Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
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Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over

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Presentation at the TWCA mid year conference 2012 www.twca.org ...

Presentation at the TWCA mid year conference 2012 www.twca.org

Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G.
Texas Water Development Board
presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association
Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012

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  • This graph shows our demand for water compared to water we have now under drought of record conditions. So are we ready for the next drought of record? [click] “nope…” The bad news: we’re not ready. We’re not ready now, and we get less readier [sic] in the future. Note: Water we have now is water with current infrastructure, i.e. no additional wells, reservoirs, pipelines, etc. Note: Decreases in “Water we have now” are due primarily to mining water from the Ogalalla but also due to decreases in other aquifers and sedimentation of our reservoirs.

Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over Presentation Transcript

  • Drought: It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over… Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Boardpresented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012
  • or… The Drought Ain’t Over Until John Nielsen-Gammon Sings
  • Drought categories with time100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • Drought categories with time100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • RESERVOIR CONSERVATION STORAGE DATA ( ) -1% from last week
  • Reservoir Storage by Climatic Region (% Full) (Change from 5/30/2012) (+0.03%) (+0.14%) (-0.37%) (-0.71%) (-0.11%) (-0.20%) (-0.40%) (-1.77%) (-1.05%)
  • “Lake” Meredith (Texas share)
  • O.H. Ivie Reservoir
  • Lake Brownwood
  • Lake Travis
  • Falcon Reservoir (Texas share)
  • Total storage in Elephant Butte ~ 2,000,000 acre-feet (totalstorage in Caballo varies during the year from ~350,000acre-feet to 50,000 acre-feet)
  • April 1-30, 2012 30-Day Precipitation 86% Percentage of Normal 60% May 1-30, 2012 45% 74% 99% 38% 60% 42% 101% 44% 55% 51% 47% Percentage of Normal 48% 0%-19% 20%-39% 204% 137% 40%-59% 60%-79% 80%-99% 105% 100%-119% 72% >120% 105% 73%http:// www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php
  • Streamflow Index30-day Mean Flow Conditions
  • Groundwater Level in J-17 Well Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3http://www.saws.org/our_water/aquifer/
  • Public Water Supply Systems Affected by Drought June 6, 2012Total number of Community water systems affected: 1009Total number of active Community water systems in Texas: 4699 RESOLVED (1) WATCH – Voluntary (417) WATCH – Mandatory (592)http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/water_supply/pdw/trot/location.html
  • El Nino/La Nina: 50% chance of El Nino 2nd half 2012
  • Demand v. Supply Demand for waterAcre-feet Water we have now
  • Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Boardpresented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012