Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District October 25, 2011 2010-2011 Drought
Texas Annual Rainfall
Notice Any Trends?
Texas Climate Trends <ul><li>Drier winter and spring seasons since 1950 </li></ul><ul><li>Wetter summer and fall seasons s...
2010 Texas Rainfall
2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET
2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)
2011 Drought Conditions
2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 53 (42 in 1998) Hu...
2011 Drought Conditions  Lake Levels and Capacity Oct 21 Lake Conroe: -6.86 (71%) Lake Houston: -5.60 (74%) Lake Livingsto...
Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB                                                                                     ...
2011 Drought Conditions March 30 October 19 Mandatory: 636 Voluntary: 311 Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34
Texas Wildfires  <ul><li>11/15/2010-10/19/2011 </li></ul><ul><li>3.8 million  acres burned </li></ul><ul><li>24,279 fires ...
Texas Wildfires – Labor Day Weekend  Bastrop Complex: 34,036 acres 2 fatalities 1554 homes lost 5,000 evacuated 1351 groun...
Texas Burn Ban Map 229 out of 254 counties under burn bans, old record was 221 in 2006
Fall Fire Weather Conditions <ul><li>Low RH (20-30%) </li></ul><ul><li>Strong Winds (15-25mph) </li></ul><ul><li>Critical ...
October 9, 2011 Rainfall Location Rainfall: 1-1-11 to  10-8-11 Rainfall  10-9-11 New Yearly Total % 2011 Yearly Total on 1...
2010-2011 Drought Top 5 Driest Feb-Oct 24 Periods for Houston:  2011 – 10.23 in (22.6% of normal) 1917 – 14.25 in 1930 - 1...
2010-2011 Drought Driest 12-Month Period Ever (September 30, 2010 to October 1, 2011) Red: broke previous record by over 1...
2010-2011 Drought Bellville: -29.09 Brenham: -29.70 College Station: -27.10 Columbus: -29.05 Conroe: -33.00 Freeport: -33....
2010-2011 Drought 2011 Driest water year on record for Texas
2010-2011 Drought <ul><li>2 nd  worst in SE TX based on rainfall behind 1917-1918 (likely worst in some areas)  </li></ul>...
2010-2011 Drought Most areas would require 25-35 inches of rainfall to bring them to near normal conditions and end the dr...
2011-2013 ENSO Forecast Models La Nina El Nino Neutral
La Nina Impacts
La Nina Impacts
2011 Drought Forecast
Rainfall Forecast 8-14 days 1 month 3 months
Questions
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Texas Drought PowerPoint presentation 10-25-2011

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Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
October 25, 2011

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Texas Drought PowerPoint presentation 10-25-2011

  1. 1. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District October 25, 2011 2010-2011 Drought
  2. 2. Texas Annual Rainfall
  3. 3. Notice Any Trends?
  4. 4. Texas Climate Trends <ul><li>Drier winter and spring seasons since 1950 </li></ul><ul><li>Wetter summer and fall seasons since 1960 </li></ul><ul><li>Overall Texas annual rainfall has been greater since 1960 compared </li></ul><ul><li>1895-1960 </li></ul><ul><li>Drought was much more common, long term, and severe pre 1960 </li></ul><ul><li>Annual temperatures have been above average since 1996 </li></ul>
  5. 5. 2010 Texas Rainfall
  6. 6. 2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET
  7. 7. 2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)
  8. 8. 2011 Drought Conditions
  9. 9. 2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 53 (42 in 1998) Huntsville: 72 (43 in 1980) College Station: 69 (58 in 1917) Dallas: 71 (69 in 1980) Waco: 90 (63 in 1980) Austin Mabry: 90 (69 in 1925) San Antonio: 57 (59 in 2009) Del Rio: 85 (78 in 1953) Most Consecutive 100 degree days: Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980) Austin: 27 (21 in 2001) Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980) Waco: 44 (42 in 1980) <ul><li>Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on 8-27-11 </li></ul><ul><li>Galveston: 100 on 8-27-11 for only the 7 th time ever </li></ul><ul><li>Hottest June-August (summer) period ever! </li></ul>Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever: July 2011: 87.2 July 1998: 86.5 July 1980: 86.3 August 1952: 85.7
  10. 10. 2011 Drought Conditions Lake Levels and Capacity Oct 21 Lake Conroe: -6.86 (71%) Lake Houston: -5.60 (74%) Lake Livingston: -4.00 (83%) Lake Somerville: -10.03 (39%) Lake Texana: -11.59 (44%) Lake Buchanan: -28.45 (41%) Lake Travis: -52.86 (36%) Lake Georgetown: -25.36 (34%) Toledo Bend: -11.90 (59%) Sam Rayburn: -13.14 (56%) Lake Houston Lake Travis Lake Travis
  11. 11. Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB                                                                                                                                                                                <>
  12. 12. 2011 Drought Conditions March 30 October 19 Mandatory: 636 Voluntary: 311 Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34
  13. 13. Texas Wildfires <ul><li>11/15/2010-10/19/2011 </li></ul><ul><li>3.8 million acres burned </li></ul><ul><li>24,279 fires </li></ul><ul><li>51,617 structures threatened </li></ul><ul><li>7,223 structures burned </li></ul><ul><li>49 states responding </li></ul><ul><li>175 million acre ft of timber destroyed worth 1.6 billion </li></ul>April 2011 4 out of the 10 largest TX fires occurred in April 2011
  14. 14. Texas Wildfires – Labor Day Weekend Bastrop Complex: 34,036 acres 2 fatalities 1554 homes lost 5,000 evacuated 1351 ground personnel, 14 aircraft Tri-County: 18,638 acres 63 homes lost (23 damaged) 8,000 evacuated 698 ground personnel, 16 aircraft 20.8 million acre feet of timber burned (12.8 million in value) 12 large fires, Labor Day 2011 Over 2,000 homes lost in 3-4 days
  15. 15. Texas Burn Ban Map 229 out of 254 counties under burn bans, old record was 221 in 2006
  16. 16. Fall Fire Weather Conditions <ul><li>Low RH (20-30%) </li></ul><ul><li>Strong Winds (15-25mph) </li></ul><ul><li>Critical days behind cold fronts </li></ul><ul><li>Conditions will worsen after first freeze </li></ul><ul><li>Pine areas most risk </li></ul><ul><li>Threat for wind driven crown fires </li></ul>Steiner Ranch
  17. 17. October 9, 2011 Rainfall Location Rainfall: 1-1-11 to 10-8-11 Rainfall 10-9-11 New Yearly Total % 2011 Yearly Total on 10-9-11 940: Lt Vince Bayou at Jackson 9.24 6.92 16.16 43% 920: Vince Bayou at W Ellaine 10.52 6.88 17.40 40% 320: Berry Bayou at Forest Oaks 11.44 6.36 17.80 36% 310: Berry Bayou at Nevada 11.56 5.84 17.40 34% 240: Armand Bayou at Beltway 8 9.52 5.00 14.52 34% 610: Taylor Bayou at Shoreacres 12.16 5.80 17.96 32% 620: Lt Cedar Bayou at 8 th St 12.0 5.64 17.64 32% 640: HCFCD F101 at Sens Rd 10.8 4.52 15.32 30% 230: Big Island at Fairmont 13.0 4.28 17.28 25% 270: Willow/Springs at Fairmont 11.72 4.64 16.36 28% 125: Chigger Creek at Windsong 11.32 4.88 16.20 30% 1070: Spring Creek at SH 249 10.84 3.20 14.04 23% 550: White Oak at Lakeview 11.32 4.44 15.76 28% 2210: Buffalo at Turning Basin 13.0 5.68 18.68 30%
  18. 18. 2010-2011 Drought Top 5 Driest Feb-Oct 24 Periods for Houston: 2011 – 10.23 in (22.6% of normal) 1917 – 14.25 in 1930 - 15.89 in 1956 – 15.95 in 1925 – 16.69 in Top 5 Driest Jan 1-Oct 24 Periods for Houston: 1917-15.28 in 2011-15.27 in 1988- 20.71 in 1948 – 21.94 in 1901 – 22.21 in 1.1950-1957 (Sept 1956 peak) 2. 2010-? 3. 1916-1918 (Aug 1918 peak) 4. 1924-1925 (July 1925 peak) 5. 1999-2000 (Sept 2000 peak Texas Drought Rankings 4.02 inches of rain required at IAH to move to second place and .76 inches at Hobby (5.11 fell at Hobby on Oct 9…still in first place) Drought Lowest PDSI 2010-2011 -7.97 AUG 2011 1951-1957 -7.80 SEP 1956 1916-1918 -7.09 AUG 1918 1924-1925 -6.10 JUL 1925 1999-2000 -5.51 SEP 2000
  19. 19. 2010-2011 Drought Driest 12-Month Period Ever (September 30, 2010 to October 1, 2011) Red: broke previous record by over 10 inches Orange: broke previous record by over 5 inches Location Rainfall (in) (9-22-10 to 9-23-11) Previous Rainfall Record (in) Record Exceedance (in) Bellville 12.75 19.90 (1987-88) 7.15 Brenham 16.10 13.76 (1924-25) 2.34 Columbus 14.84 17.57 (1955-56) 2.73 Conroe 17.42 22.51 (1924-25) 5.09 Freeport 17.98 24.77 (1953-54) 6.79 BUSH IAH 17.71 23.25 (1916-17) 5.54 Huntsville 15.31 18.09 (1916-17) 2.78 Katy 14.67 27.31 (1987-88) 12.64 Livingston 17.77 31.35 (1947-48) 13.58 Somerville 14.83 19.77 (1970-71) 4.94 Tomball 12.44 22.15 (1960-61) 9.71 Wash on the Brazos 14.52 24.44 (1955-56) 9.92
  20. 20. 2010-2011 Drought Bellville: -29.09 Brenham: -29.70 College Station: -27.10 Columbus: -29.05 Conroe: -33.00 Freeport: -33.00 Hobby: -29.89 IAH: -30.94 Katy: -27.44 Livingston: -34.88 Matagorda: -29.93 Huntsville: -33.59 Victoria: -28.51 Tomball: -38.43 Rainfall Deficits (Oct 1 2010 to Oct 24 2011) Galveston: -43.07 Houston IAH: -31.09 Houston Hobby: -35.06 College Station: -31.10 Richmond: -38.51 Bay City: -36.74 Wharton: -34.46 Livingston: -43.28 Rainfall Deficits since Hurricane Ike Have been in mild drought since Ike, but the last 8 months have been brutal October 2010 to September 2011: Driest 1-year period ever for state of TX
  21. 21. 2010-2011 Drought 2011 Driest water year on record for Texas
  22. 22. 2010-2011 Drought <ul><li>2 nd worst in SE TX based on rainfall behind 1917-1918 (likely worst in some areas) </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1950’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Driest April ever at Houston (.11 of an inch), driest Spring ever for Houston </li></ul><ul><li>Driest year to date ever for the City of Houston </li></ul><ul><li>At least 5.1 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed </li></ul><ul><li>Hay no longer available for cattle </li></ul><ul><li>Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2.1 million trees lost, estimate 66 million in two years (10% of area canopy) </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. 2010-2011 Drought Most areas would require 25-35 inches of rainfall to bring them to near normal conditions and end the drought
  24. 24. 2011-2013 ENSO Forecast Models La Nina El Nino Neutral
  25. 25. La Nina Impacts
  26. 26. La Nina Impacts
  27. 27. 2011 Drought Forecast
  28. 28. Rainfall Forecast 8-14 days 1 month 3 months
  29. 29. Questions

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