IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures
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IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures

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IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures

IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures

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    IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 - Key Figures Presentation Transcript

    • Energy TechnologyPerspectives 2010 Key graphs © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario ENERGY Gt CO2 60 Baseline emissions 57 GtTECHNOLOGY 55 CCS 19%PERSPECTIVES 50 2010 Renewables 17% 45 Scenarios & 40 Nuclear 6% Strategies to 2050 35 30 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End-use fuel and electricity 10 efficiency 38% 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy- related CO2 emissions substantially. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario 8 000 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 Mtoe ENERGY 7 000TECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 6 000 2010 5 000 -27% Scenarios & 4 000 -36% Strategies 3 000 to 2050 2 000 1 000 0 By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios 60 ENERGY Gt CO2TECHNOLOGY 50PERSPECTIVES Other 2010 40 Buildings Scenarios & Transport Strategies 30 to 2050 Industry 20 Other transformation Power generation 10 0 2007 2030 2050 2030 2050 Baseline BLUE Map Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Decarbonising the electricity sector 50 PWh Other ENERGY 45TECHNOLOGY SolarPERSPECTIVES 40 Wind 2010 35 Biomass+CCS Scenarios & 30 Biomass and waste Strategies to 2050 Hydro 25 Nuclear 20 Natural gas+CCS 15 Natural gas Oil 10 Coal+CCS 5 Coal 0 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High Ren 2050 Nuclear 2050 2050 A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels combined with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050 needed to achieve the BLUE Map scenario ENERGY Present rate Gap to reach BLUE MapTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES Coal-fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW) 2010 Gas-fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW) Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW) Scenarios & Strategies Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam to 2050 Biomass plants 200 plants (50 MW) Wind-onshore 12 000 turbines (4 MW) Wind-offshore 3 600 turbines (4 MW) Geothermal 45 units (100 MW) Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW) 0 10 20 30 40 50 GW/ yr Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon electricity generating technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050 in the BLUE Map scenario vs. Baseline scenario Greater integration of 2.50 renewables ENERGY Gt CO2 / yrTECHNOLOGY 2.25 Facilitation of electric vehiclesPERSPECTIVES 2.00 and plug-in electric vehicles 2010 0.34- 0.69 1.75 Energy savings from peak load Scenarios & management Strategies 1.50 to 2050 Continuous commissioning of 1.25 service sector loads 0.31- 0.62 1.00 0.00- 0.01 Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs 0.75 0.01- 0.05 0.07- 0.27 Reduced line losses (voltage 0.50 control) 0.03- 0.25 0.25 Direct feedback on energy usage 0.09- 0.27 0.00 Direct reductions Enabled reductions Smart grids can reduce CO2 emissions both through better management of the grid and by facilitating the deployment of low- © OECD/IEA - 2010 carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.
    • Additional investment needs, BLUE Map scenario vs. Baseline scenario 800 ENERGY 700TECHNOLOGY 600 USD billion / yrPERSPECTIVES Buildings 500 2010 400 Transport Scenarios & 300 Strategies Industry to 2050 200 100 Power sector 0 2010-2030 2030-2050 2010-2030 2010-2030 2030-2050 2030-2050 2030-2050 2010-2030 OECD Other major Emerging Least developed economies economies countries Over the period to 2050, most of the additional investment in low- carbon technologies will be needed in non-OECD countries. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by technology ENERGY Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenarioTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 200 200 million sales/ yr 2010 180 180 Hydrogen fuel cell Scenarios & 160 160 Hydrogen hybrid Strategies 140 140 Electricity to 2050 120 120 CNG and LPG 100 100 Plug-in hybrid diesel 80 80 Plug-in hybrid gasoline 60 60 Hybrid diesel 40 40 Hybrid gasoline 20 20 Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region 60 ENERGY Gt CO2 55 Baseline emissions 57 Gt Other Non-OECD 19%TECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 50 Other major economies 14% 2010 45 India 12% Scenarios & 40 Strategies 35 China 27% to 2050 30 Other OECD 10% 25 OECD Europe 7% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt USA 11% 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries. © OECD/IEA - 2010
    • Environmental co-impacts of electricity generation technologies ENERGY Life Cycle Impacts (Pre- and Post-Generation) Power Generation Impacts CO2TECHNOLOGY Energy EmissionsPERSPECTIVES Technologies Air Water Land Air Water Land t/MWh 2010 Coal - USC Baseline Technology for Relative Assessments Below 0.777 Scenarios & Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e / Strategies Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l to 2050 Coal - Biomass Uncertai n Uncertai n 0.622 Va ri a bl e / Nega tive Nega tive Nega tive Nega tive Mi ni ma l Coal - CCS Uncertai n 0.142 Va ri a bl e / Mi ni ma l Mi ni ma l Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l Coal - IGCC Uncertai n 0.708 Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive NGCC 0.403 Va ri a bl e / Va ri a bl e / Pos i tive Pos i tive Nega tive Pos i tive Nuclear Uncertai n Uncertai n 0.005 Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Nega tive Mi ni ma l Solar - CSP 0.017 Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Mi ni ma l Solar - PV 0.009 Va ri a bl e / Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Pos i tive Wind Uncertai n 0.002 Most renewable technologies have positive environmental co- impacts compared to current coal ultra-super critical plant. © OECD/IEA - 2010