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AWBD January 26th 2013 - Harris-Galveston Subsidence District
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AWBD January 26th 2013 - Harris-Galveston Subsidence District

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  • 1. 2 3 5 1 2 3 4 9 6 8 7 5 4 3 2 5Subsidence: 1906-1978 1 Contour Interval: 1 ft
  • 2. HGCSD 1992 Regulatory Plan Map 7 4 5 6 3 2Area 1: 10% groundwaterArea 2: 20% groundwaterArea 3: 80% GW reduction by 1995 1Area 4: 80% GW reduction by 2002Area 5: 80% GW reduction by 2005Area 6: 80% GW reduction by 2010Area 7: 80% GW reduction by 2020
  • 3. HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan Map 3 2 1
  • 4. Key Elements - 1999 Regulatory Plan Regulatory Areas & Conversion RequirementsAreas 1 & 2 - Converted Area 1 GW reduced to 10% or less of TWD 3 Area 2 GW reduced to 20% or less of TWD 2Area 3 1 Reduce GW pumpage by 30% by 2010 Reduce GW pumpage by 70% by 2020 Reduce GW pumpage by 80% by 2030Exemptions: Agricultural Irrigation & Economic HardshipsGRPs were due in 2003: 4 main Area 3 GRPS(Houston, NHCRWA, WHCRWA & CHCRWA)Disincentive Fee currently set at $5.00 / 1,000 gallons
  • 5. Major Area 3 Groundwater Reduction Plans (GRPs) Regional Water Authorities and City of Houston Central North West Houston
  • 6. Regional Groundwater Update• Updates population and water demand projections• Recalibrates the parameters of the groundwater and subsidence models• HGSD/FBSD: Updated data and models to evaluate the 1999 & 2003 Regulatory Plans and make any necessary changes to the regulations for the upcoming decades
  • 7. Regional Groundwater Update• Study Area: Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Montgomery, and Brazoria Counties• 5.8 million people in 2010 – nearly 25% of the State’s population• Science and data to evaluate and potentially revise Regulatory Plans• Regulations in study area drive the region’s water supply strategies
  • 8. Diverse Technical Team
  • 9. Key Stakeholders North Channel Water AuthorityCentral Harris CountyRegional Water Authority
  • 10. Reg Plan Update Project Components STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENTPopulation and Subsidence Regulatory Groundwater Scenarios andWater Demand Model Model Update Update Plan UpdateProjections TWDB & REGION H COORDINATION
  • 11. Regional Groundwater Update• TWDB Coordination – Project Participants and Team have met on multiple occasions with TWDB Planning Division and Groundwater Division Staff – Team provides updates and presents technical data – TWDB has provided valuable data and feedback
  • 12. Regional Groundwater Update• TWDB Coordination: Region H / GMA 14 – Project’s County Population Projections to be used in Region H – Region H Water User Group (WUG) populations will be based on Project’s data – Project’s new Houston Area Groundwater Model (HAGM) to become regional model for Region H and Groundwater Management Area 14 (GMA 14)
  • 13. POPULATION PROJECTIONS• Metrostudy – Short term: 2010 – 2020 annual increments – Quarterly housing surveys – Knowledge of future housing development – Considers regional economic outlook, quality of schools, current and future transportation planning, etc. 15
  • 14. POPULATION PROJECTIONS• University of Houston Center for Public Policy – Long term: 2030 – 2070 decadal – Models historical patterns in job creation and employment sub-centers statistically – Projects population based on long term forecast of economic growth and number and location of future jobs 16
  • 15. POPULATION & DEMANDPROJECTIONS• Tract Level Projections – 1,039 tracts in 5 primary counties 17
  • 16. POPULATION PROJECTIONS• Distributed to Census Blocks – H-GAC land use data – 114,200 blocks in 5 primary counties 18
  • 17. POPULATION PROJECTIONS• Other Boundary Conditions used in developing projections – MUDs – Cities – Regional Water Authorities – Regulatory Boundaries – Groundwater Model Grids 19
  • 18. 1 square mile grid
  • 19. Regional Projection Principal Counties: Brazoria, Ft Bend, Galveston, Harris, Montgomery 12,000,000 10,939,614 11,000,000 11,087,333 10,000,000 9,744,351 10,188,115Population 9,000,000 8,577,632 9,357,916 7,804,376 8,627,807 8,000,000 6,934,871 7,635,834 7,000,000 5,738,055 6,674,886 6,000,000 5,738,055 5,000,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Year RWP2011 TWDB ADJUSTED REGIONAL GW UPDATE 21
  • 20. Harris County7,000,000 6,272,3466,000,000 5,974,0685,000,000 4,707,870 5,376,099 4,092,459 5,058,1444,000,000 3,400,5783,000,0002,000,0001,000,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update
  • 21. Galveston County500,000 465,193 447,126450,000 403,820400,000 343,570350,000 377,373 291,309300,000 250,158250,000200,000150,000100,000 50,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update
  • 22. Fort Bend County2,000,000 1,755,1641,800,0001,600,000 1,259,307 1,583,7821,400,0001,200,000 1,095,1231,000,000 881,966 800,000 585,375 600,000 354,452 400,000 200,000 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060 2070 1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update
  • 23. Montgomery County2,500,000 1,946,0632,000,000 1,576,1351,500,000 1,267,916 1,019,2781,000,000 811,252 627,917 455,746 500,000 293,768 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update
  • 24. Brazoria County700,000 648,568 581,368600,000 519,696500,000 463,886400,000 359,935 437,637 411,387 313,166300,000 241,767200,000100,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update
  • 25. POPULATION BY HGSD REGULATORY AREA4,000,000 3,528,1683,500,000 3,382,481 3,233,836 3,076,529 2,905,1583,000,000 2,710,303 2,401,0862,500,000 2,250,944 2,259,472 2,122,327 1,986,1202,000,000 1,848,040 1,702,190 1,566,2791,500,0001,000,000 749,774 779,391 808,575 639,326 682,429 717,406 566,921 500,000 - 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 HGSD_AREA_1 HGSD_AREA_2 HGSD_AREA_3
  • 26. HGSD Area 3 ConversionScenarios Scenario 1 30%(No Conversion After 2010) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 30% 70% 80% Scenario 2(Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 30% 60% 80% Scenario 3 2000 2010 2025 2020 20302035 2040 2050 2060 2070 30% 55% 80% Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070
  • 27. FBSD Area A ConversionComparisons No Conversion assumed Scenario 1 (No Conversion After 2010) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 30% 60% Scenario 2 (Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2014 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070Area A 30% 50% 65% Scenario 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2014 2025 2035 2050 2060 2070 30% 50% Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030 2014 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070
  • 28. FBSD Richmond/Rosenberg Sub-AreaConversion Comparisons 30% 60%Rich/Ros Sub-Area Scenario 2 (Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2016 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070 30% 50% 65% Scenario 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2016 2025 2035 2050 2060 2070 30% Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070
  • 29. Scenario 1 - Growth Beyond 2010 on Groundwater(No Additional Surface Water) • Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD) – No increase in surface water supply beyond 2010 conversions. – No assumed reductions in surface water supply and all future increases in water demand are met with groundwater (Areas 1, 2, and 3). – Does not include Area 3 2020 70% groundwater reductions or 2030 80% groundwater reductions. – Future growth beyond 2010 supplied by groundwater in Areas 1 and 2. • Fort Bend County (FBSD) – Assumes no conversions in 2014, 2016, or 2025. All future growth supplied with groundwater. • Montgomery County (LSGCD) – No groundwater reductions in Montgomery County. • Brazoria County (BCGCD) – No groundwater reductions in Brazoria County.
  • 30. (CI 1.0 ft) SUBSIDENCE
  • 31. Scenario 2 – Current Adopted Regulations• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan) – Area 1 = 90% conversion – Area 2 = 80% conversion – Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2019 – Area 3 = 70% conversion 2020 to 2029 – Area 3 = 80% conversion 2030 and beyond• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan) – Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024 – R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024 – Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 60% conversion 2025 and beyond – Area B remains on 100% groundwater.• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan) – 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per year for 2017 and beyond.• Brazoria County (BCGCD) – No groundwater reduction regulations adopted in Brazoria County.
  • 32. SUBSIDENCE
  • 33. Revised Scenario 3 – Modifications to CurrentAdopted Regulations• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan) – Area 1 = 90% conversion (same as Scenario 2) – Area 2 = 80% conversion (same as Scenario 2) – Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2024 – Area 3 = 60% conversion 2025 to 2034 – Area 3 = 80% conversion 2035 and beyond• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan) – Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2) – R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2) – Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 50% conversion 2025 to 2034 – Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 65% conversion 2035 and beyond – Area B remains on 100% groundwater (same as Scenario 2).• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan) – 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per year for 2017 and beyond (same as Scenario 2).• Brazoria County (BCGCD) – Assume City of Pearland (including ETJ) converts to 50% surface water by 2016 and beyond.
  • 34. SUBSIDENCE
  • 35. CI: 25 feet
  • 36. CI: 25 feet
  • 37. CI: 25 feet
  • 38. CI: 25 feet
  • 39. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites
  • 40. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in FBSD Area A Area B R/R Sub Area
  • 41. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD Area 1
  • 42. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD Area 2
  • 43. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD Area 3
  • 44. Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan• Change to the 2025 Conversion date makes infrastructure construction achievable• Plans for completion of the Luces Bayou Water Transfer will remain on schedule with already existing timetables
  • 45. Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan• Change to the 2025 Conversion date makes future conversion costs more acceptable• Results of changes outlined in Scenario 3 do not create significant impact on future subsidence rates
  • 46. Regulatory Plan 2013 Harris-Galveston Subsidence District 1660 W. Bay Area Blvd. Friendswood TX 77546 (281) 486-1105 www.subsidence.org
  • 47. Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan • No change to Regulatory Area boundaries • No change to Areas 1 & 2 Regulations • Area 1 = 90% conversion • Area 2 = 80% conversion 3 2 1
  • 48. Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan• Area 3 Regulations Updated • 30% conversion current to 2024 • 60% conversion 2025 to 2034 • 80% conversion 2035 and beyond 3 2 1
  • 49. Disincentive FeeDisincentive Fee changed from$5.00 to $7.00 per 1,000 gallons
  • 50. Land-surface subsidence (1915 through 1917) – 2001 determined by GIS techniques in Harris County, Texas by Mark C. Kasmarek; 1906-2000 land-surface contours determined by Robert K. Gabrysch