ERCOT - Texas Water Conservation Association
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Trip Doggett - Presentation at TWCA annual conference 2012

Trip Doggett - Presentation at TWCA annual conference 2012

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ERCOT - Texas Water Conservation Association Presentation Transcript

  • 1. ERCOT OVERVIEWTEXAS WATER CONSERVATION ASSOCIATIONMARCH 9, 2012Trip DoggettPresident & CEOERCOT
  • 2. CONTENTS • What is ERCOT? – ERCOT as a North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) interconnect – ERCOT as an Independent System Operator • Challenges g – Demand Growth – Resource Adequacy –DDrought ht • Options 2 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 3. ERCOTThe ERCOT Region: ERCOT Inc.:The interconnected electrical system serving A non-profit corporation designated themost of Texas, with limited external “Independent Organization” under state lawconnections and assigned these responsibilities [Texas• 75% of Texas land; 85% of Texas load Public Utilit Regulatory A t (PURA) 39.151]: P bli Utility R l t Act 39 151]• More than 40,000 miles of transmission lines • Maintaining System Reliability• 550+ generation units • Ensuring Open Access to Transmission• 68,294 MW peak demand (set August 3, 2011) • Facilitating the Competitive Wholesale Market • Facilitating the Competitive Retail Market Regulatory Characteristics: • ERCOT is regulated by the Texas Public Utility Commission with oversight by the Texas Legislature • ERCOT is not a market participant and does not own generation or transmission/distribution wires TWCA 3/9/12 3
  • 4. ERCOT AS INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR ERCOT IS ONE OF 10 NORTH AMERICAN ISOS/RTOS • ISOs/RTOs serve 67% of U.S. population • Goal: Reliability, y, Efficiency, Transparency & Impartiality 4 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 5. PRE-2002 Every utility was vertically integrated, E tilit ti ll i t t d from generation to customer service. Integrated electric utility Customer 5 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 6. TEXAS COMPETITIVE MODEL Generation T&D (“Wires”) Retailers End Users REP REPCompetitive Regulated Competitive SalesProduction Open Access 6 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 7. ELECTRIC GRID OPERATIONS ERCOT ‘directs traffic’ on the grid to maintain reliability and ensure supply of electricity: • Coordinates scheduling of power by market participants • Analyzes grid conditions continuously in real-time • Dispatches generation to ensure power production matches load at all times • Secures available generation capacity to meet reliability requirements including contingencies • Coordinates planned outages of generators and transmission lines • Relieves transmission system congestion • Coordinates emergency actions & recovery • Operates markets to meet regional energy & capacity requirements not met through bilateral arrangements 7 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 8. ERCOT CAPACITY AND ENERGY BY FUEL TYPE Installed Capacity, January 2012 Energy Produced, 2011 ~ 80 000 MW 80,000 335 billion kil billi kilowatt-hours tt h 8 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 9. CHALLENGES
  • 10. NEW RECORDS IN USAGE New Peak Demand Record: 68 379 megawatts 68,379  68,379 megawatts (MW), Aug. 3, 2011  The 2010 peak demand – 65,776 MW, Aug. 23, 2010 – was broken 3 consecutive days: - Aug. 1, 2011 66,867 MW g , , - Aug. 2, 2011 67,929 MW - Aug. 3, 2011 68,379 MW New Weekend Record  65,159 MW, Sunday, Aug. 28 - 5 percent increase over 2010 previous record – 62,320 MW Winter Peak Record  57 282 MW (February 10 2011) 57,282 10, - 3 percent increase over 2010 previous record - 55,878 MW Wind Record  A new instantaneous wind record of 7,599 MW occurred on March 7 at 20:41. 10 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 11. CREZ 11 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 12. RESERVE MARGINS: PROJECTING ADEQUACY OF SUPPLY • Target reserve margin for the ERCOT Region is 13.75% • Defined as: – Percentage difference between available generating capacity and forecasted peak system load • Ensures (but does not guarantee) adequate electric supply will be available in case of contingency need – Unexpected weather extremes or loss of major generation units • Available capacity includes: – Gas, coal and nuclear fuel units accounted at their season operating limit level (unless scheduled to retire or mothball) – Hydro plants and wind farms at their “high confidence summer peak” level – Planned units (with signed transmission interconnection agreements and required permits) – Loads Acting as Resources - Large customers registered and bidding to provide capacity services in market-based load participation programs – DC Ties - capacity that can be imported through DC links from p y p g neighboring grids 12 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 13. DECEMBER 2011 CAPACITY, DEMAND AND RESERVES (CDR) REPORT 25.00% Installed Capacity Planned Units Uncommitted Projects 13.75% Target 20.00% 20 00% As of January 2012, reserve margin at Reserve margin target 13.75% 13.86% due to CSAPR stay 15.00% 15 00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 14. 2012 CDR – LOAD FORECAST • U d t d economic forecast from Moody’s Updated i f tf M d ’ – Slower growth in near-term • Updated assessment of normal weather profile 100,000 95,000 12,000 90,000 11,000 85,000 mployment (x000) emand (MW) 80,000 10,000 75,000 Non‐Farm Em Peak De 70,000 9,000 65,000 60,000 8,000 55,000 50,000 7,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 Peak Demand Forecast 2012 Peak Demand Forecast 2011 Non‐Farm Employment  Forecast 2012 Non‐Farm Employment  Forecast 14 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 15. SUMMER PEAK SCENARIOS Normal Weather – 63,898 MW 15 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 16. GENERATION OUTAGES: 08/01 – 08/07 16 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 17. DROUGHT
  • 18. THE 2011 TEXAS DROUGHT Excerpts from Oct 2011 Report by Office of State Climatologist: • Large portion of Texas will likely endure a second summer of drought. • 2011-12 La Niña is forecasted to be less intense than 2010-11. • It is impossible to determine at this point whether the drought will last beyond a g y second year. – On rare occasions in the past, La Niña conditions were observed for 3 consecutive years. • Texas precipitation is also influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation & Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. – During the past decade, both patterns have been in an unfavorable state. • Global patterns tend to reverse themselves over time, possibly leading to an extended period of wetter weather for Texas, though this may not happen for another 3-15 years. 18 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 19. SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES AT 10 YEAR LOWS (OCT 2011) 19 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 20. ERCOT ACTIONS TO MANAGE DROUGHT IMPACT • Surveyed generation entities in the state and reviewed drought concerns and possible mitigations • Identified surface water most impacted and projected impacts to generation for 2012 • Reviewed public sources regarding state and regional water plans • Met with TCEQ staff and drought response teams • Facilitated a workshop with generation and transmission entities to share best practices relevant to drought conditions 20 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 21. MANAGING DROUGHT IMPACT – GENERATION SECTOR ACTIONS INCLUDE … • Generators are designed to – Conserve – minimize water usage – Reuse – Reuse water from one process for another – Recycle – Return clean water to the source after usage • Generators regularly account for all water withdrawn to regulatory authorities • Many generators utilize salt water or effluent, where practical • Generators regularly maintain equipment to avoid water leakage/wastage • A couple of generators have installed pipelines t access accumulated l f t h i t ll d i li to l t d (from rain & seepage) water at mine sites • Some generator resources are re-engineering their water intake structures to ll t allow f deeper i t k level conditions for d intake l l diti 21 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 22. MANAGING DROUGHT IMPACT – TRANSMISSION SECTOR CONCERNS INCLUDE … • Increased insulator contamination incidents (salt, smoke, bird excrement, etc.) • Fires, smoke implications, vegetation management, and risks to wooden h-frame infrastructure • Potential issues associated with transmission system planning if there are significant generator de-rations • Coordination with the local authorities (police, fire, etc.) requesting de-energizing of transmission facilities for safety to allow for aerial firefighting. 22 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 23. DROUGHT CONCLUSIONS • Persistent drought conditions are impacting electric generation resources, but are unlikely to cause significant generation shortfalls i 2012 ti h tf ll in • If the drought continues into 2013, consequences to electric generation availability are likely t b ti il bilit lik l to become more severe • ERCOT will continue to analyze survey results and will continue to keep regulatory authorities well-informed ti t k l t th iti ll i f d 23 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 24. OPTIONS FOR HANDING THESE CHALLENGES
  • 25. SUMMER PEAK DAY LOAD SHAPE WITH FUEL MIX August 3, 2011 August 3, 2011 Natural Gas Wind Nuclear Hydro Other DC Imports Coal Energy Price 80,000 $3,500 $3001 70,000 $3,000 60,000 $2,500 50,000 Natural GasMW $2,000 $/MWh 40,000 $1,500 30,000 Wind $1,000 Nuclear 20,000 DC Imports $500 10,000 Coal $25 - $75 0 $0 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 25 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 26. OFF-PEAK VS. ON-PEAK LOAD BY CUSTOMER TYPE Wed., Aug. 3, 2011 5:00 PM ERCOT Load: 68,416 MW Temperature Dallas: Temperat re in Dallas 109° Wednesday March 9, 2011 Residential 5:15 PM 51.2% ERCOT Load: 31,262 MW Temperature in Dallas: 64° 64 (~35,000 ( 35 000 MW) Residential 27.4% (~8,500 MW) Small Commercial 25.2% • Customer class breakdown is for Small Commercial competitive choice 28.9% areas; p ; percentages are g extrapolated for munis Large C&I and co-ops to achieve Large C&I 23.7% region-wide estimate 43.7% • Large C&I are IDR Meter Required (>700kW) 3/9/2011 IE 17:15 8/3/2011 IE 17:00 26 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 27. EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICE • Emergency Interruptible Load Service is transitioning to ERS – PUC Rule and ERCOT Protocol revisions in process – June 1 effective date for new provisions p • Service provided by electricity customers willing to reduce load or unregistered generators willing to supply energy during grid emergencies in exchange for payment g g p y • An additional tool for ERCOT Operations to manage grid reliability, deployed only in declared emergencies (EEA) – Designed to help avoid rotating blackouts • ERS Resources may be individual or aggregated loads or unregistered generators • Procured 24/7/365 – Not just a peak reduction program – Offers may vary by Time Period (different business & non-business hour bl k ) h blocks) 27 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 28. EMERGENCY RESPONSE SERVICE • Qualifications/requirements: – Relationship with QSE that can receive Verbal Dispatch Instruction over the ERCOT Hotline – 15-minute interval metering – Capability reducing load or providing generation – minimum obligation of 100 kW -- within 10 minutes of ERCOT dispatch • Payment to EILS Resources is subject to contractual agreement between the QSE and the EILS resource owner • Participants are paid as bid if procured as-bid • Historically, reservation payments have ranged from approximately $6 to $11 per MW per Hour • 430 MW under contract d i d t t during 2011 summer peak h k hours – For 2012, estimating between 560 and 630 MW for peak 28 TWCA 3/9/12
  • 29. FOLLOW ERCOT Facebook: Electric Reliability Council of Texas Twitter: p _ http://twitter.com/ercot_iso 29 TWCA 3/9/12