Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013 - Bob Bunnik - Market Overwiev

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Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013 - Bob Bunnik - Market Overwiev

  1. 1. 1 MARKET OVERVIEW Bob Bunnik
  2. 2. 2 NL is a concentrated and competitive market: 4 out of 5 players have a converged strategy Market: Consolidation Cable: ‘mobility’ through WiFi, plus MVNO+limited own-roll-out Full-MVNO on TMNL, transition to MNO M&A FttH players ‘Quad Play’ ‘Convergence Strategy’ Fixed broadband Mobile (3 MNOs & their main brands)
  3. 3. 3 Convergence from a customer perspective Fixed and mobile are converging, providing seamless access on any device and network. Partnerships are key to enhance the value proposition for both consumer and business. Services DevicesAccess Residential: ‘Packaging’ convergence Business: Real technical convergence True Convergence is about providing seamless access and convenience (‘one-stop-shop’)
  4. 4. 4 Mobile market price levels: NL vs. EU • The Netherlands mobile market behaves as a protected market with very high price levels. “774% difference in Phone call prices across the EU” “Up to 100x difference In Data-only tariff volume allowances in EU27” EU Mobile Data price comparison EU Mobile Voice price comparison Sources: REWHEEL (2013), EU27 Mobile Data Cost Competitiveness Report and EU Digital Agenda Scorecard 2012 (Aug. 2013) Average cost per minute (€ cents) in mobile communications, 2011
  5. 5. 5 Mobile market: 4G positioned as premium The Dutch market is moving towards flat-fee Voice & SMS but still with high price levels. VodafoneKPN
  6. 6. 6 Mobile market shares and value Stable market share development, growth within mobile data Revenue Market Shares 2005-2012 (x%) NL Mobile Service Revenue’s 2012-2017 (mEUR) Sources: Tele2 research and TelecomPaper Q2-2013 3503 3230 2990 2812 2647 2490 2294 2230 2288 2377 2493 2626 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Voice Non-Voice 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 KPN T-Mobile Vodafone
  7. 7. 7 A 4G-centric mobile operator could capture most value at lowest cost. Mobile handset market development 35% SIM-only May 2013, up from 26% May 2012 NL: 66% Very high smartphone penetration in the Netherlands SIM-only sales continuous to increase Source: Comscore Data Gem
  8. 8. 8 The addressable market for DSL is declining with clear growth in fiber A technology shift in fixed broadband 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Internet Internet VoIP Internet (VoIP) TV Internet (VoIP/ Mobile) TV Internet (Mobile) OTT-TV xDSL FttH 2016 45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43% 7% 10% 13% 17% 20% 23% 48% 45% 42% 39% 36% 34% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cable FttH DSL Bandwidth demand pushed by TV & Video Fixed Broadband penetration: a technology shift Sources: TelecomPaper (Q2-2013), Dutch Broadband
  9. 9. 9 Fixed business services shift to mobile & IP Digital leased lines IP VPN Ethernet services Internet access IP voice Traditional fixed voice 2015 100% 2% 19% 13% 20% 21% 25% 2010 100% 5% 19% 6% 21% 8% 41% Fixed services Mobile services 2015 5.249 mEUR 45% 55% 2010 5.268 mEUR 54% 46% Business market value is also shifting to mobile and ‘All-IP’. FttO regulation more favorable for alternative operators. Dutch enterprise telecom services Fixed Services Revenue split Sources: Tele2; Gartner, 2011; IDC, 2011; Cap Gemini Consulting analysis
  10. 10. 10  Cloud/Hosted PBX is growing  Fixed and Mobile are integrating  Security is of increased importance Increasing ICT complexity  Decline in Voice usage  Anywhere, anytime access on any device  Fixed and Mobile convergence ‘Consumerisation’: from ‘investing’ to ‘using’ (Cloud) Key trends in the business segment Business market converges into ‘ICT’ business with increased attention for security. Trends affecting the LE marketTrends affecting the SME market
  11. 11. 11 Key take-away: Significant growth potential in mobile Seamless fixed-mobile operators will be able to capture market value: 4G and fiber will be pivotal. Residential growth in Mobile Data & Fixed Broadband on Fiber B2B growth in Hosted Voice and Mobile, Fiber to the office increasingly important
  12. 12. 12 Q&A PART 1 Bob Bunnik

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