and online “obituaries” that These strategies do best in stable environments where they can slowlycapture the digital memorabilia. develop a high degree of adaptation to a niche environment.➜ T r A c k : 1000 Memories / RosettaStone headstones that use Near ➜ T r A c k : Large media corporationsField Communication (NFC) technology to offer a “living record” at thegrave site r in The service of K: Perhaps most adaptive over the next few decades, r strategies thatv i r T u A l i m m o r TA l i T y: are all designed to serve a larger K strategy will position organizationsAs life-caching practices capture more and more of a person’s daily and communities for the greatest success.life online, the cutting edge of life-after-death will be social platformsfor memorial avatars—avatars that are built to look, sound, and ➜ T r A c k : Google’s strategy of constant experimentation and rapidbehave identically to the deceased. iteration in service of the overarching goal of linking users to advertisers➜ T r A c k : Virtual Eternity’s platform for memorial avatars