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Road userbehaviourseminarjanuary2012

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Presentation for road user behaviour seminar January 2012

Presentation for road user behaviour seminar January 2012


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  • 1. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Motorcyclists Paul Hewson paul.hewson@plymouth.ac.uk 10th January 2012
  • 2. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
  • 3. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Headline figures For Engand 2009 (latest RRCGB) ˆ Deaths: 402 ˆ Serious: 4,809 ˆ Slight: 13,824 (add 86 deaths for Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland)
  • 4. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions 1800 1600 1400 1200 Bike fatalities Killed 1000 800 600 400 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
  • 5. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions 1800 1600 Bike fatalities and ownership 1500 1400 1200 Killed 1000 1000 800 500 600 400 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
  • 6. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Global Problem ˆ Around 1.2 million deaths due to road collisions globally (mainly in developing world where motorcycles are relatively more common) ˆ In post-industrial countries, typically 1-2% of traffic, 15-25% of fatalities
  • 7. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Global solutions ˆ Helmets (compulsory in UK) ˆ Pre-licence training (minimal training now compulsory in UK) ˆ Post licence training not linked with licensing - no idea of popularity (estimated in US that around 1 in 4 P2W users have attended some kind of training)
  • 8. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Hierarchy of Evidence ˆ Systematic review ˆ Literature review ˆ Randomised controlled trial ˆ Case controlled study ˆ Cohort study ˆ Cross sectional study ˆ Anecdote
  • 9. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Cochrane Review ˆ High standards of critical review ˆ Produce a “live” document ˆ Good place to start ˆ We will review one in the workshop ˆ Is there any evidence that training interventions reduce PTW casualties?
  • 10. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Data modelling ˆ Overlapping idea - what is the evidence that age/experience are beneficial
  • 11. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions The Daily Telegraph 22/10/200 Born-again bikers who are riding for a fall By David Bamber, Home Affairs Correspondent POLICE have identified an increasing risk on the roads from affluent middle-aged men attempting to recapture their lost youth by riding powerful motorbikes. Nicknamed “Bambis” by traffic police - born-again middle-aged bikers - they have inspired the Association of Chief Police Officers to launch a campaign to encourage bike dealers to ensure that their middle-aged customers get the training they need to meet the challenge that newer bikes pose. Chief Insp David Short of North Yorkshire traffic police, whose research led to the current campaign, said: “Many of them used to ride bikes years ago but they don’t seem to realise that bikes have advanced so much over the past 20 years that today’s machines bear little resemblance to what they were used to. They return to biking with a little more money in their pockets and buy bikes that are actually very similar to performance bikes used in racing. They simply go too fast, lose control and hit something.”
  • 12. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Before we zoom in a little Fatal casualties 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Male Male 80−89 90−99 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 60−69 70−79 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 40−49 50−59 80 60 Freq 40 20 0 Male Male 20−29 30−39 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 0−9 10−19 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
  • 13. 0Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Male Male 40−49 50−59 80 60 Freq 40 20 0 Male Male 20−29 30−39 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 0−9 10−19 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 biker.year
  • 14. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions But let’s aggregate the data in a different way Fatal casualties 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Male Male 1880 1890 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 1900 1910 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 1920 1930 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 1940 1950 80 60 Freq 40 20 0 Male Male 1960 1970 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 1980 1990 80 60 40 20 0 Male 2000 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
  • 15. 40Outline Overview 20 What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions 0 Male Male 1940 1950 80 60 Freq 40 20 0 Male Male 1960 1970 80 60 40 20 0 Male Male 1980 1990 80 60 40 20 0 Male 2000 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 biker.year
  • 16. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions What is this saying ˆ Data from STATs19 via Data Archive for 1985-2009 ˆ All Motorcycle casualties ˆ Each cohort has a similar shape (high risk as 16/17 year olds, rapid decline in injuries) but then appears to show constant injury count) ˆ We don’t want to analyse tea-leaves BUT it’s hard to reconcile this with BAMBIs. ˆ It is easier to reconcile this with individual cohorts having different numbers of potential riders. What we see in a given year reflects the mix of cohorts in a given year.
  • 17. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Power and Risk ˆ Mattson and Summala (2010): evidence that more powerful bikes are always higher risk bikes ˆ Obvious comment on EU restrictions on bike power ˆ Our own work (Rolison et al. unpublished) also indicative that large bikes are always more dangerous
  • 18. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Summary ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was effective (yes, “more research needed”)
  • 19. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Summary ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was effective (yes, “more research needed”) ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking in formative years and size of cohort.
  • 20. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Summary ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was effective (yes, “more research needed”) ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking in formative years and size of cohort. ˆ Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large” bikes are always relatively more dangerous
  • 21. Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Summary ˆ Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training was effective (yes, “more research needed”) ˆ Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests the pattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of biking in formative years and size of cohort. ˆ Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large” bikes are always relatively more dangerous ˆ Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’t mitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people think we can)