Are there recession proof
Dec. 8, 2008
Ty A. Foren
Recession Proof Industries
Are they simple to identify ?
– Water Recession - [ri-sesh-uh n], from
– Waste - Water Recess
– Waste - Solids
• Health Care
Recess- [ri-ses, ree-ses]
• Govt. noun 1. temporary
withdrawal or cessation from the
– Police usual work or activity
The History of Recessions
We've had 12 recessions since 1940 and we're in the 12th one now. Recessions
are officially announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Here's their report.
National Bureau of Economic Research - http://www.nber.org/cycles/
• Only 2 of these recessions (11/73 to 3/75 and 7/81 to 11/82) lasted more than a
year, averaging 16 to 18 months, and both were global recessions. All the rest
were less than 1 year. Our current recession began in December 2007 and we're
already in the 12th month. Most experts are now projecting that our current
recession will bottom out in mid-2009, putting it at 16 to 17 months total.
So, when will we recover?
• Best case: If the current recession bottoms out in mid-2009 at -3% growth, and
we recover quickly as we did in the other two global recessions, we will be back
on track in early 2010.
• Worst case: If the current recession bottoms out in mid-2009 at -4% to -5%, and
we recover slowly as we did in 1992 and 2003, we will not be back on track until
The History of Recessions
“Back on track,quot; is referringto a time when employment growth exceeds the average growth. Notice howlongit
takes to recover & get back on track from the bottom of a recession. Recoveryseems to depend on howlongwe go
between recessions. When recessions are frequent, we recover in 8 to 10 months. When
recessions are less frequent, it takes up to 24 months. The recession of 1991 took 21
months to recover, and the recession of 2002 took 24 months. This would imply that our
recovery this time will be longer this time around.
Many Questions came to mind
• Someone s gottttttt to be hiring right?
– What industries do we target?
– Where (geography) do we job search?
What are the experts stating
WHAT INDUSTRIES -
Top 9 Recession-Proof Industries - by Kristen King on June 15th, 2008
• Computers / IT / Web Development If you have skills to help companies increase
efficiency & reduce costs using technology solutions, you re a hot commodity.
• Criminal Justice / Police / Security - Crime rates aren t going down as the economy comes
to a screeching halt.
• Education- There is ALWAYS a need for teachers. There are never enough teachers.
• Energy- Despite high travel costs, we still need oil & gas not just to get to work, but to run
our homes, bus. Electricity, alternative energy & especially areas of lower-cost energy will
never go away.
• Environment- Green building, green manufacturing, green everything is HUGE as we start
to realize the impact of our actions on the world around us.
• Health Care & Medicine- quot;Luxuriesquot; like cosmetic surgery may not be real growth areas
right now, but especially with the physical effects of economic stress, the medical field is in
no danger of slowing down. Physicians, nurses, assistants, and technicians- have improved
• International Business- Things may be tough in the US, but that doesn t mean they re bad
• Psychology / Counseling / Substance Abuse Treatment - As with medicine, psychological &
mental health fields remain in high demand, especially as people deal with the stressors of
• State and Federal Government - Even in a recession, the government has to keep operating.
Top 25 Careers to Pursue in a Recession - By HR World Editors
• Health Care: People will always get sick sometimes even more so when they don't
have the insurance or money to take preventative measures or eat healthy food.
• Energy: Consumers likely to cut back, they're not going to stop using energy. In fact, this
industry may grow, as companies look for more efficient ways to deliver energy.
• Education: There are always jobs for teachers. Kids will still go to school, and many out-
of-work adults may decide to continue their education.
• Utilities: It's safe to assume people are not going to stop lighting their homes. So utility
administration, maintenance & other related jobs should remain intact.
• International Business: Even when the economy is doing poorly in the U.S., other
countries may be doing well. So if you are involved in international business, you can
expect your career to stay safe.
• Public Safety: Police layoffs are very rare, especially when public safety is threatened by
desperate criminals. A public safety career is almost guaranteed to be secure.
• Funerals: People will get sick and continue to die as well, so as morbid as it is, morticians
will always have customers.
• Accounting: Death and taxes are a sure thing. In a recession, people & companies are
likely to get desperate for more deductions and look hard at their books.
• Federal Government: Most federal-gov. jobs end only when workers retire. Additionally,
government services tend to step-up in times of recession, so your chances of getting and
keeping a government job are good.
• Pharmaceuticals: As long as doctors prescribe them, people are still going to take drugs.
So pharmacist, pharmacy counter or in the lab, you can rest easy.
• Sales: As a general rule, anyone who is a source of income for a company will be safe, so
salespeople especially in recession-proof industries have little to worry about.
WHAT INDUSTRIES -
Top 25 Careers to Pursue in a Recession -- By HR World Editors
• Gambling: When times get tough, people seek an outlet. One of those outlets is
gambling, because it offers a chance to turn financial troubles around.
• Alcohol: Alcohol is another outlet for troubled times, so distributors & manufacturers in
this industry will continue to thrive.
• Politics: Even in a recession, public officials are still around earning tidy sums, which are
often tied to the cost of living.
• Skilled Services: Hair will always grow, & drains will always clog, so you can expect
steady work in skilled services like plumbing and hairstyling.
• Debt Management: Recessions mean crunch time for debtors, they ll need guidance.
• Consulting: Recessions are crunch times for companies as well, & they're likely to bring
in consultants for advice on efficiency.
• Bankruptcy Law: It's true: As companies & individuals go bankrupt, they'll need a
• Government Contracting: Despite money troubles, roads must be maintained & schools
must be built.
• Military: The military is always hiring, especially during wartime. Also, most of your
living expenses are covered, so cost-of-living expenses are not really a concern.
• Food: People need food to survive, it's not likely that anyone is going to just stop eating
no matter how bad the economy gets.
• Beauty, Health and Erotic Services: Regardless of a recession, people who enjoy being
pampered will seldom give up the simple pleasures in life.
• Debt Collection: As budgets get squeezed, people will fall behind on payments, and
companies will look to debt collectors to recoup their costs.
• Ultraluxury Items: If you're in a business that caters to the ultra rich, you can expect to
be safe, as this type of consumer is likely to have measures in place to weather the
WHAT INDUSTRIES -
Top 1000 projections to 2016- http://jobbait.com/a/rpi.htm
WHAT INDUSTRIES- Rank order
If we know which industries,
•Is there a geographical
preference for our chosen
•What's best in Wisconsin
Recession-Proof Cities (Metropolitan Areas)
• To date, 6 cities are recession-proof, and another 29 are
almost recession-proof as of 11/23/08.
• Please note this list is getting smaller over time. Three years
ago there were 78. As the 2008 economy continues to decline,
some cities are setting newrecord lows and falling off this list.
• To be quot; recession-proof,quot; an area must have grown faster than
the average population growth since 1990, and during the
recessions that ended in 1991 and 2002, and today.
• To be almost recession-proof, it must have grown in all
periods (green or grey).
Employment Trends- The maps below shows the employment trends by state and
industry for the 12-month period ending October 2008. (November data will be released
the end of December, in case you're wondering.) Green is growing faster than the long-term average average
rates, Grey is growing slower and Red is declining. White is not available.
Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing
Professional & Business Services Education Healthcare & Social Assistance
Leisure & Hospitality Other (Auto repair, laundry, etc.) Government
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing
Utilities Information Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Green denotes growing faster than population growth and grey denotes growing slowly.
All data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
State Area 90-08 1991 2002 2008 Jobs Employed
Alaska Anchorage, AK 40% 0.8% 2.6% 0.7% 1,200 170,000
California Merced, CA 34% 6.8% 4.7% 1.7% 1,000 60,400
Colorado Grand Junction, CO 90% 2.3% 2.8% 3.9% 2,500 66,600
Colorado Greeley, CO 77% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 900 84,900
Idaho Coeur d'Alene, ID 133% 8.7% 3.4% 0.5% 300 58,900
The table shows Illinois
Louisiana Alexandria, LA 31% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0 65,800
the employment Louisiana
Baton Rouge, LA
Lake Charles, LA
Maryland Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV 44% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 800 103,300
growth rates for Minnesota
St. Cloud, MN
Missouri Columbia, MO 52% 2.3% 2.6% 0.1% 100 95,300
35 metropolitan Montana
North Carolina Asheville, NC 38% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0 180,900
areas (out of 351) North Dakota
Pennsylvania State College, PA 26% 2.9% 1.5% 1.2% 900 77,800
from 1990 - 2008. Texas
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX
Texas Laredo, TX 94% 7.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2,800 89,200
Texas Odessa, TX 47% 4.5% 1.4% 2.1% 1,300 62,100
Texas Tyler, TX 50% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1,000 94,900
Virginia Harrisonburg, VA 49% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 1,200 66,000
Washington Bellingham, WA 56% 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 400 87,000
Washington Bremerton-Silverdale, WA 33% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0 87,100
Washington Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA 51% 2.0% 3.4% 2.4% 2,200 95,700
Washington Olympia, WA 58% 3.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1,700 104,500
West Virginia Charleston, WV 24% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 200 150,700
West Virginia Morgantown, WV 47% 2.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1,500 64,400
HEY WHERE THE HECK IS WISCONSIN…. ???