Historical Texas Drought Update

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Texas Water Conservation Association powerpoint from presentation by Bob Rose, LCRA Meteorologist. 10/14/2011

www.twca.org

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Historical Texas Drought Update

  1. 1. Historical TexasDrought Update TWCA Fall Conference October 14, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Meteorologist
  2. 2. Worst Drought in Texas History“Texas has experienced its most severe one-year drought on record” John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist. Driest October-September on record with 7.18 inches. Normal is 14.94. Record low was 7.35 inches Oct 1901-Sep 1902.
  3. 3. Worst Drought in Texas History “Texas has experienced its most severe one-year drought on record” John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist.Hottest June, July and August on record. August was the hottest month ever recorded with an average temperature of 88.1 degrees, beating July 2011with 87.1 degrees. Hottest month for any state ever in the US!
  4. 4. Texas Rainfall, Oct.-Sep.7.35 in. 7.18 in.
  5. 5. Rainfall Oct 2010-Sep 2011
  6. 6. Rainfall Departure from NormalOctober 2010-September 2011
  7. 7. Record Low Palmer Drought Index -7.80 -7.97
  8. 8. The 2011 Drought in Historical Context 1789, -5.14 -4.88 Lowest Most Persistent -5.37
  9. 9. Soil Moisture Anomaly
  10. 10. Unprecedented Summer Heat!!!
  11. 11. Temperature Departure from Normal, 6/1-8/31
  12. 12. Record Setting Summer Heat• Many cities recorded their hottest June, July and August on record.• Dozens of Texas cities recorded their longest stretch of consecutive 100- degree days.• A multitude of Texas cities recorded a record number of 100-degree days.• Second hottest summer on record for any state in any year.
  13. 13. Rainfall, October 7-9
  14. 14. Percent Area of Texas inDrought, Jan 2001-Sep 2011
  15. 15. Going into Second Year of La Niña January 6th October 13th
  16. 16. Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña
  17. 17. Trending Back into La Niña El Niño La Niña
  18. 18. Dry Wet
  19. 19. Temperature Precipitation
  20. 20. NWS Winter into Spring Rainfall Outlook
  21. 21. Drought Outlook through December
  22. 22. Jan-Mar Anomalies Based on 2nd Year La Niña
  23. 23. Apr-May Anomalies Based on 2nd Year La Niña
  24. 24. Ending Drought in 1 Month
  25. 25. Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months
  26. 26. Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  27. 27. Similar Conditions to the 1950s?
  28. 28. The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season
  29. 29. An Active Season, but Not for Texas
  30. 30. Historical Hurricane Tracks after September 24th
  31. 31. Take Home Points• No clear end in sight to the ongoing drought; could last well into 2012.• Scattered rains possible this fall but not heavy enough to temper the drought.• Intense droughts are hard to break.• Tropical storms rains not likely.• La Niña is back. Late fall and winter expected to be drier than normal.• Dry years interspersed with wet years.
  32. 32. Bob RoseMeteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org 512-473-3350

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