2007 20 most_important_megatrends

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2007 20 most_important_megatrends

  1. 1. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E 0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S 04: WOMEN ON THE RISE 0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y 0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y 0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E 0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E ! 09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE 10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCEM E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0 12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY 13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS 14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD 1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S 16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL 1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S 1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N 19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER 2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y
  2. 2. M eg a t ren d s a re l o n g -t erm p ro cesses o f t ra n sf o rm a t i o n w i t h a b road scop e and a d ra m a t i c i m p a ct . T h ey a re co n si d ered t o b e p o w erf u l f a ct o rs w h ich shap e f ut ure markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends: T I M E H O RI Z O N M eg a t ren d s ca n b e o b serv ed o v er d eca d es. Q u a n t i t a t i v e, em p irically unam bi- g u o u s i n d i ca t o rs a re a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e p resen t . T h ey ca n b e p ro j e ct ed – w it h high p ro b a b i l i t i es – a t l ea st 1 5 y ea rs i n t o t h e f u t u re. RE A C H M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct co m p reh en si v el y o n a l l reg i o n s, a n d resu l t in m ult idim ensi- o n a l t ra n sf o rm a t i o n s o f a l l so ci et a l su b sy st em s, w h et h er i n p o l it ics, societ y, orTHE TREND TOWARDS eco n o m y. T h ei r p reci se f ea t u res v a ry a cco rd i n g t o t h e reg i o n i n q uest ion.M E G AT R E N D S INTENSITY OF IMPACT M eg a t ren d s i m p a ct p o w erf u l l y a n d ext en si v el y o n a l l a ct o rs, w het her it is go- v ern m en t s, i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h ei r co n su m p t i o n p a t t ern s, o r c orp orat ions and t h ei r st ra t eg i es. T h e t erm “ M eg a t ren d s” w a s co i n ed b y J o h n N a i sb i t t , w h o , 2 5 y e ars ago, p ublis- h ed a b o o k o f t h e sa m e t i t l e. “ M eg a t ren d s” p resen t ed 1 0 f a r-re aching develop - m en t s w h i ch p a i n t ed a p i ct u re o f o u r f u t u re a t t h e t u rn o f t h e m illennium . The b o o k b eca m e a b est sel l er a n d m a d e N a i sb i t t a t ra i l b l a z er f o r social and eco- n o m i c t ren d resea rch . W i t h h i n d si g h t , o n e h a s t o a ck n o w l ed g e graciously t hat h i s a n a l y ses d i d n o t l a ck t h e n ecessa ry v i si o n . H e co i n ed , e. g ., t he exp ression “ G l o b a l i sa t i o n ” , reco g n i sed ev ery i n d i v i d u a l ’ s i n crea si n g resp onsibilit y f or his o w n l i f e, en v i si o n ed t h e i n f o rm a t i o n a n d m u l t i -o p t i o n so ci et y, and realised how d ecen t ra l , n et w o rk i n g st ru ct u res w o u l d d o m i n a t e t h e n ew m i l l e nnium .
  3. 3. To d a y, m eg a t ren d s h a v e b eco m e a rel ev a n t st ra t eg i c i ssu e i n m any corp orat e h ea d qu a rt ers. S i em en s, t o n a m e a si g n i f i ca n t exa m p l e, h a s st ressed t he im p or- t a n ce o f m eg a t ren d s f o r i t s b u si n ess o n v a ri o u s o cca si o n s. D riv en by it s CEO, K l a u s K l ei n f el d , S i em en s h a s st a rt ed t o re-a l i g n i t s b u si n ess f i e lds f ocussing on t h e m eg a t ren d s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e a n d u rb a n i sa t i o n . O n l y re cent ly, Z_p unkt co o p era t ed w i t h S i em en s’ Co rp o ra t e S t ra t eg y d ep a rt m en t i n creat ing a corp orat e m a n a g em en t rep o rt o n t h e m eg a t ren d s cru ci a l f o r t h e co m p a n y. S o m e m eg a t ren d s, su ch a s d em o g ra p h i c ch a n g e, h ea l t h , o r m o bilit y, hav e f ound a p l a ce o n m a n y a g en d a s. E xp eri en ce a l so sh o w s, h o w ev er, t h a t businesses dif - f er i n t h ei r ev a l u a t i o n o f sp eci f i c m eg a t ren d s – t h ei r rel a t i v e st rat egic signif i- ca n ce b ei n g d et erm i n ed b y a co m p a n y ’ s f o cu s o n sp eci f i c m arket s, p roduct s,THE TREND TOWARDS a n d cu st o m ers. W i t h i t s n ew g l o b a l m a xi m “ T h e Co n su m er D ecides” , Nike is reco g n i si n g a m eg a t ren d w h i ch w e d escri b e a s a n ew p h a se o f i n dividualiz at ion.M E G AT R E N D S G en era l E l ect ri c, o n t h e o t h er h a n d , f o cu ses o n si m i l a r i ssu es as it s com p et it or S i em en s, sh o w ca sed b y i t s n ew “ E co m a g i n a t i o n ” a d v ert i si n g cam p aign. H o w ca n co m p a n i es crea t e v a l u e f ro m m eg a t ren d s? Va l u a b l e i n sight s w ill only b e g a i n ed i f i n f o rm a t i o n o n a m eg a t ren d i s t ra n sl a t ed i n t o a com p any’s very o w n co n t ext , a n d i n t o f u t u re i n n o v a t i o n f i el d s, m a rk et s, a n d p roduct s. Not t he t ren d a s su ch i s o f i n t erest , b u t i t s st ra t eg i c i m p l i ca t i o n s. I f y o u w ant t o p rep are y o u rsel f i n t i m e f o r t h e f u t u re m a rk et s em erg i n g f ro m m eg a t rends, Z_p unkt can o f f er a w i d e ra n g e o f t ri ed -a n d -t est ed , b u si n ess-sp eci f i c a p p roaches: Whet her i t ’ s l ect u res o r o n e-d a y i n h o u se w o rk sh o p s, i d en t i f i ca t i o n o f st rat egic innov at i- o n f i el d s o r n ew b u si n ess f i el d s.
  4. 4. M E G AT R E N D S01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE. In the West, ageing and shrinking populations. In the developing countries, a baby boom. Increasing migration streams. Demographic shifts
  5. 5. M E G AT R E N D S0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N REACHES A N E W S TA G E. Individualism, a global phenomenon. Changing relationship patterns: Few strong, many loose relationships. From mass markets to micro markets. Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics
  6. 6. M E G AT R E N D S0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S. Increasing health awareness and higher personal responsibility. Health tech – health style. New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically modified food, novel food). New converging markets (food, pharma- ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)
  7. 7. M E G AT R E N D S04: WOMEN ON THE RISE. Women are integrated into the working world. “Female” soft skills become more important. Participation as market actors: Defining influence on product and service standards. Work-life balance
  8. 8. M E G AT R E N D S0 5 : C U LT U R A L DIVERSITY. Plural ways of life between tradition and today. Value systems compete globally. Emergence of hybrid culture
  9. 9. M E G AT R E N D S0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S OF MOBILITY. Globally, mobility increases. Barriers to mobility increase. Transport infrastructures are upgraded/extended. New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies
  10. 10. M E G AT R E N D S0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E. Web 2.0: New media find their way into our everyday lives. Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real. Virtual business worlds
  11. 11. M E G AT R E N D S0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , LEARNING FROM N AT U R E. Biology becomes the leading science. Renaissance of bionics. Swarm intelligence: New forms of social organisation
  12. 12. M E G AT R E N D S09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE. IT-revolution continues. Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new surfaces. Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and robotics. Transparent society: Surveillance and control
  13. 13. M E G AT R E N D S10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE. Information and nanotechnology to be key drivers of convergence. Stimuli in many areas of application (medical science, energy, materials). NBIC-convergence
  14. 14. M E G AT R E N D S1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0. Shift to Asia and a new role for the West. Global strategies, customised to places and regions. Emergence of a global middle class. Globalised Flow of Capital
  15. 15. M E G AT R E N D S12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY. Education and learning as a basis. Innovation as a key driver and competition factor. New global knowledge elite – the creative class
  16. 16. M E G AT R E N D S13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS. Open systems and networks: Limits of industries, markets, and businesses dissolve. New value-adding chains (customer integra- tion, coopetition). Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new markets
  17. 17. M E G AT R E N D S14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD. Advances in automation (from the sector of production to the sectors of service and knowledge). Highly flexible working practices (anytime, anywhere). Flexible, interactive work structures
  18. 18. M E G AT R E N D S15: NEW CONSUMPTION P AT T E R N S. The Third World participates in economic wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid). Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia. Sustainable consumption in the West (LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)
  19. 19. M E G AT R E N D S1 6 : ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL. Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals). Use of alternative sources of energy and renewable resources. Revolution in energy efficiency. Decentralised energy supply
  20. 20. M E G AT R E N D S1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS. CO 2 -discharges and global rise of temperatures. Increase of environmental problems in emerging and developing countries. Clean technologies. Corporate responsibility increases
  21. 21. M E G AT R E N D S1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N. Megacities grow strongly. Development of adapted infrastructure solutions. New forms of residence, living, and participation
  22. 22. M E G AT R E N D S19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER. China and India join the ranks of world powers. Crisis of Western democracies. Russia’s renaissance. Africa awakes
  23. 23. M E G AT R E N D S2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L SECURITY. Global risk society. Festering cultural conflicts and failed states. Global terrorism. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
  24. 24. I f y o u a re i n t erest ed i n m eg a t ren d s, p l ea se co n t a ctC O N TA C T K l a u s B u rm ei st er, o u r M a n a g i n g D i rect o r ( b u rm ei st er@ z -p u n k t . de) , or H o l g er G l o ck n er, o u r D i rect o r Fo resi g h t Co n su l t i n g ( g l o ck n er@z - p unkt .de) .ABOUT Z_PUNKT Z _ p u n k t i s a co n su l t i n g f i rm f o r st ra t eg y a n d i n n o v a t i o n . We are exp ert s in Co rp o ra t e Fo resi g h t , i . e. , i n t ra n sl a t i n g t ren d a n d f u t u re resea r ch int o t he day- t o -d a y w o rk o f st ra t eg i c m a n a g em en t . S i n ce 1 9 9 7, w e h a v e been sup p ort ing b u si n esses a n d p u b l i c i n st i t u t i o n s i n Fo resi g h t Resea rch a n d Consult ing. Z _ p u n k t G m b H T h e Fo resi g h t Co m p a n y A n n a -S ch n ei d er-S t ei g 2 • Rh ei n a u h a f en 5 0 6 78 K ö l n 0 0 49 - ( 0 ) 2 2 1 - 3 5 5 5 3 4 - 0 h t t p : / / w w w. z -p u n k t . d e g l o ck n er@ z -p u n k t . d e w a t k i n s@ z -p u n k t . d e
  25. 25. 01: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E 0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S 04: WOMEN ON THE RISE 0 5 : C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y 0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y 0 7 : D I Berlin L I FCopyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Köln KarlsruheG I TA L 2008E S T Y L E 0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E ! 09: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE 10: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCEM E G AT R E N D S 1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0 12: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY 13: BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS 14: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD 1 5 : N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S 16: ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL 1 7 : C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S 1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N 19: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER Graphics and Design: www.infomationdesign.de 2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

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