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3GAmericas 3GAmericas Presentation Transcript

  • Digital Dividend Pavilion Latin America Wireless Roadmap L ti A i Wi l R d Erasmo Rojas  Director, Latin America & Caribbean 3G Americas 3G A i Mobile World Congress February 21, 2009    Barcelona, Spain
  • Agenda • Latin America wireless developments • Market and technology update gy • 3G HSPA update • Key issues and opportunities • Solving the digital divide with mobile broadband • Conclusion www.3gamericas.org
  • 3G Americas Board of Governors The mission of 3G Americas is to promote, facilitate and advocate for the deployment of the GSM family of technologies including LTE throughout the Americas. Americas www.3gamericas.org
  • Wireless Developments in Latin America • In only ten years, wireless penetration has increased from 13% to 78% • GSM launched in 1998; today 88% of wireless users are served by the family of GSM technologies • Voice centric networks (2G) have migrated to voice + data service networks (3G) • Mobile broadband can bridge the digital divide • Rigid spectrum allocation policies are delaying the offering of needed 3G services www.3gamericas.org
  • Wireless Market in the Western Hemisphere 7.3% Global Subscriptions 4 Billion  North America 18.7% of Total Global 293 Million Subscriptions Latin America 455 Million 455 Million 11.4% Latin America is a growth  engine for 3G in the Americas Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS, January 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Mobile versus Fixed Line Growth Latin America 1997-2009 America, % of Population 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mobile Fixed Sources: ECLAC 2005 and Informa www.3gamericas.org
  • # Wireless Growth in Latin America Subscriptions (Millions) (Milli ) 1998-2008 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Deployment of GSM family of technologies in Latin America 2008 2006 2003 HSPA UMTS/ HSDPA 2001 EDGE GPRS 1998 GSM Source : Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS, January 2009  www.3gamericas.org
  • Economic and Industry Indicators GDP (US$) % Wireless Penetration 106% 96% 91% 79% 71% 74% 61% $19 $18 ARPU $17 $17 $13 $9 $10 S$ US$ Latin America Avg. = GDP $8,484.00 - ARPU $16 - Penetration 78% www.3gamericas.org
  • 2008 Wireless Landscape Ten Largest Latin American Markets g #6 #1 Peru (19 M) Brazil (150 M) • VIVO 30% MARKET SHARES • Movistar 58% • Claro 39% • Claro 25% Cl #2 #7 Mexico (78 M) Chile (16 M) • Telcel 72% • Movistar 43% • M i t Movistar 20% • E t l PCS 38% Entel #3 #8 Argentina (44 M) Guatemala (12 M) • Claro 35% • Tigo 47% • Movistar 34% • Claro 34% #4 #9 Colombia (41 M) • Comcel 65% Ecuador (11 M) • Movistar 25% • Porta 71% • Movistar 27% #5 Venezuela (28 M) #10 • Movilnet 41% El Salvador (7 M) • Movistar 38% • Tigo 36% • Claro 26% Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies and Informa Telecoms & Media, December 2008 www.3gamericas.org
  • Wireless Technology Growth Latin America 2007-2008 2007 2008 Subscribers By Technology 450 400 404  350 Million 300 307  Million 4Q 4Q 250 2007 2008 200 150 100 50 53 M 42 M 21 M 11M 0 GSM/HSPA Others                    Others CDMA (TDMA, iDEN) Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS, January 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • 2008 Technology Market Share Others CDMA GSM Percentage Total Subscribers 89% 150 M 88% 78 M 97% 44 M 98% 41 M 43% 28 M 91% 19 M Subscribers  (Millions) Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS, January 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Evolution of TDMA, CDMA and OFDMA Systems 13
  • UMTS-HSPA Deployments in Latin America and the Caribbean Panama Puerto Rico Dominican Republic • Movistar • AT&T • Claro • Claro Cl Mexico • Telcel Aruba Jamaica • Movistar Nicaragua • SETAR • Claro • Claro Guatemala • Cl Claro Venezuela • Tigo • Movistar Brazil Honduras • Brasil Telecom El Salvador • Claro • Claro • Claro • Tigo • CTBC • Tigo • Oi • Sercomtel Se comtel • TIM Brasil Colombia • VIVO • Comcel • Movistar Peru Paraguay • Tigo Bolivia • Claro • Claro • Tigo Ecuador • Telecom Personal • Porta • Tigo Chile 41 UMTS-HSPA • Entel Movil Argentina Uruguay • Claro • Claro • ANCEL Networks in • Movistar • Telecom Personal • Claro Service in 20 • Movistar • Movistar countries Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies and Informa Telecoms & Media, Dec 2008 www.3gamericas.org
  • New opportunities Latin America & Caribbean • Low ARPU: Average US $ 16 • Mobile penetration: 78% • Average data contribution (VAS) to ARPU: o 14% Vs. 23% in North America • Low 3G UMTS-HSPA penetration: UMTS HSPA o 1%, but already 41 UMTS-HSPA networks in 20 countries • Limited broadband access • Low PC penetration • 1700/2100 700 and 2500 MH spectrum b i 1700/2100, d MHz t being considered for advanced wireless services www.3gamericas.org
  • Data Contribution to ARPU 3Q 2008 Data contribution to ARPU has reached  an average of 14% in Latin America and  VOICE 23% in North America DATA 31% 27% 18% 16% 11% 10% 8% 5% Source : Informa Telecoms & Media, Merrill Lynch, December 2008  www.3gamericas.org
  • 2007 Broadband Penetration Source: ITU, 2007 www.3gamericas.org
  • Total Licensed Spectrum for Mobile Services MHz (mid-2008) Services, 353 358 294 265 200 170 140 120 120 Source: Arthur D. Little Spectrum Caps Report, Jan 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Understand Spectrum Caps and Future Wireless Demand Current Number of operators per market required to meet future Spectrum Cap, broadband demand under current spectrum caps, as a Country MHz function of total spectrum requirements in MHz 430 (Citel) ( ) 540 (U.K.) ( ) 720 (ITU) ( ) Argentina 50 9 11 15 Brazil 80 6 7 9 Chile 60 8 9 12 Colombia 40 11 14 18 Mexico M i 60 8 9 12 Source: Arthur D. Little Spectrum Caps Report, Jan 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Operator Spectrum Holdings Country/Region/ Spectrum Holding per Operator, Operator MHz Spectrum Cap p p Operator EU Average 92.6 No Germany 65 No UK 82.2 No France 138.5 No Italy ta y 72.7 No o Spain 100.6 No Sweden 92 No Denmark D k 118.4 118 4 No N US – Verizon National Average ~89 No* US – AT&T National Average ~96 No* US – T-Mobile National Average ~75 No* *Includes results of 2008 700 MHz auction; FCC has current screening guideline of 95MHz Source: Arthur D. Little Spectrum Caps Report, Jan 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Selected Spectrum Caps in Latin America Spectrum y Country Comments Cap, MHz C MH Has recently announced it will license 1.7/2.1 GHz band in Argentina 50 2009 Increased f from 50 to 80 for the recent (end-2007) new 3G f ( ) G Brazil 80 spectrum auction. Planning structure of 2.6 GHz band January 2009 Supreme Court decision of maintaining 60 MHz Cap excludes existing operators with 60 and 55 MHz Chile 60 from new 3G 1.7/2.1 GHz spectrum auction. Planning structure of 700 MHz and 2.6 GHz band This cap is even tighter than those in other countries in p g Colombia 40 Latin America. The 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) band has been reserved for 3G broadband services Licenses for some 1900 MHz spectrum awards cannot be Mexico 65 issued b i d because of C f Competition C titi Commission’s 35 MH i i ’ MHz band-specific cap Source: Telefonica, National Regulators’ Websites, Comision Federal de Competencia (Mexico) ; Arthur D Little Spectrum Report, Jan 2009 www.3gamericas.org
  • Mobile Broadband Success Factors: Bridging the Divide • Coverage • High speeds • Multiple low cost devices • Applications and content A li ti d t t • Pricing www.3gamericas.org
  • Application and ServicesTrends SMS = 75‐80% of VAS revenues  Wallpapers W ll Streaming Music Mobile TV M www.3gamericas.org
  • The Internet in Your Hands: Ingredient for Success From 2007-2012 Worldwide Smartphone OS-Based phones will grow a more than 30% annual rate Source: In-Stat, Nov 2007 Global unit volume sales of smartphones exceeds the unit sales of laptops! Source: In-Stat, Nov 2007 In Stat, www.3gamericas.org
  • Top Ten Mobile Websites: Access for All Millions Source: The Nielsen Company, October 2008 www.3gamericas.org
  • Conclusion • Latin America is a growth engine for 3G in the Americas • More spectrum is needed to bridge the digital divide and offer new mobile broadband services • Low cost devices and smart phones coupled with new spectrum are key ingredients to bridging the digital divide in the region • GSM/HSPA/LTE is the future proof roadmap to benefit users due to the economies of scale and continuous technology evolution www.3gamericas.org
  • Comments? Questions? Erasmo Rojas Director, Latin America & Caribbean Director Latin America & Caribbean 3G Americas  erasmo.rojas@3gamericas.org