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  • 1. The Outlook for Science Technology and Society
  • 2. Academy of FinlandThe Academy of Finland’s mission is to provide funding for high-levelscientific research, to offer science and science policy expertise, and Huom! Läppä 1 cm kapeampito strengthen the position of science and research. It serves all fields ofscience and research. Academy-funded basic research generates new knowledge and newexperts. The main focus of the Academy’s development efforts is onproviding career opportunities for researchers, supporting the develop-ment of high-level research environments and taking the best possibleadvantage of international opportunities.TekesTekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, is themain public funding organisation for research and development in Finland.Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects in research organisa-tions, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive projects. Foresighting provides a sound basis for Tekes’ strategic and operationalplanning. The strategic focus areas adopted by Tekes are based on jointforesighting work together with national and international stakeholders.The Academy and Tekes will use the results of FinnSight 2015 for develop-ing Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science, Technology and Innovation.
  • 3. 1 Learning and Learning Society: The Learning panel dealt with various activities related to individual and collective competence and its reproduction: different forms of education, learning on the job and education as a business. Competence is becoming an increasingly important resource for competitiveness and welfare. Growing empha- sis is placed on the challenges of life-long, flexible learning and the need for new approaches and for multidisciplinary learning research. 2 Services and Service Innovations: New service businesses and innovations are needed in all sectors of industry and public sector. The panel set out to address the following questions: “Who are services provided for, who provides those services and in what way?” Under the pressures of population ageing, mounting competition on theHuom! Läppä 1 cm kapeampi global service markets, and other similar trends, the challenge now is to raise productivity and to make good use of new technologies. 3 Well-being and Health: The panel dealing with the health and well-being of people in Finland identified a number of areas on which the national research and product development effort should be focused in the future. Well-being is influenced both by people’s health behaviour, advances in medicine, preventive health care as well as new health care services and innovations. The well-being of children and youths is paramount. 4 Environment and Energy: Sustainable management of the environment, availability of energy, new energy solutions and en- ergy efficiency are intricately interwoven with one another and pre- sent a complex challenge for research and innovation. According to the Environment and Energy panel Finland has proven compe- tence in environmental sciences and technologies. A stronger drive is needed to make new solutions and innovations commercialised. 5 Infrastructure and Security: The panel addressed a range of infrastructure and security issues that are more and more closely intertwined in today’s increasingly technological and global envi- ronment. Potential new security threats in society include inter- national crime and pandemics. Information and energy networks may be exposed to vulnerabilities, but on the other hand security of supply and operational safety are national competitive assets.
  • 4. 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society: There is an ever-growing need intoday’s changing world for basic research in biosciences and for biosci-ence applications. Expertise and competence in the biofield will have greatsignificance in most sectors of industry and society. The panel heavilyemphasised the need to ensure the performance of the whole chain fromthe basic knowledge to the effective commercial application of researchoutcomes. 7 Information and Communications: This panel covered the discip- lines, technologies and practices that support the acquisition, processing and transfer of information between humans and systems. These include telecommunications technology, data mining, user interface research, neurosciences and linguistics. The panel believes that the convergence between information technology and communication may in the next few years lead to the emergence of completely new kinds of actors.8 Understanding and Human Interaction: The panel adopted an inter-disciplinary perspective on the question of “What is good for Finland?” It .emphasised the importance of human interaction both between individualsand in social and economic activity as well as the importance of multicul-tural competence in an increasingly international environment. Rather thanseeking out contrasts and differences, such as those between technologyand the human sciences, the panel’s main concern was to identify syner-gies and in this way to promote mutual understanding. 9 Materials: The panel explored various areas of competence on the use of and potential new applications for existing materials as well as avenues for the development and use of completely new materials and technologies with special consideration to international competition and ecologically sustainable raw material economy.10 Global economy: Finland and its research and innovation systemare more and more closely interconnected to the global economy, whichcrucially influences the needs and opportunities for development in busi-ness and industry and the various functions of society. The panel placedparticular emphasis on the development of new service business con-cepts, management of global risks, as well as the more effective use ofglobal knowledge in the economy, science and technology.
  • 5. ContentForeword ..................................... 2Introduction ................................. 4Driving forces .............................. 6Results of panels 1 Learning and Learning Society ............................... 12 2 Services and Service Innovations ........................ 16 3 Well-being and Health........ 20 4 Environment and Energy ... 24 5 Infrastructure and Security... 28 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society ......................... 32 7 Information and Communications................ 36 8 Understanding and Human Interaction .............. 40 9 Materials ............................ 4410 Global Economy ................. 48Interfaces and synergies ........... 52 I On human terms ............... 54 II Enablers – core competences and new practices ............................. 57 III Challengers – global development ...................... 61Members of panels ................... 66
  • 6. Foreword The only way to reach the top is by joining forces The development and strength- ening of competences and innova- tions are the key to Finland’s suc- cess in the future. Cutting-edge basic and applied research cou- pled with broad-ranging expertise and competence will help to reach international excellence. Finland needs a national develop- ment strategy, a vision and com- mitment to pursue these policies as well as an understanding of the challenges that lie ahead for business and industry and society as a whole and the means with which to promote our welfare. At the beginning of 2005 the Academy of Finland, an expert organisation in basic long-term research funding, joined forces with Tekes, the Finnish Funding2_FinnSight 2015
  • 7. Agency for Technology and Innova- own field, a broad understanding of society in general and a willingnesstion, to launch a foresight project to share their expertise. The discussions were constructive and the mem-under the heading of FinnSight bers totally committed themselves to the task. The work to identify trends2015. Its aim has been to identify and focus areas of competence continued from autumn 2005 to springfocus areas of competence for 2006. Each of the ten panels produced their own extensive reports, whichthe future in the fields of science, are compiled in Finnish in a separate FinnSight 2015 publication. This publi-technology, society and business cation summarises the main contents of the panel reports.and industry, and to establish prior- Project planning and implementation was the responsibility of a coreities among them. The project group chaired by Professor Ahti Salo from the HUT Systems Analysiswas instrumental in helping to Laboratory. Its other members were Paavo Löppönen, Director; Annamaijadefine Finland’s Strategic Centres Lehvo, Senior Science Advisor; and Anu Nuutinen, Science Advisor, allof Excellence in Science, Techno- from the Academy of Finland; and Pirjo Kyläkoski, Foresight Manager andlogy and Innovation in line with Eija Ahola, Research Manager from Tekes. The core group’s secretariesthe Government’s decision-in-prin- were Hanna Räisänen from the Academy and Sanna Ojanen from Tekes Sup-ciple of 7 April 2005 on the devel- port for the panel’s work was provided by researchers Tommi Gustafsson,opment of the public research Totti Könnölä and Ville Brummer from the HUT Systems Analysis Labora-system. Not only did the project tory and by Johanna Korhonen and Elina Ranta (summary report) of thefurther the achievement of this online newspaper Verkkotie. The summary report was compiled and editedgoal, but it also deepened the col- by Eija Ahola, Pirjo Kyläkoski, Annamaja Lehvo and Paavo Löppönen.laboration between the Academy Special thanks are due to several people who helped make theof Finland and Tekes and fostered FinnSight 2015 project possible: to Professor Aatto Prihti and Pekka Ylä-a climate of multidisciplinary de- Anttila, Research Director at the Research Institute of the Finnish Econo-bate and discussion. my ETLA for their background support; to the panel chairs who did an ex- The foresighting work was cellent job in reporting the views of their respective panels; to Johannadone in panels where leading re- Korhonen who assisted them in this task; to the project’s core group assearch and industry experts contrib- a whole; to Professor Salo for his constructive leadership of the project;uted their multidisciplinary knowl- and to the staff of his laboratory.edge and insights on the subjects Thanks also to the project steering group, which consisted of Acad-concerned. In addition, the 120 emy President Raimo Väyrynen and Veli-Pekka Saarnivaara, Director Gen-experts who were involved in the eral of Tekes; Anneli Pauli, Vice President, Research (Academy of Finland)ten panels also communicated and Martti af Heurlin, Deputy Director General (Tekes); Professor Artothe knowledge of their respective Mustajoki (University of Helsinki); and Pirjo Kyläkoski, Foresight Managernetworks. (Tekes). The FinnSight 2015 projectwas an intense undertaking. Thechairs and members of the ten Helsinki September 2006panels were jointly selected bythe Academy and Tekes. They Raimo Väyrynen Veli-Pekka Saarnivaarawere expected to have strong Academy of Finland Tekesexpertise in all aspects of their FinnSight 2015_3
  • 8. Introduction Since the 1990s, Finland has advanced to an increasingly innovation- driven stage of development. As the rate of fixed investment declined in the wake of recession, so private and public investment in research, technology and innovation began sharply to climb. That investment is crucial to economic growth. The challenge for the future is to develop new independent science, technology and innovation policy solutions. Such is the speed of change that we now have to structurally assess our research and innovation sys- tems. Networking, new relations of cooperation and multi- and interdisci- plinarity are set to become increasingly important success factors. The impacts and effectiveness of research and innovation systems in society will also assume increasing prominence. In advanced countries the science and technology policy response to was in need of structural renewal. these challenges is to step up foresighting efforts. Foresighting has devel- Another factor working in the oped out of the cooperation between surveys of the future (and especially same direction is the increasingly drivers), strategic planning and policy analysis. The target is to identify global view taken by companies changes and challenges in the research and innovation environment and on the location not only for pro- to assess how to best respond to these changes. duction but also for research and Foresighting provides a structured platform for open and insightful dis- development functions. cussion about the future among as large a number of people as possible. A question that has received It can help to detect weak signals, opportunities and threats, to build up increasing attention in the political a common understanding of what really is important and to identify issues process is whether the invest- and measures on which decision-makers should concentrate their attention. ments made in knowledge and competence actually generate FinnSight 2015 – starting-points and targets enough economic growth, new The results of international foresights have only limited applicability in the job opportunities and welfare in national solutions adopted in Finland, but much can be learned from the Finland. At the same time, ques- methods used in foresighting. Among the countries that had conducted tions are raised about the prioriti- foresight projects before FinnSight 2015 were Japan, the UK, Germany, sation of future development France and Sweden. Furthermore, several research institutes in the Unit- efforts and funding decisions. ed States produce an abundance of future-oriented analyses on different The Government’s decision- disciplines and technologies. in-principle regarding the structur- Finland has worked consistently over a long period of time to build up al development of the country’s an advanced research and innovation system whose main strengths in- research system served as a mo- clude close cooperation and networking at all levels. In international com- tivating factor for the decision by parisons of competitiveness Finland has always performed exceptionally the Academy of Finland and Tekes well in functions related to competence. Examples include the country’s to conduct a broad and compre- highly qualified workforce, public and private investment in research and hensive foresight exercise on innovations, world-class researcher intensity and the level of technology Finnish science and technology. development and utilisation. Key objectives of this exercise At the time that the initial ideas for the FinnSight 2015 project were are a) to identify and explore the floated in 2004, it was already obvious that Finland’s public research system drivers that are expected to im-4_FinnSight 2015
  • 9. pact Finnish business and indus-try and society at large; b) to iden-tify the challenges faced by re-search and innovation activities;and c) to identify the areas ofresearch and innovation compe-tence that promote welfare in soci-ety as well as business and indus-try competitiveness. The results ofthe foresight project support theAcademy’s strategic work andneeds to strengthen basic re-search and Tekes’ strategic focusarea planning. Furthermore, theaim is to deepen cooperationbetween the Academy and Tekesand in general to develop Finnishforesighting work.Theme selectionThe themes for FinnSight 2015were selected with the supportof expert groups that are mostdirectly relevant and important tothe Academy’s and Tekes’ opera-tions. The overarching idea was topromote of interaction: to encour-age the free flow of ideas andexpertise in the foresight process. Among the dozens of themesput forward by the Academy andTekes, those were eventually in-cluded that met the relevant cri-teria of national significance, leveland extent of competence as wellas potential socio-economic im-pacts. Half of the panelists wereappointed from among candi-dates submitted by the Academyand half among those submittedby Tekes. A full list of the panel-ists is attached as an appendix. FinnSight 2015_5
  • 10. Driving forces way to a new international, inves- tor-driven monetary system. In old industrial countries traditional manufacturing accounts for an ever smaller proportion of econom- ic production and employment, at the same time as the role of the service sector is expanding. With the breakdown of econom- ic and communications bounda- ries around the world, nations states and regions are having to rethink their roles. Strong econom- ic growth in Asia is driving old in- dustrial countries into competition where the key success factors are innovativeness and cost efficiency. The Far East, China and India all have strong emerging econ- omies and science and technolo- gy. India in particular is now rapid- • Globalisation ly moving into areas where ad- • Demographic changes vanced industrial countries used • Science and technology to have a competitive advantage, • Sustainable development such as high technology. Closer to home, strong economic growth is • Changes in knowledge and competence expected in the new EU mem- • Changes in work and people’s mental resources bers and Russia. • Changes in the cultural environment In more and more sectors, busi- • Governance and safety and security nesses are no longer competing only locally but also in a global mar- ketplace. The growing demands for Globalisation is redistributing roles efficiency that follow with competi- There are two prominent driving forces in today’s global operating en- tion are in turn leading to a global- vironment. The first is the trend of increasing mobility: the flow of goods, isation of work and increasing money, capital, people, ideas, cultures and values across national bounda- pressures to lower costs. ries is continuing to expand. The second is the growing interdependence Finland is one of these ad- of different parts of the world, their increasing interaction and cooperation vanced economies that is losing in the economy, production, social development, communications and industrial job opportunities. With human exchange. the continuing development of Globalisation today is very much capital driven. Indeed, it has been emerging economies in science suggested that national industrial economies are collapsing and giving and technology, production and6_FinnSight 2015
  • 11. the focus of growth in maturesectors are shifting outside of Eur-ope and the United States. Thesechanges have a major impact on Changes inemployment in Finland and on the knowledge and Sustainablecountry’s technological and eco- competence developmentnomic competitiveness. Market success, in the future, Globalisationcan no longer be achieved simply Demographic changesby means of technological innov- Changes in work Science and Changes ination, but it will require more in- and people’s technology the culturaldepth knowledge of consumers’ mental resources environmentwishes and choices and an abilityto differentiate from other productsand services. Globalisation is not Governance and safety and securityonly an economic process, but it isalso impacting social developmentas well as people’s everyday life.As far as the individual citizen isconcerned, globalisation means an World and Finnish population of working ageincreased freedom of choice bothin education, in the labour marketand in consumption. At the sametime, the daily life of individuals isincreasingly permeated by growingcomplexity, the increasing vulner- World,ability of business and the econo- billion peoplemy, instability in the work environ- Finland, million peoplement and growing cultural tensionsbetween people. Sources: UN (world forecast) Statistics Finland (Finnish forecast)Changes in the populationstructure are shaping theeconomyAccording to United Nations esti- rise very rapidly in the 2010s. These countries will need more staff in themates the world population will service sector as well as in jobs requiring high levels of education.grow from its current figure of In Finland, people of working age now take greater responsibility thanaround 6.5 billion to over 8 billion before for the welfare of children, older people and others who are not inby 2030. In almost all advanced active employment, and the dependency ratio is rising more sharply thancountries, including Finland, popu- in most other European countries.lation growth is slow, and the pro- Population ageing is significantly changing the structure of consump-portion of older people is set to tion. In particular, the demand for health and care services is soaring. FinnSight 2015_7
  • 12. Sustainable development: a safe option for the longer term The requirement of sustainable development will have an ever greater impact on our future choic- es. As well as being ecologically sustainable, our decisions and solu- tions have to be economically vi- able, socially just and culturally valu- able. Living environments can be improved by changing established ways of doing things. Investment in competence on sustainable de- velopment is a safe option in the Information is everywhere longer term, but it is not clear how The development of science and technology is opening up new opportun- and by what means such develop- ities for innovation, which are reflected among other things in working ment can be achieved, and those practices, business processes, systemic structures and social behaviour. means are certainly not always Digital information and networks are paving the way to ubiquitous profitable in the short term. networking. Government functions and services are increasingly moving Climate change and the loss to web-based networks, which means they are accessible to all people at of biodiversity are global pro- all times and in all places. Information itself is increasingly ubiquitous. cesses that are causing increased There is increasing convergence of telecommunications networks and susceptibility to crisis. The world’s computers. Data, sound and images are now being transmitted over the ecosystems are in a state of ac- same networks. Mobile technologies are more and more widely used for celerating change as a direct re- both content production and reception and impacting the way that work sult of human activity, but we is organised. continue to know too little about Technological convergence also enables completely new ways in those changes. The world water which people can link up to networks both technologically, professionally problem is getting progressively and socially. This complex web of networks offers greater scope for a worse. The lack of clean drinking new kind of creativity. water and waste management Based on the principles of openness and sharing, the open source problems call for urgent solutions concept is continuing to gain in popularity. For those who have the know- in many parts of the world. ledge and the willingness, it offers great new opportunities for connecting The changes that are going on things in new innovative ways. in people’s living environments In the future people will be living and interacting more and more close- are also having an impact on their ly with machines, which will have the effect of changing people them- health, well-being and quality of selves. The frequency of interaction will increase, but at the same time life. Industrial products include it will become more superficial. The need for human interaction will in- ever-new chemical compounds crease, as will the need for human relations that support human matura- that have both positive and ad- tion and that provide for a sense of security. verse effects on the environment8_FinnSight 2015
  • 13. and individuals. There is also grow- to success in this competition. Small advanced countries such as Finlanding concern about the potential have to show ever more judgement in selecting the fields where theyadverse effects of these com- want to try and reach the international excellence in research, technologypounds on a nanoscale. and innovations. These countries also have to network globally and devel- Multinational corporations will op new ways of exploiting global knowledge and competence.take on an increasingly prominent With this trend in development, the requirement is no longer simplyrole, and it is absolutely crucial that for scientific and technological competence in innovation, but regulatorythey display a responsible attitude. and cultural competencies are also needed. In the future, growing needGlobal and local environmental will be investment in developing competencies that creatively integrateissues must be managed simultan- basic scientific and technological know-how with business, cultural, legaleously. International environmental and societal competencies.agreements are gaining increasing The market for competent workforce is becoming increasingly glo-weight. The option is now available balised. Efforts must therefore be stepped up to make working and livingto impose trade restrictions on environments in one’s own country more attractive to people coming inenvironmental grounds. from the outside. At the same time, the doors must be opened to allow In energy production, therewill be an increasing drive to findmore sustainable solutions. The Science and technology variables in Finlandeconomic competitiveness of nu- Gross foreign direct investment, % of GDPclear power will increase vis-à-vis Private sector expenditure on R&D Science and engineering enrolment ratio, % of tertiary level studentsfossil fuels, but in many countries High tech exports, % of manuf. exports Researchers in R&Dthis it a major political issue. State of cluster development Researchers in R&D/million Prices of depleting natural Patent applications granted byresources such as oil, natural gas the USPTO/mil population Total expenditure for R&D, % of GDPand uranium will increase. The Patent applications University-company research collaboration granted by the USPTOscarcity of energy is placing in- Scientific and technical journal Availability of venture capital articles/mil. populationcreased pressure on energy pro- Admin. burden for start-upsduction and transportation sys-tems. Efforts shall be continued Source: World Bank Knowledge Assessment Methodology, 2005to increase the environmental effi- Science and technology variables in G7 countriesciency of industrial processes and Gross foreign direct investment, % of GDPto reduce their emission levels. Private sector expenditure on R&D Science and engineering enrolment ratio,Material reuse and recycling and High tech exports, % of tertiary level students Researchers in R&Dthe improved long-term usability of % of manuf. exportsmaterials will gain in significance. State of cluster development Researchers in R&D/million Patent applications granted by Total expenditure for R&D, % of GDPA competent workforce is the USPTO/mil population Patent applications University-company research collaborationa crucial success factor granted by the USPTO Scientific and technical journalCompetition for locations is a key Availability of venture capital articles/mil. populationfactor in global competition: cost Admin. burden for start-upslevels and the availability of a Source: World Bank Knowledge Assessment Methodology, 2005competent workforce are crucial FinnSight 2015_9
  • 14. novation concept will continue to grow and expand with the rapid changes in earning models. The constant changes in needs are also increasing job insecurity and short-term job contracts. Increasing ubiquity is making the distinction between work and leisure increasingly blurred. Lei- sure time is increasing, but it is more unequally divided. The key workforce groups are ever more pressed for time and also have increasing purchasing power. These creative experts are critically important to our future, but more generally Finland needs to have competent people in its people to move out in search of the best education, science and technol- workforce as well as skilled craft- ogy in their own field, wherever it is in the world. speople. Organisations and their management and leadership are becoming Care professionals and service increasingly complex. People involved in network organisations are pre- providers are one of the biggest sented with growing competence challenges, most significantly with groups of experts. Where knowl- respect to the development of diversity as well as interaction, communi- edge workers operate globally, cations and social skills. People will have to adjust to changes in their job services are needed locally. For tasks at some stage of their life span, highlighting the importance and instance, tailored and flexible necessity of life-long learning. home and child care services are People who are working full-time in production in advanced countries needed. The shortage of staff in will be spending more time than before in training and education. Patterns care services is worsening. of alternation between work, study and leisure during the individual’s life Continuous changes driven by span will also be changing. Learning will increasingly take place outside multiple simultaneous factors can formal educational institutions. This means that greater attention needs to severely challenge the adaptability be paid to the development of learning environments and to ironing out of both adults and children. Re- emerging learning differences. sources need to be invested into strengthening mental well-being Open source concept set to expand and health so that the growth of Work is becoming increasingly independent of time and location. Organi- marginalisation and alienation can sations working towards the same goals may be scattered around the be prevented. Amidst all the chang- globe, managed and administered via ICT networks. es it is important to recognize the The role of motivation and incentives is set to increase even further, need for constancy in all age groups as is the importance of a motivating and inspiring climate at work. More and to make sure that the things partnerships and cooperation means more communication. This open in- people value most remain intact.10_FinnSight 2015
  • 15. Equality in cultural Young people in particular are keen to seek ever more intense experi-encounters ences and to get them faster and more easily than before. One of the placesWith the advance of globalisation, they turn to in search of these experiences is the virtual world. Travelling willdifferent sets of values are coming assume ever greater significance as a source of adventure and experiences.into contact with one another more For reasons of Finland’s international attractiveness and competitive-and more often. The reactions of ness it is important that there is a sufficient range of cultural and adven-individuals and societies range ture services in the country. The promotion of Finnish culture also hasfrom the denial and suppression intrinsic value in this multicultural world.of diversity through approval andrespect to active efforts to promote Managing changescross-cultural interaction. Global dependence was earlier understood primarily in ecological or mili- As the need for competent tary security terms. Today, it is understood first and foremost from thepeople continues to increase with point of view of capital and investment markets, production networks andpopulation ageing, positive multi- information flows.culturalism combined with the The problems of governance and the development of new methods ofwelfare state is definitely a com- governance have changed, even though the traditional structures of econom-petitive asset. ic and military power continue to exert an underlying influence. Many of the As more and more jobs today new challenges and means of governance are related to the deepening ofare independent of time and loca- cooperation between governments and businesses and industries in whichtion and communications tech- the goal is to strengthen national competitiveness in the global competition.nology means people are readily On the other hand, governments and NGOs, which often operatereachable, the boundary between internationally or even globally, can work together to search for new solu-work and leisure is shifting. By tions to human rights problems and environmental issues, for example.2015, most people in industrial More and more often now, the globalisation of innovation and produc-countries will have access to wire- tion requires joint solutions to issue and technology-specific governanceless multilingual multimedia via issues. These may be in the form of agreements on standards, regulationvarious kinds of terminals. This and common rules. The significance of competencies in this area will con-will significantly change the way tinue to increase.that work and everyday life are States continue to remain important actors, but they now have to workorganised. more closely with other, domestic and more often international actors in seeking to safeguard national interests. There are many weak and strong signals which indicate that the role of nation-states in their traditional func- tions is increasing again. A growing proportion of the wealth in the United States, Russia, China and other countries is being spent on military security. Economic protectionism is gaining ground even in the world’s leading economies. The battle for natural resources and energy in particular is intensifying, and more and more often the adversaries in this battle are national governments and global corporations. Competencies related to governance and the assessment of systemic risks are set to gain increasing importance. These risks may have to do with international systems, finance, information and energy systems or ecological systems. FinnSight 2015_11
  • 16. Continuous learning is crucial Focus areas of competence: • the neurological, cognitive, motivational and social basis of learning • human technologies that support learning • technology-based working and operating environments, management of mobile and distributed work • practices of life-long learning, the education system and informal learning • civic skills and competencies, life control and social innovations In today’s global and technological world, learning has become in- creasingly important to all people and all communities; it is the best way to cope and manage in a competitive and ever-changing environment. The development of learning is no longer the exclusive domain of education profession- als, but a whole host of experts from different fields are needed to organise as well as to support, produce and supervise learning. The responsibility is widely diffused in society. So great is the need for learning that the only way it can be met is by means of collaborative learning and by tak- ing advantage of the experiences of as many people as possible. Key challenges for the global in- formation society are to gain an understanding of virtual and ac- tual knowledge creation process- es, to steer and manage those processes and to integrate them with other activities.12_FinnSight 2015
  • 17. 1 Learning and Learning SocietyThe increase in knowledgework heightens the globalcompetition for skills andcompetenciesThe world of work is in constantflux. For reasons of cost efficiency,there is a growing tendency to re-locate manufacturing in cheaperlabour countries. Increasingly, jobsthat remain in Finland are highlyknowledge-intensive, requiring highlevels of skills and competencies. The markets for skills andcompetencies are global. Exper-tise can be exported anywherein the world, wherever it is in de-mand. On the other hand, expertscan be recruited from any corner their managers may be based only on virtual contacts.of the world. Increasing numbers In short-term assignments and in mobile work it is difficult to updateof knowledge workers today work and upgrade one’s competence. This would, however, be crucial to thein short-term assignments where future employability of knowledge workers. On the other hand, it is diffi-their individual skills and expertise cult for managers of distributed organisations to support continuousare needed as part of a broader learning of individual employees and to emphasize shared learning ofproject. This has promoted mobile all employees of a team or an organisation. There is a growing need forwork and distributed organisa- flexible structures and practices of lifelong learning. Learning at work andtions. Managing distributed work new web-based social software also have an increasingly important roleis a major challenge. The commu- in competence development.nication between employees and The requirements of speed and possibilities of virtual work have empha- sised the emergence of new business models, such as open source. In- stead of strictly protecting a development work up to the launch of a prod- uct or service, the idea or project is openly discussed and collectively de- veloped from an early stage in Internet. Based on open source, anyone can contribute an idea or provide improvements in the project in order to benefit the total development. The development resources can thus be multiplied. Open source could well open up new opportunities in Finnish research and development, which continues to struggle with scarce resources – provided that these kinds of processes are properly managed and that the results can be rapidly translated into new business applications. More learning outside the domain of formal education Information technology and information networks have made learning and knowledge independent of the constraints of time and place. Information FinnSight 2015_13
  • 18. longer be guaranteed simply by a uniform system of comprehen- sive education. To some extent equality can be enhanced by de- veloping living environments that support the universality of learn- ing in all different age groups. Learning technology to support learning of different kinds of people Technology can also provide vari- ous kinds of support for learning. It can be used to support learning in different age groups, including is created and distributed globally online via social software. Wikis, blogs older people, as well as in people and RSS services with aggregators are facilitating online learning in net- with learning difficulties. Much of works and various kinds of communities. Many young people in the IT the technology development ef- sector now consider this social software and sharing technologies as the fort so far has been driven by most important way of learning. technology itself, the thinking be- Extra-institutional learning should be integrated with formal education ing that people need to be taught at all levels so that people are not divided into two separate worlds of how to use that technology. education. On the other hand, given the growing requirements of efficiency Given the country’s high level in learning, the world of formal education also needs to adopt new modes of technological expertise, Finland of learning. is well placed to develop learning Children spend most of their time outside the school. Whether or technologies that support users not they learn during that time depends upon the environment, parents’ at different levels. This highlights resources, and the information links available. Educational equality can no the importance of a close collabo- rative effort in which technology joins forces with cognitive sci- Multidisciplinary learning, multidisciplinary research ence and artificial intelligence Living/Learning environment with a view to creating a learning - Community Organisational - Culture technology that serves its users. learning - Management - Knowledge creation Target for The key importance of learning Individual processes multidisciplinary learning - Networks and partners learning in society also underscores the research - Biology importance of learning research. - Brain + human mind Whether we are talking about indi- - Psychology Sharing technologies/ vidual, team, community or net- Technology Social software work learning, this is always a - Internet IT tools supporting - Wikis, blogs, etc. multidisciplinary process. Learn- individual learning - Tools supporting the creation and knowledge creation of organisational knowledge ing research should adopt an equally multidisciplinary approach.14_FinnSight 2015
  • 19. 1 Learning and Learning SocietyIn order to understand individual technologies, increasing multiculturalism and the social problems facedlearning we need to explore the by both adults and young people all combine to put learning under muchhuman individual’s very own pro- pressure. Examples of these problems include the increased emotionalcessor, i.e. the brain and the hu- and neurological problems that may be caused by the continuing growthman mind. Furthermore, more in- of information flows and stimuli in the environment, such as attentiondepth knowledge is needed about deficit disorders in young people. Not enough is known as yet about thethe social and cultural processes problems caused by learning disorders in the technological environment.related to learning. With respect to organisational learning, the main focus needs to Complex technologies, the be on knowledge creation theories and the preconditions for a learningethical dilemmas related to these organisation. Technology impacts both individual and community learning by providing tools and support for the creation and distribution of knowl- edge. For individual learning to turn into community learning and collective learning, it is necessary to have an environment where the search and retrieval of new knowledge, learning and the distribution of competencies are consciously steered in the right direction by a manager or “teacher” and where human interaction is supported by culture. The various fields of learning research should be integrated and the experts working in these fields brought together. Apart from natural sciences knowledge and IT and information society competencies, steps are needed to strengthen people’s practical skills as well, such as various manual skills as well as all-round general education in children, young people and adults. Culture and the arts can serve in the role of promoting and supporting learning. FinnSight 2015_15
  • 20. Service sector offers growth potential and new jobs The role of the service sector in Focus areas of competence: the global economy is continuing • the promotion of a customer and consumer approach to grow. At the same time there • business competence in services are mounting pressures within • the development of better housing, service and work this sector to raise productivity, to make better use of technology environments and to develop new service con- • the promotion of service exports cepts and innovations. • data security and information and communications This development is driven technology in services by ongoing changes in the global • culture and adventure services economy: the deregulation of • the renewal of public services service markets, business inter- nationalisation, population ageing, technology and growing demand in the wake of rising income lev- els as well as the development of a service culture. In Finland it is estimated that by 2015, production in the service sector will increase by one-third and the number of jobs by one- fifth. This would mean 300,000 new jobs. Services may be facing a serious shortage of labour. Technological development and productivity growth have been slower in the labour-inten- sive service sector than in manu- facturing. Productivity can be in- creased in various different ways, including the reorganisation of labour and management and the development of business compe- tence. This means the ability to create new products, new brands and service concepts and duplic- able, automated and electronic services. Key to the application of tech- nology is not only strong research and development, but also the ability of the service sector to16_FinnSight 2015
  • 21. 2 Services and Service Innovationsimport and adopt technologiesand business models developedelsewhere. The application ofthese technologies and models inthe service sector is crucial to thefuture success of Finnish serviceproduction.Customer needs andconsumer approach ininnovation developmentA customer and consumer ap-proach is important in all services.No service business can be suc-cessful unless it takes into ac-count the consumer’s needs ing the reorganisation of such aspects of people’s everyday life as timeand desires. Customer-driven use, spending, production, consumption, and leisure, and particularly theapproaches can be developed dynamics between these different aspects.systematically. This is important In the service sector – and today the same applies of course to indus-in all fields, not just in the service try, for instance – the concept of innovation needs to be defined in broad-sector, where it is a condition for er terms so that it also takes in social innovations, such as new strategiessurvival. of action, new practices and the development of practices into routines. Customer and consumer- Service innovations are developed as, or evolve as, user innovationsdriven approaches represent a and practice innovations. Another concept that relates closely to the intro-key area of competence that ties duction and diffusion of innovations is that of social learning or with many different disciplines The emergence of new routines requires both new producers andand technologies, including mar- new consumers (e.g. the new popular pastime of Nordic walking), and onketing, business management, the other hand, a conscious effort to improve material and mental rawbusiness psychology, information materials and places as well as to develop competencies. As far as theand communications technology reproduction of service practices is concerned, consumers and producersand design. This is a multidisciplin- are in virtually the same position.ary area of expertise that inte- An understanding of consumers’ everyday life, their desires and thegrates several social and behav- dynamics between time, money, consumption and production, also pavesioural sciences as well as disci- the way to ideas that differ from the mainstream. Even quite mundaneplines that are concerned with practices and dreams may provide new, unexpected targets for develop-human action, including neuro- ment.sciences. Examples of the broad markets for service innovations are offered The service sector needs to by household services, the impacts of immigration and regional develop-have a deeper understanding of ment on the demand for services, and particularly projects for the reformthe mechanisms that lie behind of public health care services.consumers’ choices. This can be The customer-oriented and service-minded approach also impact theachieved by exploring and analys- strategies, value chains and business models applied in traditional industry. FinnSight 2015_17
  • 22. The development of business competence offers various prac- tical applications. These include the broader use of ICTs in service businesses, the development of service marketing, as well as brand creation and brand manage- ment. In services, business com- petence should pay closer atten- tion to customers’ needs. At the same time, it should also work to generate value-added service Service exports set to become a strength area products. The development of business competence is recognized as an area of Finland is well placed to be- key importance in several different sectors in Finland. The service sector come a major exporter of technol- is no exception. Business competence can be understood as comprising ogy services. For reasons of in- not only the development of new business models, but also the adoption dustrial competitiveness it is ex- and application of models that have been developed and proven else- tremely important that the export where. of technology services becomes This has to do with marketing, business management, production a growth sector. In public ser- economics, economic sociology, information technology and logistics. vices, too, there are probably New services are created in all these sectors, with far-reaching benefits many functions and activities that for Finnish business and industry. There are thus two dimensions to busi- can be rationalised with the use ness competence in the service sector: on the one hand it is a prerequis- of information technology. Admin- ite for the development of profitable, innovative service business, and istrative back office functions are on the other hand this competence provides a platform for service busi- a case in point. nesses. Areas of particular strength for Finnish exports might include so- cial services, international general purpose services as well as envi- Employment by main industry in Finland ronmental services and technol- ogy. Services related to informa- Public services tion security technology and information and communication Private services systems might also provide new Building and construction export opportunities for Finland. Culture and adventure services Manufacturing are a growing field where technol- ogy and business competence Primary production have great importance.18_FinnSight 2015
  • 23. 2 Services and Service InnovationsService productionrequires a sound operatingenvironmentThe development of better envi-ronments is a focus area thatrequires the contribution and in-put of architecture, urban andcommunity planning and logistics.However, a number of other fieldsare also closely involved; theseinclude design, consumer psy-chology, sociology, marketing andconsumer research, culture andart history and environmental aes-thetics. Technologies that cancontribute include the technologyof design, environmental technol-ogy as well as housing and livingenvironment technologies. Better environments are oneway of responding to changingneeds and demands and strength-ening the competitiveness and ap-peal of Finland. There is a very clearneed now to enhance people’s im-material well-being, to create moreaesthetic and pleasing environ-ments, to improve living and workenvironments. These changes arealready visible in consumer behav-iour, and there is reason to believethat they will gather further mo-mentum in the future if incomelevels continue to rise as expected. Finland has every opportunity well-tended everyday environments and related environmental servicesto become a competitive model as well as solutions based on modern environmental for good housing and It is important that the solutions adopted are in line with the close-to-good living environments where nature lifestyle that people in Finland have chosen for themselves. Theall people, regardless of where notion of a quiet, clean and safe Finland or Helsinki will certainly farethey live, have access to pleasant, better than any attempt to turn this into a “swinging metropolis” . FinnSight 2015_19
  • 24. The reform of health care system Public health in Finland has con- Focus areas of competence: tinuously improved. Life expect- • biomedical research ancy has increased, and at the • brain and neuro research same time functional limitations • the development of ICTs that promote public health and disabilities due to diseases have continued to decrease. Self- • physical exercise and nutrition research perceived health has improved • mental health and substance abuse research most particularly in middle-aged • home care and telecare technologies groups. It is expected that these • pharmaceuticals research same trends will continue over • research supporting the social and health care system the next few years, which can at least in part be attributed to an efficient health care system. However, that system is now in need of reform, for several reasons. The population structure is ageing and changing geographi- cally. The growth of the elderly population is evident in all ad- vanced countries. In Finland the dependency ratio is increasing more sharply than in most other European countries. The situation is even more alarming from the point of view of economic de- pendency. Lifestyle diseases caused by obesity are increasing in all age groups. Alcohol con- sumption is rising and causing more and more alcohol-related health and social problems. Changes in the age structure are also driving up the number of ageing-related diseases, such as osteoporosis, cancer and brain disorders. There is also growing concern about the mental health of children and youths. The reorganisation of care pro- vision can help to make the work of care professionals more mean-20_FinnSight 2015
  • 25. 3 Well-being and Healthingful and more attractive. Thenumber of immigrants movinginto Finland may become a matterof great importance to the futureof the social and health care sys-tem, for it is faced with a seriousshortage of labour. Advances in medicine andICTs as well as the developmentof new health services modelswork as counter trends to thechanges in the population agestructure. These can help pavethe way to the more effectiveprovision of health care servicesfor the population. At the same ICTs to modernise health care servicestime the emphasis is increasingly Health and welfare policy as a whole will need to be completely re-shifting to the prevention of dis- thought in the future. The health care system is headed into a crisis, fac-eases. ing a shortage of labour, funding problems in local government and staff Globalisation has not and will overload problems. There are also problems with the availability of spe-not have the effect of undermin- cialised health care and emergency care arrangements in local Finnish welfare society. In- The structures and mechanisms of the service system can be completelytellectual, social and physical overhauled by means of combined with a system Advances in health technology can help to slow the rise of costs. Newthat has a capacity for change, pharmaceuticals alleviate symptoms and cure and prevent diseases. Ontogether constitute strong com- the other hand, future technologies are more and more often high tech-petitive factors in an integrating nologies or preventive technologies. High technology provides ways ofworld. preventing or curing diseases, but these treatments are very expensive. It is expected that the emphasis in “hard” medicine will shift increasingly from treatment to prevention. Health technology is constantly gaining in significance. Finland has exceptionally strong expertise in this field as well as good opportunities to test innovations in real environments. In the future, there will be ample opportunities for the practical application of that expertise, as long as in- dustry and academia continue to deepen their collaboration. Health technology also produces crucially important home care and telecare services, for which there is growing demand with the continuing ageing of the population and rural depopulation. On the other hand, tele- care systems also raise new kinds of professional and ethical questions. New ICTs are also paving the way to improved customer manage- ment. With each patient’s consent, health care staff can easily access rel- evant patient information – by virtue of wireless terminals even without FinnSight 2015_21
  • 26. Another important way of main- taining health is by means of physi- cal exercise. Sports services should be set up in places where they are most readily accessible. The devel- opment of new sports service con- cepts requires the input of experts who understand the needs and impacts of exercise for health in different target groups. time and location constraints. A national health portal is needed as a The growth of knowledge is source of general information and guidance on the use of services and on revolutionising research and treat- how to apply for benefits. ment. The challenge now is to Various kinds of secure information system services are important not make that knowledge more wide- only for improved health care delivery, but they are also valuable export ly accessible. It is the responsibil- products. Finnish businesses are exceptionally well placed to make use of ity of the authorities to make sure the electronic health record and the national system architecture in their that citizens receive as accurate own product development. evidence-based information as possible. From the treatment of diseases to health promotion In recent years the prevention Advance prevention of problems will assume increasing prominence in fu- of many public health problems ture social and health policy. The main emphasis will shift to life-long health has been delegated from the pub- promotion. From a population point of view the health of children and youths lic health care system to public is crucial because health habits and attitudes are acquired at a young age. health organisations. If there is Very often the choices of individuals, families and communities are a real and serious commitment more important than the service system. New technologies and services to promoting public health in the now give people the chance independently to improve and promote their future, then central and local gov- own well-being. ernment will need to clearly step From a health promotion point of view there are significant development up their investment in this effort. needs in activities aimed at preventing exclusion and marginalisation, the use of addictive and other substances as well as problems in the workplace and in families. The latest research evidence heavily underlines the impor- tance of prenatal and child health clinics to well-being and lends support to strengthening the clinic system, which in recent years has weakened. More research is also needed into the factors that impact the health be- haviour and marginalisation of children and youths. Mental health problems in children and youths are giving cause to growing concern. The numbers retiring on grounds of mental health problems are also increasing. There are several different avenues to health promotion and the pre- vention of diseases. One of the most important of them is diet. It would be important to gain a clearer and fuller picture of the mechanisms in- volved in food, eating, health and well-being.22_FinnSight 2015
  • 27. 3 Well-being and Health However, even knowledge isnot always enough to steer and the field of stem cell research, which in the near future may be bringingshape lifestyle choices, but moti- changes to treatment practices in many disease groups.vation may be required as well. Brain research is also making rapid progress and producing applica-Citizens are more and more clearly tions for the diagnosis and treatment of brain disorders and psychiatricdivided now between those lead- illnesses. Practical applications have emerged most particularly in theing a healthy life and those with field of imaging, which is also continuing to make impressive progress.unhealthy living habits. The promo- In the sector of health and welfare technology there is a clear demandtion of health in the latter groups for cross-disciplinary experts with a strong background in both mathemat-ties in closely with the structural ics, the natural sciences, technology and biosciences. Core professionalmeasures taken by society. competencies will not in themselves guarantee success unless business and marketing specialists are trained at the same time. In Finland, there isResearch in biomedicine certainly a significant need and demand for such specialists.can pave the way to break-throughs in health careThe impacts of research in bio-medicine extend from basic re-search through to the varioushealth care sectors. Genomics andproteomics knowledge is openingup new avenues for the preven-tion, diagnosis and treatment ofboth common and rare diseases.Practical applications are relatedfirst and foremost to the diagnosisand treatment of cancer. The disciplines and technolo-gies related to research in this fieldand to its application are verystrong in Finland, but also scat-tered. Our competitive advantageis based on public health care, anatmosphere that is favourable toresearch, well-studied and well-described population and patientdatasets and strong traditions ofclinical and basic research. Finland should invest in mo-lecular medicine, nanoscienceand nanotechnology and in practi-cal applications in these fields.Finland is also strongly placed in FinnSight 2015_23
  • 28. Environmental management: a new area of strength Focus areas of competence: • the operation of ecosystems • the management of environmen- tal issues in Finland and globally • urban environments • water systems and water cleaning technologies • biomass as an energy source and biomass production technologies • improved energy efficiency or “negawatts” • new energy production systems and their integration • smart sensors and new energy conversion and storage tech- nologies • logistics, distribution • mobile and distributed technolo- gies as a platform for energy and environmental services In order to adapt successfully to environmental changes and to put effec- tive measures of environmental protection into place, we will need to gain a much clearer understanding in the coming years about climate change, the operation and tolerance of ecosystems and the mechanisms of ecosystem interdependence. Environmental management is a demanding business in which the scale of operation often ranges from the local to global. Furthermore, it is dependent on a large number of drivers. Different sectors of society need to be better prepared than they are now to manage uncertainty and to respond flexibly to changing situations. Finland has an extremely high level of ecological expertise and com- petence. It is important to make sure that this expertise and competence is fostered and developed and that it is put to even better practical use. Furthermore, the development of methods of environmental manage- ment will require support for basic research, joint research programmes among different funding bodies as well as ongoing dialogue between the24_FinnSight 2015
  • 29. 4 Environment and Energyresearch community and otherstakeholders. The natural sciences and mar-keting are often dealt with in sep-arate fora, but the developmentof marketing is absolutely integralto the success of environmentaland energy technologies. Invest-ment should be channelled viapilot projects to areas that aremost important to the global mar-kets. In the future, territorial think-ing within individual disciplinesand fields of research is no longerviable in either research or re-search funding.Product development and systems complete with laboratories – could also be packaged for export.commercialisation Growing challenges and new markets are emerging for sustainableFinland has strong expertise in development products, most particularly in two areas of expertise and com-the development and commer- petence: first, in urban environments and water systems, and second, incialisation of methods of environ- water cleaning technologies. European cities already have their own ecodis-mental management. It is also tricts, and China is now working to design and develop whole ecocities.a world leader in the application A competitive advantage in building and construction is gained through aof remote sensing and GPS tech- comprehensive overall view, i.e. through various integrated systems in com-niques in research on the impacts munity planning, energy and waste management, transportation, logistics andof land use and forest fragmenta- safe and good quality environments.tion on biodiversity. There is Much of the world’s populationstrong international demand in lacks access to drinking water andthese areas. decent sanitation. A key in resolv- Advanced geoinformatics pro- ing this problem is the integratedvides a solid foundation for tack- management of water resourcesling many environmental issues. and the development of proper wa-Applications require expertise and ter management systems. Finlandknow-how in such fields as geo- has received international recogni-graphical positioning, modelling, tion for this kind of comprehensiveland use and urban planning, and approach to water management,hydrology – all important areas of but this expertise still needs to bestrength for Finland. The institu- packaged into more marketabletional expertise – legislation, en- products, and incentives must bevironmental impact assessment, provided for collaboration betweenadministration and information different stakeholders. FinnSight 2015_25
  • 30. Energy efficiency – a competitive asset The energy sector is moving increasingly to the use of rapidly renewing raw materials. Given the country’s abundant forest resources, Finland is indeed well placed to utilise biomass as an energy source. In the forest industry Finnish technology is already being used to make efficient use of biofuels. As industrial processes continue to develop, so does the energy surplus from those processes increase – and the surplus biofuel can be converted into electricity or some other fuel. Forest industry by-products can be used in transport fuel production and technology development, an area that could make a significant contri- bution to employment and the national economy. The forest industry can provide the platform for these more advanced biorefinery concepts. Energy efficiency offers huge potential. Finland should work to lever- age this into a marketable feature in the global competition and the indus- try’s profile as a whole. Energy expertise today is local and scattered and characterised by lack of competition. The efficiency of many products and applications can easily be in- creased by one-fifth and even one-half. Energy efficiency should be clearly identified and promoted as a product performance. In the construction of low-rise housing, emissions and energy consumption can be reduced even from the planning stage. Ultimately the aim could be to develop a packaged house that integrates different technologies and that virtually eliminates all energy needs and waste. In renewable energy produc- tion methods, there are several Carbon dioxide emissions from energy production in 1990–2030 promising new areas of develop- CO2 , million tonnes ment that require adequate re- 10,000 search and development invest- 9,000 ment. A number of new sustain- 8,000 able energy production methods 7,000 are currently under development 6,000 and even in use. One of the most 5,000 EU 15 direct routes to the production of EU, new members biofuels is provided by oil plants. 4,000 USA 3,000 The aim is to have plants with as Brazil 2,000 India high a yield by hectare as pos- 1,000 China sible. Botany and plant breeding Japan as well as genetic engineering 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 should be harnessed for the de- Source: European Commission WETO 2003 velopment of biofuel production. There is also growing demand26_FinnSight 2015
  • 31. 4 Environment and Energyworldwide for distributed energy.In the development of smart pow-er products, the most importanttarget group and actors are busi-ness companies. Pilot plants havealready tested small-scale distrib-uted technologies based on fis-sion energy, which might grad-ually pave the way to generatingextra electrical capacity possiblyfrom the late 2010s onwards.New technologies inthe energy sectorGrowing climate threats and thescarcity of raw materials have cre-ated a strong global trend to devel- cations in the 10–20 kilowatt range are attracting considerable interest.op and adopt new environmental Other promising areas include fuel cells as well as solar heat and electric-and energy solutions. All in all, tech- ity, which is one of the fastest growing forms of distributed energy pro-nology development in the field of duction. Solar energy is an export area where there would be strongenergy production should be aimed demand for applications and systems new innovative, commercial so- In present-day industrial installations, all low thermal energy is wasted.lutions that can be exported to As development needs are increasingly dictated by considerations ofmany different kinds of markets energy efficiency and the scarcity of raw materials, one environmentally Nanosciences and nanotech- friendly application might be to capture waste energy from industrialnology will have a significant im- processes and to put it to use in greenhouses. There might well be strongpact on the energy sector in the international demand for Finnish expertise in cogeneration, i.e. CHPyears to come. At its fastest, nano- will improve the effi- Finland is a world leader in mobile technology, which provides a solid plat-ciency of small batteries, although form for technology applications in the energy and environment sector. Mobilemethanol fuel cells are now be- technology is currently searching for useful services, society in turn is lookingginning to appear in laptop com- for tools that support sustainable development – a match made in heaven.puters. Nanotechnology may also In the energy field, mobilepave the way to increased effi- technology could provide a toolciency in automated control. In for creating “virtual electricitythis area the key is to locate companies” for instance, in which ,market niches and to specialise. production is controlled by means It is indeed investments in vari- of adaptive system technology. Inous smaller, distributed energy electricity production, a digitallysolutions that are increasing fast- controlled network could be oneer than investments in major attractive proposition for Finnishpower plants; for example, appli- IT expertise. FinnSight 2015_27
  • 32. Modern society has new vulnerabilities Focus areas of competence: • environmental know-how and technology • logistic know-how and security of supply management • multicultural know-how • integration know-how • methods know-how • Russia know-how The infrastructure of society is a network of broad structures that are crucial to its operation: trans- port routes and systems, tele- communications networks, ener- gy, financing and health care sys- tems as well as various institu- tions and organisations that run these systems. Modern society has become increasingly vulner- able and sensitive to external influences. For the security of citizens it is essential that society’s systems operate flawlessly. Any system failures or malfunctions may com- pletely paralyse society. Infra- structure and security issues are closely linked. Complex inter- actions and joint effects are in- volved, and these have become ever harder to predict. It is in- creasingly important for modern society to manage these kinds of systemic risks. Globalisation is increasing the movement of both people and information and opening up new business opportunities. At the28_FinnSight 2015
  • 33. 5 Infrastructure and Securitysame time, however, it is alsopresenting new potential or realthreats to Finnish national secur-ity and to the country’s infrastruc-ture. Examples include terrorism,human trade, cultural tensionsand health risks such as pandem-ics. The infrastructure today leansmore and more heavily on infor-mation and telecommunicationsnetworks. Finland’s geopoliticallocation, climate, population sizeand various energy and environ-mental resources, for their part,determine the boundary condi-tions for external and internal se-curity as well as the needs forinfrastructure development and protection. Ecological changes as well as changes in the population age structure and in economic structure and ownership all involve important security considerations. Closely related to considerations of security, which refers to the im- pacts of human activities such as wars, crime or terrorism, is the question of safety. Safety, in turn, refers to various mechanisms of protection against accidents or natural catastrophes as well as systems designed to maintain the stability of society. For example, the changing population age structure underlines the need to upgrade and modernise service infrastructures. Finland is currently under no external threat from foreign armed forces. At least to some extent, the collapse of the Soviet Union and Finland’s membership of the European Union have served to strengthen Finland’s security policy position. Globalisation, on the other hand, has thrown up a whole host of po- tential external security threats against which state borders no longer pro- vide any protection. These include environmental threats, the problems of energy supply, international crime and the expansion of terrorism to Finland. FinnSight 2015_29
  • 34. Close economic dependence on the global marketplace may cause ed risks and vulnerability problems. very serious problems in the event of dramatic disruptions to the US This kind of fault diagnostics and economy, for instance, or if as a result of a foreign takeover there were system expertise also offers great a sudden, significant outflow of capital to cheaper cost countries. export potential. Finland’s energy supply and the A sound infrastructure is a strong competition factor operation of society also depend on Fast communications and the global nature of capital, raw materials, knowledge and expertise about the energy and food markets mean that environmental catastrophes, crises country’s neighbouring regions, par- and technological disruptions are immediately reflected in the Finnish ticularly on research into Russia and infrastructure and security situation as well. its economic development. The ex- Steps should be taken to identify and develop key competencies relat- port of infrastructure know-how to ed to infrastructure and security in several focus areas. Ecological disrup- Russia might help to support and tions are among the most significant threats to the safety of the popula- promote the development of this tion. Finland has a high level of environmental expertise and technology sector in Finland as well. It is cru- with which to combat these threats. cially important to secure access to Logistic know-how and security of supply are likewise crucial to main- energy and to reduce dependencies taining internal security and to safeguarding the operation of infrastruc- on progressively less secure energy tures. It is important that the existing ICT competence is used to improve sources and increasingly expensive the security of information and energy networks and to resolve the relat- non-renewable natural resources.30_FinnSight 2015
  • 35. 5 Infrastructure and Security Globalisation deepens andenriches international cultural ex-change, but it has also createdinequality and marginalisation.Migration may incite racism andincrease social tensions as wellas internal insecurity or the senseof insecurity. Multicultural competence andsupport for multiculturalism helpto create stability in society. Thegrowth of multiculturalism re-quires new skills for the manage-ment of diversity, a knowledge offoreign cultures and the ability tosupport and take advantage ofthe existence of minorities anddifference. Finland is well-placed to devel-op different areas of integrationand management expertise, todevelop models of conflict man-agement and resolution and togain a profile as a country thathas the know-how to resolve con-flicts and crises, as an expert indiplomacy. This kind of compe-tence also helps to build nationalsecurity. It is noteworthy that whereasinfrastructures used to be rela-tively stable and any changes hap-pened quite slowly, in the futurechanges in society’s basic struc-ture may be far more rapid anddramatic. Good examples are pro-vided by terrorist attacks in recentyears that have had a profoundimpact on the global security en-vironment, or by the electricalblackouts that struck large partsof the United States in 2003. FinnSight 2015_31
  • 36. Bio-expertise has broad application Finland has made substantial investments in recent years to strengthen Focus areas of its expertise and competence in the biofield. This has helped to create competence: research teams and know-how that enjoy worldwide recognition. In the • the complete use of future, greater effort needs to be made to turn this knowledge and exper- renewable natural tise into practical applications. The principles of sustainable development have an ever greater influ- resources ence in today’s society and industry. The efficient use of renewable nat- • the development of ural resources lays the ground both for modernising traditional industry and bioproduction for strengthening competitiveness in the forest sector and the production • new biotechnological of biofuels, for example. In the future, plant biomass will account for product introductions a significant proportion of the raw materials used in industry. Finland’s • the development of pharmaceuticals • measurement methods and diagnostics • management and modelling of biological knowledge • multidisciplinary synergy and new disciplines strong basic know-how in the use of large volumes of biomass provides a solid platform for the practical application of the new bio-expertise. Finland itself is a small market, but it may well emerge as a significant centre for biotechnology production and development. The high level of research in the country at least provides an excellent foundation. How- ever, the business sector that works to convert this research into com- mercial products remains relatively weak. Biosciences applications will be used more and more widely in different areas of society and technology. It is precisely the integration of different fields of research that will generate significant new business over the next 10–20 years. Existing research and education structures should be developed32_FinnSight 2015
  • 37. 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society have a clearer division of labour between academia and industry. New noteworthy products that have grown up out of the re- search investment include bioma- terials such as biodegradable plas- tics. Important areas of develop- ment for Finland also include the development of new materials or structural components out of nat- ural polymers such as cellulose and starch. Biotechnology applica- tions have uses not only in indus- try, but also in the service sector. Enzyme technology has led to the development of new and more effective detergents. Wide- scale cultivation of transgenic plants is now starting up, the use of biofuels is increasing and new biosciences applications are being introduced in health care. There are also examples ofwith a view to establishing a stronger multidisciplinary foundation, and the profitable bio-business in prod-synergies between different disciplines should be exploited more effectively. ucts that are not based on Fin- New, distinct areas where other disciplines are integrated with bio- land’s earlier strengths. These in-sciences are now emerging in the mathematical modelling of biological clude measurement techniquesknowledge, chemical biology, bionanotechnology, bioenergetics, biophys- and diagnostic methods in theics and other fields. field of molecular biology, which Pharmaceuticals research is one of the fields that is using and developing have seen rapid advances. Thebio-applications. However, it is important to take a broad view on the innov- markets for research reagents areation potential in the health care field rather than consider it in terms of pharma- considerable, and the develop-ceuticals development only. We are well placed to take advantage of Fin- ment of these kinds of researchland’s unique population genetic datasets and studies of hereditary diseases. services and research materials would be ideally suited to Finland.The challenge of bio-business There remain bottlenecks inBiomolecular and biotechnology products are expected to open up signifi- commercialisation. For instance,cant new business opportunities for the future, provided that the invest- there is no significant pharma-ments in new innovations generate sufficient returns. The conversion of ceuticals industry in Finland thatresearch results into commercial products with greater efficiency than is could provide support for com-currently the case will require steps to rearrange or intensify business co- mercialisation or training for ex-operation, to establish closer contacts with international investors and to perts in this field. Far more Finn- FinnSight 2015_33
  • 38. ish venture capital would be need- ed for biotechnology innovations than is currently available; the commercialisation of new pharma- ceuticals in particular requires huge resources, and the results will only make themselves felt more widely after some time lag. One way of attracting foreign venture capital to Finland would be to strengthen the structures of centres of expertise, to take ad- vantage of innovations originating elsewhere and to get internation- ally recognized experts to work for Finnish companies. It is also important that researchers are motivated for a long-term com- mitment and that agreements are in place to make sure that the opens up new opportunities for the software and hardware business. The benefits of commercialisation are management and application of knowledge will be a key competitive fac- equitably shared. tor in biosciences research and related business ventures. For biotechnology innovations Advances in measurement and diagnostic methods provide another to retain their significance particu- example of a transdisciplinary area of application that has seen impres- larly from an employment point of sive development. This area of competence has broad application among view, it is crucial that production others in medicine, industry and environmental research. remains in Finland. That will re- Pharmaceuticals development is an important area for biotechnology quire an ongoing development applications. The development of better and faster diagnostic methods effort in bio-production. may significantly contribute to the treatment and even prevention of dis- eases. With the continuing growth of genomic information, these meth- Management of biological ods will help to provide more accurate predictions of risk of illness, in the knowledge is key same way as blood biomarker analyses, for example. The volume of biological knowl- Research into the population genotype is one of Finland’s most outstand- edge has grown and continues to ing areas of strength. Finnish datasets are comprehensive and highly stand- grow phenomenally. There is vir- ardised. It is expected that population genetic and molecular biology research tually no limit to the number of will pave the way to the development of new tests and new medical drugs. measurement applications. Keep- There is also much expertise in cancer treatment and diagnosis, which ing up with developments in this may prove invaluable in the development of new, specific cancer drugs. field will require the management Similar breakthroughs may also provide useful clues for the targeted treat- of efficient, reliable methods of ment of other diseases, such as brain disorders. Further areas of strength measurement as well as informa- include research into infectious diseases and immunology, which offers tion technologies, which in turn a platform for projects in pharmaceuticals and vaccination development.34_FinnSight 2015
  • 39. 6 Bio-expertise and Bio-society Advanced measurement methods and technologies are used both inbio-processes for purposes of producing chemicals and new materials, forquality control purposes in the food industry and in studies on the stateof the environment. In the future we can expect to see the proliferation ofinexpensive, easy-to-use and portable measurement devices that can beused to relay information wirelessly to a doctor or to the control centre ofan industrial production process. In industry, the new measurement technology is needed for instancein processes of bioenergy production. Biotechnology should be used inorder to diversify the Finnish industrial structure and industrial products.The biorefinery concept will be a significant part of the future bio-society.Raw materials and waste will be processed into as many different basicsubstances as possible, such as sugar, fibres or extracts, which are thenrefined further into biomaterials or chemicals, for instance. Other important bioindustry products include the basic units of a cer-tain line of research: cells. Lactic acid bacteria, for example, are an impor- tant product in the food industry. Finland also has sound expertise and experience in the production of valuable proteins and enzymes. Production organisms and gene technology can pave the way to the more efficient use of raw materials in industry, such as the production of bio-ethanol. The use of cells for productive purposes requires a close under- standing of how they work and function. The manufacture of pro- duction organisms often requires the transfer of external genetic material into the organism, or sig- nificant modifications to its own metabolic routes. Increasingly, this requires the tools of system biology and bioinformatics. FinnSight 2015_35
  • 40. Ubiquitous information and communications set for a breakthrough Focus areas of competence: • communications technology • interaction, usability, user interfaces • sensor technology applications • data mining, analysis, management and retrieval • telecommunications • service development • reforming traditional industry • digital information infrastructures in society • software industry • bioinformation Information and communications technologies are profoundly reshaping technology ways of doing business and other aspects of society. For Finland, which • hardware industry has long been working to build up a strong technological expertise in these fields, these changes will offer significant new business potential. The main challenge is presented by the rapid growth of expertise and competence in emerging economies and by the need to integrate citi- zens’ information society competencies in this process of change. One of the conditions for the success of the ICT sector in global com- petition is that it works to strengthen innovation in those areas and on those levels where it is possible to generate superior added value in a rapidly changing environment. The ongoing change in communications technology involves a whole host of closely linked and mutually supportive drivers in development. Information and communications are becoming ubiquitous. By 2015, virtually all people living in industrial countries will have access to multi- media services based on mobile or other terminals. Services based on ubiquitous telecommunications and information retrieval seem to devel- op very rapidly over the next ten years. The key words are real-time in- formation, multilingualism, location awareness, targeting and personali- sation.36_FinnSight 2015
  • 41. 7 Information and Communications Government functions and services are increasingly moving online. working. In general, it is cruciallyInternet shopping is also increasing. Furthermore, business companies important that the scatteredand public administration are working to develop and introduce more know-how is coordinated andautomated and self-service solutions. brought together so that it can be Media and technologies are rapidly converging, which means that tele- put to more effective use.communications networks and computers will converge as well. Data, Standardisation, the creationsound and images are transmitted over the same networks, and the of ontologies and the semanticsame terminals can be used for the use of different types of contents. integration of information are allThese changes will increase digital contents and demand for those con- part of the broader exercise oftents, which in turn will open up new kinds of global markets. developing knowledge manage- ment. Web-based society needsCloser cooperation between the ICT, forest, to integrate its separate informa-bio and media industries tion systems: a current exampleFinland has world leading expertise in three key industries: information is provided by the challenge ofand communications technologies, the forest sector and the communica- integrating patient informationtions sector. It is of great national importance how these sectors succeed systems in health working together to develop new solutions and new products. In culture and entertainment, There are many new interesting areas of research and technologies at the digitalisation of contents con-the intersections of different fields of expertise, and Finland is well placed tinues apace and by 2015 theto become a pioneering force in the development of these areas. For in- country’s main cultural heritagestance, printed functionality – optics and electronics – can pave the way will also be available in digital for-to various combinations of fibre-based products and electronic media, mat. This effort is very much de-i.e. hybrid media. pendent on public sector funding, These kinds of innovations generate added value to consumer ser- copyright issues and advances invices, information retrieval, electronic trading, education, marketing as display technologies.well as entertainment and leisure services. Hybrid media is a multidisci- Finland has strong expertise inplinary field that requires not only technological know-how, but also telecommunications and the po-research into end-users’ communications needs and behaviour. tential to become a pioneer in the One potential area of convergence of heterogeneous development and even networks at the gigabyte level. exports is ICT-based learn- A seamless telecommunications ing tools. There seems to system composed of different be a lack of national will at networks and technologies pro- the moment in the field of vides a sound platform for the learning technology. Other development of new services and interesting areas of devel- contents. opment include the use of digital television and mo- Putting digital data bile television in learning, resources to better use as well as on-demand Individual citizens and businesses learning, such as services both have a great interest in ac- related to learning while cessing and further processing FinnSight 2015_37
  • 42. the potential for industry to develop services and generate added value out of different materials. It is equally important to make sure that private citizens have access to sources of information. This will probably require test environments that could be funded through various kinds of pro- grammes. The digitalisation of contents and services in information society will also require new service concepts and new business models. New Finn- ish-developed electronic service concepts have definite export potential. Indeed, it has been suggested that electronic services are emerging as a “second Nokia” However, questions of copyright present a major chal- . lenge that will require global solutions. One particularly significant area is the intensification of traditional service production by means of information and communications technol- ogies. As yet this has received only limited research attention. More accu- the digital data resources that rate instruments are needed for measuring the true impacts of ICT intro- have been collectively compiled. duction on productivity. This will require the development of test plat- This sharing of resources pro- forms such as the living lab as well as involving staff and customers in vides a sound basis for the devel- the development of IT-aided services. opment of a national information society, international cooperation Digital media: a new growth area and the emergence of new ser- Programming and software have a key role to play in the development of vices. It also contributes to better information technology. Increasingly, the operation of society is controlled decision-making. by means of computer software. Society, therefore, is increasingly de- The free movement of infor- pendent on software that works. mation requires the development of digital information infrastruc- tures. Among the fields integrat- ed with ICTs in this area of com- petence are remote sensing and positioning as well as cultural sciences and the media sector. Mobile devices are an impor- tant part of digital information in- frastructures because they are used to create services for such purposes as navigation as well as guidance and assistance. In gen- eral, investment in GPS expertise should be considerably stepped up. In the development of the in- formation infrastructure, special consideration should be given to38_FinnSight 2015
  • 43. 7 Information and Communications The size and complexity of software have grown hand in hand, and the The growth of digital entertain-same trend will continue in the future. There are question marks about the ment and the electronic exchangereliability even of existing applications, and it is very difficult and expensive of music and film files are increas-to try and improve them. Unless methods can be improved, the problems ing the capacity requirements ofwith software technology may become a bottleneck in IT development. the communications network and Software is worldwide being outsourced to lower cost countries. This memory chips. The network struc-may lead also the Finnish software industry to lose one of its most signifi- ture will change significantly withcant competitive assets: its hold over software development. If this trend the proliferation of affordable giga-continues, research and the workforce in this sector will begin to dwindle. byte connections. Research needs The role of open source code, on the other hand, may well increase in to respond to these challengesthe future. It enjoys very strong support among researchers and program- that concern both hardware manu-mers in the field. It is possible that we will see a divergence in software facturers and operators.between publicly funded program development based on open source However, the need for invest-code and closed software development in business companies. ment in the semiconductor indus- The digital media markets have continued and will continue to expand try is growing faster than the ex-around the world. The market will become even more consumer-driven. pected revenue. This may evenMedia uses will continue to diversify. The adventure and experience in- have the effect of slowing downdustry will open up new business opportunities both for technology and the development of the ICT sec-content production. The competencies of the experts in this field need to tor. With the ever shorter life-cyclebe integrated. A key characteristic of the Internet era is that software is of semiconductor technologybecoming more service than product. Business models have to reflect (CMOS), it is imperative to searchthe change. for new innovative solutions. FinnSight 2015_39
  • 44. Human interaction and understanding lay the foundation for human welfare Human interaction and the learning that takes places through interaction provide the very foundation for the welfare and well-being of both individ- uals and society and indeed for all development. People’s mental resources, their experiences of community and their knowledge of their own and foreign cultures are absolutely crucial to the creation of the future. Efforts to deepen understanding and strengthen processes of inter- action will also open up space for creativity, which in turn generates new social capital and innovations. Finland’s future success depends on our being able to strike a balance between stability, continuity and change. The humanities, social sciences and behavioural sciences are all working to deepen our understanding of the processes of human change and of how to achieve balance in the midst of these changes. It seems that the differentiated world-view of the natural sciences and humanities continues to hamper the achievement of comprehensive, interdisciplinary understanding. Finland has a strong and diverse tradition of interaction research in dif- ferent fields as well as strong technology expertise in these fields. In order that this technological expertise can be put into practice, we need a new understanding of language, culture and interaction. Language technology promotes human understanding, but in order to do this it needs to explore and gain deeper insights into inter- action and multilingualism. Focus areas of Finland has a high level of know- competence: how and expertise in research on • human interaction, communication, interaction, lan- understanding and guage and language technology. dialogue However, there is still room for im- • multicultural competence provement with respect to the col- laboration between information • language and technology and language studies in communications other disciplines; improved cooper- • life-long learning and ation here would certainly be a ma- understanding jor asset internationally. One impor- • people and media tant way of promoting a multidisci- • human technology plinary interactive perspective on communication, language, culture • human creativity and social activity is to bring togeth- • increasingly intelligent er existing strengths. technology • deep understanding of own culture40_FinnSight 2015
  • 45. 8 Understanding and Human Interaction search for new perspectives: by rising to this challenge they can also create new opportunities for learning. All the various means that are available for increasing, researching and supporting under- standing must be put to use. Investment needed in human technology Human technology refers to tech- nology products that are suited to people, that add to people’s men- tal, physical and social well-being and that promote human dignity. Among other things, human technology produces intelligent in-Mental resources stretched to the limit formation networks and variousSeveral ongoing changes in people’s living environment – technologisa- kinds of smart devices, learning andtion, the information flood, the growing demands in the workplace, and cultural services as well as healtha way of life pervaded by competition – are placing a huge drain on theirmental resources and capacity. In the midst of all these changes it is important to address and lookafter people’s emotional needs and socialisation, such as their need forconstancy and community, and to make sure they have meaningful hu-man relationships and a capacity for empathy. This is most important of all in the case of children and youths: it isimportant to look after their mental well-being, for that will largely deter-mine the success of individuals and society as a whole. Another keyfactor is the creativity of individuals: supporting children’s imagination,creativity, independence and skills of interaction is paramount to fosteringtheir mental resources. Earlier, welfare and equality used to increase in the wake of material afflu-ence, but nowadays economic growth no longer automatically brings abouthuman well-being. On the contrary, it seems that in countries with higherstandards of living, children’s and youths’ problems are only increasing. A sense of insecurity may trigger processes of violence and marginali-sation that are hard to predict. Indeed, the current changes present a hostof new challenges to welfare society. It is essential that welfare societynot only safeguards people’s financial security and economic equality, butalso looks after success and equality related to mental well-being. People in Finland must learn to take good advantage of difference and FinnSight 2015_41
  • 46. technology and language technol- tions – debate and discussions for which technology is at once, some- ogy applications. One of its distinc- what paradoxically, creating new forums. tive features is that it allows for the Online communication is facilitating the involvement of ever greater num- difference of individuals, for in- bers in active grassroots participation. Key areas of future research in com- stance that they speak different munication studies include multimediality and technology-driven interaction. languages and are of different ages. Finland has extensive expertise and know-how in the fields of informa- People today are spending tion technology and electronics, but it is possible that the main export as- more and more time interacting sets of technology industry today may decline in the future. New areas of with different kinds of machines, growth are needed, one of which is cognitive technology. This area of ex- which is also changing them. The pertise is created by the opportunities that are opened when competence proliferation of technical appli- related to the mind and the brain and on the other hand competence relat- ances is also making people and ed to language and thinking are integrated with technological know-how. societies, in all their complexity, Information networks, personal smart devices, learning and cultural increasingly vulnerable – even services as well as health services and language technology applications though technology is at the same are all an integral part of the future in this field. time contributing in many ways to increasing safety and security. Making multiculturalism an asset Human technology also deals Multicultural competence is needed both in the workplace and in different with the various drawbacks and social situations. It comprises the knowledge, skills and attitudes that are difficulties that are bound to in- needed for the effective management of a multicultural and international crease in the wake of technologi- environment and for intercultural communication and interaction. Multicul- sation. More and more open de- tural competence has not only social benefits, but it is also a production fac- bate is needed about the technol- tor that supports the international success of Finnish business and industry. ogisation of people’s living envi- It is important that existing competencies related to the integration of ronment and its value implica- immigrants are put to more effective use. Immigrants are a resource in42_FinnSight 2015
  • 47. 8 Understanding and Human Interaction the workplace. Successful inte- gration also works to prevent ten- sions from rising in society. More research knowledge is needed about how multicultural work- place communities operate, how the entry of immigrants into the labour markets is facilitated or how human relations are fostered in the workplace. No mechanisms are currently in place to measure or monitor the success of the authorities’ integration activities. Further- more, we continue to lack knowl- edge about how immigrants themselves experience theseactivities, and about how they could be encouraged to take a more activepart in these activities. In the field of economics, there has been some research concerningmulticultural management and intercultural marketing, although in Finlandit still remains quite modest. In the future, it is necessary to step uptransdisciplinary cooperation between economics, communications andthe social sciences, for example. Multiculturalism does not in any way threaten or undermine “Finnish-ness”; even in our globalising society, people will remain collectivelyand culturally distinct from one another. On the contrary, Finnishness isa highly-respected “brand” today: the country’s past history and harshclimate have given great strength and flexibility to the Finnish people. Finnishness is certainly worth fostering and developing as an area ofnew social and human innovations. Examples include international inter-mediation and the better exploitation of the natural environment, cultureand related technologies. Among the features that may well become weaknesses in the creation ofhuman networks or in the international marketing of our competencies arean ethos of going it alone as well as the relative cultural and ethnic homo-geneity of Finnish society. Making the best of difference and searching fornew perspectives are an ever-increasing challenge for Finland and its people. FinnSight 2015_43
  • 48. Materials development opens up new alternatives The future of materials production Focus areas of competence: depends largely on Finland’s suc- • technology transfer, innovation chains and processes cess in strengthening the areas of • printed electronics competence where it is possible • new surface techniques to gain the greatest competitive advantage. In the years to come, • specialised and effective use of wood, increasing investment will be re- biomass and renewable natural resources quired in materials production • cost-effective, environmentally friendly steel products that uses renewable raw material • biomimetic materials sources, as the scarcity of oil is • new carbon materials driving up the price of plastics. • multidisciplinary and cross-technological The need for alternative ener- gy sources and new materials applications in health care and related technologies has • photonics materials development opened up whole new opportun- • electronics materials development ities for Finnish research and innov- • biomaterials and bioactive materials ation. The development of tradi- • controlled synthesis of polymers tional materials also continues to hold significant potential. In par- ticular, the more efficient reuse and recycling of raw materials will be important for sustainable de- velopment in the future. The search for new research partners in the east is also expect- ed to open up new opportunities. The management and coordination of multicultural research teams requires considerable skill. This is an area that will require significant development effort in education. Stronger interdisciplinary cooperation in materials development Major scientific and technological achievements can be expected to flow from interdisciplinary cooper- ation between the natural sciences and technology fields in materials development. An interdisciplinary approach, in this case, requires44_FinnSight 2015
  • 49. 9 Materials for instance, materials research and product development should be inte- grated with design and cultural competence. Nonetheless, it is important to bear in mind that much of the most important work is still done with- in individual disciplines – if all activities at all levels were interdiscipli- nary, that would effectively undermine the preconditions for interdis- ciplinary cooperation, i.e. the in-depth expertise in different fields. There are numerous areas of competence in the field of mater- ials production. Some of them are relatively well-established and support existing industries, others are still at the stage of basic research, potentially looking to generate completely new products and innovations. Many of these areas of competence are related to reinforcing and regenerating existing lines of industry. Major focus areas in this field include surface engineering tech- niques and printed electronics as well as the specialised and effective utilisation of wood and biomass. Technology transfer is a separate compe- tence area that ties in with the development of all other innovation chains.expertise in physics, chemistry, Technology transfer should be improved at least by developing fundingbiomaterials, electronics, commu- structures, by intensifying cooperation throughout the network of actorsnications, programming, automat- and by providing training to technology transfer professionals.ics, medicine and biology. More generally, there is a need in materials production to invest in Interdisciplinary cooperation is modelling, particularly in the seamless cooperation between modellingalso needed in a broader sense: and manufacturing, which is crucial to the fluency of production. FinnSight 2015_45
  • 50. New materials to provide intelligence and functionality Printed electronics combines the expertise and assets of Finland’s strongest industries – electronics and paper – and can gain a signifi- cant position in different applica- tions. Printed electronics use ma- terials whose electronic proper- ties can be printed onto different kinds of surfaces. This kind of electronics is high- ly cost-effective and can therefore be used even in disposable appli- cations. There is a wide range of possible applications from pack- agings for commodity products through product specifications to different kinds of printed products and electronic displays. Surface techniques are of cen- tral importance to all major indus- tries in Finland and to many emerg- ing branches. Surface technology and surface treatments will rapidly gain in significance in the near fu- ture. Over the next ten years, ma- jor advances are expected in the development of dirt-resistant, self- lubricating, antibacterial and smart surfaces, for example. New surface techniques will offer improved product characteris- tics, or they may even pave the way to entirely new product func- tions. High expectations are placed on nanotechnology. An example of functionality is provided by mater- ials that respond to changes in tem- perature or pressure based on sen- sors embedded in their surfaces.46_FinnSight 2015
  • 51. 9 Materials The development of self-healing surfaces is in turn expected to open the world. One way in which Fin-up new horizons on product life-cycle thinking. Already important ad- land could benefit from the develop-vances have been made with various surfacing techniques and in the ment of these fields is through thenanostructures of different types of surfaces. There are a number of small search for new market niches.businesses in Finland exploiting the existing expertise in this field. Nano- It is too late for Finland to mountstructure surfaces may be dirt-resistant, exceptionally durable or refract a large-scale basic research pro-light in a specific manner. gramme on carbon materials, but it Materials are expected to have ever new properties. In particular, they is nonetheless important to keepshould be environmentally friendly, recyclable and help to save materials: a close eye on developments in thepeople now want more with less. With soaring oil prices and falling paper field and to make carefully targetedprices, the use of biomass is considered a viable way for reducing emis- research investments. In principle itsion levels. is possible that in the future carbon Finland’s high level of research, development and industry in the field materials will partly replace silicon-of forest management and use provides a solid platform for the develop- based electronics and that we willment of new materials in wood processing. Researchers both in Finland be moving on from the Silicon Ageand elsewhere are looking into ways of producing biofuels out of ethanol to the Carbon Age. Great expecta-and lignin, which are obtained from wood. tions are placed on carbon nano- Finland has strong traditions in cellulose chemistry and in the chemi- tubes, offering excellent thermalcal processing of cellulose. Because they are biodegradable and com- and electrical conductivity, and hugepostable, cellulose-based products have a new future in the packaging advantages over steel in terms ofindustry, for example. There are also new applications for lignin in the strength.manufacture of bioplastics and glues. Two key aspects in the develop- New carbon materials and biomaterials are a very interesting potential ment of biomaterials are those ofnew area of expertise and are receiving much research attention around multidisciplinarity and biodegradabil- ity. A familiar example of biomater- ials is provided by contact lenses. A biomaterial may be one that does not causer tissue rejection. A new field of research now emerging alongside biomaterials is that of bio- mimetic materials, in which the aim is to emulate the functional proper- ties of biological materials. This is a particularly strong area in Japan and the United States. In Finland as well as elsewhere, the topic is still at the stage of basic research. Therefore any allocations of public funding must be carefully selected. FinnSight 2015_47
  • 52. Global economy needs innovations Global competition will present ever-greater challenges for Finland in the years to come. This applies to all areas of society and the economy, including business and production, research and develop- ment, and educational policy. With the development of the global economy, three focus areas of competence are expected to become particularly important to Focus areas of competence: Finland. These are the manage- • assessing and managing global risks ment and intensification of inno- • the impacts of business globalisation vation processes; the develop- on national economies ment of services, their conversion • exploiting global knowledge into products and export; and the • reforming the public sector, the prerequisites more effective use of globally produced knowledge. for taxation, and public acquisitions It is also important that Fin- • enhancing the production and exports of services land has a clear understanding • promoting and managing the innovation process of the implications of economic • new research challenges globalisation to business and to • international migration national economies, for more and more industries are now having48_FinnSight 2015
  • 53. 10 Global economy Breakdown of world industrial production Service production as a proportion of GDP by region in 1750–2003, % in selected countries in 2004, % Norway Finland Austria Germany East Asia: Sweden China, Japan, India North America: Denmark USA, Canada Netherlands Europe: Germany, UK, UK Private France, Italy, France services Spain, Sweden, Services Belgium, USA total Switzerland Source: Bairoch (1982), ETLAto compete in what is a global tition and the globalisation of work are stepping up the demands on effi-marketplace. It is necessary to ciency, which is increasing pressures to lower costs. At the same time,make sure that information about however, new business opportunities are opened up for manufacturers ofinternationalisation and global highly specialised products, systems and operations is readily ac-cessible through research insti- Creative research inspires innovationstutes, Statistics Finland, inter- The management of the innovation process is rated as the single mostnational organisations and busi- important area of competence in the global economy. It is important notness and industry organisations. only for research and product development, but also for management and A major factor impacting the other areas.Finnish economy and its structure Competence and know-how means producing and developing newis the liberalisation of world trade, knowledge, networking and the application and integration of so-calledalthough that is now largely tak- tacit knowledge with codified research knowledge. The conditions for net-ing place through regional mecha- working are excellent because in a small country it is easier to get keynisms as many market areas are experts and decision makers to work together towards a common objec-keen to start the process of inte- tive and to make decisions at short notice. It is necessary to promotegration on a local basis. However, and increase networking among business companies, universities andthis trend may also lead to trade research institutes as well as decision-makers in the public sector.bloc formation, which may deter In order to generate innovations it is necessary to have an adequategrowth. infrastructure – opportunities for creative research and development. Environmental agreements Requirements of efficiency must not be allowed to undermine creativeare also having a major impact on innovation and its resources.the operating environment of na- Finland needs to be able to attract competent professionals into thetional economies. All in all, compe- country, particularly in those fields where Finnish skills and competencies FinnSight 2015_49
  • 54. Finland still has much to learn in exploiting opportunities for service exports. Finland has been described as a “self-service soci- ety” and it continues to lag be- hind the competition in the export of services. Traditionally, the pri- vate services sector has been relatively small in Finland and the whole service culture still needs development. Nevertheless, Finland has one resource that is crucially impor- tant to service development, i.e. relatively highly educated human capital. The development of ser- vices also requires a favourable business climate, which can be fostered by means of economic policy. could still be improved or where a shortage of skilled labour is anticipat- It is absolutely crucial in the ed. The same applies to universities: one way to get competent immi- global marketplace to have a clear grants to move into Finland is to offer more places for foreign students. understanding of how demand But this is not yet enough; the foreign talents must also be encour- and needs as well as markets aged to remain in Finland by offering them inspiring job opportunities. It change both in services and in is particularly important that employers show a positive attitude to the other business. As has often been recruitment of immigrants. observed, Finns are good at de- veloping new products and tech- Much progress to be made in the export of services nologies, but we very much lag The development of services, their conversion into products and export is behind in sales and marketing another significant focus area for the future. There are several reasons for skills. This does not bode well this. Service production accounts for a growing proportion of world trade, for our chances in world market and the same goes for Finland’s gross national product. Service production competition. is important not only for general welfare, but also for industrial competitive- Finnish export industries and ness, as a growing part of industrial foreign trade is related to services. other business that are active in There is plenty of scope for growth in health care, welfare services the international marketplace will for the elderly as well as in wholesale and retail trade and business ser- need to invest in improving and vices, for instance. The development of these opportunities requires inter- developing their marketing of disciplinary development programmes as well as efforts to recognize services as well as the customer- ICT opportunities and user needs and to test new concepts. Successful driven product development ef- services are those that integrate social, commercial, organisational, forts that are required in that mar- technological or design expertise, among others. ketplace.50_FinnSight 2015
  • 55. 10 Global economySpecial expertise in risk analysis and managementGreater efficiency in the use and application of global knowledge willassume increasing importance in both business and industry and scienceand technology. More and more often, key knowledge is produced out-side the boundaries of small countries, but at the same time that informa-tion spreads much faster and more widely than before. In order to remainat the cutting edge of research, Finland needs to be well prepared forchange and to have in place the mechanisms for monitoring internationaldevelopments and for using and transferring global knowledge. International risks are set to increase in the global economy, and Fin-land is well placed to emerge as a major expert in the analysis and man-agement of the vulnerabilities related to information, telecommunicationsand energy networks as well as in related business areas. Finland alsohas special expertise in risks related to forests and environmental changes.There is a need for interdisciplinary research and for the development ofnew evaluation and management methods. Finland itself needs new information about global risks and their man-agement for purposes of foreign policy, economic policy and energy poli-cy and for ensuring the health of business and industry. Energy marketrisks are particularly important since they can have dramatic impacts onthe economy and on politics. Finland is a small country and needs to concentrate its high-level researchin those areas and those research units that have special expertise and acompetitive advantage. It is important that knowledge produced elsewhereis put to effective use both in cutting-edge research and in production. In order to succeed in global competition, Finland must encourageinternationalisation among its researchers who are working in smallerfields of expertise. One possible avenue is provided by the mobility of re-searchers. Businesses must also be encouraged to participate in inter-national cooperation through publicly funded research and developmentprojects. Research should also work to create new tools for the use ofglobal knowledge. In its key market areas, Finland needs to have more multilingual peo-ple who have a strong background in international business and who arefamiliar with the local culture. Social, communication, and interactionskills as well as cultural knowledge are increasingly important in theglobal economy. As the hub of the world economy shifts to Asia and other emergingmarket areas, there is also growing need for research into the economy,culture and politics of these markets. More coordinated or better net-worked research on these areas as well as on developing countries wouldenable better access to knowledge. FinnSight 2015_51
  • 56. Interfaces and synergies The themes and focus areas of competence addressed by the foresight There is an abundance of new panels form a whole series of interfaces that are in a constant state of interfaces between bio-expertise, flux. Many of these themes and focus areas of competence are closely information and communications interwoven, and their collaboration is expected to deliver significant syn- and materials development that ergy benefits and provide opportunities for breakthroughs and innovations. offer great potential for scientific The cornerstones of a good life include good health and the opportu- breakthroughs and new technolo- nity to understand through rich interaction and learning throughout the life gies and innovations. New ser- span. These are also basic measures of welfare and development in soci- vices and service innovations ety and keys to groundbreaking, creative work. pave the way to new approaches52_FinnSight 2015
  • 57. and new ways of doing things,facilitate new welfare solutions andrenew businesses. Intersections of competencies Environment and energy issuesas well as the security and safetyof society’s infrastructure areamong the most critical issues for Environmentthe future of Finland and indeedthe whole world. The development Information and Materials communicationsof the global economy and govern-ance provides the basis for nation-al wealth and for people’s well- ty Gl ob c uribeing. al d se The depth and diversity of know- anledge and understanding included Understanding Learningin the focus areas of competencecovered by FinnSight 2015 cannotbe reduced into simple models or Health andformulae. What lies ahead for Fin- well-beingland in 2015 in the light of this fore- re u ctusight project? One possible way to ra str ecform an overall view is presented Inf on Bio-expertise om Services yschematically in the figure below. and bio-society and energy All countries share the sameinterest of developing competen-cies in order to increase wealth.However, it is crucially importantthat this is done on people’s ownterms: in this way the outcome willbe more satisfactory and more sus-tainable both from the individualand from society’s point of view. The development of researchand technology creates new innova-tions for greater wealth and welfare.This is facilitated by those compe- The development and application of competencies is taking place intencies that together with other an economic, political and cultural environment that is ever-changing. Thecompetencies create new practices: challenge for both citizens, businesses and society is presented by globalinformation and communication development: as well as inspiring and encouraging development efforts,technology, bio-expertise and mater- it also involves new risks that need to be taken into account. The mostials know-how, service innovations critical issue for the future has to do with the sustainability of the naturaland society’s infrastructures. environment and the availability of energy – and their global management. FinnSight 2015_53
  • 58. I On human terms Interaction and learning take precedence The human mind develops in the process of cognitive and social interaction. The basic knowledge we have about the functioning of the mind and the brain and the practical competence related to the mechanisms of thinking and language are now being inte- grated with technology. Our un- derstanding of the human mind and how it works is continuing to grow. All this provides a more solid basis to explore the underlying causes of learning difficulties and to develop life-long learning and high-level, sometimes unex- pected learning environments. The solutions are based on a ba- sic understanding of human biol- ogy as well as emotional and social interaction. Health promoting policy and citizens’ choices Finland’s competitive advantages in health expertise lie in public health care, a research-friendly atmosphere, well-researched and well-described population and pa- tient datasets and a high standard of clinical and basic research. Fin- land offers an ideal environment for the responsible operation of biobanks and stem cell research, for example. People today attach ever great- er importance to the promotion of health and the maintenance of functional capacity. There is a54_FinnSight 2015
  • 59. growing understanding of theimpacts of lifestyle choices onhealth and well-being. Healthpolicy is geared to encouraging ahealthy way of living and prevent-ive public health care. People’sown choices gain greater signifi-cance. The goal of health and well-being also guides the planningand building of everyday livingand work environments. Humaninteraction and activity are againthe basis for well-being. As atti-tudes continue to change and the mental and social well-being and health and add to human dignity.population is ageing, the demand Technologies related to nature may well emerge as a growing andwill increase for functional food successful area of human technology in Finland. Opportunities to experi-and for products and services that ence the natural environment will continue to be important quality-of-lifepromote health and functional factors. Finland has an abundance of natural riches that are ideally suitedcapacity. to various forms of nature tourism, ecologically sustainable leisure servic- es and supportive technologies.The opportunities ofhuman technology Learning for activitySocial interaction skills and the Effective life-long learning is important in supporting citizens and employeesbasic knowledge supporting maintain their activity and functional capacity in what is an increasinglythose skills are recognized as technologised society. Informal learning in diverse and high-quality learn-crucial in education, learning, in ing environments will be integrated as part of formal education. Indi-the workplace, in international vidual learning, organisational learning and supportive technologies areexchange, multiculturalism and important new assets for Finland from an educational equality point ofthe promotion of mental health. view. In learning and interactive environments it is important to recognizeICTs have greatly expanded op- the enriching power of difference.portunities for various kinds ofinteraction. Not all of the out- Finnish culture offers chances for survivalcomes and consequences are The Finnish democratic welfare state and dynamic, creative informationknown yet. society both continue to enjoy international recognition. The country’s The aim of R&D is to create small, well-educated population has shown great flexibility and adaptabil-improved learning technologies ity. History has afforded Finland and its people – living in a harsh climateand more human technologies. and in-between two distinct cultures – skills of survival than may beA technology is described as extremely useful in our globalising world.human when it is well adapted The tradition of confidence and reliability strengthens all developmentto the needs of their end-users, efforts. Equality and egalitarianism continue to remain strengths thatwhen they promote physical, allow people to have their say, safe in the knowledge that they will be FinnSight 2015_55
  • 60. heard. Striking the right balance between history, continuity and change is still a significant asset in this world. Cultural competence is one of the strengths of the Finnish Cultural competence in a multicultural world economy, society and develop- Multiculturalism will continue to expand and increase in Finnish society ment work. Steps are needed to as a result of increasing international exchange and cooperation. Cultural strengthen its position along competence is an important premise for success in a globalising world; with other competencies. from an economic point of view it is vital. For communications culture, taking the best possible advantage of differences and the search for new The human, social, health and perspectives presents a major challenge indeed. The role of partnerships economic costs of marginalisa- in interorganisational cooperation is set to increase, and it is important tion can be reduced through that there is the competence to create and manage these partnership in the synergy of different compe- an appropriate, win-win manner. tencies An attitude of going it alone and coping continues to exercise an influ- ence both in the workplace and in service culture. This kind of thinking The greater the sensitivity may well hamper the development of communal learning processes, shown by technological services and work organisation. Moving towards greater interactivity re- development work to basic mains a current challenge for all development efforts. human and social needs and Multiculturalism is, on the one hand, about diversity in everything considerations, the higher its from values and attitudes to interaction; and on the other hand, about equality, where difference does not mean inequality. Multicultural compe- quality and the stronger its tence leads to a natural life in a multicultural society. This competence competitiveness. does not develop all by itself, but it can be consciously developed, and Basic education has the task people’s attitudes can be influenced by means of education and research. of providing civic skills and Apart from the social good that comes out of this competence, it will also have benefits for Finnish businesses in their international operations. competencies. The life-long The need and role of cultural competence will continue to strengthen maintenance and development in both design, product development and service innovations. Cross-cul- of these competencies is also tural competence will improve and develop through research and applica- important. Apart from general tions in intercultural communication and interaction. education, civic competence also includes a basic know- From marginalisation to interaction ledge of science and technol- Decrease in or even absence of interaction causes human suffering. It is ogy, the use of information and therefore important that research is stepped up to monitor and analyse communication technologies the processes that lead to the dwindling of interaction and eventually to and networks, the promotion of marginalisation in learning, health, and work. health, dialogue and interaction Processes of marginalisation have a tendency to accumulate, and they skills, communication skills and often begin in childhood and youth. The human, social and economic costs involved are unacceptably high. There is a need for broadly-based, social and cultural skills. interdisciplinary cooperation as well as new knowledge about how our society is changing to support that cooperation.56_FinnSight 2015
  • 61. II Enablers – core competenciesand new practicesCustomer and user orienta-tion and service expertisePeople’s lifestyles are changing andat the same time the demand forservices is increasing. Key chal-lenges in the development of theservice sector in Finland are toraise the level of service expertise,to increase productivity and to con-verse national service conceptsexportable into global markets.ICTs provide a powerful tool for thedevelopment of new business con-cepts and service exports. Scienceand technology can also help makeeveryday life easier. The first requirement of suc-cessful innovations is understand-ing and anticipating customerneeds and desires. New knowledgeand understanding is needed of thehuman beings, consumers and end-users, different uses and functional-ities, of how people’s lifestyles arechanging. All this must be support-ed by market and marketing know-how. Customer and user-orientedthinking promotes and acceler-ates the adoption of new innova-tions. In service industries andtraditional manufacturing custom-er and service orientation pro-vides a sound basis for renewing extension of people’s physical and cognitive capacity. The key to makingbusiness concepts, for improved the best possible use of technology in designing and developing everydayproductivity and for a new kind of living, working and learning environments lies in understanding humancompetitive advantage. activity. Further steps are needed to facilitate the development and better useInfrastructure functionality of integrated community planning and services. Finland can offer servicesICTs are changing people’s behav- that integrate measurement expertise, remote sensing, governance andiour and living environments. regulatory expertise. It is important to promote innovations that are multi-Technology serves as a tool or disciplinary. FinnSight 2015_57
  • 62. functions of society, and at the same time the lifespan of systems must be taken into account. Ser- vice innovations support the design and planning of good living, work- ing and learning environments. System competence as a strength A major short-term challenge for Finland is to improve the efficiency effectiveness and impact of its so- cial and health care system. The ultimate aim is to secure people’s all-round well-being. The productiv- ity of the system can be improved by the sensible use of new technol- ogy. In renewing the service sys- tem it is also possible to plan new ways to facilitate the mobility of people, materials and information. Systems research is by nature an interdisciplinary exercise. Its results are often dependent on time and on the social and cultur- al context, and they can never be People are increasingly interested to receive accurate information totally exported to other cultures. about their living environments and themselves; furthermore, information Finnish systems research can and its web-based availability are related to work, housing, leisure activ- therefore be efficiently applied in ities, life-long-learning and citizenship. Welcoming and inspiring environ- the development of the social and ments add to the appeal and attraction of Finland, and their development health care sector. helps to create new exportable solutions and social innovations. Country differences in infra- The built environment will become increasingly vulnerable. Energy, structure and other systems ham- information and communications systems as well as logistics network per international and global opera- are among society’s most important infrastructures. It is paramount that tions and prevent the diffusion of the security and reliability of digital information systems are maintained. innovations. Building and construc- Finland has a very well-functioning infrastructure, the maintenance and tion, energy, logistics and transpor- undisturbed operation of which requires constant investment. This also tation are some of the areas ties in with questions of safety and appeal. where country differences cause Risk, reliability and vulnerability assessments as well as simulation and unnecessary investment as well process control are further examples of competencies that are used in the as development and operating development of the built environment. It is important to secure the vital costs. In the first stage coopera-58_FinnSight 2015
  • 63. tion in system development will usable, “intelligent” technology that learns as it is used, is to understandbe focused on a European level. the interaction between human beings and technology. It is also neces- The development of global sary to have an understanding of the interaction between people andbusiness operations and system groups of people as well as knowledge of the needs of special groups,management depend upon the such as elderly people. The goals of human intelligent technology can onlyeffective integration and use of be achieved through multidisciplinary cooperation.information and communications Finland is well placed to maintain its position as one of the world’stechnologies, systems and net- leading ICT producers and users. The challenge now is to move forwardworks. Finland has sound expertise with a balanced development effort in high-level research and basic com-in this field. The more effective the petencies as well as in the application and commercialisation of technolo-application of systems, the faster gies in different fields. In the long term the focus of this development ef-and more flexible the business fort will be on wireless, broadband and seamless communication, know-operation and the easier the task ledge and content management, and methods and system expertise.of streamlining business chains. ICT is an enabling technology for many other fields and their innov- Finland’s total productivity ation activities. Methods and system competence will become a majorand competitiveness can be sig- competitive asset for Finland as it merges with the high-level expertisenificantly improved by raising pro- in other fields. The digital convergence of communication media, theductivity levels in different sec- ubiquity of communication and its independence of time and place aretors. Information and communica- changing ways of doing things throughout society. The changes in modestions technologies can provide of communication are seen in all industries.invaluable support in upgradingindustrial functions, products and Materials development and biotechnology: towardsservices as well as in developing multidisciplinary cooperation and diversitythe service sector and increasing In materials development and biotechnology, investment to boost theits productivity. synergies between different fields can help to generate new production and new applications that make use of nanotechnology. It is importantHuman intelligent technology to have a clear picture of current strengths in basic research and applica-One of the key requirements in tions. Finland has a high level of research expertise in biomaterials, bioen-the development of useful and ergy, bio-ICT and bioinformatics, and the integration of these different fields will open up new opportunities. The various players in Finland know and trust one another, which is an important asset, providing an opportunity to create and strengthen broder cooperation. However, even greater effort is needed to boost interdiscipli- nary cooperation that combines the expertise and competencies of basic sciences and technology. Among the fields that should be integrated with materials develop- ment and biotechnology are information technology and its systems as well as the processing and modelling of large data masses. Bioinformat- ics can open up new opportunities for significant new breakthroughs in Finnish biomedicine. Multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches are needed in other fields as well, including materials production where cul- tural and design competencies are needed. FinnSight 2015_59
  • 64. At the same time it is crucial to retain the strong basis of in-depth ex- Research in these fields needs pertise within individual disciplines, for it is only strong basic research that a stronger input by industrial devel- can pave the way to new innovations and regeneration of business and opers. Together we can facilitate industry. Innovations that depart radically from earlier technologies often the development of new, regener- come about quite unexpectedly, and it may be difficult to predict their ating technologies for new and ex- economic significance and value even after the idea has been developed. isting businesses. Customer and It is not uncommon for the inventors themselves to underestimate their end-user orientation must be ap- importance. Radical innovations require opportunities for creative work plied in technology development. and unfettered basic research, the outcomes of which do not necessarily have any immediate, economically significant applications. It is paramount to foster Intersectoral synergy and competence transfer open up competencies that facilitate new business opportunities scientific breakthroughs and Materials research and biosciences applications will spread more and technological trajectories. more widely in business and industry and throughout society. Potential new applications and business opportunities are created most particularly It is necessary to have strong on the interface of and in interaction with different fields. The integration basic research that does not of ICTs and materials and biotechnology in the forest and communica- necessarily have direct econom- tions industries may pave the way to exciting new business potential. ically significant applications. Health biotechnology is creating new innovation potential in health care and pharmaceuticals, for example. The development of new bioma- Multidisciplinary approaches terials integrates stem cell research with materials development. Func- and the integration of compe- tional foods are another example of an area of application where Finland tencies in different fields shall has strong competitiveness potential. be encouraged. The develop- The principles of sustainable development continue to have growing ment of applications requires influence, increasing the potential of bioproduction. Increased attention is paid to the complete use of biomass, and its various components are uti- an in-depth understanding of lised as carefully as possible in the manufacture of competitive and sus- the human needs, culture, tainable products. This may generate greater industrial diversity in Finland. nature and society and of how Global competition for biomass resources is set to accelerate at the same they change with time. time as the paradigm change in energy production gathers momentum and the need for new renewable energy resources increases. A focused, long-term research and development effort re- Need for industrial and commercial development quires a common understanding In technology-driven fields such as materials technology, nanotechnology and a strong target orientation and biotechnology where the development effort is geared to the creation from the very outset. of enabling technologies, there is also a need for end-user driven develop- ment towards specific future applications and opportunities. We must Networked environments are both renew existing industries and create new business areas. Business needed where researchers, developers should be closely integrated into the development process industrial developers as well from the very outset, providing their views and assessments of the op- as entrepreneurs and business portunities and the time span of innovations. developers work closely with one another at all stages of the innovation process.60_FinnSight 2015
  • 65. III Challengers –global developmentMeeting the challenges ofthe global economyFinland is closely involved in thegrowth of the global economyand in utilising the opportunitiesfor growth. Finland has a clearvision and commitment to makethe best use of science and tech-nology. To implement this nationalvision as well as the positive im-pacts of scientific and technologi-cal development, we will needactively to search for Europeanand global partners. Global competition of busi-ness environments and the lowercost levels in many emerging econ-omies make productivity an in-creasingly critical factor for Finnishcompetitiveness. Productivity canbe improved by means of busi-ness renewal, new ICT applica-tions and new service concepts,for instance. The Finnish innovation envi-ronment needs constant accessto up-to-date and forward-lookinginformation about the challengesof the global economy and thechanges in business, operatingand innovation environments. Thismakes it easier for a small coun-try to find its own niches by spe-cialising in areas where it is possi-ble to achieve an internationallystrong position. At the same timeFinland should seek to optimiseits resource allocation with a viewto boosting welfare in the coun-try, the growth and renewal ofbusiness and industry. FinnSight 2015_61
  • 66. possible. Multiculturalism and difference must be seen as a richness and an opportunity for creativity. The growth of multicul- turalism will require new leader- ship practices, a knowledge of foreign cultures as well as an ability to understand and take advantage of difference. Assessing and managing global risks Finland has strong expertise and competencies in risk manage- ment, including system know- how, methods know-how, project management and control, crisis management and integration know-how. Demand for the build- ing and management of global operational systems will increase. This will require, and at the same time develop, competencies in conflict management, which in turn will provide an invaluable tool for improving safety and security and the functionality of infrastruc- ture. Global risk management in economy and in the energy and environment sectors is increas- ingly important. The assessment The management of global knowledge and multiculturalism of global risks and the production In the current flood of information it is necessary to concentrate on find- of related knowledge can be im- ing, analysing and creatively linking together the most relevant informa- proved and stepped up through tion, which ultimately will help to gain a clearer view of the bigger picture. interdisciplinary cooperation. Fin- In order to step up the effectiveness of innovation, it is important that the land has special competence in opportunities offered by global competencies and researcher exchange various sectors of the economy are interactively better utilised. and in risks related to forests In the context of EU cooperation the target is to promote more effect- and environmental change. Other ive interaction, to exchange views and opinions on foresights and to set areas of strength include know- joint goals and objectives so that R&D cooperation can be as effective as how in international regulation,62_FinnSight 2015
  • 67. the management of global eco-systems and the environment,remote sensing and ecology. With the continuing advance ofeconomic and social integration,products, services and productionare increasingly regulated by meansof international agreements. Theharmonisation of regulation in dif-ferent market areas increases over-all productivity, which is in the inter-ests of all concerned. It is essentialthat there is a broad and collabora-tive involvement in developing glo-bal and EU-level regulation. The driving force and the net-work for this development effortare created on a needs basis ac-cording to existing expertises. In-volvement in regulation will guaran-tee a sufficient awareness of thedirection of the market develop- Sustainable environmental managementment, as well as giving an opportu- One of the key challenges with respect to environmental management isnity to actively influence its direc- the simultaneous management of environmental issues at the global andtion. This improves the prospects local level, which are closely linked with each other. Globalisation and thefor forward-looking R&D and also liberalisation of world trade are fundamentally changing the framework ofsupports the timely introduction of environmental management.innovations in the marketplace. The trend so far has been towards increasing environmental regula- tion at the same time as the public sector has assumed a stronger role. Globalisation will increase the role of multinational companies. Clean water, forests, and pristine nature are other precious resources are in- creasingly turning into critical natural resources. Policy innovations for sustainable development will be in growing demand. There is a need for basic research into ecosystems, for analysis of alternative ecosystem scenarios and for new decision-making methods. Improvements are also needed to methods of forecasting environmental crises and methods of environmental management so that the short-term target of economic ef- fectiveness does unduly increase risk-taking or overload infrastructures. Finland has strong expertise and competence in all these fields. The integration of environmental know-how in these fields with other areas of expertise offers real potential to create significant innovations at the product, process, solutions and service level. FinnSight 2015_63
  • 68. The challenges of energy production and use The global and national challenges related to the environment and energy ergy production allows for more and the responses to those challenges in the near future will have impact diverse technological solutions on the economy, welfare, the quality of life and safety and security. As and new services concepts. energy prices continue to rise and climate change continues to gather momentum with increasing energy consumption, new forms of energy The management of production will be developed and introduced. innovation networks The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy will globally More and more often, innovations change the role of different actors. Increased efficiency in energy use will are created in global networks. require new solutions in materials production and use as well as new en- The management of innovation ergy solutions in living environments and transportation. networks supports the develop- The development of the energy sector is very much shaped by the ment of the innovation process interaction between the international economy, politics and living environ- and facilitates new innovations. ments. Finland must as soon as possible take advantage of the compe- The knowledge and know-how tence potential it has created in the energy sector. There is intense polit- ical pressure to introduce renewable forms of energy production, and new energy solutions are needed quickly. It is particularly important to expand the energy production base. Biomass is used extensively in Finnish in- dustries and there is therefore extensive expertise of biomass utilisation in the country. The use of integrated biomasses could complement en- ergy solutions that rely on fossil coal. Finland also has outstanding competence in services related to en- ergy technology, but there is a need now for new commercially innovative solutions, and particularly for environmentally sound energy solutions. The demand for services that can help to boost energy and material efficiency is also set to increase, and the development and offering of those ser- vices is a potential success factor for Finland. The decentralisation of en-64_FinnSight 2015
  • 69. related to the management of It is absolutely essential constantly to monitor the factors that deter-innovation networks is needed in mine and influence Finland’s appeal to business and entrepreneurship,all R&D sectors – in companies, to investors, experts and researchers and to promptly take the decisionsat universities and at research required by any changes observed.institutes. Finland’s networked and open Foresightingenvironment allows for relatively Foresighting is a key and integral part of strategy work and organisationalquick and smooth decision-mak- development. It is important to strengthen the opportunities of the Finn-ing. Cooperation between basic ish innovation environment to well utilise foresighting and to support theand applied research and an effec- development of insight from opportunities and threats opened up by thetive innovation environment have changes. Furthermore, it is important to ensure that Finland has sufficienta particularly important role in this knowledge of global driving forces and their impacts.respect. The processes and networks of foresighting must be constantly up- A key aspect in the manage- dated and improved so that they can support the renewal of businessment of the innovation process is and industry and the public sector. To this end, constructive discussionunderstanding how people’s de- and debate across established boundaries on the needs for changes inmands and needs as well as their the innovation environment and in innovation activities is of paramountbehaviour change. The assess- importance.ment of profitability and businessopportunities and competence re-lated to marketing, logistics andbrand development are important Increasing productivity is crucial for Finnish competitiveness. In thisareas of expertise and crucial to regard the development of services and service innovations as wellsuccess in global competition. How- as ICT applications have key significance.ever, this is an area where thereis need for much improvement in Steps are needed to strengthen the use of global knowledge andthe Finnish innovation field. Test cultural know-how in research and innovation.environments for new conceptsare also needed with a view to Global risk management has assumed ever greater importance.ensuring global replicability. In particular, there is a growing need for competencies in foresight From a national economic and risk management related to the economy, environment, energy,point of view it is vitally important infrastructure and try and optimise the impactsof public authorities’ operations. Energy and environment issues are of critical importance globally.Better management, control and More investment is needed in developing new forms of energyincentive systems are needed so generation, in the sustainable management of the environment andthat productivity can be increased in environmental technology the public sector as well. Pub-lic-private partnerships can pro- The management of effective innovation processes is a critical factorvide new solutions in many serv- that must be further strengthenedice concepts, for example, as wellas increasing productivity. FinnSight 2015_65
  • 70. Appendix Members of panels Aav Marianne (2), Museum Director Hirvensalo Inkeri (10), Special Advisor Design Museum Ministry of Finance, Financial Markets Department Airaksinen Timo (8), Professor University of Helsinki Holmberg Sirkka-Leena (5), Project Co-ordinator Back Ralph-Johan (7), Academy Professor VR Ltd VR Cargo Åbo Akademi University Honkatukia Juha (10), Research Director Bamford Dennis (6), Academy Professor Government Institute for Economic University of Helsinki Research VATT Borenius Seppo (7), Director Hukkinen Janne (4), Professor Tellabs Helsinki University of Technology Carlson Lauri (7), Professor Huttunen Jussi (3), Professor, Editor-in-Chief University of Helsinki Medical Journal Duodecim Eskelinen Jarmo (8), Director Hyyppä Juha (7), Professor, Head of Forum Virium Helsinki Department, Finnish Geodetic Institute Estola Kari-Pekka (7), Hämeen-Anttila Jaakko (8), Professor Head of Technology Exploration, University of Helsinki Vice President Nokia Research Center Härtsiä Heikki (5), Vice President, Sales & Marketing Forsström Jari (3), Medical Director Insta DefSec WM-data Ikkala Olli (9), Academy Professor Haaparanta Pertti (4), Professor Helsinki University of Technology Helsinki School of Economics Ilmoniemi Risto (8), Professor Haikonen Pentti O. (8), Helsinki University of Technology and Principal Scientist, Cognitive Technology Nexstim Ltd Nokia Research Center Itkonen Pentti (3), Special Expert Hansson Per (10), Vice President Ministry of Social Affairs and Health Wärtsilä Corporation Jaakola Pekka (8), Harjuhahto-Madetoja Katrina (7), Senior Vice President, Technology Programme Director, Information Society SWelcom, part of SanomaWSOY Group Programme, Prime Minister’s Office Johansson Allan (4), Hautamäki Jarkko (1), Professor Research Professor (em) University of Helsinki VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and Lund University (International Institute Hedvall Kaj (2), Director, for Industrial Environmental Economics), Senate Properties Visiting Professor Heino Markku T. (9), Research Manager Juhola Helene (7), Director R&D Nokia Research Center/ Federation of the Finnish Media Industry Multimedia Technologies Laboratory Jämsä Timo (3), Professor Heinonen Esa (3), Vice President University of Oulu Orion Corporation Orion Pharma, Research and Development Järvelin Kalervo (7), Academy Professor University of Tampere66_FinnSight 2015
  • 71. Järvinen Petteri (1), Researcher Leppänen Heikki (10), Director Nissilä Eero (6),Petteri Järvinen Oy Kone Corporation Director of Breeding Programmes Boreal Plant Breeding LtdKangasniemi Ilkka (9), Chief Scientific Leskelä Markku (9), Academy ProfessorOfficer, Vivoxid Ltd University of Helsinki Nyman Göte (2), Professor University of HelsinkiKasanen Kari (1), Senior Partner Leskinen Johanna (2), Head of ResearchTalent Partners National Consumer Research Centre Oksanen Kari (5), Head of Risk ManagementKaski Samuel (6), Professor Liebkind Karmela (8), Professor Nordea Bank Finland PlcHelsinki University of Technology University of Helsinki Otala Leenamaija (1),Kasvio Antti (1), Team Leader, Lonka Kirsti (1), Professor Professor, Principal LecturerWork and Society University of Helsinki Helsinki University of Technology andFinnish Institute of Occupational Helsinki Polytechnic StadiaHealth Lund Peter (4), Professor Helsinki University of Technology Paalanen Mikko (9), ProfessorKauppi Lea (4), Director General Helsinki University of TechnologyFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Lundström Petra (4), Technology Manager Paavilainen Leena (6),Kellomäki Seppo (4), Academy Professor Fortum Corporation Director of Research, ProfessorUniversity of Joensuu Metla, Finnish Forest Research Institute Luostarinen Heikki (8), ProfessorKiander Jaakko (2), Research Director University of Tampere Palva Tapio (6),Government Institute for Economic Professor, Vice Dean (research)Research VATT Luukkonen Jari (4), University of Helsinki Conservation DirectorKivinen Jukka (9), Head of Venturing WWF Pasivirta Pasi (5),UPM Wood Products Long Term Vision Co-ordinator Lyytinen Heikki (1), Professor European Defense AgencyKnuuttila Hilkka (9), Professor University of JyväskyläUniversity of Joensuu and Patomäki Heikki (10), ProfessorBorealis Polymers Mannila Heikki (7), Academy Professor University of Helsinki Helsinki Institute for InformationKnuuttila Simo (8), Academy Professor Technology, Helsinki University of Pekurinen Markku (2), Research ProfessorUniversity of Helsinki Technology and University of Helsinki National Research and Development Centre for Welfare and Health STAKESKoivurinta Juha (6), Managing Director Mauranen Anna (8), ProfessorFibroGen Europe Corporation University of Helsinki Penttilä Merja (6), Research Professor VTT Technical Research Centre ofKorhonen Raimo (7), Vice President, Meriläinen Pekka (3), FinlandResearch and Technical Development Research Director and ProfessorAvantone GE Healthcare Finland and Piiroinen Pekka (3), Development Director Helsinki University of Technology DaniscoKoski Heli (10), ProfessorHelsinki School of Economics Mykkänen Jussi (10), Director, Pulkkinen Urho (5), Research Professor Business Development VTT Technical Research Centre ofLammintausta Risto (6), Managing Vaisala Group FinlandDirectorHormos Medical Ltd Müller Kiti (1), Research Professor Punkka Eero (3), Technology Director Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, SuuntoLaukkanen Risto (5), President Brain and Work Research CenterPöyry Plc Puttonen Vesa (5), Professor Mäkelä Tomi (3), Professor Helsinki School of EconomicsLehtinen Erno (1), Vice Rector, University of HelsinkiProfessorUniversity of Turku FinnSight 2015_67
  • 72. Pyysiäinen Ilkka (5), Schmidt Tom (5), Managing Director Ura Pertti (2), Managing Director Academy Research Fellow, Docent SPC Tieyhtiö Nelostie Oy, Lappset Group Ltd Helsinki Collegium for Advanced SPC Tieyhtiö Ykköstie Oy Studies Uusitalo Hannu (5), Director, Professor Seppälä Jukka (9), Professor Finnish Centre for Pensions Ranta-Eskola Arto (9), Helsinki University of Technology Research and Development Manager Uusitalo Liisa (2), Professor Ruukki Production, Upgrading Strömberg Juhani (2), Vice President, Helsinki School of Economics Corporate Development Riihimäki Hilkka (3), Finland Post Corporation Valtari Kirsi (7), Production Manager Professor, Director of the Centre of Elisa Corporation Expertise for Health and Work Ability Suvanto Antti (10), Finnish Institute of Occupational Head of Department Vasara Petri (4), Principal Health Bank of Finland Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting Räikkönen Katri (3), Professor Tainio Risto (5), Professor Virkkunen Jaakko (1), Professor University of Helsinki Helsinki School of Economics University of Helsinki Saarma Mart (6), Director Tamminen Tuula (8), Professor, von Wright Atte (6), Professor University of Helsinki, Institute of Chief Medical Officer University of Kuopio Biotechnology University of Tampere and University Hospital of Tampere Ylä-Anttila Pekka (10), Salmi Tapani (3), Senior Physician, Research Director Specialist in Clinical Neurophysiology Tenkanen Tuomas (6), Director, R&D ETLA, Research Institute of Dept. Clinical Neurophysiology, Finnzymes the Finnish Economy University Hospital, Helsinki Toivonen Marja (2), Project Manager Ylänkö Maaria (10), Salminen Mika (5), Head of Unit Helsinki University of Technology University Lecturer National Public Health Institute University of Helsinki Tuomas Kerttu (1), Executive Vice Salo-Lee Liisa (8), Professor President, Human Resources University of Jyväskylä Kone Corporation Salovaara Anne (1), Managing Director Turpeinen Harri (4), Vice President AEL Neste Oil Corporation, Development and Laboratories Sams Mikko (7), Academy Professor Helsinki University of Technology Törhönen Lauri (2), Professor University of Art and Design Helsinki Sarvas Matti (6), Professor emeritus National Public Health Institute Törmä Päivi (9), Professor University of Jyväskylä Saviharju Kari (4), Director, Technology, Recovery Boiler Ullakko Kari (9), President Andritz AdaptaMat Ltd. Savolainen Ilkka (4), Research Uotila Minna (9), Professor The numbers in brackets refer to the Professor University of Lapland panel number. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland68_FinnSight 2015
  • 73. Layout: GREY PRO OyPrinted by Libris OyISBN 951-715-620-0
  • 74. FinnSight 2015: exploring the outlook for science, technology and society Foresighting is an increasingly important tool for decision-making by political and business leaders, public sector authorities and research organisations. This publication summarises the results of FinnSight 2015, a science and technology foresight project jointly undertaken by the Academy of Finland and the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes). The country’s leading science, business and social policy experts from both industry and academia got together to exchange views on how Finland can remain a well-being society and a world-leading innovator. The foresight project was organised around a core of ten expert panels: their discussions on current and projected changes in science, technology and society provided the foundation for the common future and focus areas of competence outlined in this summary report. www.finnsight2015.fiAcademy of Finland • Vilhonvuorenkatu 6 • PO Box 99, FI-00501 Helsinki Tel. +358 9 774 881 • Fax +358 9 7748 8299 • Tekes • Kyllikinportti 2 • PO Box 69, FI-00101 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 60 55000 • Fax +358 9 694 9196 • September 2006